New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

Luvable Guv?
Loyalists of Big Bill say enough is enough. They say it's time to start firing back at the "nitpicking" in the press, on the blogs and on the whisper circuit. It's been a defensive game for the Fourth Floor lately with the baseball draft story, a negative report over his use of state planes, and another on when he will report the proceeds of a big California fundraiser. Supporters say the Guv needs to retake the offense.

"They are trying to New Mexicanize him. That means anytime someone is successful they try to take them down. It seems to be the state sport and the Governor cannot allow himself to fall victim to it," declared one Big Bill loyalist.

And liberal radio talk show host Mike Santullo let loose with old fashioned fire and brimstone. "The alleged sins of the Governor are nothing but nitpicking. Look at the Republicans. (U.S. Rep.) Tom Delay indicted; a California congressman admits taking millions in bribes; the Vice-President's chief of staff indicted. All that and a discredited war policy that is taking the nation into the gutter. And what are they hitting the Governor for? Using a plane to get around the state and a mistake in his resume 40 years ago," bellowed the veteran politico.

"I know he won't hit back directly and dignify the critics, but the state Democratic party needs to start a better offense on his behalf. The campaign is here and now. To hell with waiting for the calendar," fumed Santullo as he echoed the war tone of several other D's checking in here.

ABQ JOURNAL QUESTIONED

Another Dem insider took on the ABQ Journal's recent news report and editorial hitting Big Bill for not immediately releasing donors to his California fundraiser. The Guv's office says the records will be released when campaign reports are due.

"Do they ask (Senator Pete) Domenici to immediately release his campaign donors? Or Heather Wilson? No. They wait for the reports. So why such a big deal over the Governor? It's a double standard and smacks of innuendo," decried our Dem.

FROM THE FOURTH FLOOR

At the Governor's office the official line is more restrained, but it is evident that they too are tiring of the drumbeat. Communications Director Pahl Shipley, responding to the R operative who blasted the Guv on this blog Monday, swung into action Tuesday:

"The General Services Department (GSD) keeps the records for state aircraft and GSD has complied with every request for those records. Several media organizations have reviewed the material. It is wrong to say the Governor hasn’t made them available.

Also, the Governor has always fully complied with campaign finance requirements, and...documents every dollar received. Rarely, if ever, do candidates (Republicans included) provide fundraiser information on a case by case basis. To portray him as secretive is a blatant political attack with no basis in fact," said the head flack.

And without supplying details, Shipley indicated that a Big Bill counteroffensive will be more noticeable in the days ahead.

MORE LUV FOR THE GUV

Another Dem upset at the turn of events e-mails in: "You have a Governor who has advanced the most progressive agenda in a generation. But the Republicans are trying to put it in the shadows and demonize him. But do you hear them offer even one concrete policy proposal to get this state moving again? He has ideas. They have snipers."

There is also scuttlebutt that the Guv may not only be fighting the R's but possible Dem opponents for the 08' Prez nomination and perhaps, just perhaps, they could be starting some of the mischief. It seems whomever fires volleys in the future better be prepared to reload. Big Bill's camp is returning the fire.

PATSY AND HEATHER: ROUND ONE
Madrid
Just as we got done blogging that negotiating the Iraq war on the campaign trail would take all her formidable political skills, there was ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson stepping into the minefields. A House Intelligence Committee member, she defended her party's decision to block an investigation into faulty information about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction saying: "We would do the country a terrible disservice if we spent our time looking in the rearview mirror." It was just the kind of opening the D's wished for and got Dem congressional hopeful Patricia Madrid off the bench and at bat:

“America’s citizens are paying a high cost for this conflict in tax dollars, and, more than that, America’s soldiers are paying an even higher cost – they are being asked to give their lives. The least that the government of this nation can do is to tell them why they are being asked to pay that price,” scored Madrid.

Who's to say who scores on this first round? But the fact that there is a round this early does underscore the opinion in top tier political circles that, for now, this race is in play and that Heather and Patsy have only scratched the surface.

DROP ME A LINE

And it looked like it was going to be a slow week! Thanks for your company and don't forget to e-mail me your New Mexico political news. You can remain anonyomous, just be right. There's a link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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Rep. Wilson
It is Heather the Hawk in the ABQ GOP Congresswoman's most recent statement on the problem-ridden Iraq war. She continues to equate the war with the fight against terrorism. "If they weren't blowing them up in Amman, they would be blowing them up in America. We are much better off hunting them down there, and I have no problem at all articulating that whether it's an election year or not."

Contrast that tough talk with her recent statement posted here saying 2006 could be the year troops finally start returning home. "I expect U.S. forces to stay in Iraq through December's elections at roughly the current level. But...if political and security progress continues...American forces should be able to start being drawn down in significant numbers during the course of the next year."

Heather Hawk appeals to the conservative GOP base and Heather Dove appeals to swing voters who have had enough of the war and are looking for a way out. The life span of Heather Hawk could be limited to the time leading up to the June primary. After that, a larger pool of voters becomes engaged who have the potential to go either way.

The Iraq war is a dilemma on all fronts. In the year ahead it will continue to test the patience of the American nation and the formidable political skills of New Mexico's Heather Wilson.

HEATHER BY THE NUMBERS

It's been assumed here and elsewhere that Heather wracked up a ten point win over Dem Richard Romero in 04', but the numbers can change with the final canvass and the change in this one is worth mentioning.

While fiddling around on the secretary of state's Web site, I ran the final numbers and found that Wilson actually beat Romero by 8.9%, not ten percent. Her 2002 victory was a ten point win, but 04' was not quite the landslide that it was made out to be Election Night.

HEATHER'S LUNCH BUNCH

Heather recently had her first Capitol Hill fundraiser since learning that she would get a challenge from Dem Attorney General Patricia Madrid next year.

She hosted a lunch at La Colline, asking individuals for $500 and political action committees for $1,000. She was also one of the beneficiaries of a fundraiser that the Republican Main Street Partnership hosted in Washington. Wilson's campaign kitty contained $732,000 as of Sept. 30.

Still on the 1st CD, Dem Chris Berkheimer will not run for the Dem nomination to take on Heather, yielding to party heavy Madrid. Says Chris: "Joe, I am no longer considering a run. Instead, I will support AG Madrid. I am going to be her co-chair for veterans outreach and will informally advise her on national security and homeland security."

Berkheimer worked Homeland Security for Big Bill and is a veteran of the first Gulf war.

BIG BILL: ULTIMATE EDITOR

Big Bill continues his quest to lift the New Mexico journalistic fraternity out of poverty and into his army of spin doctors. Radio news reporter Tom Trowbridge is the latest to head for the secure embrace of state employment, setting up shop at the NM Transportation department. Tom is known statewide for anchoring the "Dateline New Mexico" broadcasts for a time and for his work at ABQ'S KUNM-89.9 FM.

Big Bill said he would work to raise the per capita income of all New Mexicans. When it comes to ex-reporters, it is a campaign promise that has been fulfilled over and over again.

E-mail me your latest political news, gossip and juicy tidbits and help keep the politics coming.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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It was a long holiday weekend of indigestion for Big Bill as news hit that his gold-plated resume had a turkey in it--he was not drafted by a major league baseball team as his bio has stated all these years. That was enough for the national media to clear their holiday plates and get back to work and cast the Guv's quest for the White House in a new light.

"The good news is the mishap came early and the bad news is that it came early," explained one Big Bill watcher. "The campaign has a long way to go so getting this out now gives him a chance to recover. At the same time, the national press which has been fairly glowing in their approach, now have reason to be tougher on him, not to mention the other contenders for the nomination."

The Guv's admission of resume inflation was released on Thanksgiving, giving hope to his numerous spinmeisters that its impact would be minimal. But in a perverse sort of way it got even more attention because there was nothing else going on in politics.

"It's the credibility issue that has to concern them," offered a Big Bill sympathizer. "It won't be dubbed 'Baseballgate,' but now the microscopes are on high power and everything he says, at least in the short term, is going to be greeted more skeptically. The presidential elimination process is fickle. At this level of politics, it's the little things that can can cause the most grief. He needs to circle the wagons and get his campaign running at a more disciplined level."

