New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

Come on politicos. For goodness sake, it's the Fourth of July holiday! But you don't care, do you? You're going to keep us trapped in tattered blogging pajamas until the last minute, aren't you? What did we do to deserve it? Well, never mind. I'm sure your list is hefty with slights, real or perceived. The politicos win this time, but if they do this on Labor Day weekend, the gloves are coming off, or at least the pajamas. Now let's go to the videotape.

BIG BILL ATTACKS

Or in the case of Big Bill, the audio tape. That's right, he is already on the attack against GOP challenger John Dendahl, coming with the first paid negative media of Campaign 06', a 60 second radio hit airing on conservative talk radio giant 770 KKOB-AM.

The ad claims Dendahl forced the dumping of J.R. Damron and got himself named the replacement by the GOP Central Committee. "Forget about the voters, forget about elections," the ad says.

Big Bill's spot also likens the appointed Dendahl candidacy to the politics of a "Third World" country and says he has "made false attacks against both Democrats and Republicans alike." Guv campaign chair Contarino piled on separately, asserting that the Denahl candidacy was born in a "backroom deal."

"This time don't let him get away with it," instructs the dire-toned announcer.

The ad is airing on conservative radio, perhaps an effort to prevent Dendahl from unifying the Republican base, which Dendahl has said is fractured because of past intraparty warfare. (I did not have details at blog press time on where else, if anywhere, the ad was running.)

The GOP responded to the attack saying it reveals "Richardson is more vulnerable and afraid than we expected. Going negative early in a campaign is never a sign of confidence." No, but it is a sign that the Guv has $6 million in the bank and John D. has little, if any.

KELLY'S KICK-OFF

Watching all this with interest is Kelly Ward, Dendahl's new campaign manager, who had the same role in 1994 when Gary Johnson was the R nominee and went on to win. Ward's job is much tougher this time, with Dendahl the decided underdog. (That's underdog, John. Not pitbull.)

Insider R's say Ward is a competent "mechanic" who will give a professional sheen to the Dendahl organization. Ward was rewarded for his work for Gary, going on to head the NM Regulation & Licensing Department. He has been involved with Dendahl in the conservative think-tank, the Rio Grande Foundation.

Ward is probably chomping at the bit to get in the game now that Big Bill has launched his first negative volley, but the campaign will have to raise funds before it gets to return fire.

MANNY ARAGON NEWS

Late Wednesday word came that NM Highlands University Prez and former state senate powerhouse Manny Aragon has been placed on administrative leave. An Alligtor comment put it this way:

"Manny Aragon has been put on administrative leave. It's been in the works for weeks but the word finally came down. Interesting to see how all this will play out, with Governor Richardson appointing him, we shall see how things unfold." emailed the Gator.

Well, Big Bill did not formally appoint Manny. That was done by the school's regents, but the point is that it was done with the tacit approval of the Guv. Aragon has been mentioned in connection with an ongoing federal investigation of the construction of Bernalillo county courthouses. Does this have anything to do with that? There have been problems at the Las Vegas campus for Aragon, but I have to move on to other stuff or I will never escape....

AND MORE HOT STUFF
Blog Lunch Bunch
I was relishing my lunch Wednesday at the fabled ABQ Barelas Coffee House with South Valley political firebrand and unsuccessful Dem Public Regulation Commission candidate Andrew Leo Lopez because he had to buy. You see, the gringo from Pennsylvania actually outguessed the New Mexico native on a race or two in the June primary. But I barely had time to stick the needle in Lopez and throw a moist chicarrone in his lap when he introduced surprise guest, Bernalillo County Clerk Mary Herrera.

Indulging in a bowl of red chile as bright as Santa's suit, Mary sent me into blogging overtime as she relayed that she will not, repeat, will not, be using only optical scanned all-paper ballots for the November election.

"We need to tread carefully. The law does not require that every vote be cast with a paper ballot until after this election. I will have at least one paper ballot machine at each precinct, but I will also continue to use the electronic (Shouptronic) machines. It's the prudent thing to do because of the short time we have to train people in the new system and also because of continuing issues with the paper ballot vendor." Informed clerk Mary.

She may take some more heat from fellow Dems who want that all-paper ballot system to ensure that each vote is accompanied by a "verifiable paper trail." It was mandated by the Legislature and pushed by Big Bill, but Herrera, initially opposed to all-paper, but now in favor, appears to have the law on her side and will phase in the system. Stay tuned for more on this one.

MARY VS. VICKIE

Herrera, of course, is also the Dem nominee for Secretary of State, and she had a message for Republican nominee Vickie Perea. "I am taking nothing for granted. I have a deep respect for Vickie and I am going to campaign nonstop," relayed the perky Albuquerque native who handily beat three other contenders in the June D primary.

There has been no GOP secretary of state since the 20's, and Herrera is the odds-on favorite to keep it that way. But Perea is a pro who we will soon chat up and bring to you her campaign plans. But we aren't going to do it on the eve of a holiday. We want outta here to celebrate our country's birthday, not to mention playing sloth in the sun and setting new standards for American hedonism.

So on that note, let me wish you and yours a fine Fourth. We will be mainly "dark" next week, but back after that with more from the wonderful world of New Mexico politics. It ought to be fun, but when isn't it?

Hasta la Vista New Mexico!

c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Patricia Madrid
No one said it was going to be easy for Patricia Madrid. And it isn't. The campaign for the ABQ congressional seat will have many ups and down in the weeks ahead, and right now it appears to be a down time for Dem hopeful Madrid as she tries to unseat semi-entrenched GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson.

The first to ring the bell is the Washington Post's politics blog, "The Fix," which has taken Madrid down a notch on its list of U.S. House seats most likely to be taken over by a challenger. Madrid is still high up the list, but The Fix, in explaining its downgrade, cited "a bit less enthusiasm" for her candidacy among Democrats.

It's easy to see why. Dems have been intent on pounding the ethics hammer against Heather, charging that she is part of a "culture of corruption" in D.C., but Attorney General Madrid has been mired in allegations from the R's on her own role in going after crooks.

She recently came with state charges against several key players in the state Treasurer scandal, but the critics harped that she is just fouling up the federal investigation.

Out in California, Dems tried to take over the seat of disgraced GOP Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham by using the ethics wedge, but they got plowed under.

All this had us headed to the pond where the Alligators hang out.

THE GATOR SQUAD

"Madrid and the Dems appear to be getting pinned down on the ethics issue. It may be time to reassess," offered one Gator with campaign management experience.

Others I spoke with say Wilson's public reputation is not one of corruption and the issue may actually play best against Madrid because of the myriad of local scandals.

"Patsy needs to invade Wilson's territory. She needs to go after moderate Republican and Dem votes by taking on the out-of-control federal budget and the spending record of the Congress. She needs to get the game on Heather's territory and off of her own alleged shortcomings in prosecuting NM corruption," advised another Gator.

Madrid still has much going for her; a disgruntled electorate, help from the Big Bill machine, her own considerable talents as an aggressive campaigner and plenty of time. But the ethics swamp has given her a June swoon. It looks and smells like a loser. Time to head for higher ground?

HILLARY AND PATSY

Heather was glad to get President Bush in and out of town recently, raking in $375,000 in cash, but not having to be saddled with the currently unpopular Prez closer to Election Day. And it appears Madrid shares Heather's concerns over her highest profile supporter too.

She had a fundraiser last week in New York City featuring political superstar Hillary Clinton, but the campaign provided no photos of the gathering, or even a news release on what was said or how much was raised. It's pretty hard to hide a Bush or Clinton, but our two congressional hopefuls came as close as possible.

BOTTOM LINES

You'll want to keep an eye on independent candidate Rob Leibman who is also seeking the ABQ congressional seat and describes himself as "moderately liberal." If he gets on the ballot, it could have the effect of siphoning some Dem votes from Madrid, kind of like a Green Party contender. Dems are sure to challenge his petition signatures. As for the R's, could they have had anything to do with this? They wouldn't do that, would they?

Back with one more take before the holiday. Stop by if you can. It ought to be fun.

c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Mickey Barnett
Mickey Barnett is on his way to being Governor. No, not that Governor. But now that I've got your attention...Barnett, one of the R's who played a prominent role in bringing to life the GOP Guv candidacy of John Dendahl, is about to get his own taste of being a Governor. Despite a push by his foes to thwart him, Barnett is expected to win approval tomorrow from the U.S. Senate Homeland Security Committee to become a Governor of the U.S. Postal Service and later, the full Senate. We broke the story of his nomination back in March.

Barnett is a leader of a breakaway GOP faction which in recent years has primaried fellow R's. Former ABQ State Rep. Ron Godbey escaped being their victim, but in 04' Roswell's Earlene Roberts lost her House seat to the Barnett-backed Keith Gardner. The faction continues to exist and includes Roswell State Rep. Dan Foley and Roswell State Sen. "Lightning Rod" Adair. John Dendahl is also a member of the breakaways who ousted Ramsay Gorham as state GOP chair in 04'.

Godbey checked in from Texas saying he would like to see one of the committee's senators put "a hold" on the Barnett nomination because Godbey is being told that the lawyer-lobbyist is claiming the support of Governor Richardson. "I would like to know whether that is true or not," said Godbey who went to war with the breakaways over their drug legalization proposals.

BARNETT BACKGROUNDER
Ex-Rep. Roberts
Barnett has successfully lobbied Big Bill and Legislature on behalf of the payday loan industry which thwarted tough legislation this past session. Godbey put the needle in and wondered whether the Guv would now step forward and ask a senator to slow down Mickey's nomination in retaliation for Barnett's involvement in the Guv race.

But that may be unlikely. Dem U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman, according to those in the know, has no plans to try to throw up a roadblock over Barnett.

Ex-Rep. Roberts wrote the committee chair to oppose Barnett. In a statement from Roswell she said, "He is a leader of a faction that is taking good government away from the people of NM." Roberts asserts that Barnett and company only support Republicans who support the positions of Barnett's lobbying clients. Barnett has previously said that his opposition to fellow R's is based on how conservative they are, not his checkbook. He has been an ardent backer of Indian gaming and drug legalization efforts.

ETHICS HOTHOUSE
Rep. Foley
Meanwhile, a group that Barnett and his allies have close ties to, Americans for Taxpayer Reform,(ATR), is under the ethics microscope in D.C. This dispatch from the AP:

"Blunt e-mails that connect money and access in Washington show that prominent Republican activist Grover Norquist facilitated some administration contacts for Jack Abramoff's clients while the lobbyist simultaneously solicited those clients for large donations to Norquist's tax-exempt group. Those who were solicited or landed administration introductions included foreign figures and American Indian tribes." Here's more from the Washington Post.

Norquist and ATR last year named Foley "Taxpayer Protection Caucus Chair" in the NM House and Roswell State Sen. Adair chair of the Caucus in the Senate.

ATR provided financial support to Adair-favored GOP State Rep. candidate Nora Espinosa in her Roswell June primary battle with Mike Kakuska, according to the Kakuska campaign. Espinosa won.

To join the caucus, legislators must sign and keep the "Taxpayer Protection Pledge," which is a written commitment to their constituents to oppose and vote against any and all efforts to increase taxes. Critics have dubbed it a straitjacket on government, and some R's have condemned it or backed off from the pledge.

