Monday, February 18, 2013Berry Enters Race As Storm Clouds Hover; Weekend Begins To Shape '13 ABQ Mayoral Race; Our Coverage And Analysis, Plus: Large Swath of Votes In City Special Election Being Disqualified By City; Court Challenge To Come?
That being said, that friendly press did a big stretch to put a positive spin on the Republican Mayor's tenure, saying in their story of his announcement: . . .The. . . economy in ABQ. . . doesn't seem to be enjoying the same level of recovery experienced by some cities in the West... What "recovery?" We're bleeding jobs at a level not seen in the lifetimes of most folks who hang their hats around here: The Albuquerque metropolitan area lost 2,300 jobs in the 12 months that ended Dec. 31, marking 13 consecutive months of year-over-year negative job growth rates, the New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions said. That's not a recovery. That's a recession. More facts: The four-county area (Bernalillo, Sandoval, Valencia and Torrance) has been in near-constant recession for four years and now has as many jobs as it did in 2004, according to the department’s monthly newsletter... And then there's the news that really hit everyone in the gut--that NM ranks in the top five places people are moving away from. These will be two key emotional triggers that will give life to the coming campaign. (The third being the epic mess at the police department which is under federal investigation as well as the dispute over the city's crime rate under Berry). These are developments that are changing the fundamental nature of our city and a warm smile and a nice write-up on the front-page can only keep them at bay for so long. THE OPTICS  What the kids these days call "the optics" were a mixed bag for Berry's announcement. He put up a well-produced 60 second spot and his web site is attractive and easy to use. They use a picture of Berry from '09 with the Sandia Mountains as the backdrop. The campaign slogan is "Common Sense Leadership for ABQ."The Mayor, a good conversationalist, also did a series of sit down media interviews at a local restaurant. They were of the mild-mannered variety as they often are when a singular reporter faces a political figure. Things can get tougher and riskier in a news conference format. But you can't control reality. On the very day Berry made his announcement the front page of the paper splashed the news of a city cop who was involved in a an accident that claimed the life of a 21 year old woman. There is a great deal of mystery surrounding the tragedy and the story was accompanied by an editorial questioning the handling of the incident. It was one in a long series of police mishaps that will haunt Berry in the campaign--even after Chief Ray Schultz departs as he is expected to. It calls into question the competency of that easy-going personality that Berry presented on the opening day of his campaign. Is it too easy going? You can say you love the city, but you still have to lead it. THE ELEPHANT
Our analysts say that opens the door to big money coming in for this mayoral campaign--money like we've never seen before. They expect Berry's campaign to raise a decent amount of cash--certainly more than the $362,000 he would get if he publicly financed--but they say the big money will likely come in as it did in the recent legislative races--via a Super PAC. Jay McCleskey, who is the main political operative for both Governor Martinez and Mayor Berry, ran the legislative Super PAC Reform NM Now against the Dems, spending some $2 million. Expect him to do the same in the mayoral race. The wife of Jay buddy and political consultant Adam Feldman held the title of campaign manager for Berry's 2009 run. If Adam manages the campaign this time, you have Feldman handling the mayor's campaign money and Jay running the Super PAC. The law says a Super PAC can't coordinate its messaging or spending with a campaign (Hey, stop laughing...). Donors can give as much as they like to a Super PAC. One selling point McCleskey could use in raising money for Berry--if you give to the mayor you are also helping the Governor, so pony it up. It gores without saying that all this would mean another big payday for McCleskey. (Oh, go ahead Jay. Start shopping to the press and public again that bizarre list of alleged infractions of bias and faulty analysis we've committed over the years. Don't worry. We'll get it all right for you when we become Governor Martinez's press secretary--even if we do have to replace Heath Haussamen. Anyone remember him?). DAYS OF DI There's really only one other big shoe to drop in this '13 mayoral race. Will former Lt. Governor Diane Denish get in? Newsman Peter St. Cyr reports that if she does take the plunge she will follow Berry in bypassing the city's public finance system and raise money privately. She is also a Democratic candidate--perhaps the only one--who could see a Super PAC formed on her behalf to combat the one we anticipate for Berry. (Could Dem consultants Dave Contarino and Amanda Cooper --the "anti-Jays" who performed well against him in the 2012 legislative races--be back again? ) THE FIRST CASUALTY The first