FEW HITS, LOTS OF ERRORS

Not that there was a lot he could do about this mishap. He has been saying he was drafted for over twenty years. But the news came on the heels of several other campaign misfires, according to yet another Big Bill examiner.

"He flew to New Hampshire the same day it was revealed that the state was buying an expensive jet plane for his use. That was hit number one. Then his first TV spot for his re-election campaign had faulty information. Now this. Do you see Hillary Clinton with these problems?"

Some Santa Fe wall-leaners were saying its time for the Guv's chief of staff, Dave Contarino, to move over to the campaign full-time as is his widely expected. Others said Big Bill also needs a national political operative who can be charged with looking at the big picture and heading off trouble.

"Someone with national experience could be placed on the Guv's re-elect staff, someone he will actually listen to. It's like that old saying: When you decide to be your own lawyer, you have a fool for a client." Declared the insider.

TIMING YOUR PITCHES

Still, Big Bill remains blessed with ineffective opponents, at least when it comes to his re-election bid. "The R's are still on Sominex. If they have any hope of making a game of this they need to be out on the field now. But they are not and that gives Bill breathing room." Commented a GOP operative.

But politics is is a fast-paced biz these days and some R's were clamoring for action when they heard of Big Bill's bean ball. "Let me pile on, Joe. He won't release records on how he uses state airplanes; he was recently hit for not releasing records of a California fundraiser and now the resume incident. Is it a pattern of deception? There's a case to be made, but do we have the talent and drive to do it?" Wondered our frustrated GOP operative.

The Big Bill persona still dominates and the river of goodwill among New Mexicans runs deep. But the chinks in the armor--the incidents mentioned here and the balky Legislature he had during the recent special session--are now laid bare.

"It's giant chessboard and you have to be looking at all the pieces all the time before you make a move. What they have not understood is that behind every move is a countermove and you have to watch out for it. You've got to think about what can go wrong, not what can go right." Said another longtime Dem observer of high-level politics.

And so it goes on the brightly lit stage of La Politica where the stakes are the glory and the power. Every pitch you throw is seen by millions. Even a wild one thrown those many years ago.

MORE PREZ BUZZ

And there's more from the Prez trail. The Guv is starting to move a bit on the Iraq war. Instead of 'staying the course,' he's now saying: "It is now time for the military commanders to design a phased, definitive withdrawal plan." Hey, is Hillary Clinton saying that? Not yet. And is wanna be Congresswoman Patricia Madrid? Inquiring minds would like to know.

LET'S PARTY BLOG

Having a holiday bash featuring your favorite politicos? Don't forget your blog. Let me know where and when and we'll tag along and feature some of the highlights right here. Don't worry, no embarrassing photos of politicos kissing strangers under the Mistletoe, not without your permission anyway. And we work for food, so no added expense either. Just drop me an e-mail and lets celebrate the season ala La Politica.

E-mail me your news and comments and help keep the politics coming. There's link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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NM Congressmen Steve Pearce and Tom Udall already have a lot to be thankful for but their Thanksgiving celebrations could be doubly blessed this year if some opponents don't surface soon. So far, neither the GOP's Pearce who represents southern NM or Dem Udall from the north have heard a peep from a prospective opponent.

"No significant names have surfaced and with less than a year before the vote that's unusual," checked in our congressional watcher. "The D's have made two good runs at Steve with John Arthur Smith and Gary King, but could not close the deal. The 06' race is not going to be targeted by the national D's and it is conceivable that Steve could get a free ride, although you would expect some kind of sacrificial lamb to surface," added our insider.

And what about Udall? "The seat is so D safe that even if an R has been making noise about running it's being ignored. But I've heard no names." Offered our analyst.

Actually, Udall would be more vulnerable to a Democratic primary challenge than from a GOP opponent. There is no Hispanic in our state's congressional delegation and Udall's district was designed for a Hispanic. But he has overcome that obstacle by taking nothing for granted. His staff is heavy with Hispanics and there has been no public talk of a primary opponent.

Both Congressmen have their political antenna fine-tuned. They know that if a serious challenge is not announced by year end, they will end up unopposed or facing token opposition. Combine that with their recent pay raise to $165,000 a year, and you have the makings of a very cheery holiday season indeed.

SHORT TAKES

Politicos are asking who will replace James Lewis as the city of ABQ's chief administrative officer. City Hall sources say names in the running include current Chief Operating Officer Ed Adams (A Republican) and Bruce Perlman, director of the School of Public Administration at the University of New Mexico, a friend of Mayor Marty and a leader of his transition team...Our mention of Valencia County Dem State Rep. Fred Luna and whether he will seek another term brought this from a reliable Alligator: "Fred's son, Paul, may be interested in succeeding him. Also Elias Barela, a young turk Democrat lawyer, has already announced that he is running even if Fred does run. Ah Valencia, the Southern most Northern county."...And a Santa Fe reader makes a good point on the proposed statewide minimum wage. "It would be $7.50 an hour and would be lower than the Santa Fe minimum wage which is at $8.50 and set to go to $9.50 an hour." That does make it a more interesting vote for Santa Fe county's Dem reps when they meet at the Merry Roundhouse in January.

THANKSGIVING 2005

This is my third Thanksgiving on the blog and I am thankful for you, my indulgent and understanding readers, and for my past and current advertisers who have made it possible. All media is notoriously unstable so to be at this for two years and two months is considered a long run. Of course, I joke that New Mexico, despite its relatively small population, is one of the few states that generates enough political news to support a professional, non-partisan blog.

All New Mexicans have much to be thankful for. Is there a more splendid natural environment anywhere? And the mystery of the place. You can live here for decades, yet New Mexico somehow keeps something to itself, making you search for the meaning. And the rhythm of your life. It's more of a choice in New Mexico than elsewhere, isn't it?

For a day or two we can put aside our state's problems and give thanks for just being, and especially for being here in our truly Enchanted Land.

And if that's too syrupy for you, check out Julia Goldberg and enjoy her case of over-the-top holiday angst.

Happy Thanksgiving New Mexico.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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Hey, we've got action in the State House races. I know. I didn't expect much this year either. But here we go. With GOP State Rep. Greg Payne ready to resign his NE Heights seat to become ABQ Mayor Marty's transit director, names are percolating up for the Bernalillo County Commission to consider as a replacement for the high-profile Payne.

Bill Rehm, a Republican who Payne beat in a primary, is on the Alligators' list as is R Ward Camp who ran for the Public Regulation Commission last year. D attorney David Campbell who has run in the heavily Republican area is also making a play for the appointment, say the in-the know insiders. They also say don't look for the commission to go it alone. They may very well ask the GOP ward bosses in the Payne district to give them a pick to name. They did something similar when there was a South Valley legislative vacancy. Ernie Chavez was tapped for that slot.

Meanwhile, up in Santa Fe, news broke over the weekend that City Different Mayor Larry Delgado, finishing up an eight year stint, has his eye on replacing Dem State Rep. Lucky Varela who is making a run for State Treasurer.

PROGENY OF THE LEGENDS

Back in the City, what's this about the young grandson of former NM State Rep. Bennie Aragon, Dominic Aragon, wanting to replace Harriet Ruiz on ABQ's Westside? Harriet is not seeking re-election. And another of the new generation of politicos, Pat Baca Jr., son of legendary ex-city councilor and county commissioner Pat Baca, may be ready to run in a Dem primary against Aragon. Dan Serrano is already campaigning for the Dem nomination. R's need not apply in this big D seat.

South to Valencia County, friends of longtime State Rep. Fred Luna,(he goes back to the 70's in this seat) say this may be his last time around the track. But they've have been saying that for years. If Fred does finally call it quits, it could position R Jackie Farnsworth for the swing district. She's run a couple of strong races against Luna.

CASH FOR COLLEGE

The 2006 Legislative session fast approaches so Big Bill is whipping out the fat state wallet. Monday he pulled out a $50 million proposal for college scholarships for students who may not qualify for those given from state lottery proceeds. The R's are right if they try to make this an endowment fund that finances the scholarships out of interest income. But the program, at first blush, seems to be the kind of long-range use of the estimated $1 billion surplus that will make a difference. It definitely will for those who did not go to college right after high school.