DIANE AND DOMENICI

And how about Light Guv Diane Denish taking on Senator Domenici? That question from an Alligator reacting to our Monday blog on he rift between Pete and Big Bill over Pete's involvement in the Guv race, with Bill warning that he is preparing to field a candidate in 08' against Domenici as pay back.

"Joe, if you want to talk about a candidate, you should talk about Diane. She has run and won statewide, has great name ID, can certainly raise the money, and you have the revenge factor, since Pete beat Diane's father Jack by about 6,000 votes when he first ran for the Senate in 1972."

Boy, you Alligators have long memories, as well as long snouts.

STRATTON IN MOTION

And just when I thought I could wrap this one up in comes this e-mail from the national capital:

"I wanted to drop you a line to give you news that former NM attorney general Hal Stratton has resigned his position in the Bush Administration as Chairman of the Consumer Product Safety Commission. He plans to stay in the DC area and practice private law. The resignation is effective July 15th."

Thanks for that one. Stratton was our state's last GOP AG, winning the seat in the 86' election.

Gosh, will it slow down enough to join all of you on a Fourth of July break? Here's hoping so. Back at ya' manana.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Big Bill
The stakes just got higher. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, reportedly incensed over GOP Senator Pete Domenici's involvement in recruiting firebrand and former NM GOP Chair John Dendahl as the party's gubernatorial nominee, is warning that he is preparing to field an 08' candidate to take on Domenici, New Mexico's longest-ever serving U.S. senator.

As is customary in these matters, the chief executive did not directly address the issue, but choreographed his intent to a highly-placed operative who quotes the Governor directly as saying, "I've never played around in Pete's races, but now that he has gotten involved in mine, I am ready to field a candidate against him."

Richardson will shy away from any direct hit on Pete but, at the least, he seems determined to send a message, relayed by a reliable source, directly to the senator's camp.

BIRTHING DENDAHL

The Domenici involvement in the Dendahl bid, along with that of the senator's highly-skilled and longtime chief political operative Steve Bell, has Richardson ready to do what he believes Pete has done; break the tenuous public truce the two political giants have had and back a contender against the senator who recently announced he will be seeking a seventh, six year term in 2008.

The extent of the Domenici-Bell role in birthing the Dendahl candidacy following the withdrawal of J.R. Damron has been the subject of intense speculation, beginning on this blog when top sources in NM and Washington, D.C. were quoted as saying the Dendahl move was spearheaded by Bell with Domenici's consent. Then Dendahl himself volunteered news to the Santa Fe New Mexican that confirmed those sources' reports, saying that Bell had indeed played a prominent role and that former NM GOP National Committeeman Mickey Barnett, a longtime Dendahl backer who has been nominated by Domenici for a position on the board of U.S. postal governors, was also a key player.

After those reports, operative Bell phoned the ABQ Journal to assert that Domenici's role was just "peripheral." But Richardson, according to his operative, isn't buying; that he understands it is natural for the state's senior GOP senator to be consulted in party affairs, but not to actually foster a candidacy devised with the intent of taking him out of the Prez battle which is what he believes has occurred.

"He does believe that Damron was pushed out because they (Domenici-Bell) were unhappy that he was not attacking him enough. He sees the Dendahl bid as personal and damaging to his relationship with Domenici." The operative informed.

Richardson sympathizers say both sides knew going in that Big Bill was heavily favored for re-election, and that the Dendahl candidacy appears to to be an act of spite. Domenici supporters, maintaining that Domenici-Bell did not directly orchestrate the Dendahl bid, insist the Guv is being naive if he did not expect a rigorous re-elect.

BACK TO THE FUTURE
Sen. Domenici
If Domenici-Bell did more than just encourage the Dendahl bid against Richardson it would be unusual, but not unprecedented. In 1984, when Big Bill was seeking his second term as a congressman from northern New Mexico, I served as press secretary to his GOP challenger, former Domenici chief of staff Lou Gallegos, who Domenici recruited to run against Richardson. Bell, as he is today, was then Pete's chief of staff and played a prominent role in the Gallegos effort, but Richardson won big in the heavily Democratic area. (I still do PR work, but have no political clients and have had none for several years.)

But now the stakes are higher, as big as they get, in fact, as Richardson, now 58, weighs an 08' bid for the Dem Prez or Veep nomination. If Guv longshot Dendahl succeeds in "muddying him up" it could derail those political plans and any others he may have.

It was uncertain until this year whether the senator, who will be 76 in 2008, would seek to extend his remarkable political run, but his popularity and performance remain solid. However, a serious challenge is not something he probably contemplated when deciding to go for another trip back to Capitol Hill. Richardson's push-back, if it develops, could turn a sleeper race into a nightmare.

The Governor could be bluffing, of course, but he has repeatedly backed candidates for an array of New Mexico offices since assuming power in 2003. He also has the proven ability to raise millions of dollars. That track record makes any threat, real or perceived, a significant development in New Mexican political affairs that takes the matter beyond "insider baseball" and is fraught with significant political and policy implications for the state.

WHO WOULD DARE DOMENICI?
Zamora & Guv
Our highly-placed source did not query the irritated Governor on just who he would field against Domenici who years ago was dubbed "Saint Pete" by the ABQ Tribune's Kate Nelson for his penchant for winning landslide election victories and for the respect he commands in the state and nation. But the news started the speculative juices flowing with Santa Fe attorney and recent Dem attorney general candidate Geno Zamora being mentioned as a natural, if not a probable candidate.

The young and talented Zamora was handily defeated by veteran Gary King, but he walked away relatively unscathed. His candidacy was widely seen as backed by the Governor, who he served as chief legal counsel. He also matches the profile of the last serious Democratic opponent Domenici faced, then-former attorney general and later New Mexico Governor Toney Anaya who held Pete to 53% of the vote in 1978.

MY BOTTOM LINES

Dendahl conducted his first live, in-depth TV interview with KRQE-TV's Erika Ruiz on Friday. You can see it here...Throughout his political career Dendahl has proven himself a lightning rod for controversy. When his candidacy was approved by the GOP State Central Committee everyone knew the nature of the game had changed, but before this is over forces that have nothing to do with Dendahl and everything to do with how New Mexico is served both locally and nationally could be unleashed.

If there is brinkmanship going on here, we are on the brink and waiting for someone to blink. If not, the Dendahl candidacy could be just the warm-up act for a Western shoot-out featuring the two preeminent power players of their times.

A double sign off for this biggie: "Don't say we didn't tell you," and, "Stay tuned."

BROADCASTING TODAY'S BLOG

Today's blog is also available in audio form by clicking on the icon. Radio stations in NM and nationally are welcome to air a portion or all of the content. Just credit www.joemonahan.com.

Have political news, gossip, comments? Send them our way via the e-mail link at the top of the page. More from New Mexico's top, non-partisan political blog comes your way tomorrow. Hope you can join us.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

"That Boy"
I feel like a pig at a buffet, and I blame it on John Dendahl. He is already overfeeding us. Being the political junkies we are we can't get up from the table. Well, this was a special week and we will eventually turn to other affairs of La Politica, but let's indulge ourselves one more trip to the groaning table set so temptingly by the new GOP Guv candidate and finish the week with a flourish.

On Monday, the newly christened Guv nominee hit with his first zinger of the work week, taking to the talk radio airwaves and slamming NM Democratic Party Chairman John Wertheim as "that boy." The outspoken ex-GOP party chair had been asked to react to Wertheim's charges that he was "out of the mainstream" and an advocate for drug legalization. Dendahl was not taking the bait and told ABQ's KAGM-106.3 FM he doesn't have to answer charges from "that boy." And he didn't.

Later, "That Boy," the 38 year old Wertheim, called the 67 year old Dendahl's statement "hilarious" and demanded that Dendahl come up "with one positive idea."

Wertheim and Dendahl both grew up in Santa Fe and their families are acquainted, but this campaign is going to put their neighborliness to the test, along with a bunch of other character traits.

And the talk feast continued over at 770 KKOB-AM radio as GOP Chair Allen Weh told listeners they can expect "a more mature Dendahl," leaving the audience to wonder if Dendahl, one of the state's foremost slash and burn artists, can really rein himself in. (If he does, what the heck will we write about?)

OLD WARHORSES WEIGH IN
Cargo
From Washington, NM Senator Pete Domenici pronounced Dendahl, "a breath of fresh air" who will unite Republicans. Fresh air? One supposes that if you are are breathing that polluted Potomac stuff, fresh is a relative term.

It wasn't so fresh to Dendahl's longtime rival, 76 year old former GOP NM Guv Dave Cargo, (1967-70) who immediately broke ranks and pronounced Dendahl the "most divisive" candidate the party could have chosen. Then he followed up with this blog missile:

"Joe, I am forming a small group. It's called 'Republicans for John Dendahl.' I don't think it will grow very much," quipped Dave, one of the few who can hold his own with John in the quotable quotes department.

And the e-mail brought this early reaction for Big Bill. "Dendahl is going to make Richardson spend so much time in this state, he'll have to get a New Mexico drivers license." And maybe even obey the speeding laws?

ABANDON SHIPLEY?

Wednesday the Dendahl arrows were aimed at the Fourth Floor and gubernatorial press aide Pahl Shipley who blasted Dendahl Saturday upon learning of his appointment to replace J.R. Damron by the NM GOP Central Committee. In return, Dendahl dashed off a letter to Big Bill inquiring about the "conduct of state employees" and demanding that their activities be confined to "bona fide" state business.

He may score on that one as it is now common practice for government types to move over to the campaign once the battle begins. Big Bill chief of staff Dave Contarino announced earlier this year that he would remain chief, but also serve as the Guv's campaign chair, a decision that lasted all of a day. Expect something similar for Shipley soon. If not, you may see him wandering around the capitol with a muzzle.

COME ON MEDIA, LET'S RUMBLE

Media matters were also in the sights of the state GOP Wednesday as it delivered a tongue-lashing to New Mexico media outlets accusing them of "bias" and "name-calling" in their coverage of the Dendahl bid. Strangely, the party attacked the ABQ Journal which the Dems have complained is doing a story a week on how Big Bill's campaign contributions may be influencing public policy.

The GOP objected to the Journal calling John "a pit bull" (we thought he would be honored) and wondered if the paper would ever call John Wertheim a "liberal pit bull."

Wertheim, you are nothing but a liberal pit bull. There, somebody said it. Now stop the presses.

They also scored KOB-TV for a "blatantly loaded" description of the Dendahl candidacy and said the ABQ Tribune was an "echo chamber" for the Democratic Party.

Your beloved blog (thank you very much) also made the honor roll and was dubbed "Richardson's Blog." (Hey, Bill where's my check and my big state job??) We also took a lashing for describing Big Bad John as a "sacrificial wolf."

We differ with the description of us, of course, and see ourselves as the piano player in the whorehouse. We don't care about your politics, we just aim to keep the joint jumping.

Well, blasting the media and the blogs is not going to hurt in getting aboard the Dendahl bandwagon all those R's so upset with him after years of intra-party strife. There's nothing like a common enemy to bring the pack together.

In a final thought, Jonah Cohen, the PR flack for the party, complained that all the media he scorched are full of "double standards" and "sanctimony."

Jonah, you should see what we're like when we don't get fed.

