New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

He's only 31, but Ben Ray Lujan, son of NM House Speaker Ben Lujan, could have his political future riding on the outcome of Tuesday's election. With his most formidable foe in the race for the Democratic nomination for the northern Public Regulation Commission seat, Bob Perls, going on TV this week and also mailing a hit piece against the young Lujan, Ben Ray has responded and joined Perls on the tube as they race to a dramatic conclusion. Lujan had no time to respond to the Perls hit piece via the mail thus the answer on TV.

Can Speaker Lujan pass on a legacy, or will voters, as they have often in New Mexico's past, reject the planting of a family political tree? And what would it mean to Big Bill, who endorsed Ben Ray over three fellow Dems, if the young politico suffers defeat? No wonder so many eyes will be looking North on Primary Election Night 04'.

MY EXPERTS AND THEIR FINAL PREDICTIONS

My panel of 04' Primary experts gathered for a live KANW-FM program late yesterday and I pressed them for predictions on the hottest races in New Mexico.

State office director for U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman and Dem political junkie Terry Brunner said the Perls-Lujan battle is "going to very tight. I'm surprised the governor has not come out stronger in the last few weeks for Ben Ray after Bob went on TV."

ABQ GOP State Sen. Kent Cravens, commenting on the GOP State House fight between Rep. Larry Larranaga and Rob Burpo: "It's too close to call. I give Larry the edge only because he is the incumbent."

Lobbyist Scott Scanland on the GOP House nomination fight between Rep. Bob White and Justine Fox-Young: "It's definitely too close too call. If the vote skews older, White could have the edge. It all depends on turnout."

The ABQ Tribune's Shea Andersen, looking ahead to the Bush-Kerry NM face off: "Delivering this state for Bush is going to be a major challenge for the Republicans."

CONGRESS AND MORE

All my experts agreed that a loss by Richard Romero against Miles Nelson for the Dem Congressional nomination and the right to take on U.S. Rep Heather Wilson would be a stunning upset. But they all agreed that the margin Romero wins by, if he does win, will be vital.

The panel also predicted a win for Gary King against Jeff Steinborn for the Dem Congressional nomination down south. Lobbyist Scanland: "Gary needs to win by a big margin to pose a serious threat in November. He needs a head of steam coming out of the primary."

Cravens, remarking on the civil war in the NM GOP and Big Bill's interference in Democratic primary races: "When it's the Democrats, they call it breaking ranks. In the GOP it's called a bloodbath."

On the GOP Public Regulation Commission race all agreed that Hess Yntema was the odds on favorite. "A low turnout race favors the candidate with name ID." said Andersen.

On the GOP County Commission battle between incumbent Tim Cummins and challenger Bill Davis, Cravens called Davis "a very intelligent man and a great former state senator. The edge goes to Cummins because he is the incumbent."


On the GOP House race featuring Kathy McCoy and Mickey Barnett backed Mario Burgos, the panel calls it for McCoy. Ron Godbey is vacating the seat and backing McCoy. Said Andersen: "Godbey's endorsement goes a long way out there."

Brunner said he is looking to see if Hector Balderas can "catch fire" in the last few days in his fight for a Dem State House nomination up North against controversial incumbent Bengie Regensburg.

Scanland gives Ben Ray Lujan the edge over Perls, but thinks it could go down to the wire.

MORE TUNEOUT, THAN TURNOUT

Turnout for this election will most likely reach historically low levels, with pollsters Brian Sanderoff and Harry Pavlides saying a break below 20% is likely. Ironically, the polling experts think we could rebound to near record turnout levels when voters decide the presidential battle in the Fall. With such startling low turnout numbers, prepare yourself for some upsets. As Kent Cravens said; we are in "an anything can happen" atmosphere when so few voters participate.

ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE IS ON KANW 89.1 FM

I started covering New Mexico elections at UNM in 1974 (I started very young!). As I hit the 30 year mark I remain as excited as ever about our political process, if not the campaign techniques This is the 16th consecutive year that I will anchor coverage on KANW-FM, and lobbyist Scott Scanland, my chief political analyst, has been with me for most of those. We will dust off the microphones again Tuesday night at 6:30 for what the Albuquerque Tribune has called New Mexico's "best election coverage." So be sure to join Scott, Kent Cravens, Dem Rep. Tom Swisstack and many others as we provide you with not just the numbers, but the story behind them and what they mean for our political future.

A big "Thank You" to Pfizer, New Mexico's Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Real Estate and Alphagraphics on Osuna NE in ABQ for their support of this web site and public radio. Please keep these civic-minded businesses in mind when you make your buying decisions.

We will monitor events thru the long holiday weekend and, if need be, update you on late breaking events. Thanks to all of those serving America this Memorial Day weekend for
safeguarding our rights and making it possible for us to have so much fun covering the world of politics.

Make our site, www.joemonahan.com, one of your favorites and send a link to interested friends.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

BURPO
A late flurry of campaigning in key legislative and other races is swamping voters' mailboxes and keeping their phone lines humming. The Barnett-Dendahl wing of the split NM GOP seems to have narrowed its focus in the final critical days, looking now for hard-fought upsets against Rep. Bob White in the ABQ NE Heights and Rob Burpo in the far Heights who is challenging Dendahlite Larry Larranaga.

Greg Payne appears safe to win the GOP nomination against Bill Rehm for the seat being vacated by Mickey Barnett right-hand-man Joe Thompson. Kathy McCoy, running against Dendahlite Mario Burgos and Charles Mellon in ABQ's East Mountains also appears set for victory, thus the Barnett troops are being repositioned to help White rival Justine Fox-Young and to foil Burpo.

"That's where the big money is going. Vicious attacks are underway by all sides. It could
drive voter turnout even lower than we expect, if voters turn off to the negative messages,"
said one veteran Republican.

The Republicans are dominating this primary election cycle, offering several intra-party wars. Because Governor Bill has endorsed incumbents, his interference in the Dem primary is seen as less controversial.

"Bill has played it smart and safe. Most of his candidates are easy winners. But Barnett has taken a major gamble by taking on incumbents. If he loses, the long knives will come out and come out fast," predicted another GOP war watcher.

THE LONG KNIVES

Word is that those knives are already being sharpened as some Republicans are starting a letter-writing campaign against Barnett and in support of George Buffet, who is challenging Mickey for his Republican National Committeeman post at the June GOP convention.

"Old line R's let Barnett and Dendahl take out Ramsay Gorham from the state chairmanship, but the viciousness of their attacks on sitting Republican legislators has finally put them over the top. If (GOP Chair) Weh does not take a stand, others will and they are warming up now."

"How can you have two state parties? Asked a longtime Republican. "The answer is, you can't.
Now we have Bush headed for defeat here and believe me, if he goes down, Mickey, Dendahl and Rod Adair are going to be shown the door," remarked a Republican who has ties to both factions.

But other Republicans are less forceful saying they have heard that before, yet the breakaway wing of the party persists because so many Republicans have walked away from the mess and no serious leadership has emerged to heal the strife. But, if Burpo, White and McCoy win Tuesday night, Barnett and company may finally get the real war it may take to clear the decks once and for all. The final outcome will determine the legitimate leadership of the New Mexico Republican Party. But for now, New Mexico is in the Kerry column, the Dem Guv is riding high and more GOP blood is about to be spilled Tuesday night.

ELECTION 04': WE'VE GOT YOU COVERED

So, who will be the big winners next Tuesday night? Is it predictable? Well, my panel of experts on KANW 89.1 FM will do their best this afternoon at 5 p.m. when we do our live Election Night pre-game show. ABQ GOP State Senator Kent Cravens, Terry Brunner, state office director for Senator Bingaman, top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and ABQ Tribune chief political writer Shea Andersen are the experts. I will be on hand to hold their feet to the fire and report how they did when we bring you Primary election 04' live Tuesday night starting at 6:30 p.m. also on KANW which has a nice strong signal and is heard throughout northcentral NM. We'll also have exclusive early results from key precincts so be sure you are on hand for both these special programs.