casualty of the mayoral campaign is the aforementioned public finance system. It is too restrictive and perhaps an anachronism in the era of the Super PACs which were let loose by a controversial US Supreme Court ruling. Even attorney Jason Marks, a longtime advocate for publicly financed campaigns, says ABQ's system is broken. He agrees that requiring over 3,600 individual $5 donations to qualify for public financing is too onerous: Joe, Your analysis that the number of $5 qualifying contributions needed to get public financing for the Albuquerque Mayor's race is "a very high hurdle" is correct. On a proportional basis, it takes far fewer $5 contributions for campaigns run pursuant to the state's publicly financed election statute. Public Regulation Commission races take approximately 280 contributions and statewide judicial races took 1,166 in 2012. Also, the state allows a much longer period to collect the contributions... It's time to reduce the Albuquerque municipal requirements to a more reasonable level. The current excessive requirements are preventing otherwise viable candidacies for both Mayor and council. You could cut Albuquerque's requirements in half and still have a tough threshold that would keep frivolous candidates out. And give them another couple of months to collect their contributions. Think you pretty much nailed it, Jason. Candidates have an easier time of making the ballot than qualifying for public financing. They have until April 28 to get 3,000 petition signatures from registered voters to be placed on the ballot, but only until Apri1 to get the 3,600 $5 donations necessary to win public financing. OTHER CANDIDATES
Dinelli released the first paid media of the campaign, a radio spot that goes on the attack against Berry: During a 20 month period, Albuquerque had 27 police officer involved shootings with 17 fatalities. The Albuquerque police department is now being investigated by the Department of Justice. Albuquerque had a zero job growth for the last 3 years, and unemployment amongst Hispanics was twelve percent. We need a new direction and we can do better. Former ABQ first lady Margaret Argon de Chavez picked up petitions and tells us she will see if she can create some momentum for a serious run. She is the ex-wife of former three term ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez who Berry beat in 2009. She works for the state's Children Youth and Families Department as a development trainer and has been there eight years. She has worked in real estate and says the city is dead when it comes to business development. Because Margaret is thus far the only woman and Hispanic surnamed candidate in the race, her progress will be closely monitored by potential supporters of Denish. Jay Flowers is a 30 year old who works in office support for a law firm. He also picked up petitions at the city clerk's office Saturday. CALL THE COURT Someone get Sam Bregman on the phone. There's a court case waiting for him. A real humdinger. The ABQ City Clerk says so far over 13 percent of the ballots in the city's special March 11 mail-in election have been disqualified. You read it right--a whopping 13% of voters are being disenfranchised only because they forgot to sign the envelope. The clerk says she has no plans to try to rectify the situation, other than responding to voters who call in to check to see if they signed their ballots. Mayor Berry and the asleep-at-the-wheel city council need to protect the rights of everyone to cast a ballot. If they don't, that's why we have lawyers like Bregman and the like. (Bregman is currently running for chairman of the state Dem party). The election is over a measure that would increase the percentage of votes needs to elect the Mayor and city councilors without a run-off from 40% to 50%. Berry and the Republicans are against it. The Dem Party is for it. Can't we have a fair fight, Mr. Mayor? How about getting those ballots counted and avoid running up a big city legal tab to fight against our own citizens whose precious right to vote is being taken away from them on a technicality. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2013 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, October 09, 2013Behind Berry's Blow-Out; We Peel The Onion On His Huge Win, Ponder Its Impact On The '14 Cycle And Analyze The State Of The City; It's All Next From New Mexico's #1