MY BOTTOM LINES

By weeks end the ink-stained wretches, the TV talking heads, the radio gabbers and the bloggers were wondering if they should break with tradition and form a “Committee to Keep the Campaign Going." In the event that Dendahl sags in the polls we would each be required to donate a thousand bucks to keep him afloat. After the first week the idea is spreading like wildfire.

Thanks for tuning in. See ya' later Gators.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Add another name to the list of political midwives who helped give birth to the GOP Governor candidacy of ex-party chair John Dendahl. It turns out that lawyer-lobbyist and former GOP National Committeeman Mickey Barnett played a key role in getting J.R. Damron out and Dendahl in. Also, our Monday blog quoting top political sources saying NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici and his chief political operative Steve Bell were at the bedside as the Dendahl bid was born has now been backed up with on the record confirmation.

The surfacing of Barnett came from the Santa Fe New Mexican and veteran political reporter Steve Terrell who also had Dendahl confirming that Domenici and Bell were in communication with him, as well as party chair Allen Weh and Barnett in the critical hours leading to the first appointed major party nominee for Governor in state history.

Chairman Weh, commenting on any Domenici-Bell involvement, issued a statement Tuesday saying your blogger "would make a good novelist," but as you will read in the money paragraphs from Terrell this is no "Da Vinci Code" we've been reporting, but the "Domenici Code." Here we go...

DATELINE: SANTA FE

From the New Mexican

"On Wednesday morning, Dendahl called (Damron) to talk about the possibility of Damron stepping aside for a more aggressive candidate to take on Richardson.

That conversation resulted in an Albuquerque meeting that afternoon. Present were Damron and his wife, Barbara Damron, Dendahl, state Republican chairman Allen Weh, party executive director Marta Kramer and former Republican National Committeeman Mickey Barnett, a longtime Dendahl ally.

..Dendahl on Monday said he had been hearing talk among Republicans in recent weeks about the possibility of Damron withdrawing. He said Barnett had called him recently saying there was a "groundswell of support" to field a new candidate--someone like Dendahl.

Last Tuesday, Dendahl said, he got a call from U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici's chief of staff, Steve Bell, who said Barnett and Domenici had discussed replacing Damron with Dendahl. Bell told Dendahl that Domenici liked the idea.

President Bush earlier this year nominated Barnett to be a governor of the U.S. Postal Service. Domenici is sponsoring Barnett in the Senate, which must approve the nomination.

Like Dendahl, Barnett has made enemies inside the GOP. He was defeated in 2004 for re-election to his National Committee post by state Rep. George Buffett. Barnett is a lawyer and former state senator who in recent years has worked as a lobbyist. He angered some Republicans when he lobbied for drug-law reforms pushed by former Gov. Gary Johnson." So reported the New Mexican.

The paper also quoted your blogger as saying "Dendahl is not going to win." Let me revise that to "he is not likely to win," but every candidate has a chance at victory.

THE POSTSCRIPT

Did Domenici-Bell initiate the push to replace Damron and use Barnett as their go-between? My top sources say yes and they supplied their motives for the move on Monday's blog. The newspaper report points firmly in that direction. You decide.

Let's be clear to the political community of New Mexico and Washington, D.C.; major events rarely, if ever, happen in the NM Republican Party without the involvement and/or consent of the titular head of that organization--Senator Domenici. That's not a narrative for a "novel." That's the cold, hard facts. If you don't believe it, check with my fellow "novelist" Steve Terrell.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In this over 200 year old game for the right to rule, the public sets the rules and they say all the chips should be on the table. Governors, wanna-be Governors, U.S. Senators and party operatives are not exempt. Sure, they can try to conceal the chips, but in the end this high-stakes poker game for power and control of the United States and New Mexican governments is a game that will inevitably be played under the bright stage lights of La Politica. May it ever be so...And ABQ Tribune reporter Casey Phillips, fresh off the bus from Tennessee, could not have picked a better time to start covering NM politics. We helped out with Phillips' first piece on the 06' Guv race.

Have news? Comments? Criticisms? Drop me an e-mail from the link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Sen. Domenici
How did New Mexico come to have its first appointed major party nominee for the office of Governor in modern history? What was the role of New Mexico's most senior Republican, Senator Pete Domenici? And what were the real motivations behind the move to dump J.R. Damron and replace him with outspoken former GOP chair John Dendahl?

Working top sources, both Democratic and Republican, in Washington, D.C. and in our Enchanted Land, I have answers that may be as surprising as the last minute replacement of Damron. History will have to tell the tale in its totality, but the following is the best information available from operatives at the upper most reaches of political power.

THE STARTING POINT

Grumbling about the lack of aggressiveness by Damron began before the R's March pre-primary convention. The Treasurer scandal and news stories popping up hitting the administration of Big Bill were not being touched by the Santa Fe radiologist. Top party figures urged him to start hitting and he said he would. But as the campaign wore on it became clear that he could not or would not. He alluded to this in a statement after bowing out saying the party needed a more aggressive approach.

Among those urging more aggression, according to top sources, was Senator Domenici and his chief of staff Steve Bell. "The intensity over J.R. began several weeks ago and that's when the idea of putting up Dendahl first surfaced," said one of those sources.

"This was a Domenici-Steve Bell operation, plain and simple," asserted a Republican with years of experience in GOP politics.

Domenici and Dendahl at one point had a stressful relationship. The senator called on the then party chair to resign because of his pro-drug legalization position. Monday Domenici told a news conference with NM radio reporters, "We had differences many years ago, but I almost look at him as a new candidate, a new breath of fresh air in the Republican Party...That's how I see it now," declared Domenici.

"It's not the Republican National Committee that is so concerned about the Governor's race. Pete is. He wants to rough up Bill for several reasons, not the least of which is to reestablish himself as the go-to guy in New Mexico. Richardson has dominated the scene and Domenici and his operatives have tired of it." Offered a Washington R.

THE SENATOR SAYS

In that news conference (complete audio here) from the national capital Monday, Senator Domenici also said of the Dendahl candidacy, "Like most Republicans I was very shocked by what happened." However, he added, "it did seem to me that the former candidate, J.R. Damron, was rather quiet and did not campaign much."

The high risk strategy of letting Dendahl take on the Governor was apparently based in the logic that he would rough up Richardson sufficiently to make him damaged goods for any presidential bid, weaken him if a presidential bid did not work out next year and he contemplated running against Domenici in 08', or if Domenici for health reasons or others would be unable to make the 08' race. That could set up a duel with ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson and Big Bill. Domenici is seen as determined not to let his seat pass to Richardson.

"The Dendahl move covers all the bases, but you can't emphasize enough the rivalry for top status in New Mexico politics. That has been Pete's role, but this Governor has in many ways eased him into the shadows," offered another tapped-in and reliable source.

What about the theory that Domenici was caught off guard and simply signed on to a coup engineered by Dendahl? "That is very, very unlikely. (GOP Chair Allen) Weh is responsive to the senator. There's no way this move would have occurred without the permission and complicity of Domenici." The source responded.

DON'T FORGET HEATHER

What about the Wilson angle? Many observers feel Dendahl's controversial positions on legalizing drugs and other matters could hurt the incumbent lawmaker in her battle with Dem Attorney General Patricia Madrid.

"Pete feels Madrid is weighed down with so much ethical baggage that Wilson is really not in danger. He has said as much. They would not have gone for John if they felt otherwise. Heather probably sees danger for her with Dendahl, but with him battling Richardson it could serve to take the Governor's focus off of her." Said our source.

Several sources pointed out that Wilson has tried to warm up to Richardson in the past few years, but the overtures have been rejected and he is fully committed to helping Madrid, another reason she could use to justify a Dendahl bid.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Through the years Domenici has proven expert at keeping his fingerprints undetectable on sensitive political moves. Sometimes the tea leaves can be misread as they were last year when it appeared he was behind the ABQ mayoral effort of R Brad Winter, but in the end did not pull the trigger for Winter.

But the details reported above are circulating in circles not prone to misinterpretation or error, and it all adds up. It even seems to this blogger that parties to the coup want the details out. History will have the final word on the bizarre machinations of this campaign, but at this point it appears it will record that it was certain Republicans in 2006 who adopted the age-old "Movida" that has been identified with the Democrats and their forebears.

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John Dendahl
Ticket sales for ringside seats to the 2006 New Mexico gubernatorial campaign are about to skyrocket. What was to be an ignored undercard featuring lightweight and unknown Santa Fe Doctor J.R. Damron versus heavyweight champ Big Bill was scratched Saturday as the NM GOP tapped slugger and ex-party chair John Dendahl as Damron's replacement. While the political equation remains largely unchanged, the match-up is now expected to last a few rounds and splatter some of the red stuff on the canvas. It could also have an impact on Big Bill's embryonic campaign for the 08' Dem Prez nomination.

The state GOP Central Committee, meeting in downtown ABQ and facing a collapsing Damron candidacy, heard the Doc bow out and immediately nominated Dendahl. But only 100 of the some 350 committee members were in attendance, raising questions as to whether Dendahl, who once was called upon to resign as party chair by GOP Senator Domenici, can unite the minority party as it struggles to establish itself in a year when Democrats are expecting big things. But Dendahl can definitely raise the room temperature and force Big Bill to devote more time to the NM campaign trail as well as work harder to bring Dems to the polls in what now promises to be an extremely negative and personal attack campaign.

And Dendahl wasted no time making it personal. In a TV interview following his surprise nomination, he called the Governor "mean, selfish and vindictive." And the Democrats went to work on Dendahl's Achilles Heel--his support of drug legalization.

"Not only did the GOP bail on one of their own, they installed a venomous and divisive radical who supports policies, such as legalizing drugs, which are outside of the mainstream." Blasted NM Dem chair John Wertheim.

DIVIDER OR UNITER?

Dendahl has much to overcome. The state GOP has been wracked by a civil war featuring a breakaway faction led in part by Dendahl, former GOP national committeeman and lawyer/lobbyist Mickey Barnett and legislators Rod Adair and Dan Foley. The war has quieted somewhat and Bernalillo County GOP Chair Fernando C de Baca asserted Saturday that Dendahl is now "the man who can unite all Republicans."

But Dendahl foes pointed out that three years ago he was ousted from his chairmanship by Ramsay Gorham on a 197 to 156 vote and that if a full meeting of the Committee had been held Saturday it may have blocked Dendahl's ascent. On the other hand, the party has written off victory, lowering the stakes of a Dendahl nomination for his enemies. "I think it's a joke" sulked one R who has long opposed Dendahl. "It shows the party has sunken into disarray."

Gorham was ousted by the breakaway faction in an acrimonious fight that ended with the election of Allen Weh as chair.

Dendahl's support of ex-GOP Guv Gary Johnson's call for legalizing marijuana and possibly other drugs was at the root of the split that was slowly healing. Will all be forgotten and forgiven or will the split now be resurrected?

SALTING THE WOUND

Dem insiders said one of the Guv's first moves to counteract the new challenge could be to form a "Republicans for Richardson" group which he did with success against 02' Guv nominee John Sanchez. "The goal will be to marginalize John and to show that he is out of the mainstream and not acceptable," offered one Dem Alligator.

He pointed out that Dendahl is a much better known and a more capable candidate than Damron, but his 'negatives' are high after his nine years as a controversial chair. "This can cut both ways. Damron was a candidate you could see the R's eventually coming home to. If Dendahl cannot get off to a solid start with his own party, we have a chance to actually get more votes against him than Damron." He analyzed.