And, join me again Friday night at 8:30 p.m. on KNME-TV (Channel 5) when I analyze Primary 04' with one of NM's most seasoned political correspondents, Kate Nelson, anchor of the "In Focus" program and managing editor of the ABQ Tribune.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

State Rep. Roberts
The Republican Civil War continues. Longtime SE NM GOP State Rep. Earlene Roberts has incurred the wrath of Roswell State Sen. "Lightning Rod" Adair and the Dendahlite faction of the GOP and, sources report, as a result the race could tighten. Roberts has had a free ride for years, but this time around the Dendahlites are going for the kill of one of their major foes in the State House. Here is my exclusive report from a deep insider close to the action.

"The race is between Earlene Roberts and Keith Gardner. Adair sent out a letter attacking Roberts for voting for the "ignition interlock" systems that would cost New Mexican's tons of money.

Roberts is responding in a mailer saying Adair is making something out of nothing since the law never passed. Robert's has been focusing on the money she has brought to the district and her opposition to gay marriage. Senate Minority Leader Stuart Ingle has endorsed Roberts, which gives her Roosevelt County. Since the district has changed and moved Earlene over into Chaves County more, the race could be closer than some had envisioned.

Gardner did not raise much money, and he is hitting this last week hard with support from Adair. Roberts should still win, but the last ditch effort from Gardner could make it close."

While the focus has been on the three candidates the Barnett-Denahl faction is fielding in the Albuquerque area, taking the Roberts seat would be a major feather in the cap of the break away faction. However, Roberts beat the same opponent two years ago.

Thanks to our Southeast insider. We will defintely watch this one when we call the election on KANW 89.1 FM in ABQ starting at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday night.

MICKEY'S WRIST-SLAP

Meanwhile, back here in the big city, insiders say new GOP Chair Allen Weh called together his new GOP executive committee Saturday and sternly warned that he would not tolerate Republicans fielding primary opponents against each other. He is said to have looked directly at Republican National Committeeman and lawyer-lobbyist Barnett when he made the statement. But talk and action are two different things. For all intents and purposes a political party is being run out of Barnett's law offices as well as Adair's. Weh and no other Republican officials are apparently able or willing to stop it.

NM'S GENDER GAP

That Zogby interactive poll of New Mexico (see below) also has startling evidence of the gender gap here between Kerry and Bush. Among men the Prez garners 55% of the vote, but only 32% of the females. Kerry gets a whopping 62% of the women, but falls to 35% of the men.

Here's pollster Zogby's analysis of the Prez race here with Kerry leading by about five points:

"While President Bush predictably lags here in the state’s big cities, the good news for his re-election campaign is that there aren’t many of them. Instead, this southwestern state shoehorned between the vacation mecca of Arizona and the president’s home state of Texas is dotted with small towns and rural life, which treat him better, the poll shows. While Democrat John Kerry leads in the big cities, 54% to 33%, Mr. Bush leads in small cities, 50% to 45%, and by an even greater margin, 56% to 40%, in rural New Mexico."

Again, thanks to my inside sources for forwarding this exclusive polling info. We'll keep you posted on the very latest polls

MILES TO GO BEFORE THEY MEET

Apparently the race between Miles Nelson and Richard Romero for the Democratic nomination for the ABQ Congressional seat has gone personal. KKOB-AM radio talk host Richard Eeds reports the two men were so upset with each other on his Saturday program that they continued their fighting during the commercial breaks. Democratic insiders are pulling back their predictions that Richard will landslide Nelson. If that's the case, Romero may need the support of Nelson, an emergency room doctor, if he is to beat Rep. Heather Wilson. Sounds like they will need some therapy before that happens.

Join me Thursday at 5 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM for our Election Night pre-game show when my top experts review the key races and make predictions. Our Election Night coverage on KANW starts at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday night.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

New Mexico is going Kerry, if a new interactive poll from the Zogby group has it right. The poll, conducted May 18 thru the 23, shows the Prez losing his grip fast on our swing state. Kerry pulls 48.4% to Bush's 43.3. Independent Ralph Nader grabs 2.9% and just a slim 5.4% are undecided. The margin of error in the poll is pegged at 4.6%. But keep in mind that this was an "interactive" poll, meaning Zogby sent e mails to likely voters in the 16 battleground states. He has safeguards and I know one person who participated in the NM poll, but still this is not a traditional phone poll.

Yet, the numbers ring true and reflect Bush's national plunge. In an AIG survey at the beginning of May, Bush held a one point lead over Kerry. Without question, the Democrats in New Mexico are energized. They may not love Kerry but they want Bush gone. New Mexico's Republican party, currently in a state of civil war, has all the more incentive to try to find a way out of the mess, as the glory days of the Bush presidency fade into history and is now being reflected in survey after survey.

YNTEMA: UNPRONOUNCEABLE, BUT ELECTABLE?

He's been around the political scene for nearly 20 years, but his name remains a tongue twister. Yet, Hess Yntema, according to a wide range of GOP observers, is poised to win the GOP nomination for the ABQ Public Regulation commission (PRC) seat when we count the votes live on June 1 starting at 6:30 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM radio.

The two term SE ABQ city councilor kept his name in the news the past four years and is being challenged by two lesser know contenders; utility expert Ward Camp and ABQ City Councilor Tina Cummins, sister of Bernalillo County Commissioner Tim Cummins who is also running Tuesday.

Yntema has run a low-key campaign and only hit the mail this week. Meanwhile, Camp has surprised some by mounting a respectable media effort that includes mail, billboards and, starting today, radio ads. Tina has been more quiet with no real visible media. Yntema alienated some conservative Republicans with his liberal environmental stands while on the council and that could nick him Tuesday. But as the only candidate with two successful elections under his belt, newspaper endorsements and name ID that stretches back to the 80's, this one is Yntema's to lose.

CAMPAIGN ON THE DIAL

The three GOP hopefuls for the State House seat being vacated by Rep. Ron Godbey take to the airwaves at KKNS 1310 AM radio in ABQ this afternoon at 5 p.m. for a final square-off. Mario Burgos and Kathy McCoy are the top contenders for the far NE Heights and East Mountain seat, with psychiatrist Charles Mellon also on the ballot. Godbey fended off challenges from the Barnett-Dendahl right wing of the GOP. Kathy picks up his banner while Mario is in the Barnett camp.(Late word from McCoy--She will not make the show because she is busy walking her district)

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Heather
Big Bill isn't the only sitting incumbent who is interfering in the June 1 primary contests. GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson has decided to make the GOP State House nomination fight in ABQ’S NE Heights between State Rep. Larry Larranaga and Rob Burpo her fight. Wilson fired off a letter of support for Larry telling his constituents he is "a man of character and decency.” Larry is in a tough match with Burpo who used to represent the area before seeking the GOP Guv nod in 2002. For his part Larranaga, a longtime GOP moderate, has enlisted the support of the Barnett-Dendahl right wing of the split GOP to try to bring this one home. But it's a dog fight with anti-Dendahlite Burpo, who has been working it hard. The Dendahlites may feel they are behind as they launched attack literature accusing Burpo of working to get a road paved in front of his house while serving in the people's House.

If Burpo wins, Heather, who has also been leaning towards the Dendahlites, could have a savvy opponent on her hands. Of course, after the election everyone will make the peace and forget the nasty past. Right?

NEWSPAPERS AIM GUNS AT BARNETT-DENDAHL FACTION

Weh
Politicos around New Mexico are taking note of how the ABQ Journal and Tribune editorial endorsements of State House candidates leaves the Barnett-Dendahl wing 0 for 3. The Barnett backed contenders, Justine Fox-Young, Mario Burgos and Larry Larranga, failed to earn a single endorsement from the ink-stained wretches. Observers safely comment that that is no accident. But some are asking where is the new chair of the Republican Party, Allen Weh, in all of this? Yesterday's newspaper had a picture of Barnett and a list of who he was backing in the GOP primary races, but there was no comment from or mention of Weh. Does he support the Barnett candidates? Does he think the NM Republican National Committeeman, Barnett, should not field candidates? Does he feel the congressional delegation should be taking sides in primary fights? Tough questions.