Santa Fe is also talking about another $50 million. This for the pre-K program. That's up from an experimental $5 mil last year. But there are a lot more questions about the worthiness of that one than with the scholarship plan.

KEEPING UP WITH THE JONES

Attention politicos. Put the name of Jeff Jones on your list. He's the new politics reporter for the ABQ Journal. Jones previously worked the gambling beat where I got to know him in my PR role in which I serve as a spokesman for a group opposed to off-reservation casinos. He is a straight shooter with no ax to grind. But his new job must be tough. His predecessors, Andy Lenderman, now at the New Mexican and Loie Fecteau, now with state government, each left the political beat in the last two years. Your blogger is in year 31 of New Mexico political coverage, but it has not been a straight line, there being a number of years when I would have nothing to do with La Politica. But you see, I have this problem...

Jones has 11 years under his belt at the Journal, giving him long-range perspective. He will need it as he is competing against, among others, Santa Fe AP veterans Barrey Massey and Deborah Baker, the ABQ Tribune's buoyant Kate Nash and the grizzled, but never grizzly Steve Terrell of the New Mexican who shares his war stories (Korea, Gulf I) with new co-worker and fellow Journal refugee David Miles.

I appreciate your company and continued support. See you again tomorrow for a pre-holiday blog after which we break to give thanks for being able to call this Enchanted Land our home.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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We can't get to Thanksgiving Day soon enough. Did you see that pre-recess breakdown in civility in the U.S. House of Representatives, replete with catcalls, boos and cheers and foot stomping? It looked like something out of a Toney Anaya Banana Republic. But losing a war does that; just what it does to our politics is still a matter in motion. But when kids are dying on foreign battlefields, oil prices are threatening economic well-being and when aging boomers are freaking out over health care, you know you are in a time when politics matter, really matter. Which brings us to New Mexico's Heather Wilson and how she has been navigating the stormiest capital weather since Watergate and Vietnam.

DODGING BULLETS

How many bullets can ABQ GOP U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson dodge? First, there was her non-position on the Prez's plans for Social Security reform. Fortunately for Heather the plan died and will apparently not be a major issue in next year's campaign against Dem hopeful Attorney General Patricia Madrid.

Now, she has bought political protection by becoming just one of 14 House R's to vote against a budget cutting plan that passed and takes a big chunk out of the Medicaid program for the poor, a program heavily relied on in her district. Dems may argue her House leaders gave her a pass, but it's how a Dem rep from ABQ would have voted. But what of the really big issue, the out-of-control-no-end-in-sight Iraq war?

TAKING OUT HEATHER
Rep. Wilson
Talented political observers here now see it as the best hope to finally give Heather the run the D's have promised and failed to deliver since she first won in 98'. "This one may call for a gamble. Madrid could stake out a firm anti-war position and at the same time placate the big defense establishment here by pledging funding and strong mission support.

"A tough anti-war stand by Madrid combined with public opposition could finally put Heather on the defensive. It might be uncomfortable for some Dems up for re-election, like Governor Richardson and Bingaman, but as bad as things have gone, Heather is still formidable. It's unlikely they take her out on the social issues. They have already tried. It's the war and only the war.

"If it is calmed down by campaign time, Heather probably wins. If it continues, Madrid may still have to gamble. Her opposition now and into the spring could nail down the Democrat base, probably avoid a Green Party challenge and attract swing voters who are now anti-war." So argued a D insider.

Another politico counseled that Wilson's position on the House Intelligence Committee is another field to plow. "Where was U.S. intelligence and what were Heather and the R's doing about it? We may be able to challenge her on national security which is key to her credibility."

THE MURKY FUTURE

Heather has moved in the direction of a phased Iraq withdrawal, quoting a military general who says it may be possible to begin it in 06.' Will she take a cue from the polls and go further in the anti-war direction? Will Madrid force her hand, demanding explanations and accountability from the majority party or decide the safe play, unsuccessful in the past, will finally have its day? Will the war recede by next November? Or will it be successful, vindicating the President? Who knows? More than ever, those who aspire to the national stage are at the mercies of forces larger than themselves.

For now, brave, young American men are fighting and falling on the battlefields of Iraq. For them politics is a matter of life and death. Congresswoman Wilson and Attorney General Madrid have much to discuss.

RENT THAT CAR

Don't forget our longtime sponsor, Enterprise-rent-a-car, when making your holiday travel plans. They have what you need to keep movin'.

E-mail me your news and comments and help keep the politics coming. There's link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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Big Bill makes the cut, but he has a way to go before he impresses the impresarios along the Potomac and makes the top tier of Dem Prez hopefuls. That from the in-the-know and well-respected National Journal(subscription) which is out with a take on our Guv that insiders will thrive on. Here are excerpts from the piece by Chuck Todd.

"Apart from his gargantuan ego, we came away more impressed with his credentials as a major presidential candidate even while having doubts about whether 2008 will be his year...If a Democratic consultant were trying to create the ideal presidential candidate, Richardson would be the model: He's a sitting Western governor from a red state who has vast experience in foreign affairs.

The only thing the lab would add that Richardson's missing is a stable full of kids, military experience and, shall we say, a svelte physique...But for some reason, in the national Democratic salons... Richardson's not viewed as top tier in the 2008 anti-Hillary sweepstakes.

We attribute Richardson's struggles..to a whisper campaign that contends he's a bit reckless and "unpresidential" (whatever that means). This is a reputation that's likely been earned by the fact that he's got a blunt way of speaking to folks in private...There's a "soft" side missing to Richardson's personality that also has us wondering if he's just not going to be able to appeal to women as well as other Democrats.

Richardson bullied his way to the top of New Mexico politics...which leads us to believe he is a sure-bet to run in 2008--no matter how unstoppable Clinton appears... Candidate Richardson has some flaws, but barring some skeleton he's failed to reveal, they are flaws he can overcome. Dismiss his chances in 2008 at your own peril."

Thanks Chuck. Should we we start the "Skeleton Watch?"

BILL AND THE TAX-CUTTERS

Nothing enrages Big Bill's conservative detractors more than to hear him called a tax cutter, even on the right-wing Fox News. NM Capitol reporter Walt Rubel joins the debate with a long and strong piece on the fight between Big Bill and conservatives over how he will be viewed on this critical issue here and nationally.

TEACHERS RULE

Big Bill is out with his first idea for the huge state surplus (now $1 billion!) generated by oil and gas royalties. He wants to raise teachers' salaries six per cent at a cost of $109 million. But that's an expense that would reoccur each year, while the surplus is not guaranteed to be there every year. So what are his plans, if any, to fund that pay hike long-term?

READERS BLOG THE SURPLUS

We've been asking our readers what they think should be done with the big pot of money. Here's a round-up.

An ABQ reader gets right to the point: “Use the money for capital improvements at public schools (pre K-12) that should have continued to be funded out of lottery proceeds."

Anna Otero Hatanaka of the ABQ social services community has some definite ideas: "It is imperative that the Medicaid program be adequately funded to avoid additional cuts in services and reimbursement rates. Also, cuts in services and rates totaling $40 Million in state general funds, implemented last fiscal year, should be restored. The health of our citizens and our service providers must be a priority. “

Ruth Hoffman of the Lutheran Office of Governmental Ministry in Santa Fe agreed and added: “Restore eligibility for child care assistance to 200% of the federal poverty level. Child care assistance was cut in 2001 from 200% to 100% of the poverty level and has been raised back to 150% so far. What about increasing funding for food banks and the homeless? Programs trying to meet the needs of the most vulnerable among us need to be more adequately funded."

Bill Jordan, Deputy Director of New Mexico Voices for Children, agreed and called for repealing an eligibility rule that has seen 20,000 children dropped from Medicaid.

CARLSBAD BLOGS US OUT

And from Carlsbad Mark Schinnerer tells the blog: “Use it to attract the oil companies to NM to build new oil refineries (jobs, income taxes, consumer spending all come from working folks) and to heavily invest in alternative fuel development (again, new jobs).

"If you want to spend it on education then invest in expanding nursing programs. The biggest worker shortage today, and for the foreseeable future, is in nursing. The problem is that nursing instructors are few and far between because we don't pay them."

