New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

In a prelude to what is expected to be calls for change in the direction of the New Mexico Republican party, a skirmish has broken out between current party management and ABQ GOP State Senator Joe Carraro.

Expectations are low, apparently very low, at the NM GOP, says Carraro, and that has him asking whether a recent news release from state headquarters actually bragging about the party's Election Night performance "is a joke email."

The news release claims "Governor Richardson and the state Democratic party failed to alter the political landscape of New Mexico." To which Carraro retorts: "Democrats failed to "alter the political landscape in New Mexico," because to alter it WE would have had to win.

"Are these people just trying to protect their butts or do they really think we are that stupid?" asks Carraro.

The news release also states: "Even with Richardson's millions and the national mood, local Democrats were unable to change the makeup of our state..In this election, we knew we were playing defense and we did it successfully."

But the news release does not mention the pre-election hopes of the GOP to pick up a couple of State House seats--it gained none--nor the epic and history making landslide of Big Bill--69%--or the massive 71% win for Dem Senator Bingaman which has many of the party faithful questioning the focus of the current staff and leadership.

GOP BRIGHT SPOTS

The bright spots for the GOP were the re-election of Land Commissioner Pat Lyons and Congressional Reps Pearce and Wilson. But, Carraro asserts: "Lyons and Pearce won on their own."

Carraro has been at odds with the party management since the June pre-primary convention when he said the party actively supported his Republican rival for the U.S. Senate nomination, Dr. Allen McCulloch.

Carraro and other R's claim the news release was part of an effort by the party to prevent major change and protect the staff jobs and consulting contracts that are at stake. But that may be wishful thinking. Allen Weh is leaving as party chair and many Republicans will be clamoring for a house cleaning to make the party more competitive and more appealing to independents and conservative Dems who are essential to any statewide victories.

Roswell oilman Mark Murphy and Bernalillo County GOP Chairman Fernando C. De Baca are both known to be weighing bids for party chair.

LEADERS PICKED

Meanwhile, the new GOP State House leaders we told you to expect when we blogged Friday were selected over the weekend.

WHO GOT IT RIGHT

It was the closest race in the history of the ABQ congressional district (and they are still counting the final votes), but there were still a few politicos who managed to call the apparent winner in the too-close-too-call Wilson-Madrid contest. Randy Romero, brother of Dem politico Ed Romero, was the most on-target among those I asked for pre-election predictions. In late October he called the race a "dead heat" with Wilson winning with a 50.5% margin. Republican Bruce Donisthorpe also came very close saying Heather would barely win, but she would do it with 50.8%. Wilson is currently ahead by 1,487 votes, or 50.35%. Provisional ballots are still being counted and her margin of victory may narrow even further.

SPACED OUT READERS

What wasn't a good call was running some email Friday morning that I did not take time to edit thoroughly. After a 48 hour marathon of election coverage and blogging, I should have packed it in Thursday night, but I didn't, resulting in a couple of errors from readers who were apparently as spaced out from all the action as your blogger.

One reader, citing preliminary numbers, said it appeared there was a significant number of voters who cast ballots for Governor and Senator, but not in the congressional race. While a lot of the Dems who voted for Big Bill and Senator Jeff went for Heather, there was no major drop off in people actually voting the race.....And another reader e-mail we published said the Democratic leadership will put Wilson on the "Sit and Pick Your Nose Committee," but while the appointment of committee members is formally made by the whole House, the choice of members is actually made by the political parties leadership. The point stands, though, that for the first time Heather will be in the minority.

Thanks to the other readers for correcting the erroneous readers, as even mega does of caffeine could not save me from a post-election delirium Thursday which started to develop while we were on the air at 3 a.m. Wednesday and still partying with Patsy and Heather.

Heather's campaign promised orange juice at dawn to celebrate victory, but the count was continuing when the sun came up. Her nervous supporters were probably making Screwdrivers with that O.J. to calm their nerves.

I finished my blogging and media interviews at 6 a.m. Wednesday. Watching the sun rise, I thought of things other than elections and politics. It was time for that and it was good.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

A new face will be leading State House Republicans come January. GOP Alligators say Rep. Tom Taylor of Farmington is set to be anointed as House Minority Leader by his fellow 27 House R's when they confab this weekend. Fiery Dan Foley of Roswell is expected to get the nod to become the new House Minority Whip.

The question of whether this leadership team will be more assertive than the previous one in dealing with powerful Guv Big Bill remains to be seen. Taylor, a former Farmington mayor, will replace retiring Ted Hobbs who was respected by his colleagues, but in his final years at the helm seemed to drift. The Governor's budget passed with few GOP squeals as hundreds of millions continued to pour into the Roundhouse via oil and gas royalties.

Taylor, 57, is a the ranking R on the House Taxation Committee and in private life is involved in real estate and investments, giving him the financial background to perhaps try to give more than lip service to "fiscal responsibility" in pork-engorged Santa Fe .

Not much of the billions in extra gas and oil royalty money has flowed directly back to taxpayers. Will Taylor start to make some serious moves--like trying to persuade conservative Democrats that tax rebates should be considered? Or will the R's simply keep their seats at the table, gorging quietly with everyone else?

As for Foley, there's no love lost between him and the Governor who even supported a write-in candidate against Foley in last Tuesday's election. But Foley's temperament and approach has not sold statewide, especially in the media center here in the Mid-Rio Grande Valley. If he can find a tone other than slash and burn and looks at a map of the entire state, not just conservative Chaves, he might potentially give Big Bill more serious headaches.

PATSY AND HEATHER
Wilson
It's going to be like a break-up around here trying to imagine life without a daily dose of Heather and Patsy. But the ABQ congressional race is sputtering to an end and the scenario I laid out yesterday for Wilson's eventual victory over Democrat Madrid remains unchanged. In fact, Wilson declared victory last night after 4,500 hand-tallied ballots were counted and showed her lead widening to 1,607 votes. It was Heather 104,575 and Patsy 102,968. Dem Party Chair Wertheim said Wilson's victory speech was "obscenely premature," but with only some 4,000 provisional and other ballots left to count, many of which will be disqualified, only a recount that uncovered major irregularities could change the result. Such recounts rarely do.

Wilson, who is escaping with her political life by the skin of her teeth, seems to finally be waking up and smelling the coffee on the no-end-in-sight Iraq war which caused her party to be tossed out of the majority in both the Senate and House and has Wilson demoted to backbencher. Last night she implied that she has been critical of the war directly to the president, but doesn't voice that criticism publicly because she does not want to lower the morale of the troops.

If that sounds like a statement built upon a Democratic landslide, it is. Whether she likes it or not, there's going to be a new Heather Wilson. The in-your-face defiance over Iraq by the GOP--some would argue arrogance--has now been tempered by the voice of the people. Like President Bush, Wilson has no choice but to listen and change or else the next tidal wave that comes will not spare her.

HEATHER'S NEW REALITY

Here is more on the not so pretty picture facing Heather from reader Dave Hawiger:

"If Congresswoman Wilson wins,...Albuquerque would have a minority party congresswoman who is in a swing district that will be a prime target for Democrats in the next election. She will be heavily pressured by national Republicans to follow the Bush line in order to delay or thwart Democratic initiatives. This will interfere with her independence."

A RED-EYED MARY

Mary Herrera has to be the most tired lady in New Mexico. Just take a look at the photo of the red-eyed Bernalillo county clerk and secretary of state-elect taken by Mark Bralley yesterday as she continued to preside over the counting of the remaining votes from Election 06'.

