There are no major announced GOP candidates but a poll of unknown origin (with only the questions provided not results) circulating in the state landed in our email from a Senior Alligator. It lists these possible Republican contenders:

Of particular interest is that former Gov. Martinez was the only contender in the survey placed in a head-to-head matchup with Heinrich.

None of the candidates listed is seen as a major threat to Heinrich, including Martinez, whose negatives were sky high at the end of her two terms and would be revisited if she were to make an unexpected run.

Her public statements on Facebook don’t indicate a candidacy is brewing but if her longtime political consultant Jay McCleskey, who recently handled the two unsuccessful statewide runs by Ronchetti, is behind the poll and looking for another big payday, Martinez may be his mark. 

In 2019 a similar anonymous poll circulated for that year’s Senate election that also included Martinez, Sanchez, Ronchetti and Domenici. Ronchetti ended up as the GOP nominee. 

This time that’s unlikely, given the former TV weatherman’s two notable failures. As for ex-Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, he is now apparently retired from politics. 

Nella Domenici could count on a personal fortune amassed on Wall Street to help her in a bid for the Senate but she does not live here full-time, has not been involved in the state’s politics and publicly has indicated no interest. 

The poll asks potential voters whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about the possible hopefuls. Certainly most of them will rank high in favorability among Republicans.The problem is their appeal to independents and Democrats in a state that last elected a Republican to the Senate in 2002. 

There is no guarantee that Heinrich will not draw a well-known opponent but if they are to come from this list, the odds now being laid by the pundits that he will be reelected would not appear to be at risk. 

It’s not just a candidate recruitment problem. The GOP is locked in a far right Trump/DeSantis dynamic with little appeal in blue New Mexico. 

Minus a major scandal involving an incumbent or until there is a re-branding of the minority party, Democrats are likely to keep their hold on the five member state congressional delegation. But that doesn’t mean we and others won’t still be looking and hoping for some excitement to surface.  

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