If 50 percent is the magic number in a two way race, what is it in an eight way face-off like we have for mayor of ABQ? The question started to surface over the weekend as there were still no signs that front-runner and Democrat Tim Keller would fall back.

Analysts, Alligators, wall-leaners and hangers-on seem in agreement that the job now for Keller is to do all he can to break out of his base vote of 25 to 30 percent and look at 33 percent as his magic number. Why? Because that's a psychologically important full third of the vote in a crowded eight person field.

Also, if the second place finisher to Keller is trounced by double digits, it could make the November run-off election that much easier for the state auditor. The reason is that Keller could argue he has somewhat of a mandate with that kind of vote total. Business interests and Republicans that have attacked him in this campaign might be more reluctant to go all-in against him if he entered the run-off perceived as the mainstream choice. Keller could hasten that judgment by quickly moving from the left to the center. After all, he should know how to do that. He was once a Republican and investment banker.

So it's not just making the run-off, it's how much rope the second place finisher gives Keller to run. If they can keep him in sight by finishing behind by at least single digits, they will at least have an argument that the race is not over.

WHERE IT STANDS

Political operatives say the campaign tracking data does not show any severe damage to Keller from that heavy hit piece against him and financed in part by the developers of the west side Santolina project. In fact, they see Keller trending up and into the high 20's. But there's still time for another hit.

Santolina developer Jeff Garrett, who gave $30,000 to the anti-Keller PAC, has had his hands full since his involvement went public. A pro-Keller PAC urged supporters to flood Garrett's business phone with protest calls and they have.

Garrett hasn't been shy, authoring this op-ed on why he backed that high voltage TV charge that accused Keller of coddling child molesters. In return he was scorned by the Keller forces who derided Garrett as an "Arizona developer" who is motivated by greed and has brought city politics to a new low. Garrett comes with this piece on the reaction he's received and doubles down on his charges:

I attended Sandia High School and UNM. After working in Albuquerque’s real estate community, I moved to Los Angeles to further my education at the University of Southern California (USC). Unfortunately after graduating from USC, New Mexico’s economy could not provide the opportunities my young family needed, so we now live in Arizona along-side many others from New Mexico. Since my Op-Ed I have received hateful, threatening emails and phone calls from some of Mr. Keller’s supporters. . .Don’t fall for the distraction strategy of shoot&nbsp the messenger. Tim Keller voted yes to protect sex offenders over the community, not Jeff Garrett. . .

As for the Keller forces they argue that if anyone thought the charges against their candidate had merit, they will think twice now that the police union--the ABQ Police Officers Association--has endorsed Keller's candidacy. "We don't think they endorse people who support sex offenders," said one Keller supporter.

JOURNAL PLAYS

Has the ABQ Journal ever endorsed two candidates in a mayoral race? Not in our memory and we go back to the beginning in 1974. So why the dual endorsement of Republican Dan Lewis and Democrat Brian Colón? They say because its almost certain there will be a two person run-off as no candidate is expected to get 50 percent of the vote. Really? Let's take a closer look. . .

By endorsing Colón they are signaling he is the Democrat they can live with in the mayor's office and it also reveals some desperation that Keller could be headed to that office.

Lewis gets a GOP bounce but not the full one he would have gotten if he alone secured the endorsement. This editorial makes Colón palatable to the GOP NE Heights, further splitting the GOP vote. That's not good for Lewis but it could help Colón get in the run-off by getting more R votes.

The other oddity about the endorsement is that they call Colón a "progressive Democrat" who is friendly toward business. Colon and his BFF Attorney General Balderas have never been known as "progressives" in the Democratic Party. They are middle of the road and sometimes conservative Democrats who have often flirted with the Republicans.

Remember Colón's initial reluctance to say he would fire APD Chief Eden only to reverse himself? And remember when Colón and Balderas wrote that letter to the state Senate Rules Committee supporting Republican Matt Chandler, a member of the Governor's political machine, for appointment to the UNM Regents?

Steve Cabiedes, a Bernie Sanders Democrat, summed it up this way:

Sure, Brian is a progressive--a progressive Republican.

The paper is being too clever by half if it thinks its endorsement--not read generally by anyone left of center--is going to persuade anyone to dump Tim for Brian.

The bottom line is that the business community and the newspaper fear Keller because they have no control over him, but the rest of the city, as witnessed by the failure of the Santolina ads, doesn't seem very concerned, at least not yet.

Does the newspaper, the Economic Forum, the Chamber of Commerce and NAIOP really have the fight (and money) in them to mount an all-out campaign against Keller if he wins by double-digits Election Night? Maybe they unleash Jay McCleskey and try to look the other way, but. . .

The fact that the Lang family (owners of the Journal) were not willing to issue a single endorsement for Colón and fully join the fight against Keller right now tells the tale.

They know Lewis would be the underdog if he claimed second place and that Colón is the real Keller threat. So why hold back? Because they were petrified of offending their GOP readership and advertisers by endorsing only a Dem? Yes, but they still want to take Keller out with Colón if he nabs second.

There's not a lot of money in this town in the post-recession era and what's left is running scared. And that's how you get a confused dual endorsement in a mayoral race.