Seems we have two Republican parties here, and the new 'official' GOP leadership is staying eerily quiet about the fratricide being committed. But it won’t be quiet when the winners and losers will have their own vendettas, based on what happens next Tuesday. Don't say we didn't tell you.

LAURA AND THE SHY WALLETS

"Disappointing" is how several top Republicans describe the fundraising event held with First Lady Laura Bush last week at the ABQ Old Town Sheraton. "Even with tickets deeply discounted, they were a hard sell," said one GOP insider. The $1000 tickets had to be discounted to $250.00 to get people in the door, and the event, according to another GOP source “raised a whole let less than the $150,000 that was promoted."

Some in the GOP are saying the low-dough show for lovely Laura shows weakness in the Bush-Cheney campaign here. Others attribute it to Repubs being tapped out of cash after being hit on for the past year. And still others say the rancor and divisions in the party may be hurting money raising. Laura may not have been able to open the GOP wallets much, but her visit was a PR success. TV coverage focused on her reading to kids at a local school. TV news, at least what I saw of it, showed none of the money raising going on

PAID POLITICAL

Friends:

Every election is important. But this years election is especially critical to the future of New Mexico. I ask for your support for re-election. I will continue to bring strong leadership, accountability, integrity and hard work to the State Legislature as your District 30 Representative.

Over the last ten years I’ve lived here, my wife and myself have built a successful printing business through hard work and the willingness to listen to every customer. Now, with your help, I'll continue to bring that same work ethic to my constituents and to our legislature. I look forward to talking with you in the days ahead as we bring our, "Support New Mexico Business" campaign to the people and the business of Albuquerque.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Romero
"Better late than never." That's how one top Democratic strategist responded to the news that
State Senator and ABQ Congressional Dem candidate Richard Romero has made a late TV buy as his race with Miles Nelson enters its final days. The winner will take on Republican Heather Wilson for the ABQ seat in November. TV insiders tell me Romero has opened his wallet to the tune of $60,000 and the buy starts today.

"I think Richard should have been hammering Heather in April and May, but this late buy at least puts the race on the map and in the minds of voters who, for the most part, still don't have a clue who is running," said our strategist.

Sources also report that Nelson, who started with a small TV buy, has come up with more tube dough but not as much as Richard. Romero's 30 second TV ad directs its fire at Wilson, not Nelson. "I’m fed up. George Bush and Heather Wilson have made a mess of things," charges Romero as he reads into the camera.

"This could close the deal for Romero and quiet the discontent in some Democratic circles that Richard has not been aggressive enough and let Nelson have the field to himself," opined our insider.

Wilson took Romero out by 10 points two years ago. He had told friends he did not plan a months long TV campaign because he wanted to save his money for the General Election contest.
A campaign spokeswoman told me this late TV buy was "planned all along" and was not in response to the Romero worrywarts or to internal polls that might show him in trouble.

SILENT NIGHTS DOWN SOUTH

King
Meanwhile, down south where Gary King and Jeff Steinborn are vying for the Dem nomination and the right to take on incumbent GOP Congressman Steve Pearce, sources tell me neither campaign will take to the tube in the closing days of Primary 04'. "We are confident our mailing and field work will take us over the top," said a King campaign aide.

Steinborn apparently has also decided to stay off the tube and fight it out on the ground with phone calls and lit drops. Neither contender has raised heavy cash and the race has drawn very little attention in the sprawling district.

ODDS AND ENDS

Veteran Republican and former foreign correspondent Kurt Lohbeck offers this comment on the troubles of the Prez: "Iraq is not like Vietnam---it's worse."

KKOB radio host Larry Ahrens says of the fight for the GOP House nomination fight between Mario Burgos and Kathy McCoy: "They are workin' it! Mario has been to my door four times, Kathy two times." Ahrens lives in Sandia Park. McCoy won the endorsement of the ABQ Journal this week.

It may be a TV first. A candidate wearing a karate outfit and chopping away at "special interests." That's what we get in Dem Public Regulation Commission candidate Bob Perls' TV ad. Perls is billed as a black belt as he chops his way into your living room. See, you haven't seen it all.

Dem insiders tell me Senator Kerry will be back in the state in June, probably late in the month.

Thanks for tuning in this week and be sure to join us next week for the final stretch of Primary 04." We'll have lots of fun stuff for you then. Have a great weekend.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

We're back today with more analysis of the key races around New Mexico in the rapidly nearing June 1 primary. Absentee ballots have been coming in for three weeks and early in-person voting started over the weekend. My experts say it's possible up to half the vote or more could be cast before the actual Election Day, so the candidates that got an early start may have an edge. Now, on to more key race analysis from the top political junkies in this state and some feedback on our first round of key race analysis.

FROM MORA COUNTY:
Bengie
"Joe, I think Governor Bill will still have to deal with State Rep. Bengie Regensberg in the House. Even though he had that fight with the state police and he advocates cockfighting and other controversial laws, it appears he will be re-elected. Hector Balderas, a young lawyer is running well, but a third candidate in the race, Severiano Cisneros, is going to pick up some of the anti-Bengie vote. Also, despite his troubles, Regensberg is well-liked and well known here. The race is his to lose."

Regensberg shook up the state political scene when he could not be found to vote on a close bill favored by House Speaker Lujan and Big Bill and got into a wrestling match with state cops at his hotel room. But he is probably wearing it like a badge of honor and some observers there say its actually helping him in his re-election bid!

FROM ABQ'S NE HEIGHTS AND WEST SIDE

Here's the thoughts of several insiders strung together on another key race.
Cummins
"The Tim Cummins-Bill Davis contest for the Republican nomination for Bernalillo County Commission is definitely a race to watch. Davis, a former State Senator, is flaunting his conservative credentials and pointing out that Cummins joins the two Democrats on the commission to make a majority. Davis is also slamming Cummins over alleged conflicts of interest and cites Cummins' real estate business. Cummins is stepping up his campaign, but Davis got a head start. Also, Cummins had a close race four years ago.

Much of the district is new and now extends over to the Westside. That area could decide this one. Davis is making hay over the Paseo del Norte extension, saying Cummins has not done enough for the roads there. But Davis has run for a lot of Republican offices and lost and is not all that popular in the party. Cummins has the support of (lawyer-lobbyist) Mickey Barnett and the Dendahl wing of the party and that muddies the water more. The hole card for Davis is the bad press county government has been getting over the jail and other issues. I would rate this one a toss-up, with Cummins coming on during the final stretch."

FROM ABQ'S FAR HEIGHTS:

"Greg Payne is the heavy favorite to take the Republican nomination here for the House seat. Joe Thompson is not running after his DWI arrest, and Payne is well-known in the area. Bill Rehm is retired from law enforcement, but has not mounted a stiff challenge. The Dendahl and Barnett faction would like to take Payne out, but it is very unlikely. Payne is walking and mailing the district.
Payne
His opponents are now accusing Payne of meddling in the Davis-Cummins race (see above)as well as other Republican races. (Payne beat Cummins for a city council seat in 99.') Payne's most controversial days seem to be behind him, if not in the Republican Party, at least in public. There is also talk up here that Payne could still have ambitions for the Mayor's office, but right now he is working this legislative district while Rehm's visibility is low. I look for Payne to take this one handily."

READERS REACT

Again, thanks to our insiders for their insights. Our report yesterday drew a wide range of responses. Supporters of Mario Burgos, seeking the GOP nomination for the House seat being vacated by Ron Godbey in the East Mountains, thought our insider was too sure that McCoy would win. "Mario has been working this very hard, and winning a lot of acceptance,' wrote one. The race is not over." Another emailer thought the win call for State Sen. Roman Maes
was out of line, but that was a lone wolf crying as most feedback said the Maes pick was not a key race and that he will be the hands-down winner.

