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Monday, May 06, 2024

Dem Star Bows Out Of State Senate Race Giving GOP Golden Opportunity; Correa Hemphill Cites Family And Finances As Departure Reasons; Could She Still Pop Up In Future? 

Sen. Correa Hemphill
A bright star of the state Democratic Party stable is hanging up her saddle and giving the Republicans a solid chance of taking over a coveted state senate seat.

State Senator Siah Correa Hemphill has announced she is bowing out and while her name will appear on the June 4 Democratic primary ballot she will withdraw the day after. 

Members of the Democratic Party Central Committee from the three counties in her SW NM district will be charged with naming a replacement for the November ballot.

Correa Hemphill, a school psychologist, says she is leaving in part because of family financial considerations:

When I first started, I had money in the bank, and I was thinking that I’d be able to do some work during the interim. I had no idea that the interim was so busy, and of course, being on the Legislative Finance Committee, that’s a blessing and a curse because it’s so much work and required so much time away from home, and additional time that I’m not able to work. … And ultimately, it just wasn’t conducive to the life or the work of a school psychologist, because you have to be able to give consistent therapy sessions and consistent behavioral support to the schools for parents to be happy and for kids to be able to make progress. It just was not feasible.” 

The Senator is the mother of four with three children still at home, one who has a severe disability. Her husband works in marketing for Western NM University.

She relayed a conversation she had with Gov. Lujan Grisham:

She called me and just wished me well, and expressed her gratitude for me serving in the Senate. I just again framed it around needing employment — it’s particularly challenging in Senate District 28. Because when you’re a legislator in Santa Fe, or Albuquerque. . .you know, it’s like 15 minutes (from the Roundhouse). So the bulk of legislators don’t have to figure out how to save money to go up and serve during a 60-day session — that’s a good $10,000.

ELATED CONSERVATIVES

Gabe Ramos

As progressive Correa Hemphill, a member of the powerful Senate Finance Committee bows out, conservatives are celebrating. 

They believe that prominent Silver City businessman and former Grant County Commissioner Gabe Ramos, who was appointed to fill a vacancy to the senate seat as a Democrat but lost to Correa Hemphill in the 2020 primary, is well-positioned to take it over. He is running for the seat this year as a Republican.

An ABQ friend of Ramos reacted to the news:

Sen. Martin Heinrich's #1 progressive candidate from the 2020 primary who he endorsed and raised money for was Sen. Correa Hemphill. That primary election saw her defeat moderate Democrat Sen. Gabe Romas. Ramos was 1 of 7 moderate Democrats that Heinrich went after. Moderates lost 5 of the 7 seats. Correa Hemphill has been telling people Heinrich has asked her to run for Lt. Governor in 2026 and become his running mate should he run for Governor in 2026. We hear Ramos is defeating Correa Hemphill in polling in the district so it's not surprising she's dropping out. She sees the anti-progressive movement coming her way. 

Our sources report that Correa Hemphill's polling shows her down against Ramos by high single digits. But her decision to head for the exits does not necessarily speak to an anti-progressive wave but it may speak to the new composition of her district. 

The 2020 district she represented was composed of Catron, Grant and Socorro counties, giving it a more Democratic tilt than her new district which includes portions of Grant, Hidalgo and Luna counties.

While the new District 28 has 48 percent registered Democrats, a Dem consultant says polling shows 12 percent of those Dems identify as conservative and 83 percent of independents, who make up 23 percent of the registered voters, identify as conservative. 

That makes the district fertile ground for the Republicans since Correa Hemphill only won by 386 votes against a Republican in the 2020 general election and has never run in Hidalgo or Luna counties.

A POLITICAL FUTURE?

The notion that the outgoing senator could get involved in the 2026 race for Lt. Governor is not without foundation. She seriously considered running for the Dem nomination for the southern congressional seat in 2022, but Sen. Heinrich adopted Gabe Vasquez as his favorite and kept Correa Hemphill out. 

We covered Heinrich's endorsement of Vasquez and Correa Hemphill's decision not to run for the US House on our Sept. 21, 2021 blog

Correa Hemphill reported $93,000 in cash on hand in her campaign account at the end of March. 

SENATE OUTLOOK

The Senate is currently dominated by the Dems 27 to 15. Consultants on both sides of the aisle predict the margin will be similar following the November election, the first under the redistricting that followed the 2020 census. 

While Ramos would add to the GOP numbers, Dems are destined to pick up Senate District 30 in Cibola county where the winner of the Dem primary--either conservative Dem and former Senator Clemente Sanchez or progressive Angel Charley--will win the seat in November as no R is running. However, progressive Charley is heavily favored to take the primary which has a large Native American vote. 

YES, AN ENDORSEMENT

Speaking of Heinrich and his many endorsements, we reported last week that he had "indirectly endorsed" ABQ Dem senate candidate Heather Berghmans who is challenging Sen. Daniel Ivey-Soto in the primary. But what does that mean? 

Well, it turns out Heinrich has explicitly endorsed Berghmans, according to her literature. We called it "indirect" because it is Heinrich's wife, Julie, who was put forth as the hosts for a Berghmans and Angel Charly fund-raiser this Wednesday--not the Senator. Our use of the word "indirect" was incorrect. But then it's not easy easy tracking of all the races the state's "First Endorser" gets involved in. Try it when you have a spare week or two. 

NO ENDORSEMENT

And in an early blog draft Thursday we said that MLG had issued "a rare endorsement" in the Democratic primary for Santa Fe District Attorney Mary Carmack-Altwies who is being challenged by former DA Marco Serna. The Governor has not endorsed a candidate. However, she did give complimentary quotes about both candidates to their campaigns that they are using in their literature. Go figure. . .

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2024

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