Herrera has become a human punching bag for partisans on both sides as the Wilson-Madrid count goes on, but she is following procedures laid out in state law. If the Wilson and Madrid camps think she is doing such a crummy job, why don't they come up with more volunteers to count the votes? For the citizen volunteers who are over at the warehouse doing the tough, thankless work of hand-tallying, please accept a thank you from this corner. As for Mary, she's earned her paycheck, and soon, a good night's rest.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

How ironic. The all-paper ballot system that New Mexico Republicans fought tooth and nail may be their saving grace as the vote count nears an end in the battle for the ABQ Congressional seat between GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson and Democratic Attorney General Patricia Madrid. When all is said and done it will be hard paper evidence backing up the final vote count, not electronic data, which has become so mistrusted because of recent election mishaps.

The count, political pros say, continues to heavily favor Wilson who late Wednesday had a lead of 1395 votes. (Heather--102,376 to 100,981 for Madrid.) There are potentially some 8,000 votes left to be counted, but many are provisional ballots and will be disqualified. Even if all 8,000 were counted Madrid would need at least 59% of them to catch Wilson. Not likely. Her best chance to get back in the race would be the discovery of additional uncounted ballots, or a counting glitch heretofore unnoticed. Perhaps those long odds held at bay any recrimination on the day after the day after Election Day.

BENCH WARMING

If Wilson goes on to take the prize, it will be worth less to her than in the past. For the first time she will be a "backbencher" or, as one baseball fan put it: "Heather will be riding the pine."

The new Democratic Congress will roll over her if she fights them on any plans to end the no-end-in-sight Iraq war, pushing her further into the corner of the unpopular President who she had to separate from during the campaign. She resisted any change in her position during the campaign, but a statement from conservative GOP Southern NM Congressman Steve Pearce may be a harbinger of where Heather is headed.

Pearce, an even more ardent backer of the war than Wilson, told me Election Night it is time to seek a "bipartisan" solution to the conflict which has united much of the nation in opposition. Pearce's new pragmatism, birthed in the Democratic landslide that has the Dems controlling both House and Senate, also extended to his relationship with the new powerhouses in the state's congressional delegation--Senator Bingaman who will replace NM Senator Domenici as Energy Committee chair--and northern NM Rep. Tom Udall who is in line for a subcommittee chairmanship after "riding the pine" since going to Capitol Hill in 98'.

"I have worked well with Jeff and Tom," Pearce told me. "I think our relationship will continue to be productive," said Pearce after seeing the results.

POLL WATCH

What happened with all those polls showing Madrid ahead of Wilson? Brian Sanderoff, whose ABQ Journal poll the Sunday before the election, showed Patsy with a 49-45 lead, made no excuses, saying he would like to have a "perfect record," but no one does. It was only Sanderoff's third miss in 20 years of Journal polling. His last poll did call all the other winners. The movement in the 1st CD race, explained Brian, came late and his poll concluded the Thursday before the election.

He also said Madrid's "communication skills," meaning the infamous brain freeze she had during the debate and which Wilson's campaign made hay of, may have played a pivotal part in converting some of Madrid's soft supporters to Heather's side on Election Day.

That reasoning was repeatedly cited to me. Another angle was the absentee ballots which Wilson's campaign said she carried with about 54%, despite an intensive counter absentee effort headed up by Big Bill's campaign and the Democratic Party.

"They just did not get enough of them in," said Democratic pundit Harry Pavlides, who believes the big Heather wins in rural Torrance county and the East Mountains were expected and were not the reason for Wilson's apparent win.

"If they had put more absentee votes in the bank, the debate issue would not have had as much impact and would have made up for any turnout shortfall among Madrid supporters on Election Day voting." Argued Pavlides.

LOSING GROUND

Some R's were touting the percentages that their down-state ballot candidates lost by Tuesday, but by Wednesday night things were looking uglier. With votes trickling in from around the state, Mary Herrera was getting 54% of the vote, up from 53% in the secretary of state's race. Gary King added to his landslide for attorney general reaching the 57% mark. Dem auditor candidate Hector Balderas was coming in with 55% up a point from E Nite. Dem Treasurer candidate James Lewis was up to 60%. Jim Baca was the sole Dem down-ballot loser, but he trimmed the loss margin from 5 points to four in late returns. Big Bill took it higher too, now getting a huge and record-setting 69%. Dem Senator Bingaman buried his opponent even deeper in the late returns, wracking up an astounding 71% of the vote.

GOP GRUMPINESS

A wide cross section of Republicans are lamenting the party's decision to lay down on the top tier races, saying it threatens to even further marginalize the state's minority party. They have a point. Never have a GOP Governor and U.S. Senate candidate running together suffered such punishment. And the spin on the down-ballot races has now collapsed in the wake of the latest results showing historically normal Dem margins. A further blow was the failure of the GOP to pick up even one House seat. Party leaders were expecting to nab at least one.

BOTTOM LINES

Former GOP NM Governor Dave Cargo remains the king of the quip. When he learned that heavily rural and Republican Catron county was the only one that failed to give a majority to Big Bill, the ex-Guv exclaimed: "The vote was 36 steers to 31 bulls."

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

You can only hold your breath so long. We signed off of KANW 89.1 FM at 3:30 this morning as the vote count in the squeaker of a lifetime sputtered to a halt with word that at lest 4,000 Bernalillo absentee and other out-of-county-ballots will not be tallied until later today, maybe longer. But indications were that embattled ABQ GOP incumbent Heather Wilson was in the drivers seat as she fought to hold off Democratic challenger Patricia all evening and saw the race start to break her way around Midnight when conservative Torrance county, the stepchild that everyone had ignored, came roaring in for Heather. By our count, Wilson was leading by about 1400 votes. Other counts had it a bit less.

All Bernalillo county results here. State results here.

Wilson told supporters she was looking forward to celebrating a morning victory over orange juice, but the lawyers may be the ones celebrating if Madrid gets this thing closer when the final unofficial count is know. Madrid, herself a lawyer, seemed to sense it and went to bed. Absent some major screw-ups--not an unlikely event--Wilson's lead will be difficult for Madrid to overcome, especially since Wilson carried the rest of the absentee ballots by 53% to 47%.

One hope the Heather-Patsy battle doesn't mimic the Iraq war and turn into a no-end-insight battle. But every vote deserves to be counted, and maybe recounted. Patience is not only a virtue in this case, but a necessity.

At the moment,it is the closest congressional race in the nearly 40 year history of the district. In 1980, Bill Richardson almost upset Republican Manuel Lujan. I was on Lujan's staff and recall that one was finally settled with a several thousand vote win for Manuel.

BILL'S SWEEP

There was no close call for Big Bill 26 years later. Last night he rewrote the history books, scoring a stunning 68% win over outmatched R John Dendahl. It appeared the Governor, who easily surpassed the previous Guv win record set by Jack Campbell in 64,' has won 32 of 33 of New Mexico's counties. Catron, as Richardson had predicted, was the sole holdout.

It was surreal as lobbyist Scott Scanland and I watched returns form arch-conservative Chaves, Lea and Otero fall into the Big Bill column. The Guv himself seemed a little blown away, saying it was one of those nights that gives pause. You don't often hear this chief executive say he was "humbled" but he did last night. He should be. With the enormous win come even higher expectations. He will try to deliver on them in the next session of the Legislature and when he explores a run for the 08' Dem Prez nomination.

DEMS RULE

There were few bright spots for the NM GOP last night. They were embarrassed by the 70% win of Senator Jeff Bingaman and were wiped out for all lower ballot races except land commissioner in which Pat Lyons rescued them from a down-ballot shut-out by handily beating Dem Jim Baca. The end came early as Pat landslided Jim in Bernalillo county and even the mighty Democratic north could not rescue the 61 year old ex-ABQ mayor.