But the consensus in the political community was that the Dendahl entry was a development the Guv could have done without.

"This is not about winning the Fourth Floor. That remains a very long shot. This will be about derailing Bill's 08' presidential campaign. Dendahl will do his best to muddy up the Governor. His opponents for the Dem nomination will not have their heads in the sand. They will be watching intently," remarked one longtime Dem power player.

DIMES FOR DENDAHL

Dendahl has proven himself adept at earning "free media" through controversial statements, but will he have the several million dollars necessary to make his case in the paid media? Will national Republicans come with cash to take the nationally ambitious Governor down a notch? "Watch the oil and gas interests. They have been largely funding the state party in recent months. How they feel about Dendahl will be important as they have the funds to help him get off the ground," informed another of my Alligators watching from the crowded sidelines. I would add that we should also watch the outgoing mail of the GOP National Committee.

Dendahl, 67, faces a time crunch to raise that money. It is probable he will be "dark" all summer while Big Bill, who is already up with positive image TV, will continue to dominate the airwaves. That will raise his positives as he waits for the inevitable attacks. If Dendahl's fundraising abilities are not as adept as his skills for making quotable quips, the Guv will dodge a bullet.

But Big Bill's camp is unlikely to wait for the bullet to come their way. They fired first in the TV wars against Sanchez in 02' despite holding a hefty lead in the polls.

"I look for the Governor's people to move right away to define Dendahl to the NM electorate. They will fire first as they did last time. They will try to put this fire out quickly." predicted our Dem Gator.

DENDAHL'S DILEMMAS
Big Bill
While Dendahl's candidacy gave the campaign a needed adrenaline rush, political pros cautioned that Dendahl faces a daunting task in expanding his base beyond Anglo, conservative males. "He has a predicament. He will have to move to the middle to get conservative Democrats and independents and he will have to do it without losing enthusiasm among his base." said a Republican Alligator of long standing.

And then there is Dendahl's Hispanic problem. As a syndicated columnist, he has been arguing for English 'immersion' classes for Spanish speaking students, questioning whether there are any special protections in the NM constitution for Spanish speaking New Mexicans and advocating for very tough measures to close the border with Mexico.

"He has little appeal to Hispanic voters. The risk the Republicans face with this candidacy is the Democrats energizing Hispanics to vote against Dendahl who they will portray as a threat to their culture. If they can't get new voters to the polls, they can still work to pull more regular voting Hispanics into their column," contended the Dem Gator.

But Dendahl, a Santa Fe native, may be able to patch things up with the important bloc, say his sympathizers, by emphasizing school vouchers and tax relief for lower-income New Mexicans.

"John has some good issues and he will have to use them. He will have to get beyond the personal attacks on the Governor if he hopes to get into the mid 40's. School vouchers have appeal across the board, the state surplus is huge and calling for more tax relief could also resonate with many voters," offered our R insider.

But Dendahl is a born and bred political attack dog and is expected to laser in on the various ethics scandal which have plagued the state. So far, voters have not seemed to hold the ethics issues against the Guv. If early attacks with the ethics guns falters, Dendahl's campaign could suffer the same fate as Sanchez's with fundraising petering out and the campaign hitting the wall weeks before Election Day. But top operatives say a candidate like Dendahl will not be so concerned with winning as with inflicting maximum personal damage on the Governor.

SEARCHING FOR A GUV
Allen Weh
R's at that state Central Committee meeting said party chair Allen Weh made entreaties to others to take the top spot when it became clear Damron did not have the stomach for the task. They said former Guv Johnson's name was tossed about as was that of ABQ GOP State Senator and Lieutenant Governor nominee Sue Wilson Beffort. Neither were reportedly interested. Not a few R's were heard scorching the party hierarchy for their iffy recruitment efforts which for the first time in living memory ended in appointing a nominee for the important office of Governor.

Insiders say Wilson Beffort does not have a close relationship with Dendahl. When she first ran for the senate and while he was party chair, her backers say Dendahl and Barnett supported her R challenger who she managed to narrowly beat. Insiders also say she was ultimately recruited for the Light Guv slot by Senator Domenici just days before the filing deadline. She could be used to build some badly needed bridges between Dendahl and moderate R's. Whether she is so motivated remains to be seen.

Former NM GOP Guv Dave Cargo was the first middle of the road R to break with the Dendahl candidacy telling The New Mexican, "We could not have chosen a more divisive candidate."

Dendahl will face immediate organization challenges, but Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman issued a statement of support for his bombastic ally signaling the national significance of the coming battle and the ties of Dendahl and Mickey Barnett to national headquarters. But again, will moral support be complemented by money?

THE HEATHER-PATSY IMPACT

The Alligators came at the impact of all this on the must-watch ABQ congressional race from several angles. One argued that Dendahl's candidacy will boost GOP turnout, especially with hard-core conservatives who may be tempted to stay home thus helping Rep. Heather Wilson in her battle with Dem nominee Patricia Madrid. Another asserted that the Dendahl bid could actually hurt Heather because "moderate Republicans could be tuned off by the whole tenor of a Dendahl candidacy. Some of them may just stay away forcing Heather to get more Democrat votes."

Because the Dendahl campaign will be most polarizing to liberals and hardcore Democrats, the party can now be expected to target liberal bastions and try to excite them about turning out to vote against Dendahl. The drug legalization controversy may best be used against Dendahl in conservative SE "Little Texas" counties where Richardson is weakest and conservative Dems and R's are most numerous. Some expect "independent" committees to be formed to help carry the negative campaign for the Governor so he can lessen his direct engagement with his feisty opponent.

THE FOURTH ESTATE

Reporters love a good fight and Dendahl's entry is music to their ears. But if the attacks are platitudes and too numerous, the media friendly Dendahl could quickly wear out his welcome. His first volley that Big Bill is "mean and vindictive" will have to be backed up with examples if it is to become a mainstay. But much of it will be "old" news and relegated to the back pages, hence the importance of Dendahl raising money to take the game to TV where his team can freshly package the allegations and try to force the Guv into direct engagements.

Dendahl also faces challenges in gathering an experienced campaign team. The last spur-of-the moment GOP effort was last year's Brad Winter ABQ mayoral campaign which suffered when it chose the all-attack-all-the-time approach. Winter was lured into the campaign by the party, but they failed to follow up with money. Damron was also left to the wolves as the party was unable to get heavy hitter donors to put up.

Dendahl needs experienced and dedicated fundraisers yesterday. He may find the same problems Damron did when trying to get people to write a check to oppose a sitting governor who is the odds-on favorite for re-election. The new candidate has family money, but it will be a mental leap to tap his own bank account in the face of the multimillion dollar machine he is now up against.

THE CONSPIRACY

Being the lightning rod he is, it was no surprise to hear some semi-serious speculation that the Dendahl candidacy was really a long time in the making; that Damron was actually a stalking horse with ties to Dendahl who planned all along to drop out at the last minute. Dendahl tried to capture the Guv nomination in 94' but came in third in a field of four (Gary Johnson won) and could not be expected to be nominated by R's in the 06' primary. Black helicopters could be heard whirring as this tale was spun, but it was too much fun to pass up.

THE DEBATES

TV debates could prove tricky for Big Bill. The Bad Boy John-Big Bill match-up is a made for TV circus and there will likely be numerous offers. If the Guv is polling well he may choose to decline several of them risking criticism, but depriving Dendahl of a statewide platform where he could further bloody the chief executive's nose.

MY BOTTOM LINES

Back in January I appeared with Dendahl as a guest analyst on KNME-TV for the Guv's "State-of-the-State" Speech. He said then that Damron would have trouble beating Big Bill but that the Guv's margin of victory "would be less" than it was four years ago. That margin was a landslide of 16 points. Can Dendahl do any better? If he can tap in to the animosity he claims exists towards the Governor, he has a good shot. But Big Bill, while shaking his head over the loss of Damron, will also now look at the opportunity not just the danger of the R's wild card candidacy.

A break past 60%, historically difficult for any Governor, may actually have been more difficult against Damron who came with neither past baggage or a record of polarization. But Dendahl's suitcase is full and while he is much more dangerous than Damron, he also offers, as one of my analysts put it, "the chance for the big play; a complete demonization of Dendahl as a radical out of the mainstream opponent. That's something that could not be done to Damron." Still, most of the Alligators think it is difficult for a Guv in our state to take it over 60% and believe 55-58% is his range. They await developments before revising. The 60% is important to the Guv's camp as they would like to make a forceful debut on the presidential stage. A break much below 60%, say 55% or lower, could impact national fundraising and momentum.

John Dendahl says he got involved in conservative politics after reading Barry Goldwater's seminal writings. The Arizona senator was offered up as the sacrificial lamb against President Johnson in 1964. John Dendahl is more akin to a sacrificial wolf, but as he demonstrated this weekend and as he has throughout his lengthy stint in La Politica, he is capable of the big surprise. He will need more of them if he is to inflict serious damage on the state's premier power player.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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Despite repeated assurances that he was in the race to stay, Santa Fe's J. R Damron announced to the NM Republican Party State Central Committee Saturday that he is dropping out of the race. The committee then chose ex-GOP Chairman John Dendahl to be their party's nominee to take on Democratic Governor Bill Richardson in the November election.

We'll have a complete report plus exclusive analysis for you Monday.

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Senator Griego
Some long knives are coming out on State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez, possibly setting up a challenge to his leadership, or at least a check on his power. The sharpest knife is being wielded by his old foe, State Senator and fellow Dem Phil Griego, who fired off a letter to each Democratic senator claiming the senate "managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory" during the last legislative session. Griego asks in the letter: "What the hell happened to us?" He also calls on the Dem caucus to seek answers from Leader Sanchez. On the other side, Griego is being accused of carrying water for Governor Big Bill who would not shed tears if Sanchez of Belen was pushed aside.

You may recall that during the final moments of the 30 day 06' Session three key pieces of legislation--payday loans, an increase in the state minimum wage and a big transportation funding bill, GRIP II, were all left to die. Senator Griego is pointing the finger at the leadership saying "there was no communication among he Democrats." He also told me in a phone interview last week before we broke for a post-election holiday that "the issues should have been discussed from the beginning of the session," but that Leader Sanchez failed to call "even one meeting of the Dem caucus."

Griego argues to his fellow senators that the leadership needs "to listen to the governor and "deal with his issues. We're all on the same page, but we never established any real communication with the governor. We are in the majority in the senate but we are not acting like it."

LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE?

On the flip side, another Dem senator told me, the majority of the senators "are happy with Michael and don't see things as Phil does. Michael represents us well and I doubt if there will be a serious challenge," the senator said. He added that the "Old Bulls" of the chamber such as Sens. Altimirano and Fidel are unlikely to back any challenge.

As for Grigeo, he said he is not trying to oust Sanchez, although two years ago he and Senator Dede Feldman lost the majority Leader position to Sanchez. "That position is for the caucus to decide. I am putting forth issues that need to be discussed," said Griego, while also saying the detailed plan he presented then on how the senate should be run would be useful for the caucus to review.

He does say that the Fourth Floor bears some of the responsibility for the breakdown in communication. "Maybe the Governor did put a little more than needed before us, but we need to discuss these things," he said.

