When it comes to New Mexico's is it another head fake from Donald Trump?

In each of his two earlier runs for the White House he has taunted Democrats that he would shock them by taking this Dem stronghold. He even showed up to campaign here but each time the early boasting bent to reality and Trump did not seriously contest the state. 

Now for his third run Trump is at it again, telling Fox he believes he can flip five Dem states including ours: 

We can flip New Mexico," he declared while also citing New York, New Jersey, Virginia and Minnesota. 

State Dems were quick to dispute the former President's contention: 

New Mexico never has and never will be Trump Country. New Mexicans will show up to re-elect Joe Biden. In the 2020 election, Trump lost New Mexico by a comically wide margin, losing by almost 100,000 votes. If he thinks he stands a chance in New Mexico, he clearly can’t comprehend who New Mexicans are or what we believe in. New Mexicans don’t stand for far-right MAGA extremism. . . 

Still, Trump's newfound strength with Hispanics and Scranton Joe's overall current polling weakness is cause for the Dems to worry, perhaps not over a statewide loss but for that battle for the southern congressional seat held by Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez who will be in a tight fight with Republican Yvette Herrell who he ousted in 2022. 

In 2020 Biden beat Trump in the 2nd district by 6.1 points. In 2016 Trump carried it by 10.2 percent over Clinton. How the district behaves in this year's presidential race will be a major determinant in whether Vasquez holds on for a second term. It makes you wonder if we might see Trump hold a rally in the ABQ South Valley, an Hispanic stronghold that is now in the southern district.

FED FILING DAY 

(Federal filings here.)

But the US Senate race is drawing unexpected interest now that Nella Domenici, daughter of the late GOP US Sen. Pete Domenici, filed 8,000 petition signatures Tuesday--twice the required amount--to qualify for the ballot. 

Former BernCo Sheriff Manny Gonzales also filed paperwork to run for the GOP Senate nomination but Domenci is expected to heavily outspend Gonzales who also faces legal issues from the time he was sheriff. 

Heinrich will face no Democratic opposition in the June primary as he sets out to win a third Senate term. But his worry is that Biden underperforms in the state giving Domenici a boost in November. 

No NM US Senator has been ousted from office since 1982 but these are very unsettled times. The national parties will monitor the race closely going forward with Heinrich the early fave.

Republican Louie Sanchez, an ABQ shooting range co-owner, filed for the ABQ-centered congressional seat and the right to take on Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury who will be unopposed in the June primary. Accountant Steve Jones of Ruidoso also filed for the GOP nomination, with Sanchez the favorite to take the primary win. 

NORTHERN ACTION

Clahchischilliage

Former GOP state Rep. Sharon Sharon Clahchischilliage, a Navajo from the Farmington area, announced months ago she would seek the northern congressional seat held by Dem Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez. The Republican filed Tuesday and was the only R to do so. 

While a clear underdog in the fall, she is a political pro who will have to be watched by the Dems in the sprawling rural district whose centerpiece is the Dem stronghold of Santa Fe. Clahchischilliage said upon filing:

Look at gun control, look at oil and gas ... there’s a lot of over-regulating. Farmers are feeling it, ranchers are feeling it. We’re all feeling it as New Mexicans and it’s not common sense to us.

Any debates between the two candidates in this northern race should be of interest. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.