I will have more key race analysis on the days ahead so stay tuned.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

It's crunch time for the candidates of NM Primary 04'. The electorate is starting to break toward their favorites and I have reports from the political insiders across New Mexico on what's happening.

FROM SANTA FE:

"Joe, it appears lawyer Peter With is going to take the Max Coll House seat. I sense the vote starting to break his way because the district is rich and he so is he. (Carol Robertson) Lopez is well-known as a city councilor, but much of her council district is not in the Coll district. Also, Wirth has thrown the most money at this thing. Look for him to pull it out."

FROM RIO ARRIBA COUNTY:

Here's an insider report on the fight for the Dem nomination for the NM Public Regulation commission seat featuring the son of House Speaker Ben Lujan: "Art Rodarte is putting the pinch on Ben Lujan Jr. Bob Perls is going to get a huge share of the Anglo vote in Sandoval County and elsewhere and Ben may end up splitting too much of the Hispanic vote with Rodarte to bring this thing home. Perls' Anglo opponent is much weaker than Lujan's Hispanic opponent. Look for this thing to go down to the wire."

BACK IN SANTA FE:

Forget about Roman Maes losing the seat. It looked like it was possible a couple of months ago, but it's breaking hard for Roman. He will win easily"


FROM ABQ'S NE HEIGHTS:

"It's hand-to-hand combat between Republicans Larry Larranaga and Rob Burpo. A poll floating around has Larry up buy five points. But Burpo used to represent the district and may peel Anglos away from Larry. But Larry has solid name ID and hit the mailboxes this week with a big campaign piece. This one is still too close to call, with Larry getting a slight edge only because he is the incumbent."


FROM ABQ'S FAR HEIGHTS AND EAST MOUNTAINS:

"Joe, I see Republican Kathy McCoy taking the House seat being vacated by Ron Godbey. She has the solid backing of Godbey. Mario Burgos has shown some good stuff on the trail, but he may not have the roots in the district to see it over the top. McCoy has worked with neighborhood organizations for years and she is drawing on that support. I score this nomination fight for her as well as the November election because the seat is heavy Republican."

FROM ABQ'S SOUTH VALLEY:

"Joe, This is an absolute shoot-out in the Valley. We have eight candidates seeking the Democratic nomination for the county commission seat that has been held by Steve Gallegos for eight years. No one, and I mean no one, can predict who is going to win this thing. Cris Sanchez and Teresa Cordova are the frontrunners with Art DeLaCruz also in the game. Gallegos is backing Cordova but this thing is really wild and unpredictable."

Thanks to all my contributors. We will have another recap of these races and more before Election Day.

PARIS ON THE RIO GRANDE

I had the chance recently, courtesy of the U.S. State Department's International Visitors Program, to sit down for an extended chat with Sophie Larmoyer, a Paris-based journalist who covers foreign affairs for the radio network Europe One. She was here to study our wonderful world of La Politica. It seemed silly to talk about French fries minus the "French," and the short-lived boycott of French food and wine following France's refusal to support the Iraq war. It seemed especially so when we reminded each other that the 60th anniversary of D-day and the invasion of France via Normandy during WWII will be commemorated this summer, an invasion that many New Mexicans engaged in and which reinforced the centuries old bonds between our two countries.

So pass the French fries and have a sip of Bordeaux, and let's not lose sight of who our friends really are.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

The fire still burns for old time politico and former NM Lieutenant Governor Roberto Mondragon. Now he has lit the match over in Guadalupe County where he is seeking a seat on the county commission. His bid has gone mostly unnoticed around the state, but we got wind of it the other day from one of ABQ's Valley alligators.

Roberto served two four years term as Lt. Governor, both times under Gov. Bruce King. He also ran unsuccessfully for Congress back in 74.' But his most famous foray into politics was his 1994 run for Governor under the Green Party banner. He garnered 10 per cent of the vote in that race which Gary Johnson won. It was the high-water mark for the Greens who have never replicated that success. It also put Roberto in the doghouse with some Dems who place the blame for Johnson's victory over Bruce King at his doorstep.

Mondragon, now in his mid 60's, is back to his roots as he runs as a Democrat in the four way
race for the nomination for the commission seat being vacated by Jim Barela. One of the other candidates is Gerald Rivera, who went to Santa Rosa High with Mondragon. But Rivera says he is not worried about his old classmate getting the best of him. "The bigger they are the harder they fall, he chuckled over his cell phone from the wide-open spaces east of the big city.

In recent years Roberto has done radio work and has battled for the rights of land-grant heirs in northern NM. His brother, Fred, was recently named the economic development director for the city of ABQ. Once lit, the flame of La Politica is hard to extinguish, as evidenced by the over 30 years of practice of the political arts by these two brothers from deep in the heart of New Mexico.

A POLITICAL MOM

La Familia is still the rallying cry in the South Valley and that's clear by the piece of campaign lit featuring House Majority Whip James Taylor and his mother, Mella. Yep, Mom, apple pie and maybe a little green chile. Works everytime. The card featuring Ma Mella and her politico son hit just before Mother's Day. According to Taylor's campaign, it was mailed to all women over 30 in his district. Of course, Taylor faces a female opponent for the Dem nomination, Cecelia Romero-T'kach. He is the clear favorite, but Romero-T'kach is picking up support from some Valley politicos, like former Taylor mentor and ex-county commissioner Al Valdez, who is not happy with Taylor. He knows it and has hit the trail to combat it.

WELCOME ABOARD TO THE FOLKS AT PFIZER



Thanks to Pfizer for joining us in covering New Mexico Campaign 04,' and making possible in part our Election Night program on KANW 89.1 FM starting at 6:30 p.m June 1. Be sure to join me and top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland as we bring you the most comprehensive coverage in the Land of Enchantment

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Bern. County Commission
It may be probable but it is not a given that the widow of late ABQ Westside State Rep. Ray Ruiz will be named by Bernalillo County Central Committee members to take Ray's place in the Roundhouse. That from sources deep on the inside who say there are others who have their
eye on the seat and may make a play.

Ruiz passed away earlier this month and within days his widow, Harriet Ruiz, announced she would ask the Bernalillo County Commission to appoint her to fill the rest of Ray's term, which runs until the end of the year. But the central committee will decide who will be placed on the ballot to replace Ray Ruiz in November to run for a full two year House term.

"There is no opposition to Harriet getting the appointment for the rest of the year from the commission, but some other candidates besides Harriet may surface to win the right to run in November," said our insider.

One of those candidates could be Dan Serrano, a Westsider who has sought several elective offices, including an ABQ City Council seat. Friends of Serrano are floating his name, but it is a delicate matter and Serrano is not actively campaigning at this time.

Another Westside politico said its possible "a labor candidate could also emerge" before the final decision is made. Ruiz was a longtime labor activist. Harriet has told friends she wants to fill out his term and run for the two year term in order to push legislation that would protect workers' health, an issue that Ray advocated in his final days.

The Ruiz vacancy is also a test for new State Democratic Party Chair John Wertheim who may confront the various factions that are active in the Ruiz district. Westside Dems say members of the county central committee from the precincts that make up the Ruiz district will decide who to put on the November ballot. That has opened the way for this round of political intrigue that will be settled at a meeting in late June. Stay tuned.

VOTING EARLY, BUT NOT OFTEN

Predictions of a very light turnout for the June 1 primary appear on their way to proving correct as scattered reports coming in to me from throughout Bernalillo County show a slow start to the two weeks of early voting that started Saturday. For example, at Paseo Village, in the far ABQ NE Heights, only 64 voters showed up Saturday. As few as 15 were reported at another locale. Adding to turnout woes this go round is having he election the day after Memorial Day, when many voters will still be traveling.