We’ve got some pretty bright readers, and I like the emphasis on the young. Why should they inherit a state that ranks 48th and 49th in key rankings? New Mexico now has chance to do something big, really big. Will we?

Thanks for the company today. Stop by again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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Councilor-elect Harris
The warm climes of Chihuahua, Mexico were replaced by the chilly winds of the Big Duke City as ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez arrived back in town to learn that his chosen candidate in a city council run-off election had crashed and burned. But as he absorbed the news of Councilor Tina Cummins' landslide loss to attorney Don Harris, he was warmed by the news that his recent archrival, Bernalillo County Republican Party Chairman Ken Zangara, has resigned, just six weeks after he and GOP State Chair Allen Weh were handed a major setback when Marty defeated their chosen mayoral candidate, Brad Winter.

Let's start with the Harris victory and the power and policy implications for the state's largest city.

"It's not good for the mayor. He overreached by getting so involved for Tina. After winning the mayor's race he has just burned a lot of political capital. He used his campaign staff and went very public against Don. The Harris win could shake-up the balance of power and make the councilors more bold." Analyzed one city politico in the game for decades.

Another observer called it a case of "incumbentitis." "He has nothing to lose since he's not running again so he decided to go for it. When you come off a big win, you sometimes think you are invincible. The voters are quick to remind you otherwise," said our South Valley Alligator who has a rotary phone and no computer but a surplus of political savvy.

POWER BY THE NUMBERS

About that balance of power. It comes down to this. It takes six votes on the nine member council to override a mayoral veto. Not that there are a bunch of vetoes, but some observers were saying that the Harris victory puts those six votes more in reach than at any other time since Chavez has been mayor.

"This could give the council more incentive to act independent of the mayor. It's a complete turnaround from last month when he ruled supreme with his huge win. The first test will be who gets council president. I would bet it will not be candidate aligned with the 11th floor," decalred another political junkie picking apart the results from the far Northeast Heights council district.

DENISH SPOTTED ON TRAIL
Lt. Guv Denish
Calling from his victory party late last night Harris told me he will be an "independent" councilor. He said not only did Chavez weigh in against him, but that NM Dem Light Guv Diane Denish recorded an automatic phone call urging Democratic women to support Republican Cummins. A Harris backer was quick to point out that Denish's husband, Herb, runs a consulting business that lobbies the city council. Ouch!

As for Mayor Marty, his campaign received a treasure trove of loot from the development community and the Alligators pegged his misstep, in part, on his loyalty to them as represented by Cummins who is in the real estate business.

Harris said the mayor called and congratulated him on the victory but they did not discuss the mayor's active campaign against him. "We will meet later." Harris informed. He also said his top priority, one shared by Chavez, is to put more cops on the street. But Harris, obviously still smarting from Chavez's impotent sting, dismissed the mayor's approach saying" "We need to get this done the right way."

The outspoken Republican must be looking forward to his meeting with the city's chief executive. His constituents too. After all, there must be some things Councilor-elect Harris' district is in need of that the mayor could help with. If not, trying to override a mayoral veto sometime just might look appealing. Stay tuned.

ZANGARA'S LAST DEAL

And now the Zangara saga. The county chair let loose for ABQ City Councilor Brad Winter in the mayoral race, so much so that Mayor Marty took to the airwaves on our KANW 89.1 FM Election Night broadcast and declared Zangara "a crook."

For Zangara the news of late has not been uplifting. A presidential nomination for an ambassadorship never came through, his car dealership has been under fire from the attorney general's office and the auto business, if you read the biz pages, is much more demanding these days.

Zangara's stint as county chair goes back to the 01' ABQ mayor's race when he was unable to deliver the prize to Mike McEntee despite another loud public endorsement. But Zangara wins praise from his fellow R's for raising a boatload of money for President Bush and for trying hard to keep the local party relevant. He was also a major player in the state GOP wars pitting ex-chair Ramsay Gorham against the GOP renegade faction led by lawyer-lobbyist Mickey Barnett. His ultimately unsuccessful support of Gorham is seen as contributing to Barnett's defeat as NM GOP National Committeeman and the weakened state of that faction today.

Fernando C de Baca is expected to take over the chairmanship. Fernando is an old-line R who sought a Bernalillo county senate seat in 04' and is expected by insiders to provide a smooth transition.

Ken Zangara was a loyal solider in many storied battles of New Mexico La Politica. His exit comes at a troubled time for his beloved President and party. Now the story goes on without him, as one day it will for all of us. May it ever be so.

Thanks for tuning in today. Drop me an e-mail with your latest political news and keep all of us up to date.

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A jet plane, a Lincoln Navigator and now a Rose Bowl float. It seems any form of transit Big Bill employs is sure to make big headlines. The traveling Guv's decision to wave to the crowds from the annual Rose Bowl Parade January 2 may turn out to be a nice PR coup for New Mexico, but political pros questioned the timing of the announcement and the attendant squealing it provoked.

"It shows the quandary he is in as he runs for President and Governor simultaneously. The float appearance is going to stiffen opposition among the GOP base, keeping him out of that 60% approval range, but if he doesn't take advantage of such opportunities the other presidential candidates can get the jump on him," analyzed one Alligator.

He's right too. The Prez cycle has started earlier than ever, but GOP Guv hopeful J.R. Damron has already said he will make Big Bill's travel a central issue. But the Guv reportedly also plans an earlier than ever media blitz for his 06' re-elect, hoping to prevent any such attacks from gaining momentum.

HOW TO TREAT THE BOSS

And how about the state marketing director justifying the Rose float? "The (Governor) is the best marketing tool I've got. If it was up to me, I'd put the Governor on everything because it doesn't cost me any money." He said with bravado.

That drew this e-mail stinger: "The best marketing tool? What happened to the natural beauty, the mountains, the ski areas, the native culture, the weather and the rest that has made New Mexico a tourist mecca for a hundred years?" queried our correspondent.

Of course, the float will cost the state money, just as it costs the state to pay it's marketing director who obviously is no tourist when it comes to pleasing the boss.

That's a camera phone photo of Big Bill's new book posted at the top of today's blog that I took at Borders. Contrary to what sarcastic R's say, the book is not in the 'fiction' section.

NM BAD BOYS GET BIG JOBS
Eric Griego
First, former ABQ City Councilor and current ABQ GOP State Rep. Greg Payne lands a plum city job as transit director. Now, the guy Payne constantly sparred with on the city council and who made an unsuccessful bid for Mayor this year, Eric Griego, has followed suit. And he got his job from Rick Homans who also ran for ABQ Mayor four years ago, as Tim McGivern, radio's Larry Ahrens and others were quick to point out.

Economic Development Secretary Homans has hired Griego as an assistant secretary for economic development.

Griego finished a distant second in the October mayoral election but ran a pretty decent campaign, excluding the behind-the-scenes tongue lashings he gave the press every chance he got for allegedly failing to cover his campaign and for favoring Mayor Marty.

Well, here's Griego's chance to earn some positive press. But Eric, think big. No more call centers please, or back to the back pages you go.

BLOG SPENDING SPREE

It consumes over half the sate budget already, but when I asked for suggestions on how to improve NM with some of the huge surplus dollars that will be available next year, education was high on the list. Bayard, NM native Isaac Martinez, now a freshman at Harvard University, was one of several who emailed in a wish list.

"Increase the pay for teachers so we attract the best possible; look into different methods of education, instead of trying to find one solution, challenge the universities to not raise tuition rates so every New Mexican can attend college.

"Better grade school education means better college students, which means better college graduates, which will attract companies and jobs. If New Mexico wants a better quality of life, it has to start with a greater investment in education," argued Isaac.

Good point, but how about accountability for all the dollars we are already spending?

Dr. Daniel Berg of Gallup, NM says some of the over $600 million surplus should be targeted at the long-standing booze problem in his area:

"In McKinley County we have a need for an inpatient alcohol and mental health facility. We also need more money for schools. Our county is close to last in academic achievement. We also need money to pave roads, deliver electricity, and build a cell phone infrastructure for rural inhabitants." Wished the Doc who is also a member of the NM Dem Party Central Committee.