For his part, Big Bill was smarting after the session in which Sanchez stiff-armed him and weakened the chief executive in the eyes of analysts and the public. In the 02' campaign the Guv introduced Griego to northern New Mexicans as the "next majority leader, but that didn't happen and Sanchez has been independent of the Guv since.

Griego denies being a stalking horse for the Governor, but if he were to again enter the race for majority leader and somehow pull off a upset, the power politics and therefore the policies of New Mexico could see significant change. Since that appears a long shot, perhaps the play is to soften up Sanchez to be more of a team player with the Fourth Floor and its senate allies. Trial lawyer Sanchez has shown himself to be a skilled power player, but there are others there equally knowledgeable in the fine art of La Politica and more than willing to test those skills.

NEW AUDITOR CONTENDER

GOP sources are checking in with news that Lorenzo Garcia, who ran for NM State Treasurer in 1994 as the Green Party nominee and in 98' as the GOP Treasurer candidate, will be named this weekend by the GOP State Central Committee to replace ABQ's Dan Alvarez who won the June GOP primary for state auditor, but is getting out. Garcia, a CPA, commanded a surprising 47% of the vote against Montoya in 98'. They apparently hope they can do the same against Dem Jeff Armijo who we blogged has some analysts saying he has some soft spots.

BOTTOM LINE

Suzan Reagan of the NM Labor Department blogs in to update us on the latest jobless figures for the state which we blogged on Thursday. She says the rate is now at 4.3%, up from the 3.9% in March that we cited. But the point holds: NM's unemployment rate is at an historic low and Big Bill and other D's will hammer that theme heavy in the coming campaign.

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Sure, Big Bill's got over $5 million in the bank and, yes, he remains larger than life to many voters. But so does Arnold Schwarzenegger in California and his re-election is no sure thing. It's more than just prestige and charm that gets politicos reelected; it's also how folks are feeling about their personal lot in life. And that's why these statistics are so frightful to the Guv's opposition. The jobless rate in our Enchanted Land has plummeted the past four years. I know, can the Guv really take credit for that? But you and I both know if unemployment was jumping, he would take the blame.

What's startling to longtime observers is that of our 33 counties only one, Luna, has a jobless rate in the double digits, 14.7%. It wasn't that long ago that Mora, Rio Arriba, San Miguel and Taos counties were also in the double digit category. And a state jobless rate at 3.9%? Maybe the unemployed gave up looking, but I doubt it. After a generation of watching double digit rates stubbornly refuse to come down, it's gratifying to see the change, knowing that a lot of our young people are finally finding work in their home state.

BLOGGING ESPANOLA

A recent Friday night visit to Espnaola in Rio Arriba revealed a bustling scene with cars jammed into the Dreamcatcher Cinema parking lot; the casino in a bowling alley (only In Espanola!) was hopping and the waitresses at Joann's restaurant on the main drag were kept busy by a steady flow of patrons. The area is still beset by major social problems such as drug addiction, but there has been real economic progress there.

We're not giving credit or blame to the Guv for the renewal of the economy reflected in the job stats, or the busy business we witnessed in Espanola, just pointing out that his opponents have major work ahead of them if they are to make the case that the New Mexican economy is stalled out. Even the powerful ethics arguments the R's are going to put forth are going to have some stiff competition for attention when voters have spare change jingling in their pockets. Don't say we didn't tell you.

GLORIA'S NEW GIG

The grandaughter of the late, legendary NM U.S. Senator Dennis Chavez, Gloria Tristani, has a new gig. She's president of the D.C-based Benton Foundation, a small private foundation that "is committed to articulating a public interest vision for the digital age and demonstrating the value of communications for solving social problems."

If your like Gloria, a former Federal Communications Commissioner, you probably understood what that means better than I do. Tristani raised he liberal Dem flag against Senator Domenici in 2002, but she succumbed to him as have all other previous challenges. Which raises a question. Now that pete has said he will go for yet another term in 08', when he will be 76, who will the Dems field against him. Any names? E-mail them in.

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If you are under 60 a lot of what is about to transpire in the hotly contested race for the ABQ congressional seat will fly right over your head. Both incumbent GOP U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson and Dem challenge Patsy Madrid are bowing before the altar of senior citizens. Heather hit the phones last month with a "robo call" urging seniors to call her office if they were having trouble signing up for the Medicare prescription drug program. A few days earlier Patsy launched a petition drive to gather signatures in support of extending the May 15th deadline for seniors to sign up for the drug program.

The math is obvious. 2006 is a non-presidential year. The senior vote will represent nearly 20% of all votes cast, nearly double what it represents when the Prez race is on the ballot. Also, polling shows Heather's strongest demographic is folks over 65. With numbers like those expect to learn more than you ever wanted about Viagra and adult diapers. Will this one be known as the "Prune Juice" campaign?

As for the Wilson-Madrid duel, it remains fully in play or, as Dan Rather would say: "This race is shakier than cafeteria Jell-O."

MARTY AND MADRID

He may have received a lot of support from ABQ R's in last year's ABQ mayoral contest, but Heather Wilson wasnt one of them. Now, City Hall wall-leaners say ABQ Mayor Martin Chavez won't forget that slight and expect to see him on the campaign trail in support of Patricia Madrid.

Maybe Chavez can help her. Maybe not. Top Dems say one group Madrid polls weak in is Hispanic males. Chavez would seem naturally suited to help, but he hasn't been all that strong with that group either as he has carved out a conservative record that has had more appeal to Anglo Republicans. Still, the mayor can command his loyalists to get enthusiastic about Madrid and one supposes that can't hurt. Meanwhile, Mayor Marty has already endorsed NM GOP Senator Domenici for re-election in 2008. Yes, that's the same Domenici who, in the end, stayed sidelined during the ABQ's mayor race which Dem Chaves handily won.

HEATHER IN THE MORNING
Heather
Think our congressional folk are all news junkies like many of us? Well, I hate to disappoint, but Congresswoman Heather for one, has a different way of starting her day. Take a gander at this from her latest newsletter describing how she learned of the death of terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

"I'm not a morning news show person. I like silence with my coffee. And so, I was walking into the Intelligence hearing room at the Capitol on Thursday just after 7 a.m. Albuquerque time when I got the good news: we got Zarqawi."

You mean no Heather glued to morning National Public Radio and with CNN blaring from the kitchen TV? Well, silence can be golden, and it may explain why I haven't heard back yet from Heather's office on an invitation I extended to her a couple of weeks ago to get together for coffee. If she likes silence with her Starbucks, I'm the last guy she would want to hang with. Hey, Heather. Afternoon tea?

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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Armijo
Jeff Armijo got out of his Democratic primary for state auditor with no problem, but he may not be out of the woods. Alligators on both side of the aisle say the ABQ travel agency owner could be subjected to an R campaign to "Trujilloize"' him. The reference is to the 2002 General Election when Pat Lyons hit heavy and hard on Art Trujillo's drunk driving record, sending out mail hit pieces that showed mug shots of the former Democratic Party chairman. The attacks are credited for allowing Lyons to become the first GOP state land commissioner in 20 years. Armijo, an elected member of the TVI Community College Governing Board from ABQ's West Side, who was hit by Buckner over speeding tickets, does not have a record like Trujillo's, but there is an issue that could subject him to some withering attacks ala Trujillo.

Some top Dem insiders say Armijo's relationship with indicted ex-Treasurer Robert Vigil will be the likely subject of any hit pieces. Vigil is quoted on FBI tapes saying Armijo is a candidate he would like to help out financially. Armijo says he received a $50 donation from Vigil and he describes Vigil as a "friend."

R sources report GOP auditor primary nominee Dan Alvarez is getting out of the race which his heart was never fully in and that the GOP Central committee will name a replacement. That replacement will be faced with am uphill battle as no R has taken the slot since the 60's.

Armijo, a Socorro native and president of a family owned ABQ travel agency, faltered a bit in big Bernalillo county primary night where foe Tom Buckner held him under 60%, perhaps because media coverage of Vigil was most intense here. But in the statewide total Armijo brought it home with a landslide, garnering 62%.

Armijo, 36, impressed party insiders with his determination and winning personality on the campaign trail. He is heavily favored for victory in November, but he may face a test if the GOP can convince its party faithful that funding their auditor hopeful could give them another Pat Lyons.

WEH WEIGHS IN

NM GOP Party Chairman Allen Weh is not taking lightly charges reported here Friday that the party did not stay in a neutral corner in that GOP battle for the U.S. Senate nomination. Weh blogged in that supporters of unsuccessful senate hopeful ABQ GOP State Senator Joe Carraro have it wrong; that the party did not work it behind-the-scenes for winner and Farmington doctor Allen McCulloch.

"The NM GOP worked very hard to treat all the candidates neutrally and, as might be expected from political types working very hard to win, they all at one point or another thought the party was helping the other guy. We really did a "a dance down the middle" on this one. In reality, the outcome of this race was largely determined by McCulloch's superior fundraising, which should be no surprise to your readers. I am confident that we'll have this campaign on track and on message in relatively short order."

Supporters of Dem Senator Bingaman can enjoy the GOP side show while they worry about McCulloch and whether he will put any of his personal fortune into this race, possibly shaking up the perception that the race is a complete cakewalk for NM's junior senator.

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Big Bill
There was no high-fives between Big Bill and newly crowned Dem attorney general nominee Gary King Primary Election Night. In fact, those in a position to know report that the Guv's congratulations to Gary at Dem headquarters were cursory and went something like: "Congratulations, Gary. See you on the trail." Likewise, King was not seeking a warm and fuzzy session with the Guv. It's no surprise. One King operative asserted that "the Governor's fingerprints were all over Geno's campaign and we know it." Geno, of course, being Geno Zamora the 36 year old Santa Fe attorney who was making his first run for office but was turned back by a King landslide.

Pointedly, King set up a campaign party Election Night separate from the Democratic Party's at the ABQ Hilton and joined the Dems only to make the TV newscasts. Was King already showing his "independence" from the Big Bill controlled Dems. Or am I reading too much into this?

"Joe, You are getting the point. Gary is a Democrat, but he is going to emphasize his independence in this campaign," relayed our operative who said Zamora was beat, in part, because he became known as "the Governor's boy."

Zamora's negative TV ad featuring Gary and the other AG hopeful, Lem Martinez, did not go down well with the King camp. They see it as unnecessary and say Gary's landslide proves the race was never in play; that Zamora's polls showed it and he should have never pulled the trigger. The Guv has denied any direct involvement in the Zamora effort, but that has been met with guffaws by the Alligators who note the $600,000 war chest the heretofore unknown Zamora was able to amass.

Friction between the King's and the Guv is old news. But the stakes are higher now that a King is a step closer to securing major New Mexican political power for the first time in a dozen years. Still, there could be political upside to the cool relationship between the duo. The R's may find it difficult to accuse Big Bill of trying to control the AG. In fact, he can embrace Gary as part of the Democrats' efforts to enforce high ethical standards and take note of their mutual independence. And Gary can convincingly argue that he will be the independent voice voters want in their AG. The perfect end to this tale is the old saying, "politics makes for strange bedfellows."