The obvious plus side for Mayor Richard Berry was his startling victory margin in a Democratic city. He garnered 67.91% of the vote to Democrat Pete Dinelli's 28.65%. Republican Paul Heh eked out 3.13%. Before now, no ABQ mayoral candidate had ever exceeded 50% of the vote in first-round balloting since we adopted the modern form of government in 1974. (Complete election results here.) The not so pleasant side for Berry was the crash in voter turnout. It dropped to 71,000 from 83,000 when he won his first term in 2009. It was the lowest number of votes cast for ABQ Mayor since 1977, according to our records, and was less than 20% of the 364,000 registered ABQ voters. UNM political scientist Gabe Sanchez was joined by our analyst and pollster Bruce Donisthorpe in pointing out that such a low turnout means the electorate was older, more conservative, more affluent and more Anglo than the average Duke City resident. And that's a recipe for GOP success. Be that as it may, there was no denying the rout, even if former Lt. Governor Diane Denish and 2010 Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish told our KANW 89.1 FM audience that she doesn't see the election as signifying trouble for the Dems in 2014 when Governor Martinez will seek re-election. But that was a minority view. Former Democratic City Councilor Miguel Gomez warned that the huge Berry victory is only the prelude to bigger Republican plans to not only re-elect Susana but to take over the state House. In the aftermath of Berry's sweeping victory, that did not seem like an idle threat. Gomez and other analysts said the crash in turnout played right into the mayor's hands and that the same strategy is on tap for the '14 cycle. Declared Gomez: The Republicans are taking a pass on fielding strong candidates against Senator Udall and ABQ Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham because they want to keep the turnout down among Democrats. We got a very clear picture in this ABQ mayor's race on what that could mean for Governor Martinez and the key state House races. In losing, Dinelli rightly cited the turnout collapse as a chief reason for his landslide loss, but his overall strategy was criticised by veteran politico Steve Cabiedes: The Dinelli campaign tried to cover too many bases at one time. It was difficult for people to latch on to the candidacy. Also, he spent way too much on TV and should have spent more on field operations. Former BernCo County Commissioner Lenton Malry said Dinelli should have loosened the purse strings earlier and bought some TV time over the summer to let voters know about him. He argued that it could have shrunk Berry's winning margin. Dinelli did not start his media buy until September. PRELUDE TO '14?  Former ABQ City Councilor Greg Payne, who nailed the outcome of this election with his prediction that Berry would get 67% of the vote, gave credit where credit is due--to Berry's mostly sure-footed campaign presence and to the strategy devised and implemented by his political consultant Jay McCleskey, also known as the "Shadow Governor." Payne opined: Jay has intimidated and bullied the Democrats. The huge drop off in Democratic turnout in the city election says it all. Until the Dems answer him with a political hit man of their own, they are wandering in the wilderness. Berry, Susana and Jay also have a lot of friendly media behind them. If Democrats don't take a lesson from this disaster for the '14 cycle, then they are brain-dead and the state House will be next to fall into Republican hands. The recriminations will continue in the weeks ahead, with Democratic Party Chairman Sam Bregman among those taking hits and perhaps feeling heat to professionalize the Dem operation to make it competitive with the R's. The Berry blow-out may never be repeated again, but for a beleaguered Democratic Party once is more than enough. BEING BERRY Don't underestimate the likability factor. President Obama had it in 2012 when he faced an economy in trouble but managed to capture the win. Now Berry, also faced with a troubling economic picture, was able to keep it from blemishing his own nice guy, approachable image. History will remember the Berry win for its totality, but will it remember his first-term mayoralty? Not really. He is a caretaker, taking no bold steps but putting a friendly face on troubled times. As Lenton Malry on KANW put it last night: "There is a large swath of the electorate who want a Mayor who does little. Berry is their man." An often obsequious press and a disemboweled opposition are other key factors in Berry's political success. INCUMBENT POWER We've re-elected our last two Governors by big margins and Marty Chavez was easily re-elected Mayor of ABQ in 2005. Now Berry has also easily secured a second term. The fund-raising advantage and name ID of the incumbent can't be underestimated. It is harder than ever to oust them. Chavez was seeking a third term in 2009 and that was too much, but second terms? NM and ABQ voters seem more prone to go along. OUR MOJO
We think that even Jay McCleskey would agree with that. The city has lost its mojo. There are multiple reasons for that and most of tbem can't be blamed on the Mayor. The chipping away at our federal funding, the failure to diversify our economy, the flight of our bright, young people to greener pastures and the rough-edged city we've become as exemplified by the TV series "Breaking Bad" all remind us that 21st century ABQ is on a much different course than yesteryear. Berry's optimistic '"the glass is half full" message and his constant encouragement that we believe "things are getting better" is welcome to the sliver of the electorate that showed up Tuesday. And we're sure McCleskey honed in on that in the focus groups he used to craft the Berry message for a low turnout election. Diane Denish maintained on KANW that we have become victims of our own low expectations, that we rejoice