Earlier polling has sent mixed messaging but the survey from Emerson College, ranked #9 in the nation among nearly 300 polling firms by the 538 analysis site, gives us a clearer picture of where we may be headed on November 5.
The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent, was taken August-20-22 among 965 registered voters on cellphones, landlines and online.
Emerson poll summary here. Complete survey here.
The poll took place during during the Democratic National Convention so there may be a bump for the majority party which is the argument Republicans will make.
But the survey also comes after the Biden withdrawal and the Harris ascension that has given Democrats fresh enthusiasm.
Overall we think this survey will be similar to the trends that the respected Research and Polling survey will find when it conducts their polling for the ABQ Journal.
Dem consultant David Alcon, like others we asked, believes there's been enough time for voters to digest the national political changes and the major local races:
Joe, I feel this survey is accurate. The southern congressional race may be tighter because of the Dems post-convention bump but it's well on the way to being closed out. The Republicans will need to double down on the negative there and they will. Overall Democrats appear to be sticking with their brand represented by Harris/Walz. Some Hispanic men have slipped but women are overwhelmingly on the Dem side.
Emerson says the poll consisted of 43 percent Democrats, 31
percent Republicans and 26 percent independents. That's in line with
state registration numbers (with independents a bit higher) but strong GOP turnout could increase their percentage of the electorate.
HEINRICH BREAKS OUT
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| Sen. Heinrich |
Let's get to the poll and begin with the Senate race.
It was just last Wednesday that we were blogging about how Heinrich had not yet put away his Republican opponent and how that could hurt any 2026 Governor aspirations he may have. Those aspirations may still take a hit but this new polling puts him on a solid path to re-election.
Emerson has Dem Senator Martin Heinrich with a nearly 12 point lead over Republican Nella Domenici. He leads 49.2 to 37.3 percent with 4.3 percent saying that they would vote for "someone else" and 9.3 percent undecided.
That's much better for Heinrich than earlier surveys that had Heinrich in the low 40's. But the results are the same for Domenici who has struggled to reach 40 percent in any survey.
Domenici has raised plenty of money (she has donated $1.5 million of her personal fortune) but her hesitancy to hop on board the Trump train in order to appeal to Democrats appears to be costing her with R's and not doing much good with Dems.
Also, Heinrich launched early negative ads against Domenici that are generally seen as effective in holding her back.
The poll is a blow for Domenici as she works to persuade the national Republicans to get more heavily involved in the race, although the national party has helped some in the early going.
Heinrich has run a "running scared" campaign, even bowing out from appearing at the Dem national convention, attacking Domenici from the right over her hedge fund's association with "communist China" and repeatedly circulating polls in fund-raising missives that show a tighter race.
The unusually high 20 percent of voters that said they were undecided in some previous polls are gone in Emerson's survey and now at 9 percent.
Emerson pushed the undecideds in the presidential survey to say which candidate they "leaned" toward. It is not known if they did the same in the Senate race but that would be one explanation for the drop in undecideds from previous polling.
DOMENICI STANDING
Martin knows he has a decent lead but is trying to raise as much money as he can as Nella's personal wealth could come raining down in the final months.
As the incumbent Heinrich is closer to his final Election Night number. Domenici has lots of room to grow but she has been on a slow learning curve.
She first refused to say whether Trump was correct in stating that the 2020 election was stolen and has had trouble dealing with the tricky abortion issue.
Last week she finally agreed that the '20 election was not stolen. She first refused to answer that question posed by the Roswell Daily Record and KKOB radio's TJ Trout. She has also come with a TV spot stating she does not favor a national ban on abortion but remains quiet on her stance on other key aspects of the abortion debate.
Her attempts at building a middle ground approach are in a state that has grown more Blue and polarized since her father, Pete Domenici, held a Senate seat over 15 years ago.
PREZ RACE
In the presidential race Emerson has Harris leading Trump 52.2 to 42.0 percent with 5.8 percent undecided. Harris’ lead decreases to eight points when the undecided voters are asked who they lean toward. With third-party candidates on the ballot, Harris leads by 11 points, 51% to 40%, while 3% support Robert Kennedy Jr.
