Tim Jennings

Rock solid Republican Chaves County apparently will see a Democrat lead its largest city. 

Former 34 year state Senator Tim Jennings prevailed by 57 votes in unofficial results over Roswell GOP Mayor Dennis Kintigh at Tuesday's city election, denying him a third, four year term and giving the Dems a morale boost in the deep red region. 

Conservative Dem Jennings was winning 2,420 votes or 44 percent to Kintigh's 2,363 or 43 percent. Two other candidates received the rest. About 5,500 votes were cast in the city of about 48,000. It would be a rarity for a 60 vote margin in such a turnout not to hold up in any recount that is conducted. 

Neither Kintigh or Jennings had made public comments on the election as of late Tuesday.

Roswell and other city election results from across the state are here.

Consultants close to the campaigns did not see the result as a sign of Democratic resurrection in the area in advance of the November Guv election. Offered one:

An early sign of discontent with the incumbent came in March of 2020 when votes overwhelmingly defeated the mayor's proposed $34 million public safety complex which would have raised property taxes. On the crime front the murder rate in Roswell nearly doubled in 2021.

Importantly, prominent Roswell oilman and major Republican donor Mark Murphy had turned against Kintigh, raising campaign funds for Jennings and attracting disaffected Republicans to his camp. 

Campaign spending set a record with Kintigh appearing to approach $40,000 or more and Jennings more than that. 

Jennings, a Roswell native and rancher, always did have Republican appeal, getting elected to a SE NM district that leaned GOP and holding it for 34 years before being defeated in 2012 while serving as the Senate president pro tem.

In his candidate announcement Jennings pledged, if elected, he would concentrate on needed infrastructure repairs in the city and work to hire more police. 

While Dems had their morale boost in Roswell, the GOP got theirs in Rio Rancho where Republican Mayor Gregg Hull easily won re-election over two opponents by getting 68 percent of the vote. Unlike Kintigh, Hull retained his popularity for two terms and now will begin his third. 

The contest to become the next Speaker of the NM House could hinge on the outcome of Democratic primary races in a number of districts. 

That's the word from our Santa Fe watchers (and Alligators) who say right now the coast appears clear for House Majority Leader Javier Martinez to replace Speaker Brian Egolf who announced he will not seek reelection this year, but that could change if conservative and moderate Dems increase their numbers this election year. 

If conservative muscle grows as a result of the primaries, they say look for House Appropriations Committee Chair Patricia Lundstrom to talk more seriously about seeking the speakership and Martinez prepping for a challenge. On the other hand if progressives hold their own, Martinez could be expected to start picking out new furniture for the Speaker's office. 

The Republicans can't be counted out in this scenario. They believe they have a good chance of  reducing the ranks of Dems from the current 44 by picking up a couple of BernCo House seats in November. If that happened and several conservative D's win primaries in safe Dem districts, the prospect of a conservative coalition in the House could arise, with GOP members joining with the middle of the road Dems to take power. (The House is presently 44 Dems 25 GOP and 1 independent.)

That happened way back when (in the late 70's and early 80's when the "Cowboy Coalition" took power from the then prevailing liberal Dems. 

The Senate's decade-long conservative coalition was busted up in the June 2020 primaries with the defeat of several conservative Democrats. But coalition politics is complex and cunning and never quite ready for the grave in the intriguing world of La Politica. 

Ivey-Soto

ABQ Dem state Senator Daniel Ivey-Soto is feeling much heat over charges from lobbyist Marianne Anaya that he sexually groped her in 2015 and abused her at the recent legislative session but reader Dennis Martinez is not among them:

Anaya's complaint of sexual harassment against Ivey-Soto is pending at the Legislature and expected to be investigated. She has called on him to resign.