Also, in the WaPo list of governorships most likely to flip from Republican to Democrat, NM is now ranked third, down from first. Still high but something for the R's to hang their hats on.

THE PEARCE HIT

Although Pearce's campaign did not produce the spot, this ad from the Republican Governors Association follows his closing plans perfectly. It brings back the controversy over Delta Consulting, the healthcare group co-founded by MLG.

While other ads on this subject over the long campaign have been somewhat unfocused, this one lays it out simply--and literally in black and white.

It argues MLG's firm received a contract from "scandal tainted" former Governor Bill Richardson when she left a cabinet secretary post; that the Delta contract to run the high risk insurance pool for extremely ill patients overcharged them resulting in big profits for her and excessive premiums for sick patients. The ad declares: "New Mexico doesn't want another scandal tainted administration like Richardson's."

The facts of the Delta ads have been ceaselessly litigated for months by MLG. This ad, however, is solid and potentially persuasive. That doesn't vouch for its truthfulness which is in dispute, but comments on its emotional impact, production values and its success in finally telling this tale as a straight pay to play narrative. The question is whether the time for Delta and Richardson has come and gone.

THE MLG HIT

MLG's hit on Pearce is equally emotional and well put together. Like the RGA ad, it goes with black and white, a surefire sign that high level nuclear is about to be fired. The ad begins with Pearce taking a selfie at the Trump inauguration. . .

Steve Pearce. He took this selfie at Donald Trump’s inauguration. Then voted 90% with Trump.” Like Trump, he believes a wife should “submit as a matter of obedience” Like Trump, he lies… saying his business “rents party equipment”... when it was actually an oil and gas company. Pearce made millions while voting to weaken energy regulations. No wonder Trump gave Pearce his “full support. He shouldn’t be Governor.

The line about a wife submitting plays directly to women supporters in liberal BernCo who polls show are among Lujan Grisham's most enthusiastic backers.

A MLG supporter immediately noted that the contract Delta was awarded was done by a bidding process not a gubernatorial decision. And that MLG's tax returns clearly show she did not "make millions" on Delta.

A Pearce backer challenged the MLG spot, questioning whether Trump has said a wife should "submit" and that Trump prides himself on hiring women to high level positions in his companies. But Pearce did use the submit line in a book he authored.

TURNOUT MODEL

In the last competitive Guv election, held in 2010, about 602,000 votes were cast. Dems would like to see that number at least matched and ideally bump up to 650,000 or more. Republicans are hoping for a repeat of 2014 when turnout crashed to 503,000 in a noncompetitive Guv election. A repeat of '14 is unlikely which is one of the reasons why going into Saturday's early voting the race remains rated Lean Democrat.

MEDICARE FOR ALL?

Torres Small

National Republicans have been hammering southern Dem congressional hopeful Xochitl Torres Small for supposedly supporting the Medicare for All plan that is the talk of DC these days. Their ads falter under a fact check that shows she has not endorsed such a plan. But she gave a lawyerly answer when the Sun-News asked a second time for her position. She said:

There is not a single-payer plan out there that I support.

But that doesn't negate the possibility that a single-payer plan could surface "out there" that she could someday support? Does it?

As for the state of the campaign, as one of our Alligators put it, "Xochitl is running a nimble campaign. Do you notice how she is always talking on camera and Yvette does not? She's establishing a connection."

And you see that in the latest Torres Small ad where she meets with a group of voters to counter the GOP ad that attacks her on Medicare for All, telling the group she wants to hold the drug and insurance companies accountable, not have the government take over healthcare. It is one of her better efforts.

Having said that, the attack ad on her by the R's must been hurting her in the polling and she was forced to respond.

POUNDING HERRELL

Meanwhile, the Super PAC ad that has been pounding Herrell (and we mean pounding as it is in very heavy rotation) and that accuses her of "shady deals" as a legislator--has drawn nary a peep in response from Herrell all these weeks. Yet the ad stays up. Someone is right and someone is wrong here. We'll find out who come Election Night.