The R's dumped hundreds of thousands into the secretary of state and attorney general's contest, but it was all for naught. Dem Mary Herrera was elected secretary of state with 53% and veteran NM politico Gary King landslided R Jim Bibb by 12 points. In fact, R Lorenzo Garcia did better than Bibb, who spent hundreds of thousands. Garcia managed a 47% showing against Dem auditor winner Hector Balderas. James B. Lewis led the down-ballot Dem team garnering about 60% of the votes to take the Treasurer's office.

The R's had hoped for a couple of pick-ups in the State House, but lobbyist Scanland and State Senator James Taylor tracked it until the wee morning hours watching Dem Don Whitaker going down, but seeing that offset by the defeat of R House leader Terry Marquardt. The House stays 42-28 Dem.

BOTTOM LINES.

It was E-Nite all right. Exciting, exhilarating and emotional, just what all of us in the political game live for. Watching history being rewritten in the Guv's race, the high drama of Patsy and Heather, and the big change in Congress to the Dems were the highlights. Everyone involved in the radio broadcast agreed it will be a night we will always remember.

I have said on several occasions that I hoped that whoever won the congressional race would do so by at least 2,000 votes so we would not have a polarizing and damaging fight, like the 2000 Prez race. We are not there as I write you near the 5.a.m. hour. Let's see what happens in the days ahead. Meantime, congratulations to all the candidates who put themselves on the line Tuesday. We sure enjoyed the show.

c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Campaign 2006 went out the same way it came in--with snarls and growls and a final slew of negative TV ads. It may mean a lower turnout than usual, commented veteran NM political reporter and KRQE-TV anchorman Dick Knipfing who has covered them all since 64'.

"It's a turn-off," he summarized in a late Election Eve conversation following an interview we did for his audience. And the first wave of stats may bear him out.

The AP reported 205,000 of us cast our votes early, compared to over 222,000 cast early in the 02' gubernatorial year. It wasn't just the negative campaigning that may have kept some votes on their couches, it was the utter lack of competitive races at the top of the ticket; it's only the hard-fought ABQ congressional race gives us a shot at attracting a 50% turnout or more in Bernalillo county.

There are 1,088,000 registered voters, but if we take out the 200,000 or so "inactive voters," We are left with 889,000 and a 50% vote would give us about 444,000 votes cast, less than 02' and about where we may come in. If you count the inactive, we may be headed for a turnout in the low to mid-40's.

SPECIAL INTERNET COVERAGE

For live Election Night coverage from the ABQ studios of KANW 89.1 FM, click on our NM politics logo on the right beginning at 6:30 p.m. Mountain Time. Thanks to Bruce Donisthorpe and his company, BWD Global, for providing support so we can bring our readers and friends around the state and nation this additional service. And another tip of the hat to public affairs firm DW Turner in ABQ for sponsoring election coverage.

FINAL HEATHER-PATSY ACTION

The final poll in the Heather Wilson-Patricia Madrid congressional battle confirmed the trend of the last several polls; Madrid has a narrow lead as Election Day begins. Survey USA, polling by automatic phone calls, had Patsy at 50% and Heather at 48% with two percent undecided. The ABQ Journal poll released Sunday gave Madrid a four point lead, 49% to 45% with six percent undecided. (Wilson released a campaign poll showing her ahead by two, 48-46.)

The all-negative-all-the-time campaign made dinosaurs out of those who were taught that you should close positively, actually trying to convince people to vote for you. No more. Madrid and Wilson were still attacking each other into the Midnight hour last night.

On my KANW-FM Election Eve special veteran NM journalist called it for Madrid "by a nose."ABQ GOP State Senator John Ryan said he is hanging his hopes for Heather on a superior GOP turnout and called it for her by three points. Lobbyist Scott Scanland said the trend is with Madrid and Dem State Rep. Al Park got real specific saying Madrid would win with 50.8%. Now that's what I call a barn burner. I had one prediction: If Madrid wins, it will be by a somewhat comfortable margin, meaning over 2,000 votes and we avoid a recount and the lawyers. If Heather takes the prize, it will be much narrower and we may not know the outcome on Election Night.

PAT AND JIM FINISH

In the other race still on the table, the fight for state land commissioner, Dem Jim Baca, trailing GOP incumbent Pat Lyons, made a late play for the Spanish North where his hopes now lie to overcome Lyons' expected big Bernalillo county win. Baca's wife, Bobbi, sent out an email to Dems statewide touting her husband's public service record and reminding voters:

"I’m Bobbi Baca, Jim’s wife of 29 years. We have two great kids, Justin and Noelle Baca. Both graduated from Valley High School in Albuquerque, both speak fluent Spanish. "

Lyons hit the mailboxes with a last-day flyer that scored Baca. "Politician Jim Baca talks, but he failed to get results. NM can't depend on Jim Baca."

TV COVERAGE

TV coverage tonight will be mostly crawls of the results across the screen with the network affiliates hitting it hard on their 10 p.m. news and beyond. At 9 p.m. in the ABQ market KASA Fox 2 will have an hour of coverage starting at 9 p.m. All the more reason to tune us in on KANW, as we will have exclusive early precinct results. I don't know how early, but believe they will be the first on the congressional race.

VOTING AND COUNTING

Voting in our Enchanted land will be mostly trouble free, except, of course, for big Bernalillo county, where troubles are par for the course. The best time to vote in the Metro is 10 a.m. or 2 p.m.

As far as counting the votes, the new state law allowed county clerks to start tallying the absentees on Thursday. That should help in Bernalillo where over 44,000 of them have so far been returned. But there will have to be hand tally of ballots that are rejected by the machines. That number may or may not be sizable. If it is a lot and Madrid-Wilson is close, we will have a long night. We will stay on the air as long as the Bernalillo county clerk is counting votes and releasing totals.

NATIONAL ACTION

We will also be on the edge of our chairs watching the national results tonight and see if we have a switch in party control in the U.S. House and/or Senate, which leds me to this reader correction from W. F. Peifer:

"On your Monday blog you state that "If the D's take over one or both houses of Congress tomorrow, don't think voters won't more carefully consider putting a Dem in the White House in 08' which would put them in charge of all three branches." How do you theorize the D's could take over the Supreme Court anytime in the near future?"

Your are correct, W. F. I meant to say the two chambers of Congress and the White House which adds up to three, but not three branches of government, just two.

MY BOTTOM LINES ON CAMPAIGN 06'

I am an optimist so I am thinking we will finish up on the air around 12:30 a.m. Wednesday. I am usually proven wrong. Whatever the hour, I will try to post for you some kind of semi-coherent analysis of what happened by 6 a.m.....

And now there is silence as we await the decision of the voters. Maybe you will like the results of their collective wisdom, maybe not. But acceptance of their decision is fundamental to a free society. Despite the ugliness and sometimes maliciousness of our particular era, the great Democratic experiment marches on unperturbed, and there's nothing negative about that.

See you on the radio.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Dem Whistle-Stop
With the stakes higher than usual for a mid-term election, the D's and the R's put their get-out-the-vote machines into high gear heading into the final hours of Campaign 06.' The R's dismissed an ABQ Journal poll showing ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson teetering on the edge of defeat and asserted that their own surveys say the race is a "toss-up" and vowed to fight to the end.

They found some encouragement in the last round of national surveys which showed the Dem advantage perhaps shriveling a bit. And Wilson seemed to take a swipe at the ABQ Journal poll on KRQE-TV last night when she said "one Democrat poll" shows her behind and a "Republican" poll has her ahead. She did not mention what GOP poll she had in mind.

On the ground, the GOP has paid special attention to 65 precincts in the ABQ area that voted for President Bush at rates of at least 65%. Those households have been deluged with mail and calls as the R's work feverishly to energize their base and prevent the D's from taking the ABQ congressional seat for the first time since it was created nearly 40 years ago. Also, insiders say over 90 volunteers have been shipped into ABQ by the national R's to wage the 48 hour ground battle on behalf of Heather.

