They say the apple doesn't fall from the tree but in the case of Nella Domenici Nella she's not even in the same orchard as her legendary father, Pete Domenici, the longest serving US Senator in state history. 

She is getting blown out in the polls, whatever missiles she fires at Sen. Martin Heinrich don't seem to hit their target and there is zero national buzz about her reclaiming the seat.

What is going so wrong for a candidate who is much better than her dreary polling numbers indicate? 

This is a candidate who had the acumen to amass a multi-million dollar fortune; a woman able to survive the rough and tumble of male dominated Wall Street to amass that hedge fund fortune; a candidate who took a law degree at Georgetown while holding down a full-time job and later graduated from Harvard Business School. And yet. . .

Domenici, 63, tried to sell herself as an updated version of her moderate GOP father but the introduction immediately fell flat for several reasons. She has lived primarily on the east coast her adult life and has had very little involvement in public affairs here. She was unknown and neither liked or disliked. Worse, her initial pitch did not make voters seem curious to find out more. 

By clinging tightly to her father's coattails at the outset of the campaign, but having no record of her own (being born here is not a record) she looked more like an opportunist than the scion of a legend. That was back in June and July but the image appears to have stuck. 

The same thing happened to her brother, attorney Pete Domenici, Jr. who entered the 2010 gubernatorial race with a splash only to finish fourth in a five way primary that was won by Susana Martinez, even though his father had only left the Senate in 2009.

It’s not all their fault. New Mexicans don't take kindly to dynastic politics.

Gary King, the son, of three term Governor Bruce King, couldn’t get his engine started when he ran for Governor in 2014. Edward Lujan, brother of popular US Rep. Manuel Lujan, Jr. faltered when he tried to succeed him in the late 80's. Mike Runnels, son of former southern Dem US Rep.  Harold Runnels, made it to lieutenant governor in the 80's but that was the end.  

That mold was broken once when Ben Ray Lujan, son of longtime state House Speaker Ben Lujan, was elected to the US Senate in 2020.

THEN THERE’S TRUMP

Then there's Trump. 

That may be even more important to why Nella has not caught fire. In an era of hyper partisanship, she shied away from the former president, trying to appease Dems and swing voters by refusing to say whether she would vote for him this year or had voted for him in the past. 

She also threw water in the face of the Trumpers by saying she would not go after his endorsement. 

But today’s GOP is Trump's GOP. On her own she has simply been unable to consolidate the conservative GOP base in the state, never mind make inroads with the Dems and independents she must have to get close to Heinrich. 

TALE OF THE TAPE

Let's look inside Nella's numbers in the SurveyUSA conducted September 12-18 in which Heinrich beats her 47 to 34 percent with 19 undecided. They tell the tale:

In the presidential poll released this week Harris beats Trump here 50 to 42 percent. That's an eight point deficit for Trump compared to Domenici's 13 point deficit--47-34--with Democrat Heinrich.

Among Republicans Domenici manages only 74 percent support against Heinrich while Trump receives 88 percent GOP support against Harris. (There's her Trump problem) He has consolidated the GOP base and she still has not.

Women, who Domenici has courted assiduously while stressing that she is not an anti-abortion zealot, aren't buying in. Domenici loses them 50 to 28 percent. Abortion remains an albatross for most Republicans, no matter how they try to fade the heat. 

Hispanics, who one might think Domenici would have entree with because of her father, fail to show up for her. Heinrich out polls her 46 to 29 percent while Trump manages a much better 39 percent of the Hispanic vote against Harris who gets 53 percent.

In Bernalillo county, key to a statewide victory, Domenici has not even begun to chip away at the Blue wall. She trails Heinrich here by a massive 55 to 30 percent.

Domenici even loses men to Heinrich, the most reliable GOP voters, who give him 45 percent to her 39. 

That does nothing to help her overcome the huge if not unexpected gap she has with women where Heinrich scores 50 percent to her 28.

DECEIVINGLY VULNERABLE

Not that Heinrich, 52, isn't showing some weakness as he seeks a third term. In the ABQ Journal poll he is right on the money number of 50 percent--not above. Domenici is still breathing, if struggling for air.

His name ID has not been particularly strong and encouraged Domenici's bid against him. 

His identity despite nearly 20 years on the scene remains muddled. And his legislative record is not robust. 

Would a different GOP candidate, say a youngish Hispanic man or woman, have a better shot? Perhaps.

But Heinrich is one the more effective campaigners the state has produced, starting his races low and finishing high. He can be seen as overcautious--as when he recently dumped Biden--but his chess moves work. And his low-key personality has worn well. Think of a laid back Jeff Bingaman, another longtime NM Senator. Heinrich's middle class background rounds out an image that many voters find relatable.

While Heinrich has appeared deceivingly vulnerable, the past glory of Domenici's father has failed to form a solid foundation for her and Donald Trump is a wall that the determined Domenici has yet to jump over.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics