AG Barr In The 505 (Pierre Louis, Journal)

The political void in the midst of an ongoing crime wave is the lack of a law and order candidate or officeholder--a tough on crime guy or gal taking a populist approach to the crisis. Well, it turns out there is someone (besides Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales who has tinkered with the role). It's none other than the guy in the White House.

Yep. Donald Trump, toying with the idea of corralling New Mexico's five electoral votes in 2020 in what would be a mega upset, saw his Attorney General William Barr Tuesday bring to ABQ the tough on crime credentials that many voters may hunger for as the murder and mayhem show no real signs of loosening their grip. 

Standing with local law enforcement and touting the results of a federal fugitive round-up operation here, Barr declared:

Unlike many cities in the United States that have seen violent crime rates fall, the violent crime rates in Albuquerque remain stubbornly high. In the months ahead, the federal government is going to be stepping up our efforts to work closely with our state and local partners to ratchet up the attacks on violent crime.

And in case New Mexicans didn't get the message, Barr piled on the judiciary here criticizing the controversial bail reform constitutional amendment as being too soft on the bad guys. Said the nation's top lawman:

That has the effect of not only allowing the offender back on the street where they can commit more crimes, but it also intimidates the neighborhood and prevents people from coming forward because they feel these people will be right back out on the streets. I think part of the problem there is the judiciary in New Mexico, not using the laws that they have to keep dangerous offenders in pretrial detention.

Whoa. Hear that Governor MLG, Mayor Keller and APD Chief Geier? Well, maybe not since none were at the Barr event. A US Marshal spokesperson said the Democratic mayor was not invited. Sheriff Gonzales, who has not ruled out a 2021 mayoral run, was there and posed for photos with Barr.

Seeing the growing public frustration with the unsuccessful fight on crime, the Governor recently announced a fugitive round-up operation of her own.

Mayor Keller and Chief Geier continue to pull as many rabbits out of the hat as they can, but the search goes on for solutions to a maddening crime spree that is now years-old.

Trump is nothing if not an opportunist. He knows that he only has a longshot chance in New Mexico next year because of heavy Dem BernCo. If he could trim his losing margin to a tolerable level here, he could put together a mathematical case for a slim win. And since BernCo is ground zero for the crime wave, here we are with Trump's AG sampling some of our fine green chile. (And don't forget Trump's own visit to the ABQ metro in September).

Winning here remains highly unlikely but Team Trump can be expected to continue to flirt with NM and pull up stakes only when polling shows that turning blue to red is as difficult as finding a rabbit trick that works on crime.

WHO'S TOUGHEST?

Who among the top three Dem presidential hopefuls would be toughest for Trump in NM?

Former VP Joe Biden would probably have the broadest appeal given his strength with minorities of which there are many in New Mexico. Also, he could dampen Trump's win in the conservative south by picking up conservative D's of his own.

Bernie Sanders has a strong base in big BernCo, Santa Fe and Las Cruces but probably wouldn't run as well as Biden in the north. Trump would work to radicalize the Vermont senator but it would be no easy task.

Elizabeth Warren would probably be the weakest of the top three hopefuls here. The Massachusetts senator has had difficulty making her case to minority voters. That would have to change if she were to keep Trump fully in check. Still, Trump beating Warren would be an uphill climb. She could coalesce the vote in the cities and take her thumping in rural areas while still taking the win.

DOWNS AND UPS

MLG's camp was disturbed by an early round of Morning Consult polling that showed her near the bottom in popularity among the nation's governors. Now they get a little relief as the MC poll taken in the third quarter has the first year Governor garnering an approval rating of 47 percent, with disapproval at 37 percent and "don't know" at 16. In the first quarter MLG polled a skimpy 41 percent approval with 33 percent disapproval.

Those numbers leave room for improvement, considering she won election with 57 percent but the difference in the two surveys is night and day in terms of stirring her opposition. Now, if she could only figure out how to get around the Senate Finance Committee. 

THE BOTTOM LINES

Democratic state Senator Joe Cervantes represents District 31 in the Las Cruces area and ABQ GOP state Senator Sander Rue represents District 23. The numbers were in error in a first blog draft Tuesday.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019