ONLY IN NEW MEXICO; CHUNKY CLICK & COMPANY

Politics got real personal down Carlsbad way as a fight broke out last week following a candidates forum featuring former Eddy County Sheriff Chunky Click who is trying to oust the current sheriff. Chunky Click, you won't forget the name and Carlsbad will never forget the controversy he brought. Now it continues as reported by the Carlsbad Current-Argus

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the autho

With less than a month to go, political pros in the highest reaches of the state GOP are saying the challenge by ex-state Rep George Buffett to Republican National Committeeman Mickey Barnett is looking more and more like a very long shot. A high-ranking Buffet supporter told me George still has his vote, but he is pessimistic that Barnett can be ousted.

"George is going to have to work it a lot harder. He has sent out a letter, but he hasn't shown us much else. Mickey's forces are well-organized and they know how to count votes. To beat an incumbent in any race takes a special effort, and right now we are seeing that effort from Barnett, but not Buffet."

Lawyer-lobbyist Barnett hs been at the center of the GOP battles, going as far as to field candidates in the primary election against other Republicans who don't see things his way. His positions in favor of drug legalization and Indian gambling, targeted by Buffett, have also caused him grief, but apparently not yet the votes he needs when the GOP State Central Committee meets June 12 to decide the committeeman contest.

One boast the Buffett brigade brings down is Barnett's claim that he has helped raised millions of out-of-town dollars for the state party. "That money would have come into the state regardless of Mickey," said our insider. Maybe so. But its the votes that Barnett is set to bring in that has to concern the Buffett backers.

OUR MAY-DECEMBER MATCH-UP; JUSTINE & BOB

Meanwhile, Mickey's legal secretary, 25 year old Justine-Fox Young, has reportedly raised $32,000 so far in her bid to unseat fellow Republican, State Rep. Bob White, for a GOP House seat in ABQ's NE heights. I reported a few weeks ago how Justine had a fundraising party featuring both Dems and R's, but it turns out her biggest contribution, according to those who have seen her report, is from herself in the form of a $15,000 loan. Justine's father is longtime lobbyist Charlie Young.

As for the sixty-something White, he has reportedly only raised about $7,000, but he owns a print shop, so he can unleash his printing presses on the district and is. Insiders still believe an older electorate will determine the winner in the battle and that favors White. But young Justine Young has certainly raised enough cash to replace the shoe leather she is wearing out knocking on doors.

Down in the ABQ Valley, Jerry Ortiz Y Pino, seeking the Dem nomination to replace State Senator Richard Romero who is running for Congress, tells me he has raised $25,000 so far. His primary opponent, Adele Hundley, has raised just $7,000, according to Jerry. Lawyer Reggie Garcia is also on the race, but Ortiz Y Pino is the heavy favorite as his fundraising prowess shows. The district is heavy Dem. Whoever wins the primary goes to the Roundhouse.

NO EXCUSES, BUT AN ALIBI

Our blog this week comes under the spotlight of the Alibi's "Thin Line column, with Tim McGivern offering his thoughts on our offerings. He tells me the alternative newspaper's circulation is now over 50,000 with a heavy readership in the UNM area. That makes it the second largest circulation paper in the state, with the caveat that it is a free paper. Check out the review and the rest of the paper at Alibi.com

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

HARRIET & RAY RUIZ
Friends of the well-liked State Rep. Ray Ruiz packed into the Rosary Catholic Church on ABQ's Westside Wednesday to say farewell to the friend of New Mexico working men and women. It was the biggest ABQ political funeral since Congressman Schiff's farewell in 98.' Ruiz died of lung cancer over the weekend at the age of 65. Here are the details on the funeral from friends of Ruiz on the scene.

"It seemed like the whole Roundhouse was there with as many as a couple dozen legislators joining hundreds of other mourners to pay their respects."

"House Speaker Lujan led the contingent. Coming up from Cruces was Joe Cervantes, Andy Nunez and Mary Helen Garcia. Ray's longtime buddies, (Rep's.) Saavedra and Dan Silva were there as were (Rep's.) Beam, Sandoval, Miera, Picraux, Martinez, Cordova, Hanosh and Tom Anderson from the Westside. Many labor union leaders from around NM also came."

"I think everyone was pleased to see so many Republicans on hand. Ray did not vote with them but he commanded their respect and their friendship. Senators Cararro and Cravens came. From the House, Teresa Zanetti, Larry Larranaga, Bob White and Janice Arnold-Jones."

Another Ruiz friend said Attorney General Patsy Madrid, ex- AG David Norvell and former Governor Dave Cargo also showed. Governor Bill also made a brief appearance and sat next to Ruiz's widow, Harriet. The Guv did not speak, nor were there any eulogies, other than the one delivered by the attending priest.

RUIZ' WIDOW READY FOR ROUNDHOUSE

As is tradition, talk turned to politics after the funeral. One attendee said one topic was the future of Harriet Ruiz, Ray's widow, who has announced she will seek to be appointed to fill her husbands term. That appointment would be made by the Bernalillo County Commission.

"It's a done deal," said our source. "There are no other candidates. Out of respect for Ray, they will make room for her. What happens two years down the road is a different story."

County Commissioner Alan Armijo, at the top of the ladder in ABQ Westside politics, will pave the way for Harriet, said the insider. The Democratic Party Central Committee is also expected to name Harriet as the candidate to replace her husband on the Fall ballot.

Her probable appointment had me thinking and asking about when the last time a widow of a legislator or other high elected official in our state had succeeded her dead husband. My veteran politicos said they could not think of any case in modern memory.

I remember in 1980 when Congressman Runnels died and his widow Dorothy asked to be appointed to fill his shoes, but the Democratic Party Central Committee rejected her. Runnels was replaced by Joe Skeen, who ran as a write-in candidate and who passed away in December.

Pro golfer Notah Begay was not seen at the Ruiz funeral by my reporters. But he surely is mourning the loss of Ruiz. Friends say Ray, an avid golfer, helped teach Notah the game, along with his own son, when the golf star lived near Ladera golf course. As Ruiz lay on his death bed, Notah was breaking out of a two year slump caused by a bad back and finished in the top ten at the Wachovia tournament. It was probably one of the last golf reports Ruiz ever heard and it had to bring him comfort as death came to stake its claim.

DEATH FELLS EX-REP AND GOP HEAVY BOYD SCOTT

Another passing of a major NM political figure occurred last week up in Farmington as Boyd Scott, the former mayor of that city and a nine year veteran of the State House (1974-85), died at the age of 92. Scott was a major player in NM Republican Party politics in his day. Working on GOP campaigns in the 70's and 80's, I recall how you went no where in San Juan County without Boyd Scott by your side. His blessing meant respect and votes.

Scott served as a mentor to Bill Fulginiti, executive director of the NM Municipal League, who told the Farmington Daily Times from Santa Fe: “That was invaluable. He was always good with municipal legislation. This is my 28th year here. I still think of Scottie. We’ll miss him. He was quite a guy.”

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

It's an event not to be missed by any ABQ South Valley politico worth his salt, or is it?

The alligators are out again and their tails are splashing around with the news that State Senator Manny Aragon was a no show at the recent weekend South Valley Pride Parade. Here's how one of the slithery creatures spells it out:

"Manny is always at the parade, but this year he was not. Just about anyone who is anyone in South Valley politics was there. It's another sign that he is getting ready to leave the senate and take on the presidency of Highlands University. Heck, he may even hang it up if he doesn't get the university job," allowed our friendly gator who is deeply tapped into the mysterious and arcane ways of Valley La Politica.

The Senate Majority leader and Valley powerhouse hs been the focus of intense attention throughout his career, but now the alligators have the microscopes out and are monitoring every move Manny makes, and this blog seems to be in their check-in desk. No wonder. The stakes don't get higher. If and when Aragon departs the senate, it will set off a series of power-plays and perhaps intra-party wars that will determine the path of many political careers, not to mention major legislation. Stay tuned here as I have been provided special access to the inner sanctum of the alligators by agreeing to renounce my previous Pennsylvania residency.