THE CONCERNS OF CARRARO

The Gators are also on the loose in the GOP as emotions are stoked by the election returns. ABQ State Senator and unsuccessful GOP U.S. Senate candidate Joe Carraro is reportedly livid at operatives at the NM GOP and particularly its executive director, Marta Kramer. A Carraro campaign insider claims under Kramer's guidance the state party indicated support for the winner, Farmington Doctor Allen McCulloch. They further claim that Carraro had to fight with the state party to get voter information that he was entitled to and only after heavy pressure did Kramer relent.

When McCulloch let fly a mail hit piece against Joe in the final days of the campaign, it generated outrage among Carraro supporters, including ABQ state Senator Kent Cravens and former NM GOP Chair John Lattauzio of Alamogordo who said in a letter to McCulloch: "As a Republican volunteer of more than forty years, I wish to express my distaste and disapproval for your malicious attack on a dedicated public servant, Senator Joe Carraro."

Seems the good doctor and the state party both have work to do to heal the wounds from his recent battle.

BIG BILL TUBE BUY

Sometimes these politicians are too clever by half. Only one day after the June 6 primary Big Bill appeared on NM TV screens last night with his first ad of the 06' campaign. It's a feel-gooder aimed at conservatives about how he has cut taxes and run a tight fiscal ship. Another one is a black and white number featuring still photos of the Guv and addressing education and health care. In the first, he looks relaxed in a blue shirt and voices the spot himself. How much did he buy? Should we even bother to ask? With over $5 million in the bank, Big Bill is about to give new meaning to the word ubiquitous.

WANT A CLOSE ONE?

It doesn't get any closer than it did in Sandoval county Tuesday night where two of the three candidates vying for the probate judgeship there ended up with the exact same number of votes.

Erardo Misquez--817--16.6%, Stevan Jay Schoen--2056--41.7%,
Charles Aguilar--2056--41.7%.

They will cut the cards or flip a coin if it remains tied at the end of a recount. I hope all of the relatives of Schoen and Aguilar voted in this one. Otherwise, there is going to be some pain in the house.

I hope you enjoyed our coverage of Primary 06' on the blog, on TV and radio. I'll be around next week with some special stuff, but not in the breaking news mix as we re-group and prepare for the coming campaigns. Thanks for the company.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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Gary King
It looked like the King machine of days of yore. Gary King stole the thunder and the night as he decisively defeated Santa Fe attorney Geno Zamora and District Attorney Lem Martinez in the contest for the Democratic Party's nomination for attorney general. The race failed to provide the suspense that the pre-election hype promised as the 52 year old King, son of legendary three term NM former Governor Bruce King, resurrected his political career by taking 47% of the vote to Geno's 32% and Lem's 21%.

It appeared to be a historic low voter turnout for a New Mexico primary election. For example, turnout crashed to 8% of the registered voters in Dona Ana County. But low turnout or high, this one was destined for King. Across the state he flexed his muscles impressively. In big Bernalillo County he even won a majority--52%. King broke across ethnic lines as he performed strong in the Spanish North, even keeping close to Zamora in Rio Arriba County and dominating the "Little Texas" counties of SE NM. Victory was especially sweet coming as it did after King's 04' congressional defeat and another one in 02' for the guv nomination.

In typical King fashion he immediately offered an olive branch to his opponents who promptly accepted. King's border- to-border dominance set him up as the favorite for November when he will face newcomer R Jim Bibb, son-in-law of former Governor Toney Anaya.

My analysts at KANW weighed in that a King victory could take some air out of the tires of the R's, who are hoping state ethics scandals will convince voters to turn to them for an attorney general. They said King's reputation for integrity means making the ethics case against him will be difficult. And they also noted that Gary, unlike Zamora, has an arms-length relationship with Governor Richardson and that the argument that he would be a tool of the powerful chief executive is also off the table.

BACA CLIFFHANGER
Baca
Even though the AG's race fizzled, there was still plenty of suspense. And it came from two men with political ties to the King family. The Associated Press told me Jim Baca was clinging to a 1600 vote lead over Ray Powell at 3:00 a.m. Neither political veteran was ready to say who will be the next Dem nominee for land commissioner. (UPDATE: Baca has won the race by 2000 votes.) It was deja vu for the 60 year old former ABQ mayor who in 1982 sought the Dem primary land nod and went to bed behind by some 700 votes, only to awaken to victory as late votes came in.

It was the Hispanic north that rescued the Baca candidacy this time when it hit the skids early in the evening as former land boss Powell dominated Albuquerque, even winning Baca's home precinct. The experts started to lean toward Ray, but the tide turned when Baca blew the doors off in San Miguel County, scoring about a two to one win and carrying the city of Las
Vegas. The poor ABQ showing was a hangover from his days as mayor, an office he lost in a re-election bid in 01', but the more you traveled north the more forgiving the electorate was toward the environmentalist. If he hangs on he will face a well-funded incumbent Republican land commissioner in Patrick Lyons.

MARY MAKES MERRY

Its been along time since a Bernalillo County candidate captured the Dem nomination for secretary of state, but county clerk Mary Herrera did it in fine fashion, bringing it home with an impressive 40% of the vote to 29% for former Secretary of State Stephanie Gonzales. Shirley Hooper and Letitia Montoya trailed. Herrera did well in southern NM offsetting a fourth place finish in Santa Fe County. She came through with her necessary landslide in Bernalillo county, going over the 60% mark. The next secretary of state will come from NM's largest city as former ABQ City Councilor Vickie Perea ran unopposed for the R nomination.

Herrera is the favorite in November as the R's have not won the slot since 1929, but GOP Chair Allen Weh told the radio audience Perea is their strongest candidate in years and that election snafus that have plagued the state could convince D's to cross over to Perea. But it's a long shot and the 49 year old Herrera, who started in government as a typist, is positioned to take the leap to the statewide stage.

ARMIJO SAYS: "ROBERT WHO?"

If Jeff Armijo's relationship with indicted ex-state Treasurer Robert Vigil was a big issue, you wouldn't know it last night. The native New Mexican trounced rival Tom Buckner in the race for state auditor, grabbing 62% to Tom's 38%. Bernalillo county results were not quite as impressive where the scandal coverage has been heaviest; Buckner held him below 60% here, but that was the only shadow on an otherwise bright night for the travel agency owner. The R's nominated Dan Alvarez, but he may withdraw and a new candidate, according to Republican sources, should be named later this month. It will take a major effort to stop Armijo now and whether the GOP will come with the necessary funds is the open question.

My analysts also thought that the unopposed nomination of Dem James Lewis for state Treasurer, an office he held in the 80's, also bodes well for the majority party as it tries to shed its ethical baggage. He's another candidate with a reputation for integrity, they said, giving him a strong advantage over the GOP's Demesia Padilla, an ABQ CPA.

SO LONG, SHIRLEY

The easy ouster of controversial politician E. Shirley Baca by State Expo Chair Sandy Jones for the Public Regulation Commission seat down south raised the expert eyebrows. Sandy shut the door on Shirley when he rolled over her in her home county of Dona Ana. Her pot bust in late 04' was no doubt a major reason for her defeat, even though she reminded voters the charge was dismissed. This is a D district and Jones is expected to take the seat in November.

We had a good night on the air, but there's always one race that gives you trouble. This time it was the PRC race for northwest NM. Derrith Watchman-Moore had the early lead, but it wasn't until very late that we noticed that McKinley County Clerk Carol Sloan had eased past her to claim the victory. Also losing out in this one was former Bernalillo County Commissioner Steve Gallegos. It's seen as an easy win for the D's in November.

RACING FOR THE ROUNDHOUSE

The highlight of the Dem legislative contests was the four way race for the Dem nomination for the state House seat on ABQ's West Side being vacated by Harriet Ruiz. Antonio "Moe" Maestas raised the young, "progressive" Dem flag and coasted to victory over Pat Baca, Jr. Maestas took 34% of the vote to Baca's 27% with Dominic Aragon and Dan Serrano trailing. This is another heavy Dem district and Maestas should be sitting in the Roundhouse next year.

In the GOP's banner legislative race, the expensive duel for the state House seat being vacated by Avon Wilson in Roswell, educator Mike Kakuska, backed by oilman Mark Murphy, came up short as he was defeated by Nora Espinoza whose campaign was led by conservative State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair.

Before the primary Murphy signaled that he is considering running for the state chairmanship of the GOP. The defeat could impact those plans. In another widely watched GOP primary battle, contractor Richard Berry won easily and is on his way to the Legislature as no Dem is running for the seat. Berry took out James White who was backed by state House Minority Leader Ted Hobbs and who is retiring.

The youngest member of the NM Legislature, 27 year old Justine Fox-Young, and a thorn in the side to the House Dem leadership, is positioned to continue giving them headaches. She dismissed a challenge from Bob White who she defeated in a GOP primary two years ago in her ABQ NE Heights district. She has a Dem opponent, John McWaters, who will try to make her road back to Santa Fe a bit rocky, but the district is heavy R.

THE DOCTOR'S DELIGHT

Allen McCulloch has the financial resources to cause some headaches for U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman. Will he? The Farmington urologist scored an impressive 51% of the vote to overcome ABQ State Senator Joe Carraro and ex-Santa Fe City Councilor David Pfeffer to become the GOP nominee for Bingaman's seat. McCulloch took some hits for a late attack on Carraro, but the fact that it did not backfire may encourage him to go rough on Jeff. Still, the senator remains the heavy favorite to secure a fifth, six year term when voters go back to the voting booths for the general election.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Thanks to all who tuned in to our broadcast last night and early this morning. The bottom line is that it is time to put this election to bed, and your blogger too.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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So few voters. So much uncertainty. It's a recipe for an exciting Election Night. Contested primary elections are the most difficult to predict, especially in a low turnout one like today's. The key to victory depends on just who shows up at the polls. That's why you see the top consultants and Alligators quoted here hesitant to go too far out on the limb. Having said that, here are some key things to listen for tonight. Of course, we hope you do so with us on KANW 89.1 FM starting at 6:30 p.m.

In the Dem race for attorney general it's early precincts with big Hispanic vote counts. If Lem Martinez is running competitively with Geno Zamora, it will make things difficult for Geno. It's the scenario Gary King's camp is rooting for. If Geno is cleaning up in these wards, his prospects for a good night improve.

It's a similar story in the four way Dem race for secretary of state. Stephanie Gonzales and Mary Herrera don't want to see Letitia make a big move in the heavy Hispanic wards. It would mean Shirley Hooper is going to be a threat.

Don't buy into the ethnic factor? Reconsider. According to Research and Polling, when a New Mexico voter has little information about a race, 78% of them will vote along ethnic lines. There won't be as many of them in a low-turnout primary election that attracts hard core, informed voters, but there will be a good number of them. That's why in the closing days Zamora and Martinez have been working to spike the Hispanic turnout.

King's last poll shows him at 39%, Geno at 19%. Geno should surge big tonight as Hispanic voters are the least likely to tell pollsters who they will vote for. Martinez is in high single digits.

The fate of Dem land commissioner hopeful Jim Baca may rest in ABQ. Watch precincts from the ABQ SE Heights where in the past Baca has been popular with enviros and Dem liberals. If Ray Powell holds him down there, Baca could have a rough night.

A DAY IN OUR LIVES

When I called my first election at the tender age of 19, my hands shook so severely, I thought the paper would start shredding. I have calmed down (some) over the years, but I still fret and get butterflies before the red light comes on. I guess if I didn't it would be a signal that perhaps a break was in order.