The Dems were busy too, with Big Bill and most of the other statewide candidates on a whistle-stop train trip along the fabled Rio Grande with stops from Hatch to Bernalillo then over to Las Vegas. Today they go airborne, flying across the state in search of last-minute votes.

DIRTY TRICKS?

Allegations of "dirty tricks," par for the course in the final, nerve-wracking election hours, surfaced as Big Bill and Senator Bingaman claimed the state GOP was calling Hispanic Democrats to tell them--wrongly--that there had been a change in their polling locations for Tuesday. They planned on going to court to have a judge put a stop to the alleged chicanery. But blog photog Mark Bralley, a Republican, said he received a mailer from his party directing him to the wrong polling location. The truth is as slippery as an eel when the clock ticks ever closer to judgement day.

FINAL PITCHES

Back on the beat, Wilson was preparing to meet Senator John McCain at Eclipse Aviation this afternoon to further galvanize GOP supporters who are outnumbered in the district, but who often vote more reliably.

At Dem Patricia Madrid headquarters, one Alligator reported, they were flooded with volunteers Sunday morning anxious to canvass neighborhoods and energized by that Journal poll showing Madrid leading Wilson 49% to 45%, an unprecedented lead for a challenger.

BALDERAS AND BACA

Nerves in the Hector Balderas for state auditor campaign had more reason than most to be frayed. The auditor's race was the only statewide contest the Journal did not survey. Dem State Rep. Balderas was a late entry after Jeff Armijo withdrew under a shadow. But ABQ attorney Brian Colon, traveling with Balderas on the Dem train and heading into Bernalillo, said he "expects a good Election Night for Hector" because of his early TV buy and overall strength of the Dems. R Lorenzo Garcia went up with late TV, but it was only in the $10,000 range.

Jim Baca, perhaps the most imperiled Dem in the state this Election Eve, took out full-page color ads in the state's large newspapers, including a $10,000 pop in the ABQ Journal. His camp says the former land commissioner and ABQ Mayor is now resting his hopes on a dramatic drop in voter turnout on the conservative East side and an uptick in the Hispanic north.

But Lyons' camp, celebrating their seven point lead in the Journal poll, say Baca is going to be disappointed. "Many ranchers and farmers in the north support Pat who is a rancher himself. He will do much better up there than expected," maintained one ardent Lyons backer.

Word also came to your blogger that Lyons has bought El Paso TV to prevent too much of a beating in Democratic dominated Dona Ana county.

MORE TRAILDUST

Bernalillo county R's were working hard to shore up any weakness in their legislative roster, concerned that if a Dem tidal wave develops, it could put some of them on the endangered species list.

Dems were happy over the weather forecast for Tuesday--clear and 71 in the big Metro--and pretty nice elsewhere too. Snow or rain would hurt them them most because Election Day has become known as Democrat day since the advent of early voting and the predilection of many R's to cast their ballots by absentee or at early in-person sites. No weathercaster was predicting a tidal wave, but the political weathermen in the Dem camp were.

In just hours this latest dance of democracy is about to come to a screeching halt as Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico assume the role of the ultimate power brokers. May it ever be so.

READER WRATH

Sunday's blog on the Wilson-Madrid congressional race left "Tony V." an unhappy reader. He blogs in:

"You're assertion that it was her (Wilson's) refusal to assert her independence on Iraq that may do her in and that "she chose fealty to her President and party, not independence" is absurd.

"How do you figure that she showed "fealty to her President and Party" when she has always been strong on defense..? Also in the "her President quote" you reveal your liberal leanings, Joe. Bush is YOUR President. The reason Wilson is potentially going to lose is her weakness on conservative issues, not her weakness of not voting with the liberals on one of "the most pressing issues ever to face our nation."

Tony has point. I should have said the President's "policies." Of course, the President is President to all citizens. I disagree with Tony on his insinuation that Iraq is not one of the most pressing issues of the day. That is denial, but perhaps understandable as emotions run high before an election. Also, if Wilson loses it will be because she was unable to attract Dems and independents because of her Iraq position. Over 80% of R's are supporting her.

WEH'S WAY

With the final voting fast approaching, NM GOP Chairman Allen Weh comes with an analysis that drops the partisanship and emotion and sums up what is happening this cycle.

"With a healthy two-party system, you will have occasional changes--and in a healthy two-party system that's good," said the retired Marine Reserve colonel to the Journal's Jeff Jones.

Weh is recognizing what is actually the norm. Checks and balances are as old as the Republic. One party rule is an anomaly. If the D's take over one or both houses of Congress tomorrow, don't think voters won't more carefully consider putting a Dem in the White House in 08' which would put them in charge of all three branches.

Of course, Weh would say that NM also needs to have checks and balances and that at least one branch of our state government needs to be controlled by the R's to check excesses by the D's. (Treasurer scandal anyone?) It is his most powerful argument for change here, but the R's need unity to achieve it.

BILL'S PLAN

Big Bill cut through 60% in the latest Journal poll like a hot knife through butter. He came in at 65% to R John Dendahl's 24%. We've blogged about the Guv's hope to carry 32 of the 33 counties, and he just may do it. Lincoln, with 57% registered R's, could be a challenge as well as R dominated Catron. In the 64' landslide Dem Jack Campbell carried 30 of the state's then 32 counties and 60.2 percent of the popular vote.

Now you have something to keep you interested when you watch this race unfold Election Night.

NO REALLY LONG LINES?

My election watchers don't foresee disastrous lines at the polls in big Bernalillo county tomorrow. And they have good reasons for that forecast. It appears well over 50% of the vote will have been cast early and this is mid-term election, not a presidential one, dramatically dropping voter turnout.

In addition, unlike at the early voting locations, on Election Day voters will not have to wait while poll workers figure out which legislative district they are in and take several minutes to determine the correct ballot. Tomorrow when you go to your precinct your ballot will be ready to go, cutting down on wait time.

My experts do see line problems late in the day at some fast growing precincts.

"Areas around Cottonwood Mall on the West Side and in North ABQ acres where we have had big growth, could see some lines develop in afternoon drive-time," analyzed politico Steve Cabiedes.

Let's hope the no-huge-lines prediction here is the most accurate one of the election season.

ELECTION EVE AT 5 P.M TODAY

Cabiedes and pollster-pundit Harry Pavlides will be working for you Election Night as we count the votes on KANW 89.1 FM. They have created our early voting reporting system, so we expect to have results from key precincts and analysis of what they mean. It should give us a good idea on where things are before the big vote totals come in later in the evening.

Today at 5 p.m. we are going ot have a lot of fun with Campaign 06' as we sit down at public radio KANW with top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland, veteran NM journalist Sherry Robinson, GOP State Senator John Ryan and ABQ Dem State Rep Al Park for analysis and predictions of the major races. We have a full hour uninterrupted by commercials, so join us as we bring this campaign home.

Tomorrow night tune is in for all the excitement of Election Night. We kick it off on 89.1 FM at 6:30 and keep gong until they stop counting the votes. Rep. Park will be back for that along with GOP State Rep. Larry Larranaga, Sandy Buffett of the Conservation Voters of NM, politico Lenton Malry and lobbyist Scanland. We'll have Dem Chris Chris Catechis covering the Dems in the field and veteran radio broadcaster Jay Howard Deme with the Republicans.

WE WILL STREAM KANW ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB. COME HERE TOMORROW AND CLICK ON LOGO AND IT WILL TAKE YOU TO THE BROACAST BEGINNING AT 6:30 P.M.

Election Night coverage is made possible by support from PR firm DW Turner--"Strategies and Ideas that Win," New Mexico's Enterprise-rent-a-car, ABQ's Ladera Golf and by ABQ's Bill Campbell Agency, Real Estate.

