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Thursday, May 13, 2021

ABQ Congress Race: Stansbury Weighs In On Breathe Act For First Time As Moores Pounds Away, Plus: By The Numbers; Dems Have Big Registration Edge; National R's Take A Walk  

After relentless hammering and a new TV ad from Republican Mark Moores, Dem Melanie Stansbury has shown some movement on the Breathe Act that Moores has made the centerpiece of his long shot campaign to turn the ABQ congressional seat Red in the June 1 special election. 

Stansbury ignored Moores' attacks over her support of the far reaching legislation during three TV debates, legislation he says would defund the police, shut down ICE and release "notorious criminals" onto the streets. It's all part of her "radical" persona, Moores charges. 

The bill, given little chance of passing Congress, sprung from the Black Lives Matter movement in the wake of high profile police killings. It does call for defunding police and shutting down ICE and reallocating that money for social programs. 

In reacting to the Moores ad, which says "Stansbury supports the most dangerous piece of legislation in America as ABQ faces a record number of homicides," Stansbury's campaign did not walk back her support but did clarify it:

Rep. Stansbury coordinated capital outlay that brought home over $11 million in funding for public safety. . .In Congress, she will continue working to bring home resources to fight crime. . .She understands that we must reform and rethink policing in America and that to do so, we need a national conversation that considers the options and works to address the root causes of crime. The BREATHE Act is just a proposal, not a piece of legislation. If the final legislation includes sections that she cannot support because they are wrong for New Mexicans, then she’ll look to other solutions. . . 

On the heels of Moores' TV blast Stansbury also released a video endorsement from Dem BernCo District Attorney Raul Torrez:

She’s been a strong partner for law enforcement. Helping to deliver millions in training, equipment, and salaries for local police. I know she’ll have our back in Congress, and that’s why I have her back.

Stansbury also has a TV ad up that boasts of her support for providing resources to law enforcement and she adds a hit on Moores:

Mark Moores opposed President Biden's American Rescue Plan, money for families and small businesses, and millions for local law enforcement. Yet, Moores took nearly two million in PPP money for his own business.

A media fact check on that attack of Moores found it to be “misleading.”

Early in-person voting expands Saturday throughout the district. The lion's share of the vote will be cast well before the June 1 election day which comes on the Monday following the long Memorial Day weekend.
 
Given that backdrop, this is probably Moores' last best hope to move the numbers his way. There isn't time for much else. 

BY THE NUMBERS

Moving the turnout is also on the minds of the candidates. The campaigns haven't captured the imagination of the broader electorate and special elections almost always draw fewer voters than regular elections so who gets the vote out is paramount. That favors the Democrats who have a well-oiled machine and have held the district since Martin Heinrich won in 2008. 

At the end of January the SOS reports there were 466,000 registered voters in the First CD. Dems made up 47 percent, R's 28%, independents and others 24%.

Consultants say turnout could be as low as 100,000 or about 21 percent of registered voters. 

Besides that overwhelming Dem registration advantage, Moores also has to contend with two other conservative male candidates on the ballot--independent Aubrey Dunn and Libertarian Chris Manning. 

Stansbury is the lone woman on the ballot and a woman has held the seat since MLG took it in 2012.

Some national media is opining that the election is an early test of President Biden's popularity who carried the district with over 60 percent of the vote in 2020. Perhaps. But a true test would be if the national Republicans had targeted the seat and had pumped in big media money. They didn't. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021
 
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