In live broadcasting, as in speech making, it's about knowing your material. If you are comfortable with the subject, you want the night to last forever. Of course, I have a team of experts who are quick to jump in when I inevitably falter on a particular race or get a fact wrong. Safety nets are good.

I start my Election Day scanning the papers statewide, checking in with some of the Alligators and monitoring turnout reports. And I look at the ballot and wonder about the candidates, their families and their hopes. I respect them because they are putting it all on the line.

It's the first-timers who I wonder about the most. This time it's Geno Zamora, Jeff Armijo and Allen McCulloch, to name a few. Imagine the emotional peaks and valleys they will have tonight. Win or lose, it will be one of the most formative experiences of their lifetimes.

And I wonder about the grizzled veterans. They are battle-tested, but they are human. Working in campaigns you see men and women who you know are as tough as nails let the tears freely flow when this most public of referendums turns against them. When they win, you witness almost a physical transformation, a new found confidence that only comes in a democratic system where your peers pass judgement.

Tonight, of course, is about the numbers. Who's up. Who's down. But behind those numbers is the personal drama that keeps us fascinated, year in and year out, with our beloved La Politica. Good luck to all our candidates and their staffs.

BIG NIGHT, BIG COVERAGE

We've got you covered. Our 19th year of consecutive Election Night coverage on KANW- 89.1 FM kicks off at 6:30. Our exclusive, early results come in shortly after the polls close. The aforementioned Scott Scanland, GOP State Senator John Ryan and Dem State Rep. Tom Swisstack will be joined by politico Lenton Malry to form the main team. Thanks to ABQ's Ladera Golf, Bill Campbell Agency, Realtors and Enterprise rent-a-car for making it possible. Here's more:

Steve Cabiedes and Harry Pavlides captain the precinct coverage. During the evening you will hear from State Senator Taylor; pollster Brian Sanderoff and Republican Bruce Donisthorpe. R Vic Segura is at ABQ GOP headquarters. Dem Chris Catechis reports live from his party's big party. Ace blogger Heath Haussamen covers Dona Ana county and political reporter Ave Maestas is our man in SW NM.

Like I said, we've got you covered, so join us for a night of pure, unbridled New Mexico politics. On the morning after come back here for all the highlights of NM Primary Election 2006. Meanwhile, I'll see you on the radio!

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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Less than twenty-four little hours. That's all the candidates have left to convince Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico that they deserve a place on the brightly lit stage of La Politica. The verdict of the people will be carried out dispassionately and, in some cases, mercilessly, as they decide who deserves to advance to November's main event.

Recently, emotionalism has developed over the incompetent distribution of those state voter ID cards; cards that are not required to vote and should never have been approved by the Governor and the NM Legislature. The mishap should not lead New Mexicans to believe the legitimacy of this election is in doubt nor discourage them from casting their ballots. Our election process, like every other human undertaking, contains flaws, but it is not riddled with fraud.

Republican U.S. Attorney David Iglesias formed a special task force to detect voter fraud in the 2004 NM election. It found nothing significant. He should continue his work in that regard. But "vote-buying" and counting the votes without glitches are the more serious concerns our state faces. Now, let's get out on the campaign trail...

WANTED: FOR IMPERSONATING A DEMOCRAT!

Well, the fun stuff always comes at the end, doesn't it? Take a look at this flyer (part one) for district judge candidate Betsy Musselman up in Taos. Do you think it's hard hitting enough? (part two) This is a five way race for the Dem nomination for the judgeship vacated by the well-respected Peggy Nelson.

Big Bill appointed former Taos D.A. John Paternoster to fill the vacancy in April. No R is running in November so the winner Tuesday takes the whole enchilada. It should be a fun one to watch Election Night.

KANW ELECTION SPECIAL AT 5 P.M. TODAY

I'll see if I can get some top politicians to commit to predicting the key races when we present our traditional pre-game show at 5 p.m. today on KANW 89.1 FM, heard throughout north-central NM. ABQ Dem State Senator James Taylor, who lives and breathes campaigns, will be paired with GOP State Senator John Ryan who has the inside scoop on all the GOP action. Billy Sparks, former press aide to Big Bill, has lengthy experience in national and state campaigns and we're also anticipating his insights.

Top lobbyist Scott Scanland has worked NM elections with me as our chief political analyst for at least 15 years. A native New Mexican, Scanland has keen insight into the legislature and an enviable record for predicting winners. Tune in today and see how Scott and the rest of panel fare this time.

KANW-FM Election Night Coverage begins at 6:30 Tuesday and goes all night long. We thank our sponsors--Enterprise rent-a-car, Ladera Golf and the Bill Campbell Agency, Realtors for their support of public radio.

WRONG WAY WEB

Those campaign reports due Thursday at the secretary of state's office could not be posted on the Web for the political types anxiously awaiting them. Here's what went wrong. The reports are now available for publci viewing.

SCHWARTZ'S FORTUNES

Bob Schwartz has ended his political career with $523.82 in the bank. You probably won't see it donated to the Republican party which dissed him at its pre-primary nominating convention earlier this year when not enough R's voted to give him a place on Tuesday's ballot. Schwartz might consider giving his leftover funds to Big Bill who has rehired him to a state government position. But with over $5 million in the bank, the Guv might not notice. How about a donation to the Marty Chavez for Governor Committee? You can never plan too early, Bob.

THE CATTY COMMISSION RACE
"Jerry the Cat"
While some of the major statewide candidates are making nasty in the final hours, Dem land commissioner contenders Ray Powell and Jim Baca are actually making nice. Well, mostly Powell. In his final missive, Ray e-mails that "regardless of who the winner is, it will be a unified Democratic effort to take back the Land Office in the general election. We have both committed to support the winner whole heartedly."

In perhaps a new low in pandering for votes, Baca claims that his pet, "Jerry the Cat," has finally agreed to endorse him. This after I reported that Baca was risking the support of animal groups by complaining on his blog that he was lonely when his wife was out of town because "only" Jerry and the dogs were around.

In a news release, Baca said, "Jerry the Cat predicts a comfortable margin of victory for his beloved master. 'My most gracious master and provider will win his race for land commissioner because his opponent left 50K sitting in the bank rather than using it to secure more votes.'" Jerry allegedly said.

It seems the cat has the same prickly personality as its owner. A spokesman for "Avians for Powell" doubted the veracity of Jerry the Cat's endorsement. "That statement is for us birds." They said.

So concludes the catcalls and birdcalls of Primary 06'. Let's get together again tomorrow and get ready to count the votes.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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The three way race for the GOP U.S. Senate nomination has played out in a placid pool, but waves splashed in the final hours of the campaign Saturday as Allen McCulloch let loose a hit piece against ABQ State Senator Joe Carraro to which Carraro responded with a vengeance.

The Farmington urologist, the perceived front runner in the contest, released a mail piece accusing Carraro of taking a taxpayer funded "junket" to Hawaii. The hit piece showed a photo of a man and woman in swimsuits lounging on the beach. The photo was not of Carraro.

Carraro defended the trip which he said was sponsored for state legislators by the Homeland Security department and took place shortly after the 9/11 attacks. He calls McCulloch's last hours attack "slimy desperation."

"I am saddened that Allen McCulloch would attempt to turn my attending a meeting of utmost importance, into a farce. I am surprised and disappointed that the McCulloch campaign has sunken to the depths of slimy desperation in their attempts to mislead and deceive New Mexicans." Blasted Carraro.

And ABQ GOP State Senator Kent Cravens got in on the action as he rose to defend his fellow senator.

"I guess the McCoullochs don't know about dignity and respect...He knows even less about how state government works. The truth is that New Mexicans really lose out when officials don't travel, network and learn from other leaders," so slammed Cravens as he joined the late-breaking fray in a race which also features David Pfeffer.

McCulloch also accuses Carraro of voting to increase the pensions of state legislators. Carraro did not address that charge.

Is the McCulloch hit piece a sign that this race is closer than the Doc's camp was hoping? We'll see Tuesday night when we bring you the results on KANW 89.1 FM starting at 6:30.

BIG BILL'S PUSH

No TV ads from Governor Big Bill who has no Dem Guv primary opponent. But his campaign volunteers were busy at his downtown ABQ headquarters Saturday preparing door hangers telling Dems to vote for him and that provide voter info. Meanwhile, Light Guv Diane Denish, also unopposed for the Dem nomination, joked to Dem land commission hopeful Ray Powell that she senses "a landslide building." Not necessarily for Ray though. He is in a tight fight with Jim Baca for the Dem land office nod.

DON'T FORGET SHIRLEY

The insiders are pegging ex-Secretary of State Stephanie Gonzales and Bernalillo County Clerk Mary Herrera as the favorites in the four way race for the Dem nomination for secretary of state in Tuesday's balloting. But several Alligator types e-mail in that these insiders are missing out if they don't keep ex-Secretary of State Shirley Hooper on their radar. Here's how one of them puts it:

"Have the 'experts' forgotten how ethnicity plays out in Demo primaries? Hooper will benefit from the same force of NM nature that (Dem attorney general candidate Gary) King will; a ballot with more than one Hispanic surname, and only one Anglo. I'll bet you lunch on it!"

Good point and maybe a good bet. The other contender in the race is Santa Fe's Letitia Montoya.

VIGIL'S POLL

What was indicted ex-Treasurer Robert Vigil up to when he spent nearly $20,000 of campaign funds on a March poll shortly before his federal trial on corruption charges got underway? According to a source close to the Vigil camp, Robert's wife was urging him to consider yet another run for the Treasurer's office--as an independent! If so, it gives new meaning to the saying: "Never say die."

The KANW 89.1 FM Election Eve Special is just hours away. Join me and my guest panel Monday at 5 p.m. for a full hour of La Politica. Election Night Coverage starts at 6:30 Tuesday.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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It's not voter fraud New Mexico has to fret about, it's voter participation. The brouhaha over the mailing of new state voter ID cards, some containing erroneous info, but not required to vote, is overshadowing the real problem in this primary election---getting people out to vote. Never mind reviving paranoia that somehow, someone, somewhere will steal the election. Heck, you couldn't give this one away, and the candidates know it. They're scrambling for every single vote as they crisscross the state in this final weekend before Tuesday's primary election.

The two leading candidates for the most watched race this year, or at least the two who have spent the most money, Gary King and Geno Zamora, headed to areas that may prove pivotal when we count the votes Tuesday night on KANW 89.1 FM. King is preparing to head for the East side Monday to court conservative Dems and Zamora was in Navajo country--the Four Corners and McKinley County to persuade Native Americans.

One Alligator says maybe Geno read Governor Richardson's biography in which he talked about how the Navajo vote proved key to his 1982 congressional primary win which featured three Hispanic candidates and Tom Udall. Interesting. Perhaps Zamora, who fears splitting the Hispanic North with Lemuel Martinez, the third candidate in the race, could make up any deficit with a big win in Indian country.

The latest and final King poll shows him at 36%, says a campaign insider. Geno's polls shows him doubling his support in the last month, but still chasing the frontrunner. Martinez is in third. His last play is for Catholic Hispanics. He put up a TV spot quoting the Bible on how his first name, "Lemuel," originated. He does this while sitting on a log in a pond. It's either very weird or wonderful, depending your taste.