I'll post some more of the best reader wish lists tomorrow. Send me yours.

MY BOTTOM LINES

It seems like he's been around forever, but it's been 20 years in the Legislature for Santa Fe Dem State Rep. Lucky Varela, not 30, as I informed you yesterday when reporting on Lucky's run for State Treasurer...And Lucky's son, Jeff Varela, emails in that he "resigned" and was not given the ax by Big Bill from his job as state personnel director.

Roxanne Rivera has exited NM GOP headquarters after a short stint as communications director. She is returning to her consulting firm...Santa Fe Lobbyist Vincent (Vinnie) Villanueva has passed away. He was 62...Former GOP State Rep. turned lobbyist, Joe Thompson, is now teamed with Dem veteran lobbyist Tom Rutherford and the Rutherford Group...Mark Fleischer, campaign manager for ABQ Mayor Marty, is working it for ABQ Councilor Tina Cummins in today's District Nine city council run-off election. She faces fellow R Don Harris. Fleischer is now associated with Santa Fe lobbyist Butch Maki, major friend of Big Bill.

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Lucky Varela
Not only does it appear very likely that veteran NM Dem Santa Fe State Rep. Lucky Varela will leave the Roundhouse after three decades and seek the D nomination for State Treasurer, but he may have some company. D ABQ State Rep. Al Park, long eyeing a race for Attorney General, is now seriously weighing a Treasurer bid, say friends of the 34 year old lawyer.

"Lucky will likely announce this week. He is drawn to the post because of his finance background and because he is ready for a change after decades in the Legislature. Park has polled the AG's race and with Gary King in the race, it looks difficult for him. He may switch and set up a Treasurer primary between Lucky and him," reports one Wall-Leaner following the action.

Varela leaving the Roundhouse will leave another big hole in House financial expertise. He is chair of the powerful Legislative Finance Committee and a prominent voice on the Appropriations Committee.

"It could give the Governor a power pop. There are not that many legislators who know the ins and outs of the budget and are able to stand up to him," offered another insider.

Hey, wasn't it Big Bill who gave the ax to Lucky's son, Jeff Varela, as head of state personnel a couple of years ago and hasn't Jeff been on the warpath against Bill ever since? Sure was. But Treasurer Lucky would not be nearly as much in the face of the Fourth Floor as legislator Lucky. Ah, the angles of La Politica!

THE KEY FACTORS
Rep. Al Park
But will voters warm to a Hispanic Dem after the epic corruption scandal fingering Treasurers Montoya and Vigil? And can the young and aggressive Park, if he does go, show on his resume sufficient financial expertise? And what about the R's? They have a golden opportunity, but they failed to field a candidate against Vigil in 02' and so far none have surfaced for 06'. And then there is tax chief Jan Goodwin, mentioned as a possible interim treasurer and who sought the post against Vigil. Will she join the party?

And who will replace Lucky in the Legislature? Already friends of Letitia Montoya, who is contemplating a bid for Secretary of State, are touting her as a possible. It's a nice prize, maybe nice enough to even prompt some politicos to take up new addresses so they could run for the Lucky spot.

No doubt the Treasurer race, normally low-key and back-burner, will be front and center in 06' as New Mexicans come to grips with the office that runs $5 billion of their money and may
be mired in court battles for at least the next year.

BEYOND THE TREASURER

And the tongues continue to wag over just what the Feds are up to. Will the investigation expand, or has it already expanded, to include the investment practices of other sate agencies?

We get top-notch analysis from top state legal sources. Here's some more from one with experience in all aspects of the law.

"Ex-Treasurer Robert) Vigil and (Vigil attorney) Bregman have to know that under the Fed scheme of things you only get consideration on a sentence if you roll over and acknowledge your sins. If you go down fighting, things are actually added to your sentence because your protestation of innocence was a lie. The new charges against Vigil are an indication perhaps that we ain't seen the last results from the evidence in the Feds' bag. Whether there's a smart game going on, or a big fall in the making. That's the question.

"At least one knowledgeable state hand has wondered aloud why no one has looked at other parts of state gov't, and assumed some credence to a Santa Fe rumor that the Feds are looking at other agencies." Penned our authoritative and tapped-in source.

So, are other state agencies that invest state cash being probed? The press, so far, has been quiet on whether that will be the next keg to explode in this historic scandal.

PENNIES FROM HEAVEN

With the state projecting record budget surpluses for yet another fiscal year--at least $650 million and maybe more--ideas are starting to percolate on how best to use that money. Blog reader Jay Jenkins of Carlsbad starts the bidding.

"What about roads! Every time we turn around there is no money for roads (outside of GRIP). Why can’t we put a large portion of the surplus in the road fund to be equally divided among the transportation districts. That surplus comes from oil and gas around San Juan county and in Eddy and Lea counties in the south. Isn’t it time we invest in the infrastructure that gives us these great benefits?" Wonders Jenkins.

But Jay, GRIP is already putting $1.6 billion into roads. And you want more? Well,
the huge pot of money from oil and gas is going to be like a honey pot for every interest group and legislator from Cruces to Chama. It will take firm leadership from the Guv and key legislators to ensure the money, offering a historic opportunity to tackle nagging social and other problems, is not uselessly dribbled away. Of course, giving back a big chunk of it to taxpayers would take care of part of that problem.

What's your idea for spending that pile of cash? Send em’ in and we'll post the most intriguing.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The Guv's office is none to happy about that Rio Grande Sun piece we linked to Thursday and republished in the Carlsbad Current-Argus that faults Big Bill for his plane travels. Guv spokesman Gilbert Gallegos has the defense.

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ABQ's political odd couple are about to take it to a new level. Mayor Marty is set to hire GOP State Rep. Greg Payne as his new transit director, leaving Payne's far NE Heights seat to be filled with a replacement by the Dem controlled Bernalillo County Commission.

Reached late Wednesday, the high-profile Payne (blogger, radio host, newspaper columnist, political consultant and insurance salesman) deferred to the mayor, but did say the city's bus boss needs to bring more "efficiency" to the system and "better relationships with the blue collar workers" who run the shop.

"I'd like to see us do more with advertising on the buses as a means of making the system more self-supporting," offered Payne who is serving as head of the mayor's transition team on transit as Marty prepares for an unprecedented third, four year term starting December 1.

With Mayor Marty pushing to make light-rail a reality for the Big Duke City, Payne's plate will be full when he takes on his new gig which pays $90k plus a year. He currently works for Daniels Insurance, where his boss is Dem fund-raising heavy and UNM Regent Jamie Koch.

Dem Marty and R Payne have had their ups and downs over the years, but Payne, who served a four year term on the city council, was a key player in the mayor's recent re-elect.

Robert Gutierrez, union chief for over 300 bus and van drivers, told me Payne is "young, aggressive and smart" and said his experience as a councilor would be helpful to the department. Insiders say the current transit head has been given his walking papers.

But what about Payne's House seat which he was elected to in 04' replacing Joe Thompson and for which his performance earned him "Rookie of the Year" honors from the ABQ Chamber of Commerce? Payne said he would like to serve in the seat through next year's 30 day legislative session, but a final decision is up to the mayor. City employees are barred by law from serving in the Legislature.

So, will the county commission name a D as Payne's replacement, or go with an R who is most likely to keep the seat in the November 06' election? Stay tuned.

FOOTNOTE

Tim McGivern, Payne's old boss at the weekly Alibi, has been following the politicos on his new blog where he now opines regularly on personality and policy. Check him out.

DEATH RUMOR RATTLES ROUNDHOUSE
Alive!
What is it with Big Bill and the planes? The bad karma continued Wednesday as a rumor raced across Santa Fe and the nation's capital that our Guv's tenure on this planet had been ended in a Virginia plane crash, in which two persons did lose their lives, but fortunately (now, be nice R's) our Guv was not among them. (KOB-TV was all over this one.)

Big Bill's reassuring presence (his suit looked pretty good too) was soon on display at a news conference with Dem national chair Howard Dean and where afterwards--stop the presses--he told the ABQ Journal's Michael Coleman: "I am alive!"