We thank all of them for their support, as we do you. See you back here on Election Day!

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

There may be no end in sight to the bloody and unpopular Iraq war, but there is an end in sight for Heather Wilson. According to the final ABQ Journal poll, the four term 45 year old ABQ GOP incumbent U.S. Representative is about to be swept away by a wrathful electorate seeking change. It may not even be close.

Democratic Attorney General Patricia Madrid has a solid 49% to 45% lead over Wilson with 6% undecided. When the undecided are asked which way they are leaning, Madrid hits the magic 50% mark and Wilson moves to 46%. Pollsters do not expect the remaining 4% to vote. That would give us a universe of 96%, meaning Madrid may be positioned for a 52-48 win. A strong GOP turnout and historic patterns Election Day could trim that margin and keep the race tighter. However, at this point, the upset would be a Madrid loss, not a win.

The higher the turnout goes Election Day, the worse for Wilson. The lower, the better for her. More voters will mean more Democrats and more liberal ones. Heather is only getting 12% of the Dems, a dismal number. She scores 27% of Hispanics, up a bit, but not nearly enough.

Journal pollster Sanderoff has a strong record that is the last thing Wilson wants to hear about. In some 20 years, he has had the winning candidate in a major race placing second in his final Journal poll just twice. Heather can only hope she will be the third.

Not that Wilson can give up. There are still votes to be cast. She will bring in Arizona GOP Senator John McCain for a second time Monday to try to rally the GOP base one last time and get back in the race.

But McCain may be the wrong person. Once the epitome of independence from the White House, he is now associated with the don't-get-out-of-Iraq wing of his party. One wonders if that will change Wednesday morning.

WILSON'S WAGER

Ironically for Wilson, it was her refusal to assert her independence on Iraq that may do her in. Throughout her eight years representing the district she has called herself "independent" minded and, on occasion, even voted that way. But on one of the most pressing issues to ever face the American nation, she chose fealty to her President and party, not independence. The Dems absolutely hammered her for it, and it stuck. Big time.

If Wilson is velcro, Madrid is teflon. Iraq and its mounting casualty toll--105 in October alone--have made the charges leveled against Madrid appear like gnats on an elephants behind. The tragic deaths of young soldiers--now seen as a waste by the vast majority of voters-- trumped the many flaws in Madrid's record that Wilson began pointing out way back in July.

The political climate and the Journal poll say Wilson is history. If so, it could be this Rhodes Scholar's inability to understand history that will cause her political career to come to an ignominious end Tuesday night.

LYONS FINALLY ROARS

Pat Lyons
Jim Baca is a step closer to full-time retirement in the wake of the Journal poll showing him lagging incumbent GOP land commissioner Pat Lyons by seven points--48% for Lyons, 41% for Baca and 11% undecided. The Journal poll confirmed our earlier reports of tracking polls that showed Baca beginning to lose Bernalillo county to Lyons.

Is this race a done deal? Not quite, but Baca will need a lot of straight ticket voting from the Dems to get him in this one. He'll also need a strong showing in the Hispanic north. If that happens and GOP turnout also dips, Baca could still keep us up late. It is asking a lot and Lyons, who finally hit with powerful negative TV ads that Baca did not answer, may become the first Republican down-ballot officeholder to win re-election since we adopted four year terms back in 1990. But stay tuned to KANW 89.1 FM Election Night as we count the votes closely in this one.

All the other statewide races, according to the poll, appear safe for the Democrats. The secretary of state race is closest, with the R behind by six points, but projected voter turnout patterns show it finishing with a Dem flourish.

AROUND THE NET

Money poured into the attorney generals race in a big way in October. You can check that out and the highlights from the cash reports of the other statewide candidates here.

Which U.S. House candidate in the entire USA has aired more TV spots than any other. It may not surprise you to hear that it was Heather Wilson. New Mexicans have been diving under their couches to escape the ad onslaught from her and Madrid. Tuesday the ads go away and you get your life back, or at least your TV.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

In a congressional race that has been tighter than Willie Nelson's headband, there were some signs of loosening as we headed into the final weekend of Campaign 06. Nationally, it appeared the Democratic trend was continuing and perhaps gaining a bit of steam and there was no reason to think it would not be felt here where ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson and Dem Attorney General Patricia Madrid have battled for more than a year.

A variety of pundits and politicos were saying they see Madrid as the narrow leader and were waiting confirmation of their gut feel from the final ABQ Journal Poll on Sunday. Among them was KKOB-AM's Jim Villanucci, a Heather supporter, whose program I appeared on Friday and who is now saying he now sees Madrid in the lead by a couple of points. It was a viewpoint being echoed across La Politica, but few were willing to call this hard-fought race either on or off the record. Maybe that will change tomorrow, and we'll be here to tell you if it does.

I told the KKOB audience what to look for on Sunday: the candidate who is atop the Journal poll, and it doesn't matter by how much. That candidate has gone on to win in all but two cases in the past 20 years. Madrid was ahead of Heather in the mid-October survey and the smart money was betting that she will be clinging to the lead Sunday.

LAURA'S LOVE-IN

The GOP, the party of strong closes, continues to push hard, taking advantage of Madrid's debate missteps in TV spots and bringing in First Lady Laura Bush to rally the troops.

But for Heather there was no escaping the primary issue in the campaign. She was again asked Friday what she thought of the job President Bush was doing and again she refused to answer. In just two days the people will answer that question.

BACA VS. LYONS

Besides the congressional duel, the other big race in play is for state land commissioner between Dem Jim Baca and incumbent R Pat Lyons. Tracking data shows Lyons starting to move ahead in Bernalillo county and its suburbs, which he must if he is to offset the Democratic North which should perform well for Baca.

Rancher Lyons has planted himself in the metro trying to boost his lead here. Friday he joined with Lionsgate Entertainment and the City of Rio Rancho to finalize a land acquisition that will bring the well-known film company to New Mexico.

Meanwhile, Baca trying to win his third term as land commissioner since the early 80's, was basking in the glow of his moments with ex-President Clinton who chatted with Baca Thursday night at a Madrid rally. Baca got lucky and was shown with the ex-Prez in the closing moments of one of the late news broadcasts.

The race will likely be the closest one we cover on Election Night when we gather the gang at the studios of KANW 89.1 FM for continuous coverage starting at 6:30 p.m. Monday at 5 p.m. we'll have the Election Eve Special with predictions and analysis starting at 5 p.m.

SEALING THE DEAL

Big Bill will close out his campaign by attending a rally in ABQ's South Valley today and doing an old fashioned whistle-stop train trip Sunday. On Monday he will board an airplane for stops in SE NM. The Guv is trying to run the table and round up conservative votes in a region that would normally go heavy for R nominee John Dendahl.

Speaking of Dendahl, he was at the Laura Bush-Heather rally Friday, but television coverage of the event had neither him or GOP senate candidate Allen McCulloch anywhere in sight. The stage was strangely barren for a major political rally. Usually, all the major candidates are pictured behind the speaker, in this case the First Lady. Friday it was Wilson introducing Mrs. Bush and Senator Domenici (who is not on the ballot) sitting oddly alone behind her.

Maybe they planned this one differently, but it was a stark reminder of the GOP weakness at the top of the ticket and how lonely this fight has been for the four term representative.

VOTE--FOR THE ADS

The Wilson-Madrid race was staying almost exclusively negative on the tube as we headed into Saturday, as both candidates apparently feared going positive was too risky in the tight race. But there have been some humorous moments in the campaign. One we highlighted here was the "Sheriff" ad released by the Governor and which is now among the nominees for being one of the best of its kind in a national poll. You can vote on your favorite here.

After this campaign, more people may want to vote on the best and worst TV ads rather than the candidates who all look like Satan incarnate after being sprayed with nonstop mud pies.