TV TALK

The critical TV campaign has been in full swing for two weeks now so where's Brian Colón's new ad? He's been running the same spot for two weeks and political pros expected him to come with a new one last Thursday. He didn't.

Colón has flatlined in the polls and his media critics say he needs to shake up his TV theme. He still has not addressed the voters of this city directly, unlike the TV ads for Keller and Republicans Dan Lewis and Wayne Johnson.

Colón is flooding the mailboxes seeking undecided voters, especially women. That should help but the former NM Dem Party chairman got his initial momentum by rolling out an endorsement from Attorney General Balderas. That consolidated a lot of Hispanic support for Colón who is a Hispanic of Puerto Rican descent. He then pivoted to the semi-biographical ad that is now running but it doesn't seem to be doing the trick. We wonder, along with you, what he will do for his final act.

The fight for second is fully joined, with Colón, Lewis and long shot BernCo Commissioner Johnson all in a position to take the prize but Colón still has the best opportunity because Lewis, Johnson and second tier GOP candidate Ricardo Chaves are slicing and dicing the GOP vote like a ripe tomato.

While Colón has the "best opportunity" the momentum for the second place victory may be switching to Lewis in the late going, said a number of Alligators who pointed to his superior air campaign and the Journal endorsement sucking the oxygen out of Wayne Johnson's campaign.

Lewis comes with a new TV spot that sticks to the only issue his TV ads have highlighted--the crime epidemic. In this one, Lewis attacked the city's judges and blames them for the problem. Here's the transcript:

We need to hold accountable district court judges in this city. We have district court judges that are letting career criminals out of jail, if someone can stab someone 27 times on a bus and a district court judge lets that criminal out of jail, as your mayor I won't let criminals define our city. Career criminals in jail, new police leadership. That's not just an empty promise. I'm Dan Lewis. That's what we'll do.

The judges are historically unpopular and a convenient whipping boy for Lewis who needs something to push him up and into a presumed run-off with Keller. The spot is hyperbole but it appeals to the R's Lewis needs to break away from Johnson.

EARLY VOTE 

So what about the early vote?  Don't fret. We're on it like a wet blanket, courtesy of Rick Abraham of Data Flux.

The city clerk did not release over the weekend the totals for the early vote cast on Friday, but as of the end of Thursday Abraham reports a total of 12,677 votes have been cast.

Folks, that is light---very light--and we have some catching up to do if we are going to get anywhere near the 80,000 we initially thought would cast ballots for mayor.

Six early voting days are still to be counted. And if we expect at least 40 percent of the vote to be cast early, we're going to have to get to 32,000 early votes to reach that mark. Early voting ends Friday. Info on where to vote early is here.

There's much to discuss and we'll pick up on it Election Night, Tuesday October 3 on KANW 89.1 FM. Abraham, a former BernCo GOP chairman, will join us as will the voluble duo of former ABQ City Councilors Greg Payne and Pete Dinelli. (How do we referee that one?) Also with us once again will be longtime Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta who will head up our team of analysts.

THE PRUNE JUICE FACTOR

Let's get back to that early voter turnout for some dramatic evidence on how this election is a Senior Citizen affair. Hold on to your Sombrero. These numbers even shocked a couple of our Senator Alligators.

Of the 12,676 votes tallied, only 37 were cast by voters aged 18-20. Just 37! Only 272 votes have been cast by voters aged 21 to 29. And just 597 from voters between at the ages of 30 and 39 and 738 from the 40 to 49 group.

Now get ready for the Prune Juice jolt. Look at this, kids:

1,599 votes come from those aged 50 to 59; In the 60-69 bracket a whopping 4,001 votes came in, the highest of any age group. Not that the 70 to 79 year olds were far behind. They cast 3,814 ballots; in the 80-89 group, 169 had voted early and the Super Golden Oldies--those aged 90 to 99 cast 5 ballots.

And don't forget the Centenarians. Three voters aged 100 or over have voted. Hey, the Centenarians could beat out the 18-20 year olds. Take that, you young whippersnappers.

Abraham adds this note:

60-79 year old early voting female Democrats are the largest demographic group responsible for 18.6% of the absentee and early voters. As for party breakdown, Republicans and Democrats performed nearly equal this week; slightly shifting the total turnout from the Democrats to the Republicans by 2%.

By our count, nearly 74 percent of the vote cast thus far is from voters over the age of 60. Now, that should come down when the Election Day vote is cast with more working class Democrats taking part, but without a doubt electing a mayor continues to be the province of the grey-haired set. With that comes a somewhat more conservative electorate.

BERRY APPROVAL

Mayor Berry leaves office as every other mayor in modern city history--he is deeply unpopular. Only 34 percent of the likely voters in this year's election approve of his job performance and 54 percent disapprove.

The voters polled by the ABQ Journal take part in city elections. That's the best possible electorate for Berry, who will finish his second four year term December 1. If the poll was of only registered voters, or of voters who cast ballots only in general elections, Republican Berry's approval could be below 30 percent.

We'll get around to writing Berry's political obituary, but right now we have too much live action to cover.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017