(This being New Mexico, a long line of job-seekers formed at the door of Light Guv Diane Denish in the moments after the premature death rumor, but it immediately dissipated upon the rumor being quashed. The disappointed hopefuls retired to the Bull Ring to drown their sorrows. I also resumed doing the blog, after announcing that if Big Bill was dead there was no point of going on.)

SUN SHINES ON GUV

While the Guv was talking to the Journal's Coleman, it was the press he wasn't talking to that was giving him a very hard time. And it was about planes, but not just that controversial $5 million jet the state purchased for his use. The feisty Rio Grande Sun in Espanola has hit with a piece questioning the Guv's extensive use of three state planes saying he uses them for even short romps like Santa Fe to Los Alamos. (We bring it to you via Crosswinds Weekly).

The Sun, paving the way for the R Guv candidate next year, has asked for records showing why the Guv has been going where he's been going, including 13 trips to Ruidoso, some of them with horse racing-casino magnate and major friend of Bill, Paul Blanchard. It's tough stuff, with the Guv's staff curiously bunkered in and refusing to release some key info and pleading security considerations. This is another one where we need to stay tuned.

LUCKY AND THE ALLIGATOR

The following is from an Alligator-in-training, but it will be harmless if it turns out wrong and I will have a new reliable Gator if it turns out right.Here it is:

Santa Fe Dem State Rep. Luciano Lucky Varela will announce his candidacy for State Treasurer next week. The powerful lawmaker, in the Roundhouse since the 70's and chair of the Legislative Finance Committee, would be the first announced Dem candidate since Robert Vigil resigned. Vigil was indicted on more federal charges Wednesday.

An Alligator-in-training is not a lengthy stint. You are either right or you shall never be a Gator again. Let's see if this one makes the cut, or if Lucky's name is just being floated yet again for an open position.

Keep the insightful e-mail and news tips coming and, as always, thanks for tuning in.

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Montoya
The plea bargain deal of ex-Treasurer Michael Montoya, cut with the feds Tuesday, came as no surprise to blog readers. Our insiders predicted it weeks ago when they said his hiring of lawyer Jackie Robins pointed to a plea and they had it right. But what now? Former Treasurer Robert Vigil could also take the plea bargain route, but politicos who say they have talked to friends and family members of the indicted Vigil say that is not likely.

A Vigil ally told me Vigil, who resigned rather than face impeachment charges in the State House, has been urged to expand his legal team beyond attorney Sam Bregman. "He needs a lawyer or lawyers with extensive criminal trial experience. Bregman is not gong to be able to shoulder this alone."

For now Vigil is hanging tough. Bregman again reiterated that the Ribera, NM native looks forward to his "day in court." One insider said the question now is "how much Michael sings and if it will mean charges against others" in the biggest scandal in NM political history. Another question is what jail time, if any, will Montoya get.
Stay tuned.

NATIONAL RESULTS

Dems take the Guv chairs in Jersey and Virginia. California results here.

SHORT TAKES

A Santa Fe wall-leaner checks in recently regarding the health of State Rep. Don Whitaker (D-Lea), chairman of the important tax committee. "I am reporting that Don made his first appearance in several months. He attended the tax committee in Santa Fe and looks great, is sharp and on top of his game." Don's health took a dip earlier this year prompting speculation that he might resign his seat. He has not yet announced his election plans for 06.'...Friends of 88 year old ex-State GOP ABQ NE Heights Rep. John McMullan are mourning his passing. He served 18 years in the House...And why hadn't the Big Bill TV spot touting the tax rebates been corrected as of last night? The mistake in the spot--the size of the rebates--was reported Monday. What do they call that media team? "The Turtles"?....ABQ Metro Court's Janet Blair to return to City Hall as Mayoral spokeswoman? She did the job in Mayor Marty's first term. Insiders say Deborah James is set to retire and Blair may be moved back to the "press conference a day" chair.

NATALIE NAILS IT

Some love to bash it, that good ol' First Amendment that gives us the right to scribble and broadcast. Sure, the airwaves are sometimes polluted and the print can get sensational. But what's the alternative? You get the point. And so does teenager Natalie Klein of ABQ's La Cueva High. At this weekend's annual bash of the NM Foundation for Open Government, Natalie took first prize in the First Amendment essay contest. Give her a listen:

'Without the freedom to circulate ideas in word and writing, the people have lost their power to create their own government...the right to assemble peacefully gives the people a place where the simmering catalysts of free speech and press can begin to boil the waters of public life and prevent stagnated democracy."

You got it right, Natalie. And thanks for the reminder.

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If the ex-wives and husbands start talking, can anyone get elected? The question arises in the wake of the nasty campaign for New Jersey governor which ends today and where the ex-wife of U.S. Senator John Corzine told a newspaper the senator "let his family down" and had an affair that broke up their marriage. The quote was then used in paid ads by Corzine's GOP opponent, Doug Forrester, who was then accused on the rumor mill of having an extramarital affair. So, as Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico prepare for Campaign 06' should they prep by watching reruns of Divorce Court?

Actually, our state brushed up against the politics of the personal quite recently--in the ABQ mayoral campaign. The ex-wife of Mayor Marty Chavez, after flirting with the idea of running against her ex, gave an interview to KOAT-TV in which she said the mayor had let politics take precedence over his family. Unlike New Jersey, the quote was left on the table and not used by the mayor's foes in any paid media. But they easily could have and we would have had the same mess as Jersey.

It seems each cycle the politicos push the envelope a little more, even if it disgusts the voters and has nothing to do with the jobs they seek. Will it ever stop? It's tough to say. Voters say they can't stand this stuff, but the consultants say it works. And it does, in a limited way. It often drives turnout down, keeping those who don't like the negative at home, but catering to those who respond and who go to the polls.

New Jersey gives candidates everywhere fair warning. Those of us who think what goes on in a marriage or in the bedroom doesn't belong on the campaign trail or the TV screens may soon be outnumbered, if we aren't already. And we thought this was settled with Bill Clinton.

SEEKING A SENATOR

More on that GOP race for the right to take on NM Dem U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman next year. Former Bernalillo County State Senator and former Dem turned R, Tom Benavides, apparently did not raise any money in the recent federal filing period since he did not file a report, but insiders say he is still in the race along with David Pfeffer and Dr. Allen McCulloch and is planning to gather petition signatures.

Meanwhile, the Alligators were busy asking for specific contributions McCulloch received in totaling up his $141,000 campaign kitty. Here it is at the FEC. And hard to read too. Most of it came from the oil industry and medical profession in the Four Corners area.

Others wanted to know about ABQ R State Senator Joe Carraro and whether he is running for the GOP Senate nod. He's still on the fence, according to his last e-mail a couple of weeks ago.

And why are so many R's scrambling to take on Senator Jeff who is as close to a sure thing for re-election as you can get? Says one politico: "Joe, Senator Domenici's future is still uncertain. If he decides not to run in 2008 some of these candidates may want to be positioned for that race. Of course, Reps Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce might be in on that one too. And Pete is in no hurry to announce anything.

SUITING UP

We didn't make what kind of suits the Guv wears a campaign issue. He did. His TV spot says his suits might not fit, but "he fits New Mexico." So just what kind of tailor is it that Big Bill employs who can't make his suits fit? Or does he buy the ill-fitting garments off the rack at Dillards? Or, attention rival Prez candidates, does he buy foreign suits over there on London's Savile Row? Say it ain't so! So far, no response from the Guv's people on this "pressing" matter. But here's a tip for him: Two words, Guv: Hickey Freeman. Otherwise, the GQ worst-dressed list awaits. Now about those ties...

BOTCHED TV

And one more thing on that TV spot. Big Bill's high-priced out-of-state media mavens have a bunch of egg on their faces. For the kind of money they get, can't they get it right? Here's the AP's Barrey Massey reporting that the TV spot contains a factual error:

"Oops! Gov. Bill Richardson's debut TV ad for his re-election campaign made a mistake when it touted the governor's recent efforts to help New Mexicans with high energy costs. Flashed on the screen is the wrong amount for the minimum rebate going to New Mexicans. The ad shows in white letters: "Tax rebates for gas $50-$298." However, the minimum rebate is $64. The maximum rebate is correctly stated in the ad."

Do you think Big Bill can get a rebate from his media consultants? Good luck!

