Judith Nakamura

With the price tag for the winning candidate in the '22 gubernatorial race hitting $12 million, there is pressure on those hoping to take over the top floor of the storied Roundhouse in '26 to giddy up and throw their hats into the ring.

The Dems are off to a fast start with Secretary of Interior Deb Haaland ready to make a formal entry this spring and Sen. Martin Heinrich expected to also announce a decision in the months ahead, 

And the Republicans are looking more alive this new year than last. We count at least five possible and credible GOP contenders for the minority party's Guv nomination.  

They are: 

Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, state Senator Crystal Brantley, retired Supreme Court Justice Judith Nakamura, state Rep. Rebecca Dow and '24 GOP US Senate nominee Nella Domenici.

None of those potential candidates or any others has made a formal entry into the race. 

Hull and Nakamura are newcomers to the list of possibles. Both have proven appeal to Democrats from their previous campaigns.  

JUDGE JUDY 

Nakamura, 64, won election to the Supreme Court in 2016 by beating out challenger Michael Vigil by 391,000 votes to 361,000 (52% to 48%). Nakamura was the first Republican woman elected to the Court in the state history and the first Republican since 1980.

She also has a good history in Bernalillo County, the state's largest and a deciding factor in state elections. She was elected as a Metropolitan Court Judge and District Court Judge. 

In that statewide Supreme Court contest against Vigil, she bested him 55 to 45 percent in big BernCo, a crowning achievement and one her backers say could propel her forward in the '26 Guv contest. 

THE MAYOR

Mayor Hull has an impressive track record in the City of Vision, a Republican-leaning suburb of ABQ with a population of of some 113,000.

Hull was elected as mayor in April 2014 via a runoff election to a four-year term. He was re-elected in March 2018 to a four-year term.  In March 2022, Hull was re-elected to his third, four-year term. Rio Rancho Governing Body members are elected in non-partisan elections.

The population boom has cooled a bit in Rio Rancho while the business climate has improved drastically under Hull. The issue of city residents spending most of their money in ABQ is largely in the rear-view mirror with businesses of all stripes now making their home in the city known for its low crime rate and good public schools. 

With Hull or Nakamura the Republicans could at least knock on the door of BernCo and get someone to answer. 

Gov. Lujan Grisham punished Republican Mark Ronchetti here in '22, posting a 58 to 41 percent victory. That was 144,000 for MLG and 99,000 for Ronchetti, a margin of 45,000, a deficit nearly impossible for a GOP candidate to make up in a race that drew 713,000 voters. MLG won the state by 6.38 percent. 

THE RIGHT MIX?

Some analysts point out that none of the five possible GOP hopefuls is Hispanic even though the last three Governors have been. They also mull about Hull being the only man in the group. After what will be 16 years of female governors next year, the electorate might want to mix it up. 

Still, Hull and Nakamura have the gravitas to carry the GOP banner and perhaps a smidgen more hope of pulling off an upset since since the November election. Trump's loss to Kamala Harris was an even six points, a bit better than the '22 GOP Guv candidate and the best GOP presidential showing since 2004. 

And results indicate some of those Trump votes came from dissatisfied Hispanic Democratic men in the northern counties and elsewhere. 

THE OTHERS

Brantley and Dow are also no lightweights but Dow could not win the '22 GOP Guv nomination when she ran and Brantley has never run statewide. Domenici has run statewide but lost by ten points--55 to 45--to Heinrich. That size of a loss does not give her any foot up for the nomination. However, she does have a personal fortune to deploy, if she chooses, so she will be closely watched by potential rivals.

Finally, while Hull and Nakamura and Domenci have established some moderate GOP credentials, they would be challenged in this blue state on abortion, crime and climate and last but not least the Trump presidency. 

That is no easy needle to thread. Whoever ends up winning the GOP gubernatorial nomination will need the steadiest of hands.

MAYOR JANWAY 

From our perch Dale Janway was one of the best small city mayors in New Mexico. He ably and obsessively supervised the Cave City for three terms ending in January of 2024.

Janway, 80, died of a heart condition December 28.

Carlsbad may be a small city but the issues don't get any bigger than during Janway's time at the helm. The Permian Basin oil boom jammed the town and surrounding environs with thousands of oil workers, creating an epic housing shortage and decimating roadways while boosting the city's coffers with treasure generated from the oil fields.

We experienced that first-hand when touring the area with Janway for an in-depth blog report in 2019 that was one of our most well-received, thanks to Janway's insistence on showing us every angle of the boom and then some. 

Janway was a Carlsbad native who came from the potash industry and was comfortable hanging with CEO's of the world's major oil companies as well as working men and women who are the backbone of the city.

“He was as Carlsbad as it gets,” declared Kyle Marksteiner, the city's PR chief under Janway often known as "Mr. Carlsbad."

"It's a wild ride," Janway told me in the middle of the oil boom. 

He rode it like a pro and today Carlsbad thrives in large part because of him.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.