The writing may not be on the wall yet but the lead sentences of New Mexico Campaign '24 are being etched.

With widespread early in-person voting set to begin October 19 and with precious little time after that to change the campaign narrative for the November 5 election, here is where we are at.

PRESIDENT

As in '16 and '20 the presidential race here made political hearts flutter early but that has long since faded. Harris is expected to beat Trump here by six to ten points. The state lost its swing status in presidential contests back in 2008 but that is still a tough pill for many to swallow.

The 538 site curent track puts the race here at 54.4 percent for Harris and 45.7 percent for Trump, a lead of 8.7 percent. In 2020 Biden beat Trump here by 10.79 percent.

US SENATE

This race has also fallen into the solid Dem camp after a brief kerfuffle over its standing. Dem. Sen. Martin Heinrich is expected to win a third, six year term. If he does and the Dems manage to keep control of the Senate--an uphill struggle--he is now "widely expected" to become chairman of the Senate Energy Committee. The latest from Axios Pro:

Heinrich is the overwhelming favorite for chair, unless he's tapped for a role in the Harris administration.

It would seem Heinrich's chances of seeking the '26 Dem gubernatorial nomination go up if he doesn't get the chairmanship. The job possibility with a victorious Harris is new speculation. 

On the Guv front, Heinrich continues to dance:

The way I make these decisions--and it’s heavily influenced by family, obviously--is I try to figure out where I can make the biggest difference for the state of New Mexico. Right now, I believe that’s in the United States Senate.”

Secretary of Interior Deb Haaland has also signaled she is interested in a Dem Guv run. 

We put up two Domenici ads this week attacking Heinrich on crime. Here is a new Heinrich ad on the fentanyl crisis.

No US Senator has been defeated for re-election in New Mexico since 1982 when Dem Jeff Bingaman ousted first-termer Republican Jack Schmitt. 

Domenici would be the state's first female US Senator.

US HOUSE

Dems are favored to keep the state's three US House seats. ABQ Dem Rep. Stansbury and northern Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez are in heavy Dem districts. The southern district now leans toward Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez. His challenge from Republican Yvette Herrell is stiff but she is losing by nine points in two different polls. 

That polling can't be ignored, says longtime political analyst and attorney Greg Payne:

That race is essentially over--unless there is a late shocker--but it is interesting how the district has gone from a swing district to one that will now likely be permanently Democratic. 

538 says: 

Vasquez wins the seat 84 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 House election. Herrell wins the seat 16 times out of 100.

The site's track currently has the finish at 53.7 for Vasquez and 46.3 percent for Herrell, a difference of 7.4 percent. 

In 2022 Vasquez beat Herrell by just 1,350 votes or 50.3% to 49.6%, a difference of 0.7 percent.

STATE SENATE AND HOUSE 

Maybe a seat or two either way seems to be the consensus for the senate. All 42 seats are up for election. Dems control the chamber 27 to 15. The chances of no party making any gains is also on the table. 

Republican Nicole Tobiassen is favored to beat Dem Athena Christodoulou in ABQ NE Heights District 21 to replace retiring GOP Sen. Mark Moores. This is now the only Republican state senate seat based in Bernalillo county.

In the House, Dem party leadership is hoping for at least a two seat pickup that would take their majority  from 45 to 47 in the 72 member chamber. The GOP is also hoping for two pickups. There is enough competitive districts for either side to prevail.

The only GOP House seat left in BernCo is District 31 where Republican Nicole Chavez appears to hold a lead over Dem Vicky Estrada-Bustillo in a race that could go down to the wire.

A trio of losses by conservative Democrats Dems in the June primary will be the main ideological driver in the new Legislature, making the House more liberal even if the minority Republicans were to pick up a seat or two.

That's where we stand now. We'll update the forecast along the way 

DON'T GIVE UP 

Some may recall that for a number of years we pounded the table for a dental school in ABQ but frankly gave up. Now from the city comes this welcome word:

The City of Albuquerque joined Touro University to break ground on New Mexico’s first undergraduate dental clinical training facility. Located on the campus of Lovelace Biomedical Research Institute (LBRI) in Albuquerque, this new facility will serve as a clinical branch of Touro College of Dental Medicine (TCDM), providing essential training for 200 dental students, with plans to open in May 2025. 

Mayor Keller: “Not only will it help fill a critical shortage of dental professionals in our community, but our young people will have the opportunity to pursue careers in dentistry right here. This first-of-its-kind facility will help build. . .access to affordable dental care for those who need it most.  

Touro University is committed to delivering quality education as well as integrity, inclusivity, and respect for all members of our new Touro community in New Mexico,” said Touro University President Alan Kadish, M.D.

Touro President Kadish points out that New Mexico faces a severe dentist shortage, with only 48.4 dentists per 100,000 people, below the national average of 60.84. He anticipates that there will be a significant number of graduates who remain in New Mexico to pursue their dental careers.

We hope he's right about the graduates staying here since rural areas of the state can often be a dental desert.  

In any event, we'll celebrate this news after many years of waiting, but not with anything that will give us a cavity. 

THE BOTTOM LINES

We'll talk politics and the election on KKOB radio at 5 p.m. today with TJ Trout. Stop by if you get the chance. . .

We will broadcast an Election Eve preview on public radio KANW 89.1 FM on November 4 at 5 p.m. Our Election Night coverage on the public radio outlet will start at 6:30 p.m. November 5. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.