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Thursday, May 24, 2018

Blog Poll: Readers Kick In To see Who's Up And Who's Down; Statewide Survey Results For Gov., Lt. Gov, Land Commissioner And State Auditor, Plus ABQ Congress Battle And Southern CD Face-Off 

Several blog readers kicked in to finance a Wednesday night statewide robocall poll of 965 likely Democratic voters in the June 5 primary to see what the trends are in the key races with less than two weeks to go.

Not all 965 responded in all the statewide races. We did not call cell phones and some of the categories of voters (age, gender etc.) may not represent the actual turnout for the election. The ABQ Journal will release poll results Saturday and Sunday for some of the contests so it will be fun to see how this survey matches up. That being said, let's get to the action. . . .

ABQ US HOUSE-- In that too-close-to-call battle for the ABQ Dem congressional nomination, it's still too close to call but former US Attorney Damon Martinez appears to have pulled ahead. He polls at 27 percent to Antoinette Sedillo Lopez's 23 percent. Deb Haaland garners 19 percent.

Martinez has had a heavy TV buy and it is has helped moved him from the single digits in early polling to the lead in this survey. But 19 percent of the likely voters remain undecided giving Sedillo Lopez and perhaps Haaland a chance to close the gap.

Candidates Damian Lara and Paul Moya receive 5 percent and Pat Davis is at 4. Lara and Moya recently started TV so it's still an open question whether they will eat into Martinez. However, the buys are limited.

There were 305 respondents to the poll in the ABQ district. The margin of error is  plus or minus 5.8 percent.

SOUTHERN CD---Las Cruces water lawyer and former Senator Udall staffer Xochitl Torres Small is the leader here. She is commanding 44 percent of the vote, compared to Mad Hildebrandt's 16 percent. A large 40 percent of the respondents remain undecided.
Torres Small has been the favorite of national Democrats who have sent support her way. Hildebrandt argues she is more progressive but she has been slowed by a lack of resources.

GOVERNOR--In the race for the Dem nomination for Governor, there's no big surprises. Michelle Lujan Grisham sports a large lead, getting 54 percent to Jeff Apodaca's 18 and Joe Cervantes with 11 percent. 17 percent remain undecided. The race at this point seems to be whether her two opponents will be able to keep her below 50 percent Election Night. MLG performs strongest in ABQ metro and the North and weakest in the south, although she still leads there with 44 percent. The margin of error in the Guv poll is 3.14 percent.

LT. GOVERNOR--There has been little media in the race for the Dem nomination for lieutenant governor and it shows in this survey. A huge 58 percent of the respondents were undecided. However, Silver City area State Senator Howie Morales has a sizable lead among those who have made up their minds. He gets 22 percent; ABQ's Rick Miera comes with 13 and Dona Ana County Commissioner Billy Garrett receives 7 percent. Morales is up with a TV buy and had heavy support at the party's preprimary convention.

STATE AUDITOR--ABQ's Brian Colón may finally be poised to bring home a win but it's not quite over. He polls at 41 percent to 20 percent for Bill McCamley of Las Cruces. Undecided is still a hefty 39 percent. Colón is doing well in the Hispanic north. McCamley has campaigned against Trump's border wall. Colón's TV pursues a more traditional approach.

LAND COMMISSIONER--In this three way face-off environmentalist Garrett VeneKlasen appears to be in the strongest position for the primary. He is winning 34 percent of the vote to 20 percent for Stephanie Garcia Richard. George Muñoz gets 12 percent. Undecided is large at 34 percent. Muñoz recently started a heavy TV buy and hopes that will close the gap with VeneKlasen.

WHAT'S MOST IMPORTANT?

We also asked likely Dem primary voters what they thought is the most important campaign issue. Far and away it was education with 34 percent citing that issue as most important. Crime came in second at 20 percent.

We also asked what would be most important to change New Mexico's downward spiral. 28 percent said better schools and 27 percent said changing the cycle of poverty.

The full poll is here. The questions asked in the poll are here.

Join us for Friday blogging tomorrow as we continue to cover the final stretch of Primary ‘18. Also, we will have analysis of the Albuquerque Journal Poll over the weekend on our Facebook page and right here. Thanks for stopping by. 

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