With the odds favoring the Dems nominating Bernie Sanders for president, we're wondering how he would play in New Mexico in a match-up with President Trump.

We took that question and others to veteran political analyst Greg Payne, 52, a Republican turned Democrat who has managed numerous campaigns and was himself elected to the ABQ city council and the NM legislature from BernCo. He is now an attorney in private practice in ABQ. We conducted our conversation via text message.

Greg, welcome to another exciting election year. Would a Sanders candidacy make it more likely that President Trump would make a stand here?

That's unlikely. New Mexico is a solid blue state. Also, Sanders demonstrated in Nevada, a majority-minority state like ours, that he has strong appeal among working class Hispanics. That bodes well for him here. Having said that, I think Sanders being labeled a radical and socialist could stiffen Republican opposition. That could increase GOP turnout and trim Sanders' victory margin.

Hillary Clinton in 2016 carried Bernalillo County by about 49,000 votes in a three way presidential race  that featured former NM Gov. Gary Johnson. I suspect Sanders' margin in a two race may not go that high but his BernCo win would still be in the tens of thousands. That would essentially make the state impossible for the Republican to win.

The race everyone is watching is the contest for the southern congressional seat where Dem Rep. Torres Small is running for re-election. Did Nevada tell us anything about her campaign? 

As I said, Nevada is majority-minority and Sanders crushed it with Hispanics there. That bodes well for Torres Small. Sanders should energize her key county of Dona Ana and perform well with Hispanics throughout the large district. If the R's think Sanders would cost her the seat, they are probably wrong. Like most Democrats, Sanders would lose the district to the Republican and Torres Small can still lose it. Both sides will have energy but based on Sanders' appeal to minorities, I would be surprised if a Democratic loss would be his fault.

But Sanders has issues here, right?

Yes, let me go back to BernCo. If R's in the NE Heights are energized, that could curb Sanders' win there and could impact swing state House races. First term Democrats--Bash, Hochman-Vigil, Stansbury, Matthews and the seat being vacated by Abbas Akhil--will be among those targeted by the R's. If they can spike turnout over fears about Sanders, those Dem representatives could feel the heat.

What about the US Senate race?

Greg Payne

That one, the pundits agree, is Rep. Ben Ray Lujan's to lose. Lujan and the Democrats now have added incentive to work ABQ hard because the R's may be motivated here and Lujan's home base is in the north. Also, the Dems need to bridge the gap with Clinton Democrats who don't like Sanders. That will be Lujan's job as well as that of Senators Udall and Heinrich. The argument to make is that while you may not like Bernie, you sure don't care for Trump and must vote him out.

How do you see the national outlook?

I don't think Sanders would be a replay of 1972 when the Democrats nominated liberal George McGovern for president and lost in a landslide. The country has changed dramatically, especially the growth of the minority population. However, I still see Trump well-positioned for re-election.  Sanders would not lose Dem states like California and New York. Also, some will disagree but I don't think Sanders would cause widespread losses for the Dems in the congressional races. But overcoming his far left image nationally will make it difficult for him to win the presidency.

Final thoughts?

All state senators as well as state representatives are up for election in November. I will be watching the race to succeed retiring Republican Senator Bill Payne in the NE Heights. Would GOP fear of Sanders  help keep that one in the R column? On ABQ's westside, would a Hispanic surge for Bernie endanger Republican Senator Sander Rue?

Thanks, Greg. Next stop is the June 2 primary and then on to November. Payne can be reached at greg@gregpayne.com and on Facebook.

DROP OUT 

NM House Speaker Brian Egolf is a happier speaker this week. Lyla June Johnston, his Dem primary opponent, has dropped out of the race. She says she wants to devote her time to the cause of climate change but the Santa Fe Reporter came with the scoop that her former campaign manager has accused her of stealing:

. . . She was named as a suspect by the Santa Fe Police Department in a criminal investigation. . . Johnston was accused of fraud and embezzlement in late January by her then-campaign manager, who told authorities Johnston appeared to have helped steal thousands of dollars worth of the manager’s property. . . She (said): “The incidents in these [police] reports are untrue and stemmed from misunderstandings and the normal complications that organizations face when separating with a high-level employee. So, I was really happy that we’ve been able to work together to clear everything up and this misunderstanding has nothing to do with my decision to change direction. . .Johnston and the campaign manager’s lawyer say the property was returned after police got involved.

The 30 year old Native American jolted the establishment with her challenge of Egolf and even conducted a week long fast outside the Roundhouse to bring attention to the climate (and her candidacy).

As for Egolf he has a big task ahead of him--protecting the many state House seats the Dems picked up from the R's in 2018. Without a primary foe, he'll have more time to do that. He is a shoo-in for November in his heavy Dem Santa Fe district.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020