GALEA'S REVENGE

Yvette Herrell

Herrell did give an indirect response to another ad that is in heavy rotation--this one from Susan Galea, the former mayor of Alamogordo, Herrell's hometown.

Sporting a patriotic red white and blue scarf, Galea, who supported Herrell's Republican primary foe, Monty Newman, states that Herrell is an "insider who can't be trusted" and that Galea will be voting for Xochitl Torres Small.

Anglo, middle-aged women are core Herrell supporters, so while not putting up a response ad Herrell did send out this message to supporters:

It has become. . . clear to me. . . that Xochitl Torres Small is willing to use any means (and every liberal) possible to discredit my name and impugn my character. Instead of focusing her campaign efforts on issues of extreme importance. . .  Xochitl seeks to rely on the endorsement of a former, disgruntled mayor who actually no longer lives within our Congressional District. . .Just like Xochitl Torres Small, Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders, Susie Galea did not and does not represent the values of our community.

And for good measure, on the heels of the Galea endorsement Herrell rolled out one from former GOP US House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Ex-Mayor Galea is not without her share of controversy which the Alamogordo paper covered when reporting on her endorsement.

The southern congressional race is rated here as Lean Republican. 

ODDS AND ENDS

TV news picked up on our report this week that the state surplus could reach nearly $2 billion, according to NM House Speaker Brian Egolf. . .And the ABQ mayor's office says former US attorney and Dem congressional candidate Damon Martinez has begun working at the ABQ police department on policy and "interagency coordination" but not on Department of Justice reform which he spearheaded as US attorney. . .

ABQ Dem State Rep. Antonio "Moe" Maestas checks in with some interesting news out of Alaska that has a NM connection:

Joe, my UNM Law school classmate, Valerie Davidson, just became Lt. Gov. of Alaska. She hails from the famous class of ’98. The class also has District Court Judge Marie Ward; Metro Court Judge Michelle Castillo Dowler; NMSU Regent Chris Saucedo, former NM Superintendent of Insurance Morris Chavez and UNM Regent Rob Doughty.

Davidson, the first Native American to hold higher office in Alaska, was appointed lt. governor after her predecessor resigned because of "inapprorpriate comments to a woman."

MOVIN' REALLY RIGHT

Talk about moving to the right. GOP US Senate candidate Mick Rich is so desperate to nail down the GOP base that he is having a tussle over with Libertarian Gary Johnson that he's bringing in Trump strategist Steve Bannon to give him a boost:

A key architect of President Trump’s 2016 election victory will be in Roswell Thursday for a screening of his new documentary and to appear alongside Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mick Rich. Bannon, former campaign chairman to Trump and former CEO of the conservative news and opinion website Brietbart.com, will speak with supporters, show parts of his new film “Trump @War” and discuss the future of the Republican Party Thursday from 4 to 7 p.m. at the Hi-Q Venue at 208 North Richardson Ave. The event is free.

Rich and Johnson are trying to unseat Dem US Senator Martin Heinrich.

URBAN CHICANO

Joe Monahan

The Weekly Alibi, ABQ's alternative newspaper, is out with its endorsement of MLG in the '18 Guv race and it had a very personal impact on your blogger. Here we go. . .

That she is the most eminently qualified candidate for the job is not the question; rather it’s whether middle class urban Chicanos raised on a diet of Val de La O, man caves covered in rich Corinthian leather and El Modelo brand red chile ribs can finally put aside their pinche machismo and admit the best way forward is with a qualified woman at the helm.

Uh oh. I was a devoted viewer of the Val de La O show airing on KOB-TV back in the 70's. I live really close to El Modelo and relish their red chile ribs. As for the Corinthian letter, well. I  don't have a 1975 Chrysler padded with the luxe material but I have a leather lazy boy from American Furniture that I sometimes use to enjoy a good book. And I have an old Honda with the full leather option. Considering all of that, I think I qualify as a "middle class urban Chicano." It took me over 40 years but I have finally freed myself from the shackles of being a carpet-bagging, Gringo from Pennsylvania. Time to celebrate! Hey, amigo, pass those ribs over here.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018