Securing the Democratic nomination for governor won't come at a bargain basement price. Inflation isn't exempting the cost of campaigning and the $4 million that MLG and Republican Mark Ronchetti each spent in 2022 to win their nominations is expected to be equaled and likely surpassed.

Already Deb Haaland says she has raised nearly as much as Lujan Grisham spent in her three way primary, reporting a total of $3.7 million raised. Haaland spent $1.7 million as of April 7.

What does that mean for BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman, Haaland's chief rival? We put that question to a veteran Dem consultant not affiliated with any Guv campaign: 

Bregman will definitely have to raise and spend $3 to 5 million if he wants to compete against Haaland. She may or may not spend more but for Bregman $3 million is the low, low end to stay in the fight. 

What about the immense wealth that Bregman's son has accumulated with his stellar baseball career? Could that come into play? The consultant replied:

His son would not give him vast sums as an individual. The maximum amount an individual can contribute is $12,000 per election cycle (primary or general election), meaning a total of $24,000 if contributing to both. But Bregman's son (Alex) could donate as much as he wanted to a political action committee that would support his father's campaign. That is an ace in the hole that Bregman may have that could make a real difference if in the months ahead he gets the race in play.

Despite the continued decline in audience for over the air TV stations like KOB, KOAT and KRQE, political ads at those stations are more than keeping up with inflation. Back to the consultant:

It wasn't long ago that an effective ad buy--at least 1,000 ratings points per week was going for $100,000. That price is more than double now, so it will cost the candidates at least $1.6 million to stay on TV in ABQ for the two months head of next June's primary. And that does not include El Paso to reach Las Cruces voters. 

Broadcast TV and cable is still important in campaign advertising because voters aged 50 and over still depend on them as their main source of information and they are the age group most likely to vote. 

Bregman has just begun his fund-raising and reported $76,000 in cash in April. 

The consultant says we won't need early polling to determine the leader in the race, saying if Bregman has not raised around $2 million by late fall, it could be a sign of trouble. Ditto for Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima who faces the steepest fundraising hill to climb. 

WHAT THEY ARE

Here's some insider info on the TV game that is so critical to the candidates as explained by campaign operatives:

 In TV advertising, "1,000 points" refers to Gross Ratings points that measures the reach and frequency of an ad campaign. One GRP represents 1% of the target audience reached by an advertisement. If a TV ad reaches 1% of a target audience of 100,000 people, that’s 1 GRP. If the ad airs multiple times, the GRPs accumulate. This means the ad campaign has achieved a cumulative reach equivalent to 1,000% of the target audience. For instance, it could mean reaching 100% of the audience 10 times (frequency) or 50% of the audience 20 times, depending on the campaign structure.

Thanks, but that's like going to summer school. Time to jump in the pool and sign along with this.

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