Is it back to the future for Donald Trump in New Mexico?
In 2020 Joe Biden put Trump away here with a ten point win (54-44). In the ABQ Journal poll released Sunday and conducted September 6-13, Kamala Harris sports a ten point lead over the former President, 49 to 39, with 5 percent for other candidates and only 7 percent undecided. Four percent said neither.
Obviously the poll does not bode well for Trump which is not surprising. The state has long been a solid Dem member of the electoral college, awarding its five electoral votes to the Democrat since 2008.
The Journal US Senate Race poll was released Monday and confirmed Sen. Martin Heinrich's lead over Republican Nella Domenici that other polls reported. The Journal has it 50 to 38 for Heinrich with 9 percent undecided and four percent choosing neither.The race is rated Safe Dem and we'll have more on it this week but today we look at the prez polling.
Harris leads in all geographic areas except the conservative Eastside.
Men support Trump 46-44 while women go for Harris 54 to 33, a massive 21 point margin.
That lead among women emphasizes the importance that abortion will again have on voting behavior as well as Harris' rapid acceptance here since replacing President Biden on the ticket. But Dems will be lucky to see her campaign here as her time is consumed by the seven swing states that will decide the election.
The margin of error in the survey is plus or minus 4.2 percent. As usual, the Journal used live interviews of likely voters which is the most reliable method, according to pollsters.
The more ominous side of the poll for the GOP is in the southern congressional district where Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez faces a stiff challenge from Republican Yvette Herrell. But how stiff when Trump is poised to lose the state by a wide margin and based on the poll's geographic results could lose the Vasquez district?
Trump only leads on the conservative Eastside 54-36 but ongoing population loss there has weakened its muscle. And much of it is no longer in the 2nd CD. In the Southwest region that includes Grant and Hidalgo counties Trump loses 46 to 42.
The 2021 redistricting of the district no longer lurks. It is staring us in the face.
Biden would have carried the present district boundaries by six points in 2020. Pollster Brian Sanderoff says the presidential race will have a strong influence over who wins the congressional race as well as the few swing legislative districts on the ballot this year.
Most critically, in the ABQ metro, which includes the ABQ South Valley that is now in the Vasquez district, Harris commands a 54-38 lead. Herrell may be closer than that in the heavy Hispanic Valley where voters can sometimes tilt conservative, but is it enough to win a solid majority that she appears to need there to overtake Vasquez district-wide?
She will give it her all and has reason to believe that she can still pull it off. Among Hispanic voters statewide the Journal poll says Trump polls at 36 percent. That's a good showing for a GOP contender. In 2004 George W. Bush received about 40 percent of the Hispanic voters here, a high water mark for the GOP.
AN INSIDER TAKE
A Democratic operative with inside knowledge of the campaign reports that the 2nd CD contest remains close with Vasquez ahead. They inform:
It's close. He is up. He has a lot more money than her. And she seems to be running the old playbook against him that didn’t work. At this point he wins by 3-4.
Vasquez has a two to one money lead over Herrell but both parties are coming with large pots of outside cash that is keeping her fueled in the competitive race.
The Journal will not poll the race until late October.
An Emerson College poll aken Aug 20-22 had Vasquez with a lead of 50-41. That poll now appears to reflect the optimum outcome for the Democrats but with Trump's back against the wall here the Dems have to be encouraged as they battle to keep the New Mexico seat so critical to them to taking the majority in the US House.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Inside Politics with Nathan Gonzales continue to rank the Vasquez-Herrell contest a Toss-Up. The University of Virginia's Larrry Sabato has it Lean Democrat.
ABORTION DIVIDE
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| Herrell (NYT) |
"(The Republicans real agenda is to) block women’s reproductive health care,” Vasquez told about 50 people at a groundbreaking for a new, $10 million state-funded reproductive health clinic. “We’ve seen the consequences of what this means for women.”. . . He has worked to use Herrell’s anti-abortion rights voting record and previous remarks on the issue against her, including a 2020 video clip in which she said during a Republican candidate forum: “I wish we could have eliminated all abortion in this state.”
Ms. Herrell, unlike some Republicans who have airbrushed or downright misrepresented their past records on the issue, says she is proud of her stance on abortion, including her backing for legislation that would grant legal personhood to fertilized eggs, effectively criminalizing the termination of a pregnancy and potentially aspects of in vitro fertilization treatment.
MAYOR WHO?
Speculation is starting to percolate in Santa Fe over who will run for mayor next year. Current Mayor Alan Webber is keeping folks guessing on whether he will seek a third term while other possible candidates start to pop up. We met up with the New Mexican as the name game takes off.
(Is it safe to say that Councilor Michael Garcia is about to come in and that Webber will eventually opt out? We think so. And will a surge in City Different crime be the #1 issue in the race?. . . You betcha.)
This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.
