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Monday, September 24, 2018

Polling Sets Up Possible Squeaker In Land Commissioner Contest; Polar Opposites Lyons And Garcia Richard Get Set For Statewide Stage, Plus: Analysis Of Polling And Where Contests Stand For Auditor, AG, Treasurer And SOS  

The politicos poring over polling results for the statewide races over the weekend had to stifle yawns until they came to the contest for state land commissioner. Yawns turned to smiles as a nail biter appears to be in store in the battle for state land commissioner.

The important post has turned into a swing seat this century and the ABQ Journal survey showing Dem nominee Stephanie Garcia Richard leading Republican Pat Lyons by only two points--39%-37% with 9% for Libertarian Michael Lucero--confirms that again we are in for a down to the wire contest.

(The poll was taken September 7-13 and has a margin of error of 4.8 percent)

Lyons is a former two term commissioner, winning in 2002 in a 51-48 contest over Dem Art Trujillo. He was re-elected in 2006, beating former ABQ Mayor Jim Baca 52 to 48. Both Dems were unpopular. Trujillo was mired in ethics issues and Baca was in the cellar after his service as Mayor, paving the way for the unusual two term GOP takeover.

Garcia Richard, a three term state House member representing a north central district that includes Los Alamos and Rio Arriba counties, is chair of the House Education Committee. She does not carry the baggage those defeated Dems did, but in 2014 incumbent Dem Land Commissioner Ray Powell didn't either, yet he was narrowly beaten--51-49--by Republican Aubrey Dunn who is not seeking re-election this year.

The land office oversees 9 million acres of surface land and 13 million acres of subsurface mineral rights. Effective negotiating of oil and gas leases, which produce millions in revenue to fund public education and other beneficiaries, is critical. There is little oversight of the office and the commissioner is akin to a czar over all that acreage.

Lyons had amassed $188,00 in cash on hand as of September 3 to Garcia Richard's $33,000. Her coffers were spent down because of a competitive June primary but the lopsided cash balances also reflect oil and gas industry favoritism toward Lyons and their fear of Garcia Richard. She has said she would work to raise the royalties the state gets from oil and gas by a whopping 35 percent--from 18.75% to at least 25%--in line with Texas. She is also a strong supporter of increasing renewable energy leasing, hoping to use wind and solar to lessen the state's reliance on the volatile oil and gas sector.

Lyons, a working rancher from Quay County, is termed out as a Public Regulation Commissioner where he has served two terms. He touts his experience in the land office, inferring that Garcia Richard, a school teacher, is out of her element. He also stresses the mission of the office to maximize income for education. While sympathetic to wind and solar development--he signed the first wind power lease--he notes that New Mexico oil is in the midst of an historic boom--perhaps unprecedented in state history--and competent management is essential to ensure the state gets that maximum income.

Big PAC money from energy and environmental interests will come in and that should help Garcia Richard narrow the cash gap. But the political pros will tell you that a candidate's own campaign cash is highly important because it lets them directly control their message. The PAC money is on its own and sometimes misses the mark. Also, the PACS have to pay a higher rate for TV ads than the campaigns.

SUM IT UP, JOE

Lyons, who is also a former three term state senator, has never lost since going into politics in the 90's. Garcia Richard has shown her stuff by winning a swing legislative district three times. And she would be the first female land commissioner in state history in a year when women candidates have been preforming especially well. Libertarian Lucero has no significant campaign presence and his 9 percent could easily be reduced. How many Hispanic men stick with him and those who stay do they come out of the Lyons column or that of Garcia Richard? That could influence the outcome. Put it all together and you have all the elements for a race too close to call.

(Elizabeth Miller of NM In Depth goes long and deep on where the candidates stand on the key issues in the land office contest.)

Now it's on to the polling in the other statewide races and our analysis of where the races stand.

STATE AUDITOR

Besides the land commission battle, this is the only other statewide race that comes anywhere close to being competitive in the Journal polling released over the weekend. However, former NM Dem Party Chairman Brian Colón still holds an ample lead over appointed GOP Auditor Wayne Johnson, a former BernCo Commissioner who along with Colón made an unsuccessful bid for Mayor of ABQ last year,

Colón, nicknamed the "Happy Warrior" for his upbeat campaign style, leads 45% to 39% with 15 percent undecided. That Colón is not over the 50 percent mark heartens the Johnson camp. On the other hand the last Republican to be elected auditor was in 1968. That's a fifty year Dem run and Johnson needs a lot of the green stuff--and negative ads against Colón--to get it in play. Johnson only had $105,000 in cash on hand as of September 3 and Colón about the same. It will take more than that to dent the Dem.

Johnson has made the most of his incumbency courtesy of Gov. Martinez who appointed him to fill the vacancy created when Dem Tim Keller became ABQ mayor. He has scored widespread coverage for inquiries and audits. His recent forays was against none other than Colón who has a long association with the Robles, Rael, Anaya law firm that does considerable business with government entities and where Colón works "of counsel" but no longer a shareholder. A news article raised the question of the high legal fees the firm has charged the village of Questa but Colón says he never represented the village. Johnson is seeking to subpoena village documents.

His supporters say Colón, who is making his third run for elective office, has a demonstrated thirst for public service and point out that not only does he have a law degree, but a Bachelor's in Finance that make him more than qualified for the position.

The auditor's race is ranked likely Democrat.

ATTORNEY GENERAL 

In his quest for a second term as attorney general Hector Balderas has barely had to fire a shot. It's not that Republican ABQ attorney Michael Hendricks and Libertarian A. Blair Dunn are legal dummies. Far from it. They just haven't raised enough money to take on the heavily favored Balderas who has nearly $1 million in his campaign account.

Balderas leads the race with 53%. Hendricks manages only 32%. Dunn gets 7. Undecided is at 8 percent.

His opponents complain that his office produces more puffed up news releases than significant legal results but Balderas shrugs it off. He has earned points for watching over NM's children and for securing corruption convictions against Dianna Duran, the ex-GOP Secretary of State and former Dem State Senator Phil Griego. Republican Hendricks has won bipartisan kudos for calling for the resignation of ABQ GOP State Rep. Monica Youngblood following her aggravated DWI arrest.

The race for attorney general is rated Safe Democratic.

SECRETARY OF STATE

Maggie Toulouse Oliver won the confidence of the electorate during her stint as Bernalillo County Clerk clerk by running smooth elections that contrasted sharply with the chaos that came before her.

As a reformist Secretary of State she has strengthened her position and leads in the Journal survey. Toulouse Oliver scores 46 percent. Republican Gavin Clarkson gets 32% and Libertarian Ginger Grider's garners 6 percent.

The SOS received some paper cuts from the NM Supreme Court when she attempted to reinstate straight party voting in the state. But the Rs have been hard-pressed to indict her job performance and she is on her way to re-election.

The SOS race is ranked Safe Dem.

STATE TREASURER

Tim Eichenberg has been quiet, too quiet say the R's who would like to see Arthur Castillo oust Eichenberg who is seeking a second four year term. But as with Auditor it has been a mighty long time since an R was elected Treasurer. Eichenberg leads the Journal poll of likely mid-term voters 44% to 34% with 21% undecided.

Eichenberg, a longtime fixture in NM politics, may be quiet and a behind the scenes guy, but he has not been shadowed by scandal as have so many past treasurers--two of whom ended up behind bars in this young century. The public seems content with Eichenberg as long as he keeps his nose clean and invests their money safely.

The Treasurer's race is ranked Safe Dem.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN
 
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