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He's raised over $141 thousand and is popping up on the campaign trail, but the GOP U.S. Senate candidacy of Farmington urologist Allen McCullloch has so far been an under the radar affair. So much so that Quinn McCord, state editor of the political bible--the National Journal's Hotline In D.C.--checked in late Friday asking us why McCulloch's fundraising wasn't mentioned in news dispatches that did report that GOP Santa Fe City Councilor David Pfeffer has raised $21,000 in his bid for the right to take on NM Dem Senator Jeff Bingaman. Beats me, but the news is out now. McCord reports that McCulloch met with national GOP officials in early October who called him an "impressive candidate."

Meanwhile, one of our blog contributors down south, Avelino Maestas of the Silver City Daily Press, let us know that the Doc was campaigning in his area last week. Being the political junkie that he is, Maestas even forwarded coverage of the visit by his competition.

The only mention until now of McCulloch's candidacy came on your blog in August (Hey Doc, send us a photo) but it's clear that he is a serious contender for the nomination and probably the frontrunner with his San Juan County base and the ability to so far outraise Pfeffer by seven to one. (Don't worry D's, Senator Jeff has $1.4 mil in cash already). If he does get the nod, he will likely join fellow M.D. James Damron on the ballot who is the R's favorite for Guv. Neither have any political experience, but that may be just what the doctor ordered in today's political climate.

GAY LEADER GOING

Meanwhile, a GOP group that breaks with conservative orthodoxy on at least one issue continues to thrive. The Log Cabin Republicans, a gay rights advocacy group, now boasts over 200 NM members according to outgoing chapter president and local founder Patrick Killen. He's passing the leadership baton to ABQ's Michael Hills, but before he does he passes some thoughts on to us.

"I'm proud of the work that I've been able to do on behalf of NM Republicans who support equality for every American, regardless of sexual orientation. The activism of our members has been credited in-part for the veto of anti-gay legislation by the Navajo Nation President.

"Going from being an aide to a number of prominent state Republicans to a voice in the fight for gay and lesbian equality in 2004 was challenging, but I felt it was the right thing to do. One day, I hope to see my Republican Party regard homosexuality as a "non-issue" and get back to unifying issues like restraining government spending."

Killen did stick his neck out just as the national R's were effectively making gay marriage a hot button issue that helped them keep the White House. Still, if polls have it right the 20 somethings like Killen will indeed making sexuality a "non-issue" in the years ahead. However, they have a way to go. There has only been one openly gay elected official in NM--Liz Stefanics who served a term in the state senate from northern NM.

BIG BILL TV REVIEW

Do you think that Big Bill TV spot is pretty corny? The one that says his suits don't fit "but he sure fits New Mexico?" Well, you are not alone. They are pretty corny, but for the general public they work just fine, said most of the politicians I asked. They come at a sensitive time for the Big Guy. That ABQ Journal poll showing him at 53% approval among registered voters--probably higher among likely voters--has to shake up his political staff. The TV spot uses two cowboys as narrators and comes just as those tax rebates are popping up in mailboxes.

There is problem with the spot, however. It credits the Guv with accelerating the income tax cuts he got passed in 2003. That was actually done in the recent special legislative session over his objection. But he did grudgingly sign it.

The spot is the earliest in gubernatorial re-election history, but ex-State Rep Bengie Regensberg of Mora has talked of a Dem primary challenge to the Guv, and when you plan on spending a record-setting $10 million to win another four years, you might want to get started early.

Send me your comments, news, corrections and criticisms to the e-mail link provided on this page and thanks for tuning in today.

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Any sitting governor would be pretty pleased to get an approval rating of 53% as Big Bill did in the ABQ Journal poll conducted Oct. 13-16, (MOE + or -4.9%) and released Wednesday. But this isn't any governor. This is perhaps the most powerful one in state history; one with international stature who dominates the news. This is a governor who would be President. So when a poll shows 53% and not 63%, the natives get restless and opinions pour forth like the Spring runoff in the mighty Rio Grande.

It’s never easy analyzing polls, as much art as science, and it was doubly difficult this time because of who was polled. "Registered," not "likely" voters, made up the survey of 400 who gave the Guv 53% approval, 24% disapproval and 23% who said they were undecided or had "mixed feelings."

My first take on the poll yesterday was that the Governor was "leaking oil.” And he is compared with the low 60’s approval ratings he was getting. Now, is he leaking oil in the sense that the wheels are about to come off? Not very likely. But he has run up against the reality of New Mexico. There are plenty of Republicans and conservative southern Democrats who will keep any Democratic Guv in check.

Chiming in from his Fourth Floor Roundhouse office, Big Bill Chief of Staff Dave Contarino opined as the late afternoon sun set on the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. “You can put Donald Duck on the ballot against a Dem governor here and he would get 39%," half-chuckled the Guv's right hand man.

Still, the 53%, compared to the 63% he scored among registered voters two years ago, got the Republican blood pumping in ABQ State Rep. Greg Payne. "He is vulnerable. Is he in danger of losing the election next year? Probably not. But if the R's could get their act together they could make the race much closer than expected. Payne added: “The person with the biggest smile on their face is Hilary Clinton," a probable opponent of Big Bill's if, as expected, he seeks the Dem Prez nod in 2008.

PAVLIDES-PAYNE FACE-OFF

Despite being a longtime Big Bill backer, veteran pollster Harry Pavlides said he agreed that the Governor has been leaking oil "but it is normal leakage for a governor in the third year of a four year term.”

“He can get his numbers back to the high 50's with the campaign he is going to run and by slowing down and not repeating the kind of mistake he did by getting that jet plane."

Pavlides’ educated guess on where the Guv stands with likely voters is 55% to 57%. "Joe, there is an unusually large number of undecided when you do a poll with just registered voters. Likely voters are more involved and more decided. Bill’s support will go up with them as will his disapproval rating." He explained.

But Payne was still spinning the other way. "The plane hurt but so has his focus on international and national issues as he positions for a White House run. This is a poor state. He needs to show more focus on issues here. Voters are starting to see him as disconnected from here and its hurting," claimed Payne as he set the table for the 06’ campaign.

Back on the Fourth Floor, Contarino tried another tack. "When people are asked if New Mexico is going in the right or wrong direction, they overwhelmingly say the right direction. That number is just as important as the approval rating,” he asserted.

Both Contarino and Payne disagreed with me that the Treasurer scandal may have had a role in the gubernatorial dip with Contarino maintaining there has been no dip because the poll make-up is not of likely voters. Besides, he spun, “the Governor showed strong leadership skills in handling the matter.“

MY TAKE

Big Bill is a victim of his initial popularity and his larger than life personality. If he doesn't perform above average, he is faulted. Republicans have an interest in keeping the expectations high; that he should, as Payne put it, “poll approval of at least 60% everytime." If he fails the higher hurdle, they can claim weakness. And If he fails to meet the higher expectations next year the R’s will use it to dampen his national ambitions.

Still, there is danger lurking in the poll. The novelty of a governor running for President can wear thin when the stats keep coming in showing the state in the cellar. He was elected with high hopes and if voters see him straying, they can be quick to pull him back in. It's a balancing act that will keep Big Bill and his political advisers plenty occupied over the next year.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

Word comes to us that Vanessa Alarid, the executive director of the NM Democratic Party will soon be leaving her post to return to school. Alarid has been at the center of a controversy that has swirled around state Party Chair John Wertheim this week. The New Mexican's Steve Terrell explores the Alarid angle more .....And from ABQ's City Hall comes word that Chief Administrative Officer James B. Lewis will soon retire. Lewis was mentioned a possible Treasurer replacement for federally-indicted Robert Vigil, but he did not make the finalist list...Republican Barry Bitzer has been named chief of staff for ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez. The job has been vacant since Chavez fundraiser Terri Baird left the post.