over a call center announcement, even as the city is depopulated of high-paying jobs. But what's to be done? The national and global forces at play seem to demand too much of anyone--even the most determined. It makes Berry's world view that past glory is soon to return seem as welcome as the return of spring after an especially bitter winter. Berry's Pollyannish poise and McCleskey's unapologetic, bad-guy anti-intellectualism give desperately needed cover to the shrinking ABQ business and media aristocracy. "We're not Detroit," they exclaim, as if the avoidance of disaster is the definition of success. The Mayor opted out of an interview with us last night, as did GOP State Rep. Larry Larranaga and GOP City Councilor Brad Winter. Is this a case of puppets not wanting to offend their puppeteer? Or a disdain for honest inquiry? Or both? DEM SUNSHINE
Arnold-Jones, appointed by Mayor Berry to fill a council vacancy, slipped just below the magic 50% mark that would have seen her elected. The bean counters said she failed to take the outright win by about 75 votes. Complicating the picture for her is the proposed referendum on restricting late term abortions. It appears that it will now be an in-person election--not a mail-in--and held the same day as the council run-off. Pro-choice groups in the Dem dominated district can be expected to put on a full court press--as will anti-abortion activists. That muddles the turnout outlook for Arnold-Jones. Some wondered out loud if there will be GOP machinations to move that abortion vote to another day or delay it. They noted that GOP Councilor Trudy Jones is already trying to stop the abortion referendum from going on the run-off ballot. That Gibson was able to hold Arnold-Jones below 50% was largely a result of the ABQ firefighters union and other Dem interest groups choosing to stand and fight. Analysts Payne and Cabiedes noted that at some District 7 polling places lines formed in the afternoon rush hour--a testament to their devotion. What if that had happened in the Mayor's race? They wondered. THE MEDIA Then there was the tiresome ass kissing of Chris Sanchez, Mayor Berry's flack, congratulating reporters on Twitter (KRQE's Alex Goldsmith, KOAT-TV's Tanya Mendis and the ABQ Journal's Dan McKay among them) on the "thorough" job they had done covering the campaign. That would have been taken as an insult back in our days on the beat--or at least hidden from public view. Hopefully, this new generation realizes the game being played. If not.... Here's the deal. If you want to be a real reporter and not a star or starlet, you are into ass kicking--not getting your ass kissed. (Yeah, Chris, nothing personal. Call me for coffee if Jay says it's okay). SECOND TERM OUTLOOK  Mayor Berry outlined no grand strategy for his second four year term that will commence December 1. Speculation immediately started about his future political plans, but it seemed premature. Meantime, he faces some immediate challenges:Berry enters a second term in office to face mounting criticism from the city’s police and fire unions. Leaders of both unions campaigned on street corners on Tuesday claiming that public safety is at risk under Berry’s administration. “We haven’t had the leadership in place to say we’re going to take care of public safety first, to its full extent,” Diego Arencon, President of the Albuquerque Area Fighters union said.By next June, he said cost of living allowances will change, which could cause Albuquerque firefighters to seek employment elsewhere.Leaders of the police union said Mayor Berry has failed to adequately address recruitment and retention of officers. But even more than that there is the outcome of the federal Department of Justice civil rights probe of the ABQ police force and the still anemic ABQ economy. What surprises will they deliver? Mayor Berry, Governor Martinez and McCleskey were spotted hanging out at the ABQ Uptown Sheraton well after the election results were in and the hoopla had died down. They had reason not to relinquish the moment--they had scaled the peak in grand style. Will there be an effective challenge to their ownership of that land or are there even more mountains for them to conquer in the face of a muted opposition? ELECTION NOTES Dem City Councilor Ike Benton easily defeated Republican Councilor Roxanna Myers last night in the ABQ North Valley council race. That means the council is now controlled by the R's 5 to 4. If Arnold-Jones were to lose to Gibson the Dems would take control on a 5 to 4... All 10 bond issues on the ballot passed easily--especially the one for storm sewers. Do you think the wild and wet summer weather season may have had something to do with that?.. Dem consultant Harry Pavlides wins the prediction contest on turnout. He nailed it--nearly exactly--as he predicted 71,000 votes would be cast... Congratulations to Mayor Berry and the victorious city council candidates. We wish them well as they lead our beloved city into the next four years. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2013. Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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