In contrast to the ABQ Journal poll which shows Torres Small trailing Herrell, 48 to 41, the NYT interactive poll has the race neck and neck. The Times says the difference is that it is including respondents who say they are going to vote this year who did not cast ballots in 2014 and 2016. The Journal poll was of "proven, likely voters" who cast ballots in both '14 and '16.

We asked Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff for further analysis:

It's true that if there is an amazing turnout in places like Las Cruces, this race could really narrow. But, usually places like Las Cruces have low turnout in non-presidential elections.

DEBATING TORRES SMALL

We now see the southern CD race as "likely Republican" whereas other pundits maintain a "lean R" ranking which we previously agreed with. Some readers disagree with us citing the ample funds Torres Small is raising and the anti-Trump wave that could develop. But Torres Small is not mentioning Trump in her media--not at all. How is that supposed to motivate all those Dems who have not voted in previous elections?

And we're also not seeing the energy that we saw in the Dem primary in the ABQ area in the south in this general election. Look at this report from the Carlsbad Current Argus on a recent appearance there by Sen. Martin Heinrich who leads the ticket. "A sparse crowd" showed up. And while she drew some healthy audiences at some stops audience participation for Michelle Lujan Grisham's recent statewide jobs tour was underwhelming. Add to that the ho-hum reaction to the southern campaigns on social media such as Facebook.

Of course, turnout will be dramatically higher from the near historic lows of 2014, but these are not signs of a significant statewide turnout spike. That could very well change and we will wait and see.

And then there is Pearce who will drive GOP turnout in the southern district. That should help Herrell. We're not saying it won't be close or the race isn't in play. Yes to both statements. However, in the end we see the district "likely" but not definitely staying in the R camp.

JAY MILLER

Word arrives of the death of Jay Miller, the NEA lobbyist turned political columnist who was the final--and longest serving--author of the legendary Inside the Capitol column that for decades was distributed to newspapers across the state.

Miller, a native of Lordsburg, had an innate sense of the state's politics that is hard to come by if you were not born and raised here. Starting in 1987 and until 2013 Miller penned his insights on La Politica with the knowledge of an insider and a love for the state. His sense of humor was always within easy reach--a necessity when covering the many follies of this state's politicos.

 "Inside the Capitol" became a fixture in New Mexico newspapers beginning in the 1940's when it was started by New Mexican editor Will Harrison. After Harrison came  Charlie Cullen, Fred Buckles, Bob Huber, Carroll Cagle and Fred McCaffrey, who sold the rights to Miller.

The Internet and the decline of newspapers spelled the end of Inside the Capitol. There were no buyers when Jay retired with his wife to Arizona but he had made his mark.

I explored taking over the column because it had a great influence on me. As a kid I ran across it in the ABQ Tribune and became hooked on it and on political reporting. I got a kick when Miller, a great authority on state politics and history, called me shortly after I had started this blog in 2003 and asked for advice in starting his own blog. I must be doing something right, I chuckled.

Miller's obituary said he died of liver cancer. Jay Miller was 80.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2