Toulouse Oliver

The special election to fill the ABQ congressional seat vacated by Dem Deb Haaland, the new Secretary of Interior, is now on the fast track. Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver has called the election for Tuesday, June 1 and will issue an official proclamation today. 

Members of the NMGOP Central Committee from the ABQ congressional district on March 27 will select the R nominee. Dems will do the same March 30. Then the battle will be fully joined. 

But the Dems won't actually "meet," says a party spokeswoman: 

 DPNM absentee balloting rules means that the SCC won’t actually meet to choose the nominee, they’ll just vote over a period of 12 hours. Those ballots are nonsecret and available to the public (upon request) and any SCC meeting that takes place in the future is open to the public.

We're told the R's will meet over zoom.

(Navy vet and financial consultant John McDivitt is set to become the Libertarian Party candidate and former GOP Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn, Jr. will wage an independent campaign).

Now the analysis. . . 

The SOS set the election well short of the maximum 91 days allowed from the date of the Haaland vacancy. The election comes 77 days after the resignation, the minimum time required by law. 

Some R's grumbled that the short timetable favors the Dems who are heavily favored to take the seat. However, the June 1 date is the day after Memorial Day and some Dems expressed concern about getting their vote out so close to a holiday. The date is actually in line with regular primary elections which are held in early June. It's a fair call. 

Once Toulouse Oliver issues the proclamation, the election will fall largely into the court of Bernalillo County Clerk Linda Stover. The district also includes rural Torrance County and a few precincts in Sandoval, Santa Fe and Valencia counties. 

Stover has had good fortune at the BernCo election helm the last five years. Ditto for veteran Toulouse Oliver who has been in the election game for 14 years. 

Stover told me she is ready to go:

Both Stover and the SOS urged potential 1st CD voters not yet registered to do so here. The last day to register for the election is 28 days prior to June 1.

While less than 200 Dems and 135 R's select the nominees, campaigning is fever pitched. There are now just days left to twist arms and land a nomination that could put the contender in the United States Congress for years. 

The high stakes, once in a generation event is drawing a crowd. Look at this long list of hopefuls: 

Front-runners? This is a mad scramble. 

Michaela Chavez

On the R side the two newest entrants are State Sen. Mark Moores and anti-abortion activist Elisa Martinez. Outspoken radio talk show host Eddy Aragon and his supporters are framing the race as the establishment led by GOP Chairman Steve Pearce versus the Trump wing of the party led by Aragon. They claim Moores and Martinez getting in the race so late is a movida to shake votes loose from Aragon. 

Aragon ran a respectable race against Pearce in December for the party chairmanship, losing 76 to 47 in the GOP central committee. Here's video from a campaign event Aragon attended Tuesday night. 

Michaela Chavez, perhaps a rising star for the party, is trying to end the factionalism and is campaigning on a unity platform. Here's video.

On the Dem side the pros opinions are blowing around like those grains of sand down at White Sands. With such a small universe of voters, they and their candidates are as nervous as the proverbial cat on a hot tin roof. 

Most have State Sen. Antoinette Sedillo Lopez and State Rep. Melanie Stansbury contending, but Victor Reyes is campaigning like his 28 year old life depended on it. 

How much will the campaign cost? Several consultants put the price tag at about $1 million each for the Dem and R hopefuls, with about half of the budgets going for TV time. 

Dems will be able to raise that amount, they say. Will the R's, for a seat that is really not in play? It could be difficult. 

We're keeping tabs on the final hours of the legislative session and will post any major developments on our Twitter and a Friday blog if needed.