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Monday, September 21, 2020

Gauging The Impact Of Ginsburg Passing On NM Voters; Abortion To Surface? Plus: Absentee Voting By The Book  

Yet another big event in 2020 but will the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg have an impact on the New Mexico election?  There's no consensus among the political intelligentsia but a number of them believe that in Blue New Mexico another Trump appointment to the high court raises the hot button issue of abortion and that's where we could see repercussions.

Pro-life votes, a distinct minority, are already in Trump's corner. They will be energized by the prospect of a 6 to 3 conservative court but there are just not that many more votes to add to Trump's tally. On the margins, political pros say, renewed interest for Trump in the conservative bastions of the southern congressional district could help Republican Yvette Herrell who is challenging Dem US Rep. Xochitl Torres Small. But any small boost in GOP fortunes could be offset by pro-choice voters in the Las Cruces area.

Pro-choice groups are already warning that a muscular conservative court could mean the justices revisit Roe v. Wade which expanded abortion rights. That could have New Mexico women--especially those in the ABQ, Santa Fe and Las Cruces metros--hardening their opposition to both Trump and pro-life GOP US Senate candidate Mark Ronchetti who faces Dem Rep. Ben Ray Lujan. 

Abortion is not a matter the GOP needs to surface in the state's population centers. In 2013 when a pro-life group forced a special ABQ election on banning late term abortions nearly 80,000 voters turned out and the measure was soundly defeated, 55% to 45%. Pro-choice voters have only grown in strength since then 

We wouldn't be surprised to see some Democratic women state House members, who are making their first re-election bids in the newly moderate ABQ NE Heights, make the Supreme Court, abortion and the future of Obamacare as a headliner in the mailboxes before this election is over. Ditto for some of the Dem state Senate candidates. 

And don't forget fund-raising. In the aftermath of Ginsburg's death Dems nationally were opening their wallets wide as they prepared for the epic battle over the Supreme Court seat and the November election.

Veteran NM analyst Greg Payne adds a cautionary note to the speculation:

So much has happened and is happening in this crazy year that I am not sure this will make much of a difference in voting patterns.

CLEMENTE AND CORDOVA

So one of the Alligators in good standing (some have been ejected from the pond on occasion) reported that outgoing Dem State Senator Clemente Sanchez is supporting Republican Josh Sanchez against Dem Pam Cordova who beat Clemente in the Dem primary for the Valencia/Cibola District 30 seat. Well, maybe not quite. 

Clemente berated us on social media, yelling in all caps, "I AM A DEMOCRAT." Okay, so we asked him via messaging who he is supporting in the race. No response. But a close friend of Clemente's tells us he was upset about our report not because he is supporting Cordova--he isn't--but neither is he supporting Josh Sanchez. The report now is that Clemente won't be voting in the contest to succeed him. That is unless he again raises his voice in dissent on social media. 

COVID TESTING

We blogged a recent Scientific American article praising New Mexico's effort in fighting COVID but ABQ GOP State Senator Mark Moores takes issue with one aspect of that article: 

Joe, regarding COVID testing. Tricore’s is not an independent laboratory. It is owned 50% by UNM along with Presbyterian hospital. It was set up as a nonprofit hospital coop that is supposed to provide services to only its members. It has created a separate for profit subsidiary to get around that IRS prohibition. Half of its board is appointed and controlled by UNM thus making it a quasi-state agency. The only independent private laboratory preforming COVID testing is ours--Pathology Consultants of New Mexico. We have capacity to run 1,000 COVID tests a day. I bet I’m the only elected official who has personally suited up in PPE in 100+ degree summer days and swabbed thousands of patients at drive throughs. We didn’t hide in our basement when COVID hit, we went to work. 

Well, Sen. Moores did not hide in the basement this summer, but if the Dems deliver on their pledge to increase their numbers in the Senate, he and the other R's could end up hiding in the basement of the Roundhouse. 

MAILING THAT ABSENTEE

We blogged last week that the "deadline" for mailing absentee ballots is Oct. 27. Actually, that is not a legal deadline but a suggested deadline from the Secretary of State to ensure that ballots are received by 7 p.m. Election Night which is the legal deadline for receipt of an absentee ballot. Absentees received after that time will not be counted. 

There is a sure fire way to avoid the worry that your absentee will be lost or won't get there on time--take it to one of the secure drop boxes that will be set up by country clerks next month.

A Senior Alligator sends the letter of the law on getting that absentee ballot in:

-Section 1-6-9 NMSA 1978 (Mailed Ballots; Manner of Voting; Delivery Methods); The official mailing envelope containing a completed ballot may be returned: By using the U.S. Postal Service; By using a commercial delivery service approved by the NM Secretary of State and provided that the voter is responsible to pay for the mailing; In person to the County Clerk or a polling place, and; By depositing the official mailing envelope containing the completed ballot in a "secured container" (commonly known as a "drop box") made available by the County Clerk.

 NMSA 1978 in the Absentee Voter portion of the NM Election Code (Absentee Ballot; Delivery to County Clerk); "A. A voter, caregiver to that voter or member of that voter's immediate family may deliver the voter's absentee ballot to the county clerk in person or by mail; provided that the voter has subscribed the official mailing envelope of the absentee ballot. B. As used in this section, "immediate family" means the spouse, children, parents or siblings of a voter."

NMSA 1978 of the NM Election Code (Conduct of Election, Election Day Delivery of Absentee Ballot By Voter, Procedures);"A voter who requested and received an absentee ballot shall be allowed to deliver the official mailing envelope containing the voter's absentee ballot on election day to any polling place in the county in which the voter is registered if the voter presents the official mailing envelope to the presiding judge before the polls close on election day."

Any way you cut it there is going to be more absentee ballots cast in this election in state history, and that could set a trend for the future. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020
 
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