You know it's true. You write the blog. Send me your news tips and comments and keep the politics flowing.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Passions ran high Tuesday as Dems reacted to news reported here that former NM Transportation Secretary Judy Espinosa might, just might, consider challenging NM Dem Party Chair John Wertheim for his title. Never mind that Espinosa was only toying with the idea. It was enough to unlock the floodgates of emotion and the e-mail, some of it hot enough to scorch my eyebrows. But hey, that's why we're here, to bring you, without partisanship, the real workings of NM politics. It was a GOP intraparty fight that launched yer little ol' blog over two years ago. My ass was kicked red, but we got it right then and, dang it, we're going to get it right now. Not that this situation is similar, not by a long shot

First, about that Gang of 16, those who signed the now famous (or infamous) letter calling into question Wertheim's leadership. Several of them, led by Babara Wold, were hitting the ceiling saying that it was implied here that they were calling for the chair's removal. They emphatically said they were not. "We're not against or for Judy for Chair. It just never came up and our efforts weren't aimed at making it so. Who knows if there will be a challenge or not," clarified Barbara, after also labeling the blog "rambling and ill-informed." Hey, I've been called worse, but I feel sorry for the blog.

Also, not all the criticisms leveled against Wertheim--the court challenge he brought against Prez contender Ralph Nader and his support of tax cuts--were in the letter, but they are concerns expressed by other Dems.

WHIPPING ON WERTHEIM

Others continued whipping Wertheim saying they think a coup attempt is worthwhile. So while the Gang of 16 can speak for itself, remember there were over 100 central committee members who voted against John in April and thousands of "progressives" across the state who also have opinions.

Surely, an attempt to unseat Wertheim is highly unlikely. A close friend of Judy wanted to make clear that she is not anywhere close to launching such an effort.

"She has kicked the idea around and is exploring the possibility. She has heard the rumors and grumbling from dissatisfied members of the state central committee and county chairs, which made her contemplate the idea in the first place. But, I would not consider her quite as "serious" as your blog makes out. Exploring the option is more like it," penned the prominent Lady D who has seen her share of intraparty wars.

Speaking of which, a challenge, if it developed, would not be a rarity, as we were reminded from a party Alligator of long standing who also analyzed any prospective Movida against Wertheim:

"There are always rumblings in the party about removing the chair, be it Earl Potter, Ray Sena, Mary Gail Gwaltney or Diane Denish.

"We shouldn’t exaggerate the rumblings of progressives out of Santa Fe, Las Cruces, and ABQ. John’s strength is with the rural chairs and the Hispanic ward chairs in ABQ and Santa Fe. Also, party leaders such aw Madrid, Richardson, Denish and Udall, all want John in there. Throwing the party over to Judy would be a big mistake. She couldn’t even organize a petition drive to get herself on the ballot in the ABQ Mayor’s race," analyzed our insider.

WHAT IT MEANS

Naturally, Dem heavies running for election next year do not want anything to change. Turmoil over party leadership makes for controversy, and the heavies can probably keep any seeds of rebellion from sprouting. But the fervor over the direction of the Dem party won't be stilled.

Tax cuts for the well-off are controversial among many party members. So is The tepid critique, or lack thereof, of the Iraq war. And, don't forget, New Mexico is now a Red state after the narrow 04' Bush victory. These are matters of import that can only be suppressed for so long.

Meanwhile, other Dem insiders were checking in with the news that NAtional Dem Chairman Howard Dean, who embodies the fissures present in the national D's, will not make it to the November Dem Central Committee meeting after all. Chair Wertheim was saying Tuesday the trip was on and would enrich party coffers. D.C. Dems were saying travel arrangements could not be made.

Hmmm. Dean not coming while some Dems make their unhappiness with the party chair known? OK. Let the conspiracy theories begin!

BIG BILL: LEAKING OIL

The ABQ Journal poll out today has Big Bill leaking oil, garnering a 53% approval rating, pretty low for him. I will seek comments and analysis for you. My first impression is that the Treasurer Vigil scandal is at least partially to blame for the dip. Stay tuned.


Thanks to all my e-mailers for their thoughts, criticisms and news. If you have some, there's a link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Dem Chair Wertheim
While you were out trick or treating last night and enjoying that last kernel of corn candy, politicos who stir their brews on the left wing of the NM Democratic Party were conjuring up some tricks of their own. For party chairman John Wertheim, the central target of this coven, Halloween 2005 was a scary night indeed.

Over the weekend 16 of the 350 members of the Dem Central Committee sent out their formal letter of complaint about Wertheim to the blogs, the papers and fellow committee members. But they saved their biggest trick for the spookiest night of the year, circulating word that Judy Espinosa, former NM Transportation Secretary and recent candidate for ABQ Mayor, just might work up a challenge to take over John's job.

What seems like an out-of-the blue move has been months in the making with Wertheim being blasted for a wide array of alleged sins including: not putting out an understandable budget, wasting party money by unsuccessfully challenging independent Prez candidate Ralph Nader's petitions to get on the NM ballot; by hiring a consulting firm for 30 grand that did not perform; and by not using his stroke to raise enough money for the party. All this on the heels of several staff dismissals at party headquarters that has the Alligators marching in Wertheim's direction at mach speed.

In light of all this, I canceled my Halloween plans which consisted of donning a Big Bill mask and scaring the hell out of the neighbors' kids by telling them I was running for President. Instead, I dialed up Chairman Wertheim who was on a final fitting of his scary Bush mask while his wife and Big Bill staffer, Bianca, was putting the finishing touches on her Heather Wilson get-up. They were headed out the door to pick up Robert Vigil and Sam Bregman when the phone rang and...

THE INTERVIEW
Judy Espinosa
Despite the flurry of charges, Wertheim was in a conciliatory mood saying the complaints did not pose a threat to either him or the party; that he is working to provide more "transparency" in party budgets; that the consulting firm the lefties are complaining about actually did a good job and that under his stewardship the Dems have raised more money than ever.

But that wasn't stopping the insiders from telling me that Espinosa is serious about a challenge; that she is seeking to meet with Big Bill and Light Guv Denish to outline her concerns and perhaps seek support for a long-shot chairmanship of her own.

"Judy is serious. We are unhappy with the direction of the party and think she could put it on track," informed one of her acolytes. Any challenge would wait until next year, reported another Alligator pushing a Judy move. Appropriately, Judy was staying as invisible as a ghost.

But ousting Wertheim would be easier said than done. He won a two year term in April with 60% of the central committee votes. It would take a special meting and, he says, a two-thirds vote to remove him. But he is anything but tone deaf and said he has been talking with the disgruntled letter signers to address concerns that he sees as valid.

"Most of this is insider stuff. But I do take seriously the complaint about the Nader challenge. That was a judgment call but I stand by it. Even though we lost in court, we kept his vote totals down," explained John who also said the challenge cost in the vicinity of 50 grand.

THE REAL ISSUE

Wertheim agreed that the larger issue is the fissure in the party over such issues as tax cuts. "I supported the Governor's tax cuts and I took heat for it as he did. Some Democrats think I am too conservative. But this is nothing like the Republican infighting that has cost them dearly. This is more like a family discussion."

Wertheim said the Dems are positioned well for 2006, with the GOP on the ropes nationally and not doing very well recruiting candidates locally. He also said his relationship with the governor "is good."

"We are working hard to involve everyone in the party. Perhaps I have been a bit isolated in that I have been in politics a long time. Sometimes you lose sight of what it looks like from the outside," observed the chairman in his cellphone mea culpa. But, he noted, his detractors have surfaced after several party staffers lost their jobs.

MY BOTTOM LINES

The next meeting of the Central Committee is in Santa Fe November 19th and national Dem Chair Howard Dean, leader of the liberals and patron saint of the Wertheim complainers, is scheduled to attend. Wertheim is looking forward to having Dean there so he can fill the party coffers with fundraising cash and answer those who claim Dem cash raising has been anemic.

As for where the dough goes, Wertheim, a NM native and Yale graduate who has made two runs for the U.S. House, said campaign finance laws have become 'exceptionally complex,' but much of the information is available for viewing on the Federal Election Commission Web site and at the Secretary of State's office.

This Democratic Party brush fire may have been ignited by arcane rules and obscure issues, but it served to unmask the deeper issues facing the D's on All Hallows Eve: Whether the Dems need to push a bolder, more distinguished message as the campaign tricks of 06' get underway.

Remember to E-mail me your news and comments so we can keep the politics coming. Back tomorrow. Same time, same station.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
Not for reproduction without permission of the author