Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Susana And Monica Fall Flat As Rubio Exits; Trump-Kasich '16? Plus: ABQ Mayor '17: Our Exclusive List Of Early Possiblles, Plus: More On Bern And Hill NM Straw Vote Debate 

Susana & Monica
Marco Rubio was driven out of the GOP presidential race last night when he fell on a Florida sword sharpened by winner Donald Trump and giving a couple of NM politicos mild black eyes.

Less than two weeks ago, hoping to stop the Trump steamroller, Gov. Martinez endorsed establishment candidate Rubio. As a result of Rubio's surrender, her national brand takes a hit.

ABQ GOP State Rep. Monica Youngblood recently signed up as chair of Rubio's NM campaign, but her first foray into the presidential arena ends badly. Rubio won't be around for the June 7 NM primary.

Still, Hispanic Republicans are going to be important this cycle--one way or the other--and we'll probably see this pair resurface when their wounds heal. For now, however, the Guv and Youngblood might want to hold their fire on Trump or else risk more political backfire. . .

We've been keeping tabs on the national action with veteran analyst and campaign consultant Greg Payne who has been in the game for 25 years. A former R turned Dem, he served in the legislature as well as on the ABQ city council. Watching the results last night, he was sticking to his prediction that Trump will be the nominee--"the GOP establishment did it to themselves"--and that Gov. Kasich of Ohio--who won his home state Tuesday--is his likely running mate. "Ohio is critical in the Electoral College and it looks as if the pieces are starting to fall in place for a Trump-Kasich ticket," argued Payne.


And the Bern was definitely put on ice Tuesday as Hillary ran the table on the Vermont senator, taking a big leap toward the Dem prez nomination. She looks good in New Mexico, no matter the GOP nominee. Hispanics warm to her as do older voters. A potential problem? Turnout. R's are hoping that signs of boredom and a lack of enthusiasm for Clinton among the young might keep some voters home. That could help the R's in their battle for legislative seats here, their real goal this year.

Back on Susana, state Dems were doing their best to pin the Guv to the wall, firing off this Election Night missive in her direction:

With Marco Rubio out of the race, it’s time for Governor Martinez to come clean on whether she will support Donald Trump as the Republican nominee. Governor Martinez has been hiding from reporters on Trump. New Mexicans deserve an honest answer on whether our governor stands with Donald Trump and his offensive remarks and out-of-the-mainstream policy positions."


Colón and McKee
The political news continues now from New Mexico's most influential political report as we update the 2017 race for ABQ Mayor. More candidates are eyeing a jump into the fray and we have the exclusive news. . .

Former Dem BernCo County Commissioner Deanna Archuleta is one of them. The progressive Democrat is also a former US Dept. of Interior assistant secretary, adding muscle to her political bona fides. And there never has been a woman mayor in the state's big city.

Terry Brunner is another progressive Dem who continues to give the race a serious look. He says it's still early, pointing out that the City Charter does not allow candidates to raise money until January. But the former top aide to Dem US Senator Bingaman and the current NM director of of the USDA Rural Development agency is seen in Dem circles as a serious player--if he plays.

Friends of former NM Dem Party Chairman Brian Colón say he is chomping at the bit to get into the contest, He could be the first one to make a formal announcement. Known as one of the top glad-handers in La Politica, he will work to outwork the field.

Dem City Councilor Ken Sanchez is hungry for another mayoral run and friends say he is ready to go. And don't count out State Auditor Tim Keller. He seemed to be falling off the mayoral radar but his allies say he continues to seriously weigh a candidacy. He would not have to give up the auditor's job to do it. His term in Santa Fe runs through '18.

On the GOP side, we have a new name to contemplate. State CYFD Secretary Monique Jacobson is that name. She's the daughter of former ABQ City Councilor Sally Mayer so she has a ready tutor (and, hey, Deanna, why can't the first female ABQ mayor be an R?). Jacobson was even mentioned here a while back as a possible Guv contender. She's won kudos for her cabinet service at CYFD and before that as Tourism Director.

Other GOP possibles are advertising executive Steve McKee whose firm just signed a big contract with Republican Mayor Berry's City Hall (it's nice to have friends in high places). BernCo County Commissioner Wayne Johnson is still looking at a run and GOP City Councilor Dan Lewis appears to be inching toward one. We'll see.

And don't completely rule out Mayor Berry. Republican Alligators say when he realizes that his dream of running for the '18 GOP gubernatorial nomination is unrealistic, he just might seek a third term as Mayor. Hmm...

Of course, the field is always big at the starting line and many names will drop before the race is fully engaged. It will take $1 million or more for the contest, assuming you don't go for public financing which won't even give you half that amount.

The contenders are quietly donning their running shoes and we're watching their tracks for you.


Bernie Sanders' NM supporters were upset that the presidential preference straw poll at last Saturday's Dem Pre-Primary convention was cancelled by the Party. Sanders supporter Steve Cabiedes outlined the grievance here this week. Now former Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, a Hillary Clinton supporter, comes with a counterpoint:

Saturday was about our local candidates who needed a nomination from the Party, not about the Presidential race. There were 1,100 people in the room and a handful of them booed the decision by the Chairwoman.. . .Her statement that "the poll that counts is on June 7, Primary Election Day" was met with applause. . . Many of the Sanders supporters were volunteers and not delegates--but saying the majority of delegates were for Sanders is a big stretch. To be fair, there were delegates there for both Bernie and Hillary in large numbers, but the hypothetical of "Sanders would win if the votes were cast" has little basis in fact. He probably did win the sticker war but in my experience, that doesn't count for much. Some Democrats were wearing both. The Sanders folks decided the way to punish the straw vote decision was to vote down the platform--something that happened at the end of the day when many folks were gone--a 3 point margin is fun but not earthshaking--and some Hillary supporters voted no as well. Platforms are never exciting and this one was no different. Back to the drawing board.

Top analysis of the presidential contest, exclusive news on the ABQ mayoral race and exclusive coverage of that big Dem prez debate at their convention. That's why New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan is the go to place--the #1 place--for the news you want--year in and year out.

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