We'd relish having some new polling on the hotly contested southern congressional race between Republican Yvette Herrell and Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez. Alas, there is none but we do have info that is second best. 

Vasquez is now refusing to debate Herrell, signaling that he believes the small polling lead he apparently holds is enough to take him across the finish line. 

He will take the hits for being a no-show while avoiding a debate error that could change the narrative with less than 30 days to go before election day. 

Take the hits he is. When it was announced that he will not debate Herrell on KOB-TV on October 16, a GOP posse quickly labeled him "cowardly" and otherwise blasted him with howitzers strong enough to take out a small New Mexico village:

"Chicken Little Gabe Vasquez!” exclaimed the GOP:

Cowardly Gabe Vasquez has chosen to hide away so he doesn't have to be confronted about his past actions, like saying he wanted to defund the police, shut down New Mexico’s oil and gas industry, or the police report disclosing his use of the N-word to harass a co-worker. A true leader will not leave their constituents in the dark, and that is why Yvette Herrell will show up to the debate stage alone.

That leaves us with one public survey that is scorned by Herrell as flawed but is probably causing nightmares for her and her loyal canine companion, Reba.

Flawed as it may have been--and it had its flaws--the Aug. 22-24 Emerson College survey showed Herrell trailing Vasquez by a whopping nine points. 

If that poll did not at least reflect the trend of the race, the Emerson numbers crunchers would have to be doing tequila shots. 

INSIDER POLLING

Rep. Vasquez

Vasquez, seeking a second two year term after a narrow 1,350 vote win over Herrell in 2022, is mum on the debate attacks, and why not? A Dem campaign operative not working in his, gave us this take:

Joe, everything I’ve seen shows Gabe up about two to three percent but momentum is in his direction. Yvette seems stalled out. My sense is that the hits on him over defunding the police are tired and no longer moves people. The transgender stuff she is using is an interesting turn but I also don’t think it’s what’s going to swing the race.

That insider is not alone. 

Inside Politics with Nathan Gonzales in DC has now joined yer little 'ol blog in rating the contest as leaning Dem after ranking it a toss-up all year:

Vasquez has been in the Toss-up category for virtually the entire cycle. But he’s maintained a narrow but consistent edge over former GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell. Time will tell whether a boost in Republican spending will change the dynamic, but for now the rating has shifted from Toss-Up to Tilt Democratic.

FOLLOWING THE MONEY 

About that spending, both Dems and Republicans are putting big dollars to work but a GOP consultant sent us info that shows that in September the race didn't even rank in the top ten in spending in the House races. 

In 2020 when Herrell won, it was the second most expensive race in the nation with an astounding $35 million coming in. In the '22 Herrell-Vasquez race it dropped out of the top ten and Vasquez won.

Vasquez has far out-raised her in their personal campaign accounts. He's taken in nearly $4 million to Herrell's $2.44 million. At last report, Vasquez had $2.7 million cash while Herrell had $1.35 million.

LIMPING BUT ALIVE

Yvette Herrell

Herrell is limping but still has life. Polling indicates Hispanic men in the ABQ South Valley are still susceptible to a strong GOP economic argument. And it's possible that Vasquez' constant refrain on abortion could hire some voters. But the congressman's campaign appears disciplined and that is a positive reflection on him.

Herrell's campaign is not bad but it's her usual stuff and that may be the problem. She is so well-known that the only voters she's going to pick up going forward are the ones she can peel off from Vasquez with a strong negative campaign. In that regard she better come with a new and improved product.

It's not all on Herrell. We've been reminding the state that this district is a soft Democratic gerrymander with a theoretical six point lead for the Dem presidential candidate. 

Two years ago a deer in the headlights Vasquez nearly got ambushed. Now he and the national Dems have the sand out of their eyes. Headwinds for Herrell are still there even as Vasquez hides from debates in his man cave in Hatch--or somewhere.

FUNDING THE PROJECT

Apodaca

The New Mexico Project's money is now public. As ordered by the court, the political committee led by ABQ businessman Jeff Apodaca last week released their donations ($143,000) and expenditures ($121,000) after resisting a lawsuit from the State Ethics Commission. 

For blog readers the report was no surprise. As we had reported, oil and real estate interests were the big money donors to the Project for the June primary with Chevron topping the list giving $50,000.

In an interview with us in the spring, Apodaca told us his group had raised $1 million but later walked that back and said the legal tussle over disclosure had inhibited donations.

Apodaca says the group will be active going forward. 

The Project was formed to oppose progressive Democrats who Apodaca says are not representing the interests of the state's Hispanic residents.

DONORS

Chevron; $50,000; Doug Campbell, Interpreter $25,000;  NM NAIOP, political action committee (real estate) $15,000; Raymond Alderete self employed--$15,000; Richard Herig, retail--$10,000; Pitre Group, (autos) $10,000; Sam Donaldson, former ABC News correspondent--$5,000, 

The complete report is here. 

ETHRIDGE EXIT

Bowing to the inevitable, the ABQ Journal orchestrated the resignation of their executive editor Patrick Ethridge last week after he became engulfed in a shoplifting scandal that stunned La Politica but did not appear to have much impact on the public. 

Reacting to Ethridge's arrest for shoplifting and the ten day sentence he was given to be served at the Sandoval County Detention Center, one social media reader wrote:

It's like the manager of a McDonald's getting fired. 

That zing is a commentary not only on the Journal but sadly about newspapers in general which are not engaging generations raised on social media. 

The paper reported that they did not know of the August 24 incident at a Rio Rancho Walmart until over a month later when Ethridge was sentenced. Journal publisher Willam Lang said of the embarrassing episode:

This has been an unfortunate and confusing time for all of us. Patrick is a talented writer and hard-working editor, but given the circumstances, moving forward without him was our only realistic course of action. We are grateful for his significant contributions during his short tenure here.

A former reporter for the Journal said another editor from out of state--Ethridge came in from Nebraska--could be in store for the paper.  "There is no obvious successor on the Journal's staff. The old guard is all gone." He opined. 

THE JOURNAL'S PAIN

If the Journal today is more than a break even proposition it would surprise business analysts. But the company has substantial real estate interests thought to subsidize the increasing cost burden of putting out a daily paper.

There have been on and off rumors of a possible sale of the Journal but finding a buyer in the poor newspaper environment is an issue. 

The Lang family, which has owned the Journal for nearly 100 years, still seems to find purpose in keeping it under their wing, even though the paper's news and editorial agenda is increasingly isolated from the community it serves.

The Journal has shed numerous staffers in recent years. Some of them gravitated to the Santa Fe New Mexican which has replaced the Journal as the go-to newspaper for government and political news.  

Expensive investigative reporting, once a hallmark of the Journal, has shriveled. That role has been assumed in part by nonprofit outlets such as Searchlight and TV news. But the watchdog role of the press over government has has been greatly diminished by the Journal's misfortunes. 

Ethridge steered the paper further away from serious public affairs coverage and more toward what was once known as "happy news" when first deployed by media consultants in the 70's. Many of the Journal's  stories are now click-bait for their website.

Still, having a healthy independent daily newspaper was a sign of ABQ and the state's vitality. But the state has been in an economic, social and political decline (excepting the oil boom) for over a decade,  brought about by numerous factors covered here extensively during that time. It's no surprise that the Journal's business model has fallen victim to the same circumstances as other businesses. But this loss of their ethical compass is an unusual and dispiriting development for them and the state.

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