The numbers quickly snuffed out the off the wall speculation that somehow Trump--who has lost two races here--could now be competitive; that the US Senate race was actually tight and that the southern congressional district remains a toss up district when it is now lean Democratic.
That's a mouthful to digest for even the hungriest of political pundits who now await confirmation of the trends Emerson found but perhaps with less of an enthusiasm gap between the two major parties.
They will get that confirmation--or nonconfirmation--later this month when ABQ Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff goes into the field. He tells me the first Journal poll (two are expected for the cycle) will be published September 15 with the results of the presidential and US Senate races.
The main point of discussion--if not contention--about the Emerson survey taken Aug. 20-22 during the Democratic National Convention is over the nearly 10 point lead (50.3 to 40.5%) that Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez held over Republican Yvette Herrell in the southern congressional district.
Sanderoff has long pointed out the difficulty of polling the sprawling and heavily rural area but in 2022 legislative redistricting added a large swath of Bernalillo county's South Valley and Westside to the district. Combined with Dona Ana county these Democratic leaning urban areas are where more than half the vote will come from in the Herrell-Vasquez contest. And those urban areas are easier to survey.
While few expect the Journal to show Vasquez with a ten point lead, the enthusiasm of Democrats, particularly women for VP Harris, seems to be the wind at his back and giving him a decent lead.
Vasquez won a nail-biter over Herrell in 2022 (50.31% - 49.67%). He was--by the reckoning of consultants on both sides--a weak candidate with an unsettled past to exploit.
Herrell has come up some new attack lines over Vasquez's character that voters are not familar with but unlike '22 she now appears to be fighting a wave of enthusiam by Democrats for their party and abortion rights. Vasquez's foibles do not seem as crucial as she might hope.
A PERMANENT LEAN?
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| Herrell and Vasquez |
If the Journal poll shows the battle closer--with Herrell not behind by more than four points--the race will be reheated. If not, the Democratic lean of the district will be affirmed and New Mexico will be on the way to losing its only swing congressional district.
Sanderoff and the Journal will have an easy time of it with the other races. The Emerson survey has been enough for national and local political consultants to close out the presidential race here in favor of Harris; to put the US Senate contest firmly in Heinrich's corner; the ABQ congressional seat safely in Rep. Stansbury's hands and ditto for the northern congressional district held by Rep. Leger Fernandez.
But politics is about surprises and what seems assured today can quickly turn. We can't say we're not hoping for some as we settle in for yet another final 60 day campaign stretch.
SATELLITE INTERNET (CONT.)
More of our continuing coverage now on why the state Office of Broadband, the Legislature and the Governor need to start rolling out high speed internet access much faster in rural New Mexico and do it by utilizing satellite service and other high speed alternatives to laying fiber which is taking years and years and putting New Mexico's kids at an educational disadvantage. Here's reader Dan Warren who has been helping us track developments:
Joe, You are right about Starlink being a quick solution for internet service in rural areas.
I have been very satisfied with the service which I have had for about 1 1/2 years. The internet is fast and being able to make good quality phone calls using WiFi calling is great.
Starlink has also had the mobile system for RVs which you have previously reported on. Now they came out with a smaller portable system that works using DC voltage and they say you can take it backpacking. You may need to have the bigger home system to get it, but if you do need it, the additional cost is pretty reasonable.
Longtime satellite internet provider Viasat may be feeling the pinch brought on by Starlink. I used to pay $127 for their mediocre service and now I think they are down to $99 a month.
Several companies are gearing up to provide cell phone service that will connect directly to a satellite, so you will be able to make phone calls from the middle of nowhere where cell towers don't exist. Here is a link to a story on Space News.
Thanks for tuning in here this week.
Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.
This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.