COOKED BOOKS AT STATE GOP?

State Republican Party Chair Allen Weh was pointing fingers last night at ousted former chair Ramsay Gorham as KOB-TV's Neil Simon hit with the news that the party may have to undergo an audit to find out just where party money has gone the past six months. The party finance report filed with the Secretary of State says over $45,000 was spent paying down debt. Trouble is there was no debt listed. Weh is blaming it on Ramsay and says it's a clerical and computer problem, but an audit is possible. Meanwhile, an amended report will be filed so the party stays out of trouble. When she left, Ramsay said the party was debt free. Whatever the case, it's Weh's problem now. With the election looming, the heat is on for the embattled GOP to get its act together.


BILL'S LONG NEW YORK MINUTE

I really don't know what to make of the very long piece that ran on Big Bill in the New York Times’ Sunday Magazine.(www,newyorktimes.com) Correspondent Jennifer Senior traveled a bunch with Bill and the piece seemed to be all over the map, kind of like the Big Guy himself. But Bill did reveal an early contact with John Kerry: "The governor also mentioned that Kerry had asked him to consider hiring his sister, Peggy Kerry, at the United Nations back when he was ambassador. ''It was totally proper,'' he told me. I didn't doubt it, but still, would Kerry really want Richardson volunteering this information?"

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Congresswoman Heather Wilson's electoral success hung heavy over the one and only broadcast debate scheduled between Democrats Richard Romero and Miles Nelson. The two squared off for an hour last night on KUNM-FM radio. I called on veteran NM Republican Bruce Donisthorpe who has provided analysis on these pages to call this one since he is neutral and has extensive Capitol Hill experience, but mainly because he is such a political junkie that he was willing to hover around the radio on a beautiful Spring night. Here’s his blow-by-blow followed by my comments.

"Romero walks away unscathed. He is the obvious frontrunner and his job was not to get hurt and he didn't. But much of the debate centered on the 'electability' issue and that worked in Nelson's favor as it was pointed out that Romero lost by over ten points when he ran against Heather in 2000.

"Richard won the debate on political points, but Nelson scored with the liberal KUNM audience. Romero is the pragmatist, pointing out how he supports universal health care but how it is unlikely it will pass. He said he thought that issue cost the Democrats the U.S. House under Clinton. Nelson was the idealist saying it's the right thing to do regardless of the politics. That idealism is appealing and if this were to be a very low turnout race Nelson might have a chance to pull an upset. But I don’t think it will be low enough."

I asked Donisthorpe who he thought Heather would like to have as an opponent in the Fall.

"When you are in politics, you like predictability. Nelson is unknown and could go out there and say anything. He could get them going with populist rhetoric. With Richard, Wilson knows the lay of the land."

Thanks Bruce. As for me, I thought Nelson, nearly breathless at times, did a pretty good job for his first time out. He brought a level of passion that resonated. Romero was well-rehearsed. Referring to his coup ousting State Senator Majority Leader Manny Aragon, Romero said he "had guts and courage" and a “record of getting things done,” in contrast to newcomer Nelson. But Richard overstepped when he referred to himself as a "great politician."

For a campaign that has a slogan of "Goodbye Heather, Hello Miles,” Nelson did little to chink Wilson's armor. But the first half of the debate he scored several jabs, especially when Richard said he had the money to win this time. "If Phil Maloof, who had all the money he needed could not beat her, it's clear that money alone won’t do it. We need a fresh approach," jabbed Nelson. But Romero opened a cut as he reminded everyone that he is "homegrown," an obvious play to the many Hispanics who will help decide the congressional nomination June 1st.

ROMERO AND THE TUBE

Friends of Romero say he is not planning any heavy TV buy for the primary, opting to save that money for the General Election. That decision continues to draw questioning from some strategists who maintain Romero needs a months long TV presence to have any chance at all of unseating Wilson. But friends say Romero is concerned about having enough cash to make the race competitive in November.

GENTLEMEN, START YOUR IGNITIONS

That crazy bill that would have required every owner of a car in NM to install an ignition interlock device to prevent drunk driving continues to be grist for the campaign mill. Blog reader and the Tribune's Shea Andersen has our report

MEA CULPA

Some of my readers received a mistaken impression on how the state house seat of Ray Ruiz will be filled in light of his passing over the weekend. Since Ray represented only Bernalillo County, the county commission, controlled by the Dem's, could choose to name a replacement to fill out his term. Meanwhile, members of the Democratic Party Central Committee will be asked to name a replacement candidate for the Fall election.

It is possible, but unlikely, that the county commission could appoint a state representative to fill out Ray's term and the central committee could name a different person to be the candidate to replace Ruiz on the ballot. With the election so close, the commission may opt not to make an appointment and let the politicos of the central committee handle the task, with the input of Big Bill, of course.

No excuses for my error, which was corrected at midday. I was writing the story late Sunday night after 18 holes of golf and also had my head into the "Sopranos." Both are habits I do not plan on giving up. I just won't indulge them while trying to blog.

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And remember to e-mail me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

After a very dark PR week for the Prez, his local re-elect team will try to generate some positive vibes by announcing today that former Democrat ABQ City Councilor Vickie Perea will switch parties and back Bush, according to GOP insiders.

Perea has many conservative stripes, so many D's may have already mistaken her for an R. She served on the council in the mid-90's and ran for mayor in 97, finishing back in the pack. She is noted for her mastery of fiscal matters and served many years in ABQ government before getting elected to the council. Will her endorsement and party switch have much impact? Not really, but after one of the worst PR weeks imaginable, Team Bush needs a diversion and Vickie Perea will apparently be it at a news conference scheduled for today.

The latest Prez poll here shows the race a dead heat. But the D's won it in 2000 and Kerry has an edge. The undecided vote is unusually low. That leaves Bush with the uphill task of peeling Hispanics away from Kerry to eke out the win, not easy in any year, and especially tough when the #1 Hispanic politico, Big Bill, is leading the Kerry charge.

FIRST LADY LAURA TO ABQ


And The Bushies are bringing in some heavy artillery this month in our battleground state. The First Lady, Laura Bush, will charge-up local bigwig Republicans who will pay a thousand bucks a pop and $5,000 a couple to meet and greet Laura at the Sheraton Old Town Inn in ABQ May 20.

That may sound like a lot of dough, but the price to chat up the First Lady only matches the $1000 a person recently charged for entrance to a reception of State. Rep. Al Park. Of course, Big Bill sponsored that greenback fiesta and he is one of the highest of the high-rollers. The money Laura raises here will go to the Republican National Committee, already awash in millions. But, as one wall-leaner put it: “ When it comes to money, apparently everyone wants one thing: more.”

DEATH CLAIMS "FRIEND OF THE WORKING MAN."

Friends, colleagues and constituents are mourning he loss of ABQ West side State Rep. Ray Ruiz. He had been sick for many months and they knew it was coming, but the loss of the well-liked Ruiz hit hard when it was announced to his friends over the weekend. "He had not served many terms (two) in Santa Fe, but he made friends fast and was one of the more likable political figures in the state,” noted veteran NM lobbyist Scott Scanland, a close friend of Ray and his family.

Ruiz, who died of lung cancer contracted while working with asbestos years ago, was a labor union leader and regarded at the Roundhouse as a great friend of the working man.

Ruiz's name will be on the June 1 primary ballot. He was running unopposed for the Dem nomination. The Bernallio County Commission can name a replacement for Ruiz, if it chooses. Meanwhile, The Dem State Central Committee will name a ballot replacement.