PREZ TO ARTESIA

Since we broke the story on President Bush's NM Primary Day visit we have been working to fill in the details. Several reliable sources Friday reported the Prez will make his NM visit at the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center at Artesia, in SE NM. The center trains border security personnel The U.S. Mexico border and how to secure it will be the subject of his talk there. The president will fly into Roswell Tuesday. Sen. Domenici will accompany him. On June 16th Bush will campaign in ABQ for GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson.

AUDITOR ARMIJO?
Jeff Armijo
Dem state auditor candidate Jeff Armijo is continuing to come under fire from the "progressive" wing of his party. At a forum Thursday night, a member of Armijo's family, say several who were there, more or less defended indicted ex-Treasurer Robert Vigil saying most of the things he allegedly did were motivated by the need to raise campaign cash. Armijo reports a $50 contribution from Vigil and was mentioned on FBI tapes as a Vigil political favorite.

But Armijo may lead the Dem ticket in the opposed races, say the experts. "He is tied to Vigil, but not tainted," explained one Jeff supporter. "He is also known as a standup guy with a lot of charm. He's very likeable. They say he's not a CPA , but wasn't (ex-Treasurer Michael) Montoya a CPA? Maybe voters don't feel that's too important after all," argued Jeff's admirer.

Tom Buckner of Rio Rancho, praised by the newspapers for his extensive bank auditing experience, has an MBA, but not an CPA. He is a relative NM newcomer and his campaign has not spent the kind of money to turn the tide and he has chosen not to aggressively attack Armijo. The Dem primary winner will be heavily favored in November.

DON'T FORGET MONDAY AT 5 P.M.

You are not going to want to miss our KANW 89.1 FM Election Eve Special. We'll have the stuff you can't get anywhere else with Dem State Senator James Taylor and R Senator John Ryan, plus Billy Sparks, who has seen and done it all in La Politica. Top NM Lobbyist Scott Scanland rounds out the panel. These guys even promise to throw in an "upset special" or two, so tune in Monday at 5 p.m for a full hour of primary analysis. Tuesday night on KANW we'll have continuous Election Night coverage starting at 6:30 p.m.

Thanks to Ladera Golf, Enterprise rent-a-car and the Bill Campbell Agency, Real Estate, for sponsoring this year's festivities.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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Sen. Adair
Talk about bad timing. Roswell GOP State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair was arrested in Roswell Thursday, just days before voters there decide one of the most hotly contested GOP state House primaries and one in which Adair is playing a major role. Here's how the Adair arrest was reported Thursday night by KRQE-TV's Dick Knipfing:

"Roswell police arrested GOP Sen. Rod Adair today for failing to appear in court for a traffic citation. Adair was stopped for speeding 85-miles per hour in a 55-mph zone in Santa Rosa March 17th. He was supposed to appear in court March 31st. When he didn't show up for two months, a warrant was issued. Roswell police picked him up, but before he was booked, Adair called the magistrate in Guadalupe county and had the fine paid."

An unanswered speeding ticket would normally be no big deal, but this incident comes in the midst of a very personal and heated campaign in which Adair has been front and center. It's the battle between Nora Espinoza and Mike Kakuska for the Roswell area House seat being vacated by the GOP's Avon Wilson. Rod has tangled with the local newspaper, The Roswell Record, which will endorse Kakuska Sunday, voiced automatic phone calls for Espinoza and plotted her campaign strategy. His arrest gives the Kakuska camp another round of ammo in what is expected to be a close contest.

Oilman Mark Murphy has donated heavily to Kakuska as he battles the breakaway R faction that in 2004 put up several legislative candidates against fellow Republicans around the state. Murphy has said he is considering seeking the chairmanship of the NM GOP next year, making the Roswell race one with statewide implications.

The contest has been the most expensive legislative battle of Primary 06', with Kakuska spending over $60,000. Despite his arrest, don't count on Adair slowing down his campaign pace. This race is turning into a must win for him as the Murphyites could mark him for a challenge in 2008 if they beat his candidate this time.

SENATOR JOE'S GOOD WEEK
Sen. Carraro
It's been a good week for NM GOP U.S. Senate hopeful Joe Carraro. But can it make up for the not so good weeks that preceded it? The good week consisted of endorsements from Carraro's hometown newspapers, the ABQ Journal and Tribune and money enough for radio spots. And in a first for the three way race for the right to take on Dem Senator Jeff Bingaman in November, there is GOP TV. Carraro made a last-minute $3,700 buy at KOB-TV, according to station records. Carraro would not say what other stations the ad would run on, but it was expected by other sources to include cable.

The bad weeks have been those where Carraro has been running on a shoestring budget and amid persistent chatter that Farmington M.D. Allen McCulloch is the frontrunner because he has raised the most money (about $350,000 says his campaign) and handily won the R's March pre-primary nominating convention.

The veteran ABQ West Side state senator raised only about $22,000 through the end of March. But he told me Thursday some money "has been trickling in" from a fundraising letter sent by former GOP vice-presidential candidate Jack Kemp, allowing Carraro on TV for a couple of days. It will be the only tube action in the contest which also features former Santa Fe city councilor David Pfeffer.

Carraro's best hope is a big showing in Bernalillo county where he is well-known and where about a third of the GOP will be cast in Tuesday's primary.

DR. ALLEN'S DOINGS
McCulloch
As for McCulloch, his campaign said the decision not to go to the tube was mainly financial. "This is going to be a very low turnout election. We have sent out a total of 11 mailings and we think we have done a good job in targeting those most likely to vote," offered McCulloch manager Mario Sanchez speaking from the campaign trail in Carlsbad, NM.

McCulloch is all mail, all the time. No radio, Internet or other ads. He hopes to cruise to a victory in his home county of San Juan in the Four Corners and also garner big vote totals in rural NM before heading into vote-heavy Bernalillo County where Carraro will make his stand.

As for Senator Jeff, his campaign reports that he is going to take a novel approach to his current $250,000 TV campaign. The commercials will run for at least several days after the primary, giving him the political airwaves entirely to himself, unless someone decides to copy his idea.

FINANCE REPORTS

The latest campaign finance reports from the state candidates were due Thursday and many of them were turned in, but the secretary of state's Web site, as of late Thursday, was still unable to post most of them. Big Bill's was up and revealed he raised over $550,000 in May, giving him well over $5 million in the bank. The AP's Barry Massey has more on that and what else was available as your blog went to press.

OUR ONGOING CAMPAIGN COVERAGE

We will blog here through the weekend and appear on KOB-TV's "Eye On New Mexico" at 6:30 a.m. Sunday morning to analyze the races with Dennis Domrazalski. (Set your Tivo's or VCR's for that one.) Monday at 5 p.m. we will have a one hour Election Eve Special for you on KANW 89.1 FM in ABQ. Our wall-to-wall Election Night Coverage with exclusive, early results will begin at 6:30 p.m. on KANW. Hope you can join us.

Don't forget to e-mail me your late-breaking campaign news as we take this one down to the wire.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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First, let's thank the pollsters for laying off of Primary 06.' Heck, all the races could be blowouts Election Night, but at least we won't know it until then. Ironically, what will likely be the lowest primary voter turnout in NM history is generating frenzied speculation among the insiders because no one really knows with any degree of certainty where key races will end up. So it was as we took to the airwaves of 50,000 watt 770 KKOB-AM in ABQ Wednesday to update our Enchanted Land on the final adrenaline filled days. Joining the political party were top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland, veteran talk show host and politico Mike Santullo and an audience of callers.

Topic A was the Dem race for attorney general, with Scott breaking the news that Gary King has pumped $100,000 from his personal checkbook into his coffers as he fights to resurrect his political career. The young and aggressive Geno Zamora out raised Gary in the last finance reports (The latest numbers will be released today.) and was already heavily armed for battle.

All three of us stated the obvious; that King is the frontrunner, but all agreed the race is still open. Compared to his rivals, Lem Martinez is underfunded, but the tough D.A. will not abandon ship and was given a boost in Geno country as the Santa Fe Reporter joined the New Mexican and endorsed the Martinez candidacy. Lem is also hitting the radio airwaves heavy to try to keep up with the massive TV buys Gary and Geno have up.

Soon the candidates will turn to the all important get-out-the-vote effort, and with forecasts for a turnout of 20% or less of registered D's and R's, that could make the difference.

THE RADIO DAZE

We were at ground zero for the radio ad wars Wednesday. During the commercial breaks we heard many last minute pitches. R Light Guv contender Sue Wilson-Beffort, unopposed for her party's nomination, was on and trying to generate some interest in the R Guv ticket, soon to feature J.R. Damron. GOP senate contender and ABQ State Senator Joe Carraro, hit with a script that had him using the time-honored phrase "Vote for me!" Carraro will also go up with a last minute TV ad to complement his endorsements from the ABQ Journal and Tribune. Allen McCulloch established himself as the early GOP senate leader by raising the most money and winning the R pre-primary convention. Insiders say he has sent out at least four mailers. David Pfeffer is also on the trail.

Earlier in the day, Carraro and McCulloch attended the ABQ funeral of Jerry McKinney, former press aide to the late Congressman Joe Skeen, where they shared campaign news with attendees. Jerry would be glad to know that La Politica was part of his final goodbye. Joe's wife, Mary Skeen, made the trip from Roswell to pay her final respects.

Back in the downtown ABQ radio studios, we heard Dem land commissioner hopeful Ray Powell, in a duel with ex-land boss Jim Baca, take to the airwaves to woo conservative Dems. And Pat Lyons, the incumbent GOP land commissioner, unopposed for the R nomination, but knowing history doees not favor his re-election, is wasting no time and was also up with a radio spot he voiced in his down home eastern New Mexico drawl.

WINNER GETS LUNCH

It was that four way D shoot out for the ABQ West Side State House seat being vacated by Harriet Ruiz that had the KKOB phone lines humming with supporters in this who-knows-who-the-heck-is-going-to-win race. Moe Maestas, Dominic Aragon, Pat Baca, Jr. and Dan Serrano are the duelists and if anyone can predict the winner and the percentage within three points, I'm buying them lunch. Even legislative expert Scanland, in the game for 25 years and whose livelihood is the Legislature, said a call on this one is like picking lotto numbers. You might get it right, but you wouldn't know why.

THE BOTTOM LINES

The best response from a candidate NOT getting a newspaper's endorsement comes from ABQ Public Regulation Commission hopeful Andrew Leo Lopez. In response to the ABQ Tribune endorsement of Derith Watchman-Moore, Lopez said, "Both Trib readers in my district already voted early for me!"....

The Primary Day NM visit of President Bush to tout his immigration plan, news of which we broke here yesterday, "will be in Roswell, or some place down south," reports a Republican congressional staffer. I was a bit surprised to hear that as the south is probably least supportive of the Bush plan, but he did carry the region big in 04'. You have to give the Prez credit for tackling an issue that is not scoring him many political points....

The best response to the "expert" analysis on the blog yesterday in the Dem race for secretary of state comes from Letitia Montoya's campaign manager. "There will be shock and awe when the VOTERS (not the "experts") of New Mexico select Letitia Montoya as the Democratic nominee for Secretary of State."

He won't get an argument for me. Every day is a shock covering New Mexico politics.

We're bloggin' straight through Primary Election Day, every day, with the exclusive insider news and analysis you can find only here. That means you Alligators and wannabes are working overtime too. E-mail me your stuff.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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