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Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Juicy News Tidbits From Across La Politica, Plus: One Week To Go In ABQ Mayor Chase; Candidates Load Up On TV; We Break It Down, Also: Borrego Makes Aragon Ache In City Council Clash  

The ABQ mayoral race, which has just one week to go from today, has crowded out the other news of La Politica so let's check out some of that action from the state's top political sources.

United States Senator Susana Martinez? Okay, we just heard your jaw hit the floor so we'll explain. There's been polling conducted apparently to sniff around on that prospect and one of our GOP Alligators says it was done by Public Opinion Strategies, the employer of pollster Nicole McCleskey who is the wife of Jay McCleskey, the Governor's political strategist who probably would like nothing better than to run Susana for the Senate. After all, the commissions on the media buy--win or lose--would be most lucrative.

But Martinez's approval numbers are in the dumpster, probably in the low 30's like Republican ABQ Mayor Berry. And insiders say Susana is not personally shouting out any intention to run for the seat held by Dem Martin Heinrich who is up for re-election next year. But her PACS have plenty of money to spend before she heads for the exits at the end of next year so why not titillate the political community?

Betting line on her running---11 to one against.

Still on the GOP beat, a GOP Alligator with a nose for news writes;

Joe, put Alamogordo State Rep. Yvette Harrell down as a serious contender for the GOP nomination for the southern congressional seat that Steve Pearce is leaving to run for Governor. She is getting some traction.

Okay, she's on the list marked "Serious."

In the embryonic race for the Dem nomination for Governor, former NM first lady Clara Apodaca writes in to let us know of an endorsement for her candidate son Jeff Apodaca. Here it is:

My name is Lilly Ledbetter. You probably know me as a fierce advocate for women’s equality and the inspiration for the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2009. I am honored to endorse Jeff Apodaca for Governor of New Mexico because he is the only candidate talking about pay equity for New Mexico women and reinstating the New Mexico Commission on the Status of Women.

That's a decent endorsement for Apodaca who faces a rough campaign against Dem front-runner Michelle Lujan Grisham as well as Las Cruces State Senator Joe Cervantes. (Thanks for the heads-up, Clara.)

Alright, back to the ABQ mayoral chase. . .

Will someone ask Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales if he is angling to become the next ABQ chief of police? Inquiring minds want to know.

Will someone ask Jon Zaman, director of services for the ABQ City Council, if he might have his eye on the position of Chief Administrative Officer under a new Democratic mayor? Do tell, Jon.

ARAGON ACHES

Speaking of the council, out on the westside Republican insiders are informing that attorney Robert Aragon will likely not garner 50 percent of the vote on election night and will face a run-off election in November against Dem Cynthia Borrego who has run an aggressive campaign. Political newcomer Catherine Trujillo is also in the contest and splitting up votes and making it difficult for Aragon to get to the 50 mark.

Aragon is a longtime Susana favorite and is getting help from Jay but Borrego, who runs a land development and consulting company and is an elected member of the local flood control board, has spotlighted Aragon's past ethical baggage and is making life rough for him. (See the flyer we posted here.) Still, Borrego has a long way to go. The district, which is being vacated by Councilor Lewis, will still lean Republican in the run-off.

HE MADE IT 

Heard on the street:

Joe, multimillionaire and mayoral candidate Ricardo Chaves has finally made it into the one percent---the Journal poll gives him exactly one percent of the vote.

KELLER WEAPON

Mayoral candidate Tim Keller has a not so secret weapon--his wife Elizabeth Keller. She was on the inside of the 2008 Obama campaign in the state--the one that turned things inside out with new voter modeling and outreach. Elizabeth Keller was on the Obama field staff in Sandoval County. Now she's using that Obama knowledge and helping to head up her husband's ground game which is the most comprehensive of the eight contenders.

Dem Brian Colón is locked in a battle for second place with Dan Lewis and a coveted spot in the November run-off. He may be behind in the ground game but he's trying to make up for lost time by launching phone banks and neighborhood canvassing. We say this is a fight to the political death because both Colón and Lewis are very likely finished if they lose.

One thing Liz Keller may have helping her: Very low turnout. Unless we get a big pop on Election Day the early voting numbers point to just that. The lower the vote goes the more important those get-out-the-vote efforts will be. As our Gators reported here when we first broached the subject, low turnout would seem to favor Keller and Lewis, the Republican who has Legacy Church troops backing him.

TV TALK 


Now exclusive TV analysis and info for you on what the candidates are spending on the tube. We call on veteran New Mexico Dem political consultant and media maven Chris Brown, now semiretired in Santa Fe, to do the spade work. And, boy, does he:

Joe, Republicans Lewis and Johnson are battling for the Fox News vote on Albuquerque cable. Johnson has spent more than $5,000 to place over 200 spots. Lewis is running 300 spots on FNC, plus a few on the sports nets, at a cost of more than $8,500.

The biggest user of cable TV is Brian Colón, and not only on CNN and MSNBC to reach Democrats. He’s also booked eleven entertainment channels that mostly target women viewers. Colón’s total cable buy is over $30,000 for 1,700 thirty second spots airing from late August through the election.

Ricardo Chaves has placed nearly $12,000 in cable buys for the final three weeks: 438 spots over twelve news, sports and entertainment nets.

FOX, KOB, KOAT, KRQE--Those are the four  broadcast TV stations purchased by the candidates. No candidate has bought Univision’s KLUZ-41. This would surely require Spanish spot production.

Here are the total TV buys for the candidates in order of spending. It does not include any buys not yet up on the FCC site:

--$308,000 Colon from 8/28-10/2, 1,323 thirty second spots.

--$153,000 Johnson from 9/13-10/3, 612 spots; 30 sec

--$136,000 Keller, 9/5-10/2, 852 spots; 15 sec

--$65,000 Lewis 9/12-25 (week 9/26-10/3 not up yet on FCC site), 265 spots 30 sec

--$27,000 Chaves 9/15-24, rest not up if bought, 94 spots; 30 sec

--$23,000 Garcia-Holmes, 9/5-10/2, all on KRQE/13, 88 spots;  30 sec

The total for the campaign thus far that has gone to the four TV network affiliates is $688,000 pre-tax and nearly $750,000 when tax is included.


Late info on Lewis' final TV week: He tells us that he will have a "heavy buy" because "I raised more money the last two reporting periods than the other candidates."

We know of one element of that "heavy buy" Lewis talked of. It's for $16,500 on KOAT.
We're posting the entire contract for that buy so you media mavens who want to drill down on what the candidates are paying for the programs they're putting ads on can see for yourself.

One tidbit: Factoring in the lower political rate, some of the morning news on Channel 7 now goes for more than the 10 p.m. news. Times change.

BROWN ANALYSIS.

We asked Chris, who has been in the game for over 45 years, for further analysis:

Counting cable and tax, it appears that Colón decided to spend half of his reported budget of $700,000 on TV. Keller's buy is respectable, given the limits of public financing, and he may be emphasizing the ground game in his budget.

Note that Keller has only 6.5 spots for every 10 of Colón’s, but for half the money. Keller is paying 65% of the :30 rate for his :15 second spots.  In the recent past, scattered :15’s were 75% of the :30 price so that's a price reduction in Keller's favor. 

And there you have the mayoral TV game for Election '17 from deep on the inside--just like you Alligators like.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017

 
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