Goodbye to Ray Ruiz. He did good for our Land of Enchantment.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And remember to e-mail me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

I've heard the pleas and I sympathize. But asking me to stop writing about the ongoing feud in the NM GOP is like asking a bee to stay away from honey. The action this week with the naming of Whitney Cheshire as "acting" executive director of the state GOP by new chair Alan Weh, (pictured above) who has committed to serve just a year, will put the war on hiatus, but does not get the GOP anywhere closer to resolving its headline-making disputes or, more importantly, the future direction and leadership of the party. The war will flare again briefly in June when legislative candidates backed by chief Dendahlite Mickey Barnett face-off against fellow Republicans and when Barnett himself is challenged for his Republican National Committeeman position by ex-state GOP State Rep. George Buffett.

Ms. Cheshire, in a brief telephone conversation, was upset that she has been characterized in this space as a Dendahlite. She maintains she is neutral. She points out that she worked for candidates associated with both factions, including the 2000 state senate race of ousted GOP Chair Ramsay Gorham. She has also worked as a press spokeswoman for Guv candidate John Sanchez who is associated with former chair Dendahl and Barnett. But her associations and those of Mr. Weh may be irrelevant. After all, insiders point out, they won't be around when the battle is joined again next year, and besides, neither are veteran political operatives with the inclination to lead either faction.

Both are closely associated with the Bush-Cheney effort, Cheshire as communications director, Weh as a Bush administration appointee. Republicans not associated with presidential politics, but who are running for the legislature or other offices, or just concerned about the future philosophical direction of their party, are naturally curious what the temporary leadership will be able to do for them.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The immediate crisis in the state Republican Party has been stayed as the Bush-Cheney campaign has put in place temporary state party mangers who will be responsive to its main goal: winning New Mexico and its five electoral votes for Bush. From their viewpoint anything else, including pick-ups in the state legislature and other races, would be gravy. Weh and Cheshire will no doubt earn their keep, but their service will be an asterisk to the history that will be written in the post-presidential months; history which will determine whether the Republican Party can unite itself and embark on a course that will seriously threaten the 70 year dominance of New Mexico politics by the majority Democrats.

Have a great weekend and join me back here Monday for more on the ever-changing world of NM politics.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And remember to e-mail me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Sanchez
Who knows where Big Bill's whirlwind political career will take him, but if he does decide to hang around these parts, either by choice or circumstance, he might find himself doing a political deja vu. Word comes to us from Los Alamos that GOP 02' Guv candidate John Sanchez did everything but announce there that he will seek a rematch with the Big Fella in two years.

Some may be afraid to watch after the drubbing John received the first time around. While the fight wasn't fixed, it surely was a mismatch. But Sanchez is nothing if not a believer in himself. And why not? He has an appealing personal success story, looks great on TV and loves to campaign. And he has friends in high places. Among them is Karl Rove at the White House who has taken a personal interest in the ABQ North Valley businessman who served one term in the state house after ousting Speaker Raymond Sanchez in an historic political duel.

John is now a regional director for the Bush re-elect drive and is using the opportunity to travel the state and perhaps set the stage for the rematch with Bill. Here's what he said in Los Alamos as reported by the L.A Monitor: "No candidate can win that is outspent by $7 million. We forced Richardson to run like a Republican because he wouldn't have been elected otherwise. After eight years of Republican leadership, the pendulum was swinging the other way but Richardson needed to capture the conservative Democrats. It's those conservative Democrats that are having buyers remorse-the ones I didn't get that now say they made a mistake. I'm not here to say what my political plans are, but I can tell you I've never been more committed to getting New Mexico back on the right track."

Yep, It looks like a rematch if Sanchez can keep other Republicans out. And with Big Bill's popularity, why would they run? But John, please get on some political steroids before you jump in, we can't watch another match that has to be stopped by the ringside doctor.

HEY BILL, CALL ME AL

About that $1000.00 a pop fundraiser held Tuesday night in Santa Fe for State Rep. Al Park courtesy of Big Bill. (See my April 28 report). We are told by sources in the know that the event was "very successful." Translated to an educated guess, Park probably raised at least $25 grand. And a sidebar. Big Bill's generosity will surely be rewarded in the Legislature by Al who is already being talked up as a future Attorney General candidate, but Bill may also make friends with Park's father, a heavy-hitting lawyer with international business connections. That, according to a source close to Park Jr., who says such connections could come in handy for our Guv if he re-enters the national political arena.

A wild week so far in La Politica, so make sure you check our reports below so you don't miss anything. And a special note to Big Bill: Please slow down next week, we need a rest!

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And remember to e-mail me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

KERRY IN ABQ
We were eying them like they were on their first date: Big Bill and John. So, how did they get along? Will they be going out again, or was this a one afternoon stand? Rampant speculation nationwide over who Kerry will pick as his running mate heated up in our town again Tuesday when Kerry stepped off his plane for a brief "message event" designed for a quick TV pop. But did the Senator have other other designs while he was here? Here's some surprising commentary from a high-up, deep Dem insider who was in on the Kerry visit.

"I really thought Bill looked uncomfortable, almost unhappy. His body language and general demeanor were not upbeat. He seemed to be gritting it out. There was no real warmth between the two. If Bill is going to be Kerry's veep pick it was lost on me." Then our insider went a step further offering up a theory that may not be that farfetched. "I think during the stopover Kerry told Bill he would not be his VP and he will go over to Arizona and tell Governor (Janet) Napolitano the same. Maybe that's why Bill seemed almost glum during the Kerry event," offered up our informed speculator, who is not given to hallucinations. Kerry flew to LA from ABQ and will be in Phoenix Thursday.

I agree that Billl and John did not seem like young lovers and that it's possible Kerry broke Bill's heart during their private one-on-one. Kerry is known to be "vetting" the contenders and Big Bill is one of the "vettees.' It's possible the process of elimination is underway. On the other hand, maybe Bill was trying to play Humble Bill and not overshadow Kerry in any way or appear too eager for his blessing, thus his unusually subdued demeanor. Or maybe he was thinking about the responsibilities of Secretary of State, a job that Kerry may have offered him as a consolation prize.

MOSES TAKES COMMAND

MERCADO
While Senator Kerry made the rounds, word circulated on his pick to head up his NM campaign. It's Moses Mercado, say my insiders, and they say he's one of the top national political operatives in the Dem Party. He served as deputy chief of staff to U.S. House Minority Leader and one time Prez candidate Dick Gephardt. Back in 98' he plotted for congressional candidate Phil Maloof, who has close ties to the Missouri congressman.

Mercado's most important connection for us to know is to Big Bill's chief of staff David Contarino, who was also involved in the ill- fated Maloof effort. Mercado will be Kerry's top man here and Contarino will keep tabs on the operation for Big Bill, who plans on having big say on how the NM campaign is conducted. Local operatives have been complaining that Kerry's team is too Washington centric and needs to deal the local folk in. Mercado, a south Texas native, worked for Wesley Clark in the Feb. NM Prez caucus, after Gephardt dropped out. That he is Hispanic is not a coincidence as at least a third of our state's Prez votes will be cast by Hispanics.

SIMON'S MONEY; WYATT WONDERS

KOB-TV's Neil Simon hit the late news with the latest NM TV spending totals for the Prez candidates. So far, Bush has dropped $435,000 on the tube with Kerry dumping $469,000. But Simon reported Kerry had "soft money" groups pump more tube money in for him, bringing his grand NM total to $830,000, far past the Prez. The latest NM poll has the race here a dead heat. The TV sales guys hope it stays that way.


Over at KRQE-TV Tuesday, news anchor Kathy Wyatt asked me during an interview: Where is Richard Romero? She cited the new, if quite limited, TV presence of ER Doctor Miles Nelson, who is vying with Romero for the Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat held by Heather Wilson. It's a good question and one that some Democrats are quite worried about. They see the nomination for State Senator Richard as safe, but they worry why he did not hit the airwaves with an early message and build strength for the upcoming November face-off with Heather.