We're bloggin' it all the way through. Back tomorrow with a special Sunday edition. I hope you can join me.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Madrid & Clinton
Bill Clinton warmed up a crowd of Democrats on behalf of congressional hopeful Patricia Madrid late last night, but many thousands more monitoring their TV sets for a live snippet of the ex-President's speech went to bed disappointed. The perennially late Prez arrived at 10:24 p.m. but did not disembark until 10:35, just in time to miss the news broadcasts of all three network affiliates. (Can you imagine the Madrid staffers watching the precious minutes tick away? I could almost hear cries of, "Storm the Plane" from my downtown perch miles away.)

Two of the three stations teased viewers at the top of the 10 p.m. hour with live reports and advice for the audience to stay tuned as Clinton's arrival was expected any minute. But it never happened. KOAT-TV managed to air a very brief shot of Clinton and Madrid walking from his jet at 10:35, but the money shot of Clinton on stage and hoisting Madrid's arm in the sign of victory--a possible emotional high point for her campaign--was, to put it mildly, a missed opportunity.

Spontaneous TV has been Madrid's curse this campaign. She fought tooth and nail to avoid more than one televised debate with GOP ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson, and the one she did resulted in errors that led to two hard-hitting TV spots Wilson is using against the attorney general to close out the campaign.

Some may argue that it doesn't matter; that Clinton's visit, televised live or not, will energize the Democratic base and let them know Patsy has the blessing of the Prez so dear to them; that the morning TV shows and the newspapers will pick up the slack. But that would be spin. The fact is that this campaign has been all about TV; millions have been spent on canned and negative spots. A prompt 10 p.m. appearance by Clinton would have put a long-overdue and positive tone on
this most negative of campaigns.

CLINTON'S DIVING BOARD

Photographer Mark Bralley manned the event for your blog. The retired ABQ policeman said he did a "cop count" to arrive at his estimate of a crowd of 2,000, and that was a good turnout for the hour. (The Journal sid 500 attended the event.)

He reports that Clinton told the party faithful, Governor Richardson and all the statewide Dem candidates that many voters here are "diving board voters" and afraid to jump. He said they know "things are wrong" but need some coaxing to change their habit of always voting for the R and urged those at the rally to persuade their neighbors to make the leap.

Heather will try to offset Clinton's appearance today as First Lady Laura Bush rallies the GOP base at a 3 p.m event at Journal Center in ABQ. The highly structured schedule of Laura will guarantee a timely arrival and heavy coverage on the early evening news shows. That tape will be contrasted with Clinton's visit, which to Heather's benefit will be cast in a much more partisan light.

In the battle of the big guns, score it for Heather.

WHO NEEDS BILL?

Dems may have been a bit downhearted that the Clinton event did not deliver all the punch it could have---maybe they should have told him it was at eight and he would have made it by ten--but they are not at all crestfallen about Patsy's chances of upsetting Heather. They point to political guru Larry Sabato's final ranking of the race in which he predicts Heather is a goner. And MSNBC Thursday was also calling the race a likely Dem takeover. The political community anxiously awaits the final ABQ Journal poll Sunday which will include surveys of folks who have already voted and provide the final snapshot before the final round of voting Tuesday.

OUR OWN BILL

Now it's $13 million. That is the incredulous sum raised by Big Bill since the start of his re-election effort and as reported by the AP's Barry Massey. $13 million!? The Governor will likely get over 60% of the vote Tuesday, but with that kind of money he may be raising the bar on those all-important expectations. After all, R Guv nominee John Dendahl has raised a mere $300,000. With that kind of difference, it will now be a shocker if the Guv doesn't poll comfortably past the 60% mark.

RYAN'S HOPE
Sen. Ryan
GOP ABQ State Senator John Ryan is one of the more pragmatic political observers you will find, and when I chatted him up recently in preparation for his appearance on my KANW Election Eve Special at 5 p.m. Monday on KANW 89.1 FM, he was down-to-earth about the R's chances in the big races, but said he sees a glimmer of hope for a couple of Legislative races that have him thinking that if the stars align just right, his party might be able to pick up more than the one or two seats that observers are forecasting, maybe even three or four.

He said to keep an eye on Dem Rep. Don Whitaker in SE NM who has been hit hard by his opponent for voting to approve drivers licenses' for undocumented workers. He also pointed to Dona Ana county where D Andy Nunez is in another close contest to hold his seat. Andy always seems to pull out, but it is usually close.

The race to succeed R Ed Boykin is another to keep on the radar, opined Ryan. He says D Jeff Steinborn has not yet closed the deal against R Scott Witt. And two Valencia county seats, especially the one being vacated by Fred Luna, has a good chance to go R with Jackie Farnsworth carrying the GOP banner.

Ryan says he sees Rep. Teresa Zanetti holding her seat, despite a tough challenge by Traci Jo Cadigan, and many Dem observers are now agreeing with that assessment. The Joe Stell seat in the SE is destined to go R, agree analysts on both sides of the aisle.

You may have to go all the way down the ballot to spot Ryan's possible ray of Republican light, but as a former executive director of the GOP, the lawmaker has a lot of NM experience and we'll be keeping close tabs Election Night on the races he has pinpointed.

LORENZO'S TV DEBUT

Dem state auditor candidate and State Rep. Hector Balderas has had a media free ride as his opponent, R Lorenzo Garcia, has been dark. But Garcia has come up with enough money now to make a small statewide cable TV buy and will go on the air today with this spot which hits Hector for not having a CPA, while Garcia does. Garcia received the endorsements of all the state's major newspapers because of his lengthy experience and that CPA certificate. Hector has TV spots up introducing himself to the public and if the polls have it right, they have been well-received.

AWAITING THE RETURNS

The margin of victory of some of the Dem statewide races might surprise some causal observers. But remember, there are no incumbents running for treasurer, auditor, attorney general or secretary of state. That hasn't been the case for eight years and some folks may be misreading the closeness of some of the contests coming through in various media, tracking and party polls. The public does not know these candidates well and in the polls the Dem contenders are not heading north of the 50% mark. But historically these races break strongly on party identification, unless a candidate has spent a ton of money.

The R's have targeted the AG's and secretary of state's race and say they have shaved the leads of their Dem rivals. But election after election we have seen the North report late with just huge margins for the Dem candidates. It doesn't mean it is going to happen again, but something to keep in mind as we watch the early returns come in.

WHERE WE'LL BE

We'll close out Campaign 06' in a variety of media forums in the coming days. Today (Friday) we'll stop by 770 KKOB-AM and visit on the air for an hour with Jim Villanucci at 4 p.m. Jim's been covering this one wall-to-wall for a month so it should be fun...Over the weekend, we'll be on all the other ABQ Citadel Broadcasting stations including KRST 92.3 FM at 10:30 p.m. Saturday and KKOB 93.FM and KMGA 99.5 FM at 6 a.m. Sunday.

On Monday, our KANW 89.1 FM Election Eve Special kicks off at 5 p.m. We'll analyze the key races with top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland, Dem State Rep. Al Park, R State Senator John Ryan and veteran NM journalist Sherry Robinson. Also Monday, we'll sit down with KRQE-TV anchorman and political junkie Dick Knipfing at around 4:20 p.m. for a final look at Campaign 06.'

AND ELECTION NIGHT!

Election Night will find us back before the KANW 89.1 FM microphones for our 19th year of coverage there. Scanland will join GOP State Rep. Larry Larranaga and Dem Rep. Park. They'll be joined by Sandy Buffett of the Conservation Voters of NM and lifelong Democrat Lenton Malry who will bring in early results as he has for 19 years. Dem Chris Catcheis will be reporting from his party's party and veteran radio man Jay Howard Deme is back with us to report from GOP headquarters.

