As we've reported, Haaland appears to be "all-in," to use the words of a source close to her. We're told she is expected to begin hiring staff for the June '26 primary in the March-April time frame. As for fund-raising, that should also gear up then. With her national and local standing should not be a problem.
Heinrich is not as close to pulling the trigger as Haaland. A loss to her could prove devastating to his future and treading carefully is the order of the day.
Whether Heinrich likes or dislikes his Senate job is a question that needs to be asked of him because he is expected to become the ranking member on the powerful Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. If that doesn't satisfy his ambition, then the Governor's chair will be more alluring,
His time frame for an official decision is seen by insiders as next summer. He just won a third term and announcing too soon risks insulting voters.
Polling of course will be be key to who stays in. Haaland is perceived as the progressive favorite for the nomination and therefore the early front-runner, But Heinrich is coming off a big win, has name ID high and accompanied by the ability to easily raise the money,
So Haaland is all-in and Heinrich on the fence is where we stand.
That's uncomfortable for a lot of Democrats who don't relish a potentially ugly battle between these two forces in the state party and there will be much lobbying to prevent one.
Even if the fight occurs, the Democrats may not have much to fear from Republicans taking advantage. The minority party still has no names equivalent to either Haaland or Heinrich who are positioned to take on either one of them.
BEN RAY'S TAKE
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| Sen. Lujan |
They’re both very popular. Deb Haaland is well-liked in New Mexico, well-liked in so many spheres. Martin is going to come at this with resources, but Deb has a strong base with people back home. When Deb runs, Deb wins, she finds a way to win.
Haaland could be expected to boost Native American turnout in the election, a big plus for Ben Ray who has not yet announced his re-election intentions. Still, Heinrich is no slouch attracting the electorate as seen in the November results and that could also help Lujan.
RIDICULOUS?
A veteran Republican weighs in on Rep. Melanie Stansbury's loss this week of a hard-fought battle ]for the top Democratic slot on the House Natural Resources Committee:
Joe, It's ridiculous to believe that Stansbury hasn't created long term problems for herself if the race was as bitter as you suggested. Senior members aren't going to forget a newbie attacking a much more senior member.
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