"Is he aware that 98 per cent of House incumbents get re-elected? Just because he has an easy primary is no reason to lay back. He should have been on TV in April," complained one staunch Dem. Romero's campaign is being run by national operatives who have their own schedule. And, perhaps Romero is concerned about overspending early. But he and they may be underestimating just how far they are behind the incumbent, despite what their internal polls may say. Don't say we didn't tell you.

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And remember to e-mail me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

RONCHETTI
Popular TV weather personality Mark Ronchetti, who played a major role in pumping life into KOAT-TV's languishing morning news effort, is headed to gray sky country at the end of the current May ratings period. That from my TV sources deep on the inside who also tell me that veteran KOB-TV weather predictor Larry Rice may also soon be history. They say they hear Rice's contract with the NBC affiliate "will not be renewed."

The twentysomething Ronchetti has spent six years at channel 7 making a name for himself as the humorous weathercaster for Action News in the morning and at noon. Insiders credit his outgoing personality with significantly boosting the morning news ratings at the ABC affiliate. "Morning viewership at 7 has gone way up in recent years. Although they are still behind KOB, there's no question that Ronchetti was a boost for them and they are going to miss him. I look for increased promotion of (morning anchor) Marisa Maes, who also tests well with the public, as 7 fights to retain the audience it has picked up," said a TV watcher familiar with the matter.

Ronchetti, a Vermont native, will be forecasting a lot more gloomy weather than he's used to as he takes up residence at a TV station in Portland, Oregon. He was lured there, according to my sources, by news director Dan Salamone, who recently left KRQE-TV to head to the Pacific Northwest. Ronchetti will see 7 thru the latest May ratings period.

LAST MINUTE FOR RICE?

Meanwhile, over at KOAT archrival KOB-TV, the forecast is more cloudy, but reliable sources tell me that longtime Chief Meteorologist Larry Rice is headed out the door. "I hear his contract will not be renewed," reports my source. Insiders speculate that KOB was not happy with the "demographics of recent ratings," meaning they are not attracting a particular audience segment they are targeting and that Rice may have fell victim to that reasoning. Another insider said perhaps the station needs to free up cash to pay for recently acquired veteran anchorman Nelson Martinez. By the way, the Martinez hiring at KOB is being cited as perhaps one of the reasons for the dismissal of KOB news director Brian Rackham last week. Apparently he did not favor the hiring of the popular news reader who joined the station in January. Rice joined the station in 1995, coming in from Seattle. I was not told when his contract expires.

PLEASE VOTE EARLY, BUT NOT OFTEN

Early voting starts today in NM's June 1 primary and we may have more of it than we did in Primary 02.' That's because election day this year falls the day after Memorial Day. Many people will still be gone for the holiday. Polling expert Brian Sanderoff tells me: "In the 2002 Democrat primary, 79% voted on Election Day and in the GOP primary 78% voted on Election Day. The rest voted absentee or early. For some reason early-absentee voting is much more popular in general elections than primaries. I think it's because in the general elections there are a lot more resources to run absentee voter programs and also because the political parties get involved."

Well said, Brian. As for how many people will vote, Sanderoff and other experts I consulted say it may be near a record low with as few as 20 per cent of the registered voters in either major party taking the time to cast ballots. That may be discouraging, but with mainly hot legislative battles to decide, there is no big race to get the electorate out. That will change in November with the Prez on the ballot.

In-person early voting begins at county clerks' offices around the state today. On May 15 early voting expands to other sites. Also, absentee ballots begin to be mailed today, meaning a lot of folks will be sitting down at the kitchen table this weekend to vote. Considering that the campaigns have barely started, many will be voting blind. That's one of the dangers of the trend toward early voting. Big stuff happens in the last couple of weeks, but it's too late to change your mind. I suggest if you have to vote early you do it as late in the election season as possible so you don't get caught voting for the guy caught with his hand in the till.

LATE BREAKING

Sources told me late Monday that Whitney Cheshire, a veteran GOP PR operative, will be named the new executive director of the NM Republican Party to replace Tom Carroll, who was axed along with the rest of the state GOP staff last month when Alan Weh took over from ousted GOP Chair Ramsay Gorham. Cheshire has been working as communications director for the NM Bush re-elect campaign. Previously, she served as press spokesman for 02' GOP Guv candidate John Sanchez. Cheshire is associated with the Dendahl faction of the GOP, which is sure to put her under close scrutiny as she begins the task of putting the state headquarters back in action.

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

The coverage has been absolutely fawning. Every other day the New Mexico press seems to be filled with a story about our garrulous Guv and how he is oh, so close to becoming running mate for soon-to-be Democratic Prez nominee John Kerry. You know all the reasons why. But what about the reasons why not? That's one story that has not been covered, until now. Calling on my expert sources across New Mexico, D's, R's and Green's, I give you the reasons why Big Bill will NOT be the next number two.

THE ETHNIC FACTOR

"Much is being made of Bill's Hispanic background and how he would be a historic pick. But his biography may be a bit thin in that regard. Remember, his father was an Anglo banker from Boston. His mother is from Mexico. It's not exactly a working-class hero story that would appeal to Latino's nationwide. Where's the "up-by-the bootstraps" part? Is it a no-brainer that Bill would pull in millions of Hispanic voters? I don't think so. Besides, Texas and California, the two biggest Hispanic states, are already decided, with Texas going to the President and California safe for Kerry. The last name of Richardson also clouds the picture. Obviously, that is not a Hispanic surname. If Kerry is looking to Bill strictly for Hispanic support, he may end up looking past him."

THE GEOGRAPHIC FACTOR

"The press spin is that our governor would bring to the table states like Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico. But is that guaranteed? Probably not. While many Hispanics live in those states, they turn out in low numbers. In October, all the focus will be on the top of the ticket. The vice-presidential candidates will be in the shadows. Who really votes for vice-president? I don't. I vote for the top guy and I think most people do. As for New Mexico, Kerry is positioned to win this state anyway. With his organization and money, Bill will probably be able to deliver this state to Kerry. So, why give him a spot on the ticket?"

THE CAREER FACTOR

"He has a great resume, no doubt about it. But he has his share of warts too. His time at the Department of Energy was controversial with the security problems at Los Alamos. He really wasn't Ambassador at the United Nations that long, and it appeared that he was eased out of the inner foreign policy circle by (Secretary of State) Madeline Albright. His congressional record also might be fodder. There's a lot of liberal voters there that could be fodder for the R's to use against him with swing voters. Also, the Monica factor. He got in deep when it was disclosed he interviewed Monica Lewinsky for a job at the United Nations, after she had concluded her affair with President Clinton. And the association with Clinton is not necessarily a plus. It is among Democrats, but how does that get you the undecided voters?

THE COSMETIC FACTOR

"Appearances may not be everything, but they account for something. Richardson is not the most telegenic politician, and this is the hyper-TV age. He looks a bit disheveled and at times his body language seems out of sync with what he says. His campaign debates with John Sanchez went ok, but I was surprised that he was not as clear-cut a winner against him as I expected. He is also a guy who likes to attack from behind the curtain. Out front, he is the great compromiser. The vice-presidential candidate will be expected to be a pit bull. Bill's personality is not necessarily in tune with that."

MY BOTTOM LINE

All the above is excellent analysis and shows how high-stakes this game is. What looks good on the surface has to hold up to the most intense scrutiny by the keenest politicos in the nation. They play tough and so will Richardson's competitors who can be counted on to exploit these weaknesses. Getting on a presidential ticket is a once on a lifetime opportunity. It won't happen by serendipity and it won't happen without a fight. The stakes are too high. Thus far, it has all been warm fuzzies for Big Bill. But things are about to get serious. No question, he has the right stuff or we would not be writing about it. No one wants to be seen as a loser. You can't say you want the job and then be humiliated when you are not picked. Bill's denial of interest in the post is a decades-old tradition among all those considered. His recent 'no comment" when asked if the Kerry folks were "vetting" his background is more revealing. But be assured, if Bill does get the call, it will be because of a no-holds-barred, behind-the scenes campaign that is going on at this very moment.

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author