Mayor Keller

On the ABQ political scene Mayor Tim Keller remains at the mercy of the political winds and so far those winds have been friendly when it comes to possible competition. 

No major names appear to be making the rounds looking to challenge Keller's unprecedented run for a third consecutive term next year. (Marty Chavez served three terms but not consecutively).

Our exclusive sources reveal that Keller's popularity remains deep under water. They report that recent polling in ABQ legislative districts included a question on Keller and shows his approval rating ranging from the low 30's with a high point of about 48 percent in one of the districts. 

Dissatisfaction with crime and homelessness in the city is widespread but how deep it goes is an open question. If Keller is so vulnerable why is his defeat not already obvious? 

First, mayor is a thankless job that leads nowhere politically. Second, Keller has poor numbers but he is a top level politician who will not be easy to defeat. Also. . .

The city lacks the vibrant local business scene of the past that produced more passionate and well-known candidates. Walmart and similar companies now dominate here and their interests are more national than local. 

Overall, expectations are lower. The city never really recovered from the 2008-09 economic crash and many potential leaders left town, along with what seems like a mass exodus of young people. Population growth has stagnated for years along with the economy. 

There ares no sign that any of that will change in the foreseeable future and there is no clamor for major change--except, perhaps, on crime.

Jeff Apodaca, whose New Mexico Project is backing conservative Democrats, told us he has three names as possible Keller foes next year (not including himself) but he said they don't want their names circulating. That doesn't sound like serious challenges forming. 

The chances of a candidate successfully sporting the Republican banner are much weaker since RJ Berry won two terms in 2009 and 2013. The city was much less Democratic then and the GOP stronger. The party brand is now cursed for a wide swath of Dem voters.

We mentioned Dem Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman in one of our blogs as a possible candidate but have yet to see much to indicate he is prepping a run. He sought the job in 1997.

NEW CHIEF 

Brunner

Keller is prepping his run. This week he announced Metro Redevelopment Director Terry Brunner as his new Chief of Staff. 

Brunner has been a below-the-radar player in state politics. He sharpened his political skills while serving as state director and campaign manager for Sen. Jeff Bingaman and is the former state director of the USDA Rural Development Office.

This is Keller's sixth chief of staff since he took office in December of 2017. And you thought MLG  ran through personnel. Brunner says:

I think it's a challenging position. No doubt there's a lot happening in the city. I look at it as a city going under a transformation in a lot of ways, and so riding that bucking bronco can be tough. But I think I'm up to the challenge.

Brunner, who holds an M.A in Latin American Studies, is being brought aboard as the '25 campaign is set to begin January 1. That's when the city clerk puts out the 2025 election guide and when mayoral contenders start eyeing that nearly $700,000 in public financing available for qualifying candidates. 

In addition, outside PACS formed in support of the individual candidates have become the norm, adding to the cost of the contest. 

Keller's brand of progressive politics has worn thin when it comes to crime which shadows him as does the still-developing APD DWI scandal. In other areas he gets higher marks (e.g. basic services and housing development efforts).

For those dissatisfied with his leadership, they await a candidate who has the gravitas up to the task. For Keller the longer that wait is, the better.  

SUPER MAJORITY?

If the state House Democrats can pick up two seats at the November election they would have 47 of the 70 seats in the lower chamber. That would constitute two thirds of the House which is called a "super majority." So what is the election goal of the Dems--to pick up two seats, of course. 

Technically a super majority means the House could override a veto from Dem Gov. MLG without any Republican support. But such override attempts are rare and holding all 47 Democrats together for a veto override is nearly impossible. 

What a super majority would do is give House Speaker Javier Martinez the ability to have the make-up of the House committees lean more Democratic which in turn could make the outcome of bills in those committees more predictable. 

In 2019 the House Dems fell one vote short of hitting the historic water mark when they had 46 members. 

We'll see if they break through this year when we bring you Election Night results on KANW. 

UNCOMPLICATED CRIME FIGHT?

San Antonio

Maybe fighting crime in ABQ and Santa Fe doesn't have to be too complicated. Take a look: 

Officials mapped San Antonio to a 300-meter-by-300-meter grid, then analyzed which of its 133,000 cells see the most violent crime and when. . . .Officers in patrol cars with lights flashing then are posted in those places for 15 minutes at peak times. Every 60 days, the grids are reevaluated and police resources shifted to cover the toughest 35 or so cells. . . The result was a 37% decrease in violent crime last year in high crime areas compared with the year prior, an improvement criminologists and the police department are confident contributed to an overall 7.3% reduction in violent crime in the city in 2023.

“When this plan first rolled out, not a whole lot of people were happy with it because it just seemed too simplistic and – again, quite candidly – kind of boring,” San Antonio Police Chief William McManus told the city’s Public Safety Committee in April. “But the fact of the matter is, it’s working, and I think everybody has gotten used to it by now.”

The problem here has been a severe shortage of police officers or inefficient deployment of the current force, to the point that Santa Fe spends millions  on private security to protect their historic downtown Plaza and other areas from the crime wave. Then there's there's the shortage of treatment beds for the drug addicted. 

This, against a backdrop of one of the wealthiest states in the nation with $58 billion in various reserve funds, according to the State Investment Council. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.