Trump has lost New Mexico twice--by 10.79 percent in 2020 and by 8.22 percent in 2020.
Harris' lead is slightly better than the six or seven points Biden was beating Trump by in the polls before he withdrew.
Trump's 42 percent signals he has consolidated the conservative NM base--something Domenici has not yet done--but he once again faces a Blue wall as he tries to go much higher.
This poll points to New Mexico voting for the Dem presidential ticket for the fifth election in a row.
CONGRESS ACTION
The top of ticket Harris strength is good news not only for Heinrich but for Dem Reps Melanie Stansbury and Teresa Leger Fernandez who are both far ahead in their races, according to Emerson. The presidential race has impact on the down ballot contests.
Stansbury is beating Republican Steve Jones of Roswell 51.0 to 36.7 percent with 12.3 percent undecided.
In the northern seat Rep. Leger Fernandez receives 51.8 percent while Republican Sharon Clahchischilliage polls at 39.4 percent. Undecided is at 8.8 percent.
VASQUEZ VS. HERRELL
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| Herrell and Vasquez |
Rep. Gabe Vasquez has a nearly 10 point lead over Republican Yvette Herrell. He polls at 50.3 percent to her 40.5 with 9.2 percent undecided.
This is the first important public polling in the race and casts the southern congressional contest as lean Democratic instead of the toss-up contest seen by most pundits.
We pronounced the race "lean Dem" earlier this year and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia has the same ranking. This poll is going to influence future pundit rankings.
Herrell has started the tricky task of going after the character of Vasquez who has had some minor run-ins with the law but that Herrell is working to sensationalize.
The major policy issue is the southern border which favors Herrell and abortion which favors Vasquez.
This is still the race to watch this cycle. The southern district is known as tough to poll. But a 10 point edge, even if wrong by half, can't be ignored.
The district became more Democratic under the redistricting. Biden would have carried it by six points if he had run in the new boundaries in 2020. So a lead for Vasquez makes sense but Republicans question a lead this large.
Outside interests are still expected to spend millions on TV ads to influence the outcome. They've already started.
The 2024 results could settle the question of whether going forward the district belongs in the toss-up or lean D column.
MLG POLLING WOES
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| Tim Walz and MLG |
40.9 percent of the electorate in Emerson approve of the job the Governor is doing while 48.4 percent disapprove and 10.6 percent are undecided.
The MLG results are bad but not horrible, but that is of little comfort to the Governor who will now be even more encouraged to try to get a job with Harris, if the VP can win the November election.
If Harris loses, two more years of MLG bickering with the Legislature and more alienation from the public is probably in the cards, just as it was for previously cursed second term Governors Martinez and Richardson.
WHY THE SLIDE?
From our window we see our current Governor's unpopularity resulting from the never-ending ABQ crime wave; the increase in homelessness; the anemic economy--especially for middle and low income New Mexicans; the ongoing failure of CYFD which regularly makes sensational and negative headlines; the continuing disappointing outcomes in education and last but certainly not least, the recent collapse in her relationship with the Legislature as seen at the failed July special session on public safety.
Her low approval provides the GOP with hope that they can be competitive in the 2026 Guv election but they are still searching for names with gravitas to take on that uphill task.
Sec. of Interior Deb Haaland and Sen. Heinrich are mentioned most in political circles as possible '26 Dem Guv candidates.
TOP ISSUES
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| Joe Monahan |
The economy is the top issue for 29% of New Mexico voters, followed by crime (18%), immigration (13%), education (11%), healthcare (10%), housing affordability (6%), and threats to democracy (6%).
“Voters who find the economy to be the top issue break for Trump, 54% to 38%, crime, 47% to 45%, and immigration 89% to 9%.
Voters who find education, healthcare, housing affordability, threats to democracy, and abortion all break for Harris significantly, an average of 82% to 15%.”
Emerson has put in the polling foundation for what's to come in the next two months. Will that foundation be shaken by still unknown events?
As always, stay tuned.
This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.