A new twist for us this year is streaming the program on the World Wide Web. If you are in Washington D.C. or anyplace else outside of our signal range, the latest on what is happening will be available from your computer. Just come to this blog Election Night and press on the logo directing you to the coverage and then sit back and enjoy. (We'll do a dry run Monday with the pre-game show.)

It's going to be a very exciting and very long evening. We hope to get an early glimpse of the results from our spotters at key precincts in the ABQ metro area. State Senator James Taylor will have an early take on the South Valley. R Bruce Donisthorpe will man the computers and TV screens and help us track the important national action. At Midnight or 1 a.m. I will pause to cover the Madrid-Wilson race nationally for National Public Radio in Washington. I wonder if we will have a winner by then.

Our sponsors for the KANW public radio coverage are NM public relations firm DW Turner--"strategies and ideas that win"--Enterprise rent-a-car, the Bill Campbell Agency, Real Estate and Ladera Golf in ABQ, offering great golf and meeting facilities. Thanks to all of them for their support, and to you, my readers and listeners.

And the fun isn't over yet. We'll stay with you throughout the weekend, blogging Saturday and Sunday, so make sure to stop by.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Pete Domenici has seen his Republican Party have better times. Much better. But the state's senior senator has been as reliable as an atomic clock when it comes to showing up in the final days of a major campaign. There was a certain poignancy to his Wednesday ABQ news conference where he went before cameras to try to drum up some attention for the R's.

Pete is a reassuring symbol to the faithful, but like the passengers on the Titanic who grabbed at the priest's robes as the ship sank, he can only console, not rescue anyone from the wall of water that seems to be forming on the shores of America and which could birth a Democratic Tidal Wave Tuesday Night.

It's nothing Pete hasn't seen before. He surfed the waves of 74' and 94' and he's ridden strong torrents of Democratic water in his home state since 72'. I remember well the gubernatorial campaign of 1982 when the victory of Dem Toney Anaya was inevitable. Pete appeared at the Roundhouse in the final days with the R nominee, John Irick, and insisted, in the face of credulity, that John could pull it out. He has always kept the home fires burning, and the turnout drum beating.

The old sea captain still has a stomach for the rough seas, but this year he sails alone.

PREDICTING PETE

The analysts and Alligators are closely monitoring the election for its impact on Pete's fortunes. He long ago threw in the towel on the Guv and senate contests, but holds hope for GOP land commissioner Pat Lyons and maybe one more of the down-ballot races. He worked with the Republican National Committee to put the attorney general and secretary of state's contests on the radar. Polling shows likely Dem wins.

Republicans, and not a few Democrats, are concerned that if the senate goes Dem Tuesday night, Domenici, who has super-seniority and brings billions into the state, may consider not seeking re-election in 08.' Why become a renter when you've been a landlord, goes the reasoning.

Domenici has not concealed his desire for Heather Wilson to take over his seat and continue his legacy, but if Wilson loses her ABQ congressional seat, it will crush that dream and increase pressure on Pete not to abandon a run for an unprecedented seventh six year term.

Domenici would lose his energy committee chairmanship to fellow NM Senator Bingaman if the Dems secure the senate. They have done that switch once before, but speculators wonder if it would have a more deflating impact on Pete if it happened again.

Another issue facing the senator is the divisions in the state GOP and whether he moves to clean up the mess before he launches any re-election drive. He has played both sides of the feud, but if the party suffers a sweeping NM defeat Tuesday, he may finally have to assert direct leadership or else have a cloud hanging over his own campaign.

PETE AND BILL

There is also the Big Bill factor. As we reported in June, the Guv is serious about finding a candidate to run against Pete because he believes the move to dump J.R. Damron as the GOP Guv nominee and replace him with John Dendahl came out of Pete's office.

As a reminder that the hard feelings are still there, sources close to Big Bill are touting a recent Survey USA poll that shows Richardson finally surpassing Domenici in a poll ranking popularity. It shows Domenici is at 61%, down from 66% last month, his lowest since June 05'. Richardson is at 69% this month, unchanged from last month and an all-time high.

"We are gleeful about it," trumpeted a Big Bill acolyte.

New Mexico has a pretty good deal with a powerful Dem Governor and a powerful GOP U.S. Senator. It gives us entree to whatever administration is in power and ensures that we get our fair share--or more if we can swing it. In that regard, the clash between the political titans is not good. But this is a showdown that has been brewing for years. Whether it is averted or goes forward is one of the most pressing political questions facing the state.

ALL HEATHER, ALL PATSY, ALL THE TIME
Laura Bush
There's no give in the latest Zogby/Reuters poll on the Heather-Patsy down-to-the-wire fight for the ABQ congressional seat. While Zogby has Madrid at 53% to incumbent Heather's 44%--a big nine point lead--an insider tracking poll has Madrid leading by a mere point and a half and that's where most seasoned observers see the contest with the race nearing its final 100 hours. The early October Zogby had it for Madrid 50.4% to 40.3%. The latest one was taken Oct. 24 thru Oct 29. Brian Sanderoff comes with the final ABQ Journal poll Sunday.

Laura and Bill fans are gushing over the upcoming visits of the First lady and ex-Prez. Clinton appears tonight for Patsy; Friday it's Laura Bush for Heather, we think. Its' pretty easy to see Clinton, but KRQE-TV's Dick Knipfing reported last night that if you are want to see Laura you will be "expected" to volunteer for the state GOP.

The Wilson campaign said Bush is here to rally volunteers, not specifically for Heather. Got that? Is this another six degrees of separation Heather is trying to put between herself and anything Bush? Got me. But it all sounds pretty complicated if the goal is to get people excited about voting for you. If the goal is to avoid having the First Lady face a bunch of anti-war protesters, it probably works.

MORE TRAIL NEWS

Here is a good take on the closing media strategies of our two gals from James Brosnan of the ABQ Tribune D.C. bureau.

The weather forecast for Election Day remains as iffy as the outcome of the congressional race with some showers currently forecast for Monday and Tuesday in ABQ and the possibility of a storm of as yet undetermined intensity possible in the Democratic north. We'll keep on the weather watch till E-Day.

The latest in-person early voting stats in big Bernalillo county has the Dems outperforming the R's. 10,882 D's have stood in line--some of them long ones--to cast their paper ballots. 7,782 R's and 2,381 independents and others have done the same. And here is a good, nonpartisan take on how that absentee ballot war is playing out. You can check my Wednesday blog for the latest absentee stats.

TAKING NOTE...

Death has called Eddie Benavidez, a well-known ABQ attorney and, in the words of his son, Javier, "a rare, old school Republican Hispanic." Among his many accomplishments, Eddie was a founder and president of the NM Hispanic Bar Association and served on the National Board of Directors of the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund.

"He was a proud social justice oriented attorney, born and raised in New Mexico who loved his community," said Javier who works on the ABQ city council staff.

Edward Benavidez died of heart failure Monday night. He was only 58.

ONE FOR VICKIE

Under the headline, "You Take It Where You Can Get It," GOP secretary of state candidate Vickie Perea is pleased to have received the editorial board endorsement of the Farmington Daily Times. The endorsement cites Perea's interest in fixing the problems that have plagued New Mexico's election system.

Vickie had been getting shut out in the newspaper endorsement war with Dem Mary Herrera getting just about all of them.

SOME HUMOR PLEASE

Here is one of my favorite endorsements of the season. It comes from syndicated columnist Harold Morgan writing on the race for land commission between Dem Pat Baca and incumbent Pat Lyons: "Jim Baca is both a radical environmentalist and humorless." Says Harold.

Maybe Harold has a point. After all the negative campaigning, if a candidate can't make you laugh, give him the thumbs down. Hear that Baca? Brush up those one liners.

