SurveyUSA, polling for KOB-TV, finally came with a survey of the southern congressional district that shows Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez with a substantial nine point lead over Republican Yvette Herrell--51 to 42 with 8 percent undecided.
What makes the poll conducted among 582 likely voters Sept. 26-30 have added significance is the confirmation it gives to an Emerson College poll taken Aug 20-22 and hat also showed Vasquez with a nine point lead 50-41 with with 9percent undecided.
That survey was scoffed at by political pros because Vasquez barely beat Herrell in 2022--by only1,350 votes--and her races in 2018 and 2020 were also nail biters. But the company ranks high in accuracy and appears on the way to being vindicated in this race.
The reasons for the Democrat apparently breaking away? The same we've given since Emerson hit the streets.
--Vasquez is in a friendly Democratic district following the congressional redistricting and it is now taking hold. He was a poor candidate and an unknown when he inched by Herrell in 2022. Today he is more seasoned and known and is commanding more respect with Democrats who must cross over to give Herrell a chance.
--Abortion is an issue that has jolted the Dem female electorate since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and continues to cause tremors--even with some GOP women. Herrell started at 48 percent in the early polling but has come down some 7 points following strident attacks by the Dems on her pro-life position,
--A large swath of ABQ's westside and the South Valley--both heavy Dem--are now in the district. While there can be a conservative lean there, this election it may be overwhelmed by reproductive choice.
THE TOP ISSUES
Abortion ranks second in importance as an issue in the 2nd congressional district, according to the SurveyUSA which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent. That's high enough to help take Vasquez into rarefied polling air for a district that is been an expensive battleground and closely watched around the nation.
The poll is especially welcome in DC where the Dems need to pick up a handful of seats to take control from the R's and must hold seats like the New Mexico distrcit held by Vasquez.
Inflation is cited as the third most important issue in the poll at 16 percent of voters. Crime is fourth at 12 percent.
That low ranking in the importance of crime can be attributed in part to the large portion of the district that is rural in nature and where crime is nowhere near as rampant as it is in the ABQ metro area.
We reported this week that Vasquez has turned down an October 16 KOB-TV vote because he was probably polling well and did not want to drop the ball on statewide TV. This poll confirms that analysis and then some.
Vazquez, a protege of Sen. Martin Heinrich, still has a way to go to seal the deal but it will take a herculean effort by Herrell and the Republicans in these final weeks.
The ABQ Journal plans to come will come with a poll on the race later this month.
THOSE TV ADS
Do you notice how the media fact-checking of the initial campaign ads is hot and heavy and then fades away as the campaign goes on. We're as guilty as anyone in that regard. All media is simply overwhelmed by the sheer number of spots and hard-pressed to fact check each and every one. Unfortunately that probably has given rise to ads that stretch the truth.
Having said that, here is a new round of ads making their way to a TV screen near you.
The national Democrats come with this spot focusing on Yvette Herrell and her stance on the cost of prescription drugs and the future of Social Security and Medicare. The obvious focus is senior voters.
The campaign of GOP US Senate hopeful Nella Domenici is putting up two new ads on crime:
The Nella for Senate campaign launched two new TV ads slamming Heinrich for the out-of-control crime crisis in New Mexico. In the ad title, Tyrna“ the wife of an Albuquerque police officer calls out Heinrich for being out of touch and allowing the problem to get worse. In the other ad, Crisis," Martin’s record of turning a blind eye to drugs and violence he has allowed to get worse.
IT'S THE ECONOMY
 |
| Stansbury, Jeffries, Jones |
To that end, Dem US Rep. Melanie Stansbury, seeking re-election against Republican Steve Jones of Roswell, hosted US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries recently at an event at ABQ's New Hope Full Gospel Church.
She's pictured here with Leader Jeffries and Sandoval County Commissioner Joshua Jones on the right.
Her office says:
Leader Jeffries and Rep. Stansbury touched on a broad range of topics including how Democrats are delivering for Americans in tangible ways like lowering costs for Americans, expanding access to healthcare, protecting the environment, and ensuring our democracy stays secure. “We have brought millions of dollars back to New Mexico through federal programs, legislation, and Community Project Funding that support education, housing, healthcare, infrastructure, and economic development. . Stansbury said.
"House Democrats will continue to lean into lowering housing costs and growing the middle class with a particular emphasis on access to affordable homeownership," said Leader Jeffries. "Being able to purchase a home, keeping that home and being able to pass it onto the next generation is central to the great American dream. And we will fight to maintain the principles of free and fair elections and ensure the right to vote, which John Lewis would always say to us, is sacred, is sacrosanct and is essential to the integrity of our democracy. We have to push back against the extreme right-wing efforts to take it away, so one of our top priorities in Congress will be to pass the John Robert Lewis Voting Rights Act."
That voting rights act Jeffries referenced would strengthen aspects of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. It has passed the House but stalled in the Senate.
Stansbury was first elected in a special election in June 2021 to fill the vacancy created when Deb Haaland became Secretary of the Interior.
Under redistricting most of Bernalillo county remained in her First Congressional District but it was extended south and now includes portions of rural counties, most of which sparsely populated.
In 2022 Stansbury won with 56 percent of the vote over Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes Michelle.
The Emerson College poll in August had her beating Jones 51 to 37 with 12 percent undecided.
The seat is rated safe Democratic.
CYFD (ONGOING COVERAGE)
Joe, I commend Rep. Jaramillo for her op-ed on CYFD and taking a stand against the Governor's resistance to outside oversight.
She said: "The problems at CYFD are not funding problems. CYFD is better funded now than it has ever been. The problems at CYFD are the result of a series of organizational failures over decades." A
s someone who has worked in New Mexico's broken child welfare system, she is on the right track but there is more to it. I think it is time for the legislators to take responsibility and own the problem. It's a priority problem, and that is on the legislators.
Yes, CYFD has had organizational failures for years, but legislators have routinely kicked the can down the road and not held the agency's feet to the fire. Only in the last 3-5 years has their been a stronger effort to get legislation passed that would address many issues and provide outside oversight.
If Representative Jaramillo is serious about changing CYFD, I would encourage her to build a coalition of bi-partisan support that is veto-proof. The citizens of this great state want change, solutions exists, and our children that CYFD is supposed to be protecting, deserve better.
Here is a few suggestions in addition to providing outside oversight through the creation of an independent ombudsman.
--A clearly articulated definition of best-interest placement in the children's code that places an emphasis on safety. When the rights of the parents (abusive) intersect with the safety of the child, the safety of the child takes precedence.
--Overhaul of CYFD safety plans that make them verifiable, and include mandated drug testing and compliance with court-ordered plan before reunification can occur.
--Provide specialized training to investigators by trained law enforcement investigators so investigations are more thorough and accurate.
--Enforce the Kevin S. settlement and codify it into law. Give it teeth. CYFD has failed to meet the requirements year after year.
--Increase reimbursements to foster parents.
The legislative session is just a few months away, and this an opportunity to make the children of New Mexico a priority, or as one friend put it, "Put the child back in child welfare".
This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.
