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| Vasquez and MLG |
How important is abortion to Democratic hopes in New Mexico this fall? So important that even Rep. Gabe Vasquez shed his usual caution and showed up for the groundbreaking of a new $10 million reproductive health center in Las Cruces hosted by Gov. Lujan Grisham, one of the nation's leading pro-choice advocates.
Vasquez is the same congressman who has fled the scene whenever President Biden comes anywhere near the state line, fearing that Biden's liberal credentials (and unpopularity) in the southern district would rub off on him.
But what a difference the Supreme Court's rebuke of Roe V. Wade has made.
In 2022 Vasquez struggled to overcome GOP US Rep. Yvette Herrell, managing just a 1,350 vote win and setting up another tense rematch this year. The Supreme Court ruling came in June 2022 but by then Herrell had already excelled in adorning Vasquez with high negatives.
But that ruling has grown legs. It has supercharged women voters here and around the nation and turnout will be higher in a presidential year than it was in '22. That is especially impactful in districts like Vasquez's where just a slight bump in Dem enthusiasm could be enough to keep him in the winner's circle.
And the issue is cutting across party lines with many Republican women expressing pro-choice views, making it even safer for Vasquez to be less circumspect in publicly embracing MLG and absorbing the predictable arrows from the GOP that his abortion position, like MLG's, is "extreme."
That Emerson College poll showing Vasquez beating Herrell by nearly ten points is likely an outlier, taken during the hubbub of the national Dem convention, but it does represent the worst case scenario for the GOP.
Their plan to take Vasquez out by forcing immigration, inflation and crime to the top of voters concerns is still alive and Democrats still have to get the vote out.
Still, the true lean of the district under redistricting is Democratic and enthusiasm among Dem women in Las Cruces and ABQ's South Valley, which make up more than half the vote, would be potentially deadly to any Republican.
VASQUEZ AS WEAK
We've perceived Vasquez as a somewhat weak candidate--a perception not unshared by observers we consider astute, but political operative Jake McCook thinks that's too tough on the freshman lawmaker:
Come on, Joe! Vasquez a “weak candidate with an unsettled past to exploit." Are you sure you weren’t talking about Yvette Herrell? How many times must New Mexico Republicans lose for La Politica to give any serious credit where credit is due? While Herrell has been holding fundraisers behind closed doors, Gabe can be seen across the district meeting with people and bringing their concerns straight to Washington. She won’t even meet with the downwinders to tell them straight to their faces why she won’t push House Speaker Johnson to pass the bipartisan RECA bill. Maybe the 10 point lead (in the Emerson poll) is a validation of Gabe’s hard work, and Herrell’s lazy approach to letting the NRCC do her bidding?
We're not sure we agree with all of that heartfelt rant but long ago our journalism professors insisted that we give equal time. So there it is. . .
We will say this: If Vasquez wins this race, the 2nd Congressional District will very likely drop off the list of swing districts in 2024, giving him breathing room to be more of the liberal on abortion and other issues that he truly is--and in the process looking and being more genuine.
SENATE AND ABORTION
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| Domenici |
She made a splash when she demanded via a cease and desist letter that Heinrich's campaign drop a TV ad that infers she is in favor of a national ban on abortion when she has repeatedly rejected that position. But Heinrich, pushing the envelope, wrote in his column that he is not backing away from that controversial attack:
The same forces that led to Roe’s demise are backing Nella Domenici, hoping to finish the job. They’ve handpicked her to secure the majority they need to impose their extreme agenda and ban abortion nationwide, including here in New Mexico. They are bankrolling her campaign, flooding the airwaves with deceptive ads, trying to trick voters into believing she’s something that she’s not.
That is Heinrich, who has been consistent as they come on abortion, putting up a fence around Bernalillo county, the state's largest and a county that has been voting overwhelmingly Democratic for several cycles. That abortion is his centerpiece shows how well the issue is polling in the cities for the D's.
CRACKING THE CODE
The Domenici camp has known from the start that cracking big BernCo is the key to an upset. But she is left with the crime scourge to move the numbers. For a variety of reasons--some of them perplexing--that issue has not animated the electorate here as much as might be expected in a town riddled with constant crime. The big tell was the easy re-election of Mayor Keller in 2021 and his so far uninterrupted march toward another victory in 2025.
Maybe all that changes. Nella was strong when she took on the crime crisis directly, planting herself in the crime-ridden SE Heights with APD and absorbing and reporting frankly on the dismal scenes she encountered, filled with the heartbreak and trauma that crime has inflicted on the city. In her column she said:
Martin Heinrich is wrong. We need more federal law enforcement personnel, and resources — not less. Not only does Heinrich reject them when offered, he doesn’t know how to bring federal resources when they are needed in to address New Mexico’s violent cartels, sex and human traffickers, gangs, and drug dealers.
To the chagrin of Domenici's supporters, this New Mexico election appears to be increasingly nationalized for the majority Democrats with reproductive rights again soaring in importance leaving crime, the economy and immigration if not in the dust, at least five or six lengths behind.
This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.