CARLA FOR CONGRESS?

Harold isn't the only one who has had it with the up-to-the-eyeballs negative campaign. "Inside the Capitol" columnist Jay Miller thinks those of us here in River City should cast our vote for KOB-TV anchorwoman Carla Aragon. Jay says he watched the TV debate between Wilson-Madrid and "the only times I felt truly comfortable were during the questions from Aragon, who is genuinely nice. It got me to thinking how much more I would like her to be representing NM in Washington."

Jay, I think Carla would make a fine congressperson too. But she'll never make it. She smiles at her guests, makes the audience feel comfortable and asks simple, direct questions.

Here is the attack ad columnist Ned Cantwell has ready to go:

"Carla Aragon--She smiles too much, panders to the electorate and can't ask irrelevant questions.

Carla Aragon--She'll get voters interested. Do we really need that?

This message paid for by Cynthia Izaguirre and Erika Ruiz."

We're with you for the stretch, blogging it straight thru Election Day and into the wee hours of November 8. Also, the KANW 89.1 FM Election Eve Special at 5 p.m. Monday and Election Night coverage starting at 6:30 and going all night long. Photog Mark Bralley has given up on Star-Trek re-runs and is on the trail with me and will have a report from the Clinton and Bush events. Well, that will probably be other-worldly too.

Join me here tomorrow and drop an email with your latest campaign news.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

No one can energize the Democratic base better than Bill Clinton and he will work to do just that when he jets into ABQ Thursday evening to help Patricia Madrid close out her tight fight with GOP Rep. Heather Wilson. Where the ex-Prez will appear has not been released yet, but it will be open to the public.

Clinton has always drawn large crowds around here and this time won't be any different. The one possible snafu is a too late arrival by Clinton. If he gets here after 10:30 he will miss the crucial 10 p.m. news broadcasts. But Clinton, whose perpetual tardiness has been a running joke, knows the stakes are the possible control of the U.S. House and it would be surprising if he came too late to maximize his impact.

For Madrid, the Clinton visit could be redemptive and wipe away unpleasant memories for her supporters from her unsatisfying debate performance and from which came yet another Wilson TV hit Tuesday. Heather tore into Patsy for saying on the KOB-TV debate that contributions from lobbyists wins them access to politicians.

Clinton's main impact will be on Dems and getting them fired up and out to the polls. In a race that could be decided by hundreds of votes, not thousands, it is exactly what top strategists recommend. The ex-Prez is making the rounds in a bevy of close congressional battles. Wednesday he is in Tennessee campaigning for senate hopeful Harold Ford. It appears he will be coming to ABQ from Tucson where he will push the turnout buttons in another House battle.

The Clinton visit will gather the entire Dem ticket, including his former energy secretary and U.N. ambassador Big Bill, who will be demoted to Junior Bill while Bill Clinton is in town.

Analysts speculated that besides Madrid, the visit could be most beneficial to Dem land commissioner candidate Jim Baca who is locking horns with GOP incumbent Pat Lyons. Any lift in Dem turnout in Bernalillo county would help thwart Lyons in the battleground county which Lyons must carry in order to offset Baca's probable Spanish North landslide.

DON'T FORGET LAURA

The announcement of Clinton's visit stole some of the thunder from the Wilson camp who earlier let it be known that First Lady Laura Bush will touch down here Friday to hail Heather. Unlike her husband, Laura polls better, appealing some across party lines.

NEUROSIS OUTBREAK!

Tracking polls, party polls and finger-to-the wind polls are circulating like a whirling vortex as they always do in the closing hours of a campaign. The Alligators have their eyes on all of them and believe the only major statewide race in play is the land commissioner battle. An extensive tracking poll shows none of the major GOP candidates yet moving forcefully ahead in Bernallio county as they must. As usual, undecided remain high in these races and will be mainly determined by party registration which overwhelmingly favors the Dems with 49% of the state's registered voters.

The lack of competitiveness of top tier Republicans for Governor and U.S. senate puts a damper on the hopes of the lower tier contenders. They would need significant ticket splitting to win in a year when analysts say straight Dem party voting may be significantly higher than usual. Also, pollsters say turnout will be lowest in the most conservative area of the state--the south--blowing more wind in the face of the down-ballot GOP hopefuls.

Still, R's have made inroads from the old days when 60% plus Democratic victories on the down-ballot races was routine. The insider track has Dem Gary King at over 50% and his GOP rival for attorney general, Jim Bibb, sitting in the high 30's, positioning King for a victory. R secretary of state candidate Vickie Perea, up against Dem Bernalillo County Clerk Mary Herrera, has spent heavily on negative mail, and now TV, and appeared to halt Herrera's earlier momentum in big Bernalillo county. But Herrera Tuesday went up with a TV response to stop any bleeding. She has been twice elected here by huge margins and will do well in the Democratic North. Dem Treasurer candidate James B. Lewis is on the traditional trajectory for a statewide Democratic victory and Dem auditor candidate Hector Balderas has pulled ahead of Lorenzo Garcia in Bernalillo county after buying TV time.

WHERE WE HEADED?

Based on the latest polling, history and assessment of the campaigns, all the Dem statewide candidates, excepting Baca, are poised for wins. Bad Election Day weather in the north would be the most likely event to tighten the races. In 1986 R Hal Stratton edged out his Dem attorney general foe when a big snowstorm struck there. But Stratton did very well in Bernalillo, not a circumstance that seems in the offing for the R's this year.

The last ABQ Journal poll of the season is being conducted this week with results to be released Sunday, giving us our final trend lines going into Election Night.

WE'RE COUNTING EM'

Besides hysterics over the polls, the usual cat fight over who is doing best in absentee balloting is underway. The latest numbers in Bernalillo county show Dem Ballots returned total 6,701 and GOP ballots returned at 7,058.

Total Dem absentee ballots issued in big Bernalillo thus far are 24,740 and 23,254 for the R's. (9.8% went to independents and others.) The GOP is pleased with its numbers, but they fret over the low return rate, about 30% for them and 27% for the Dems. Will many not return them, or are they stuck in the snail mail? Or are R's just not that enthused about voting this year? (The D's have never been champs in absentee, counting more on the actual Election Day vote.) We shall see when the final count is released.

Polling has showed the Dems, who outnumber the R's by 39,000 in the 1st District, sticking to Madrid. If that is reflected in the absentee voting, Wilson will not be able to count on them putting her over the top as she has in the past, no matter how many R's end up voting.

Another item to note is the kind of voters marking the ballots. A Dem insider reports: "As of late last week, of the individuals that requested absentee ballots in Bernalillo county, about 40% of the Democrats are presidential year voters and not mid-term voters. For Republicans it was only about 25%. So unlike the Republicans, our vote-by-mail program is boosting unlikely Democrats and getting them to vote."

If the Dems end up not scoring better in absentee ballots, some serious questions will be raised about all the money spent on the program.

MORE FRAYED NERVES

This being the week of nervous breakdowns and Prozac overdoses, even more skittishness is being expressed. This time it's over those long lines at early voting sites in the ABQ area. Voters are waiting up to several hours to cast their votes using the all-new paper ballot system. Some of them are walking away without voting. Are most of them D's or R's? Ask the worry warts.

The all-paper system is the cause for the lines, not a huge surge in voter interest. It takes longer to mark the two sided ballot than working the touch-screen machines that were previously in use at the early sites.

All the worry over the insider baseball issues will form the foundation for the blame game sure to follow in the aftermath of Campaign 06'. Unlike predicting winners and losers with certainty, everyone can call that event with 100% accuracy.

Election Night coverage starts at 6:30 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM, anchored by your blogger. The pre-game show is at 5 p.m. November 6 on the same station. Please join me for all the excitement of Campaign 06'.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author