Tuesday, September 12, 2023Practical Political Impact Of MLG Gun Ban; No Impeachment But Poll Numbers Could Take Hit; Rep. Vasquez Has A Decision To Make; Heinrich Backs Away From Guv As Do Six Dem Conservative House Reps; MLG Hits Back After Sheriff Allen Disagrees, And Mayor Keller's Political Peril Rises
--First, she will not be impeached, a fanciful notion from the radical right. The Democrats are firmly in control of both chambers of the Legislature and are not about to vote for an impeachment resolution. The resolution being put forth in the House amounts to the same political posturing that the sponsors accuse the Governor of engaging in with her unenforceable gun ban. (By the way, no Governor in state history has been impeached.) --The race for the southern congressional seat is in the line of fire over the gun ban. Republican Yvette Herrell is pressing freshman Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez for a statement on MLG's controversial order but like most prominent Dems not in law enforcement he is remaining mum. The national GOP is also putting the heat on: Since coming to D.C. Gabe Vasquez has aligned himself with the extreme Left on a number of issues, the latest of which is this gun ban. Vasquez cannot ignore a violation of the Constitution and expect New Mexicans to accept his silence.” If he does respond Vasquez will probably break with the Governor in the swing district. Herrell can continue to make hay over it but will the gun ban matter a year from now? That's the unanswered question. ALLEN AND SAM  Ditto for BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman who also firmly broke with the Governor, even though she appointed him to the post that he is seeking election to next year. As out of fashion as the Republicans are, the two races where they have potential to remain relevant are Sheriff and DA. That's because the party's traditional tough on crime platform will have more appeal if the crime crisis persists. Bregman and Allen are well aware. The good news for them is a weak GOP bench. There doesn't seem to be anyone on it to run against the two Dems. MLG HITS BACK MLG is fighting back against her gun ban critics on social media and Sheriff Allen got a taste of it after he rejected her plan: I don’t need a lecture on constitutionality from Sheriff Allen: what I need is action. What we need is for leaders to stand up for the victims of violent crime. We need law enforcement, district attorneys, public officials, school leaders and state agencies to use every single tool at their disposal to stop this violence. Period. MORE DEM DIVISION More division with the Dem Party as six conservative House Dems came out against the ban, although the rest of the House Dem caucus has been quiet. The four foes of the ban are State Reps. Joseph Sanchez, Ambrose Castellano, Harry Garcia, Patty Lundstrom,Tara Jaramillo and Willie Madrid. They said in a letter to the Governor: We concur with law enforcement leaders that these executive orders violate law-abiding citizens' Second Amendment rights and would require law enforcement officers to infringe upon these rights, which could expose officers, police agencies, and communities to civil litigation. We agree that the Governor does not have the authority to disregard both the New Mexico Constitution and the US Constitution. MLG POLLING MLG's latest approval rating was at 47 percent, slipping below the key 50 percent mark. Most analysts think the gun ban could have her dipping more. She's energized her GOP opposition and may have alienated some conservative Dems and independents who have been supporters. But it's not as if her views on guns were not well-known. A polling collapse does not seem in the cards but more of the traditional second term drip, drip drip. MARTINEZ AND HEINRICH Former GOP Gov. Susana Martinez has been quiet about her successor but did take to social media to blast MLG over the gun order, renewing speculation that she might try to resuscitate her dormant career by getting in the US Senate race against Dem Martin Heinrich. But Heinrich, an avid hunter, has less to fear than most Dems. Also, there is the Martinez record as Governor waiting to be hurled back at her with a couple of million dollars in paid ads. Still, Heinrich made sure to back away from the ban even if it was a milquetoast rebuff of the Guv's plan as he worked to avoid alienating progressives who support the Guv: The gun violence in New Mexico and across our country has had devastating impacts on families, communities, and our sense of safety. It's why I led the effort on the first federal gun reform law passed in nearly three decades. There is more that can and should be done to stem the violence and ensure every American can feel safe at school, at the grocery store, or at the movie theatre. As we do that work, we need to focus on
solutions that are constitutional and enforceable. Dem state Senator Joe Cervantes, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, was one of the few Dem legislators to publicly criticize MLG's gun ban, saying on X: Having passed key gun safety laws working with her administration, I call on the Governor to rescind her order outlawing arms. An unconstitutional approach undermines the important collaboration gun issues deserve, and the important role of a Governor to lead genuine reforms.
Cervantes may not have to wait long for the gun ban to be rescinded or delayed. Various lawsuits have been filed to do so and legal experts give them a good chance of succeeding. CITY ELECTION IMPACT
--For ABQ Mayor Tim Keller the murder of the 11 year old boy in an apparent road rage incident near Isotopes Park is the latest in a long line of horrible crime tragedies that have haunted him since he took office in December 2017. The MLG gun ban makes ABQ appear even less safe to out of state business looking to relocate and to others eyeing a move to the metro. Keller's team keeps saying there is "noone else" and that he will win a third term in 2025. But if ABQ kids continue to be killed in the streets and their homes that narrative will be seriously at risk, if it isn't already. This is the home of New Mexico politics.
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