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Thursday, September 12, 2024

MLG: An Appetite For Philly Cheesesteaks And Power; She Makes The Official Spinner List For VP Harris; Is The Job List Next? Plus: Heinrich Is "Safe" But There's A Small But, And: Helping The Journal  

You Know Who
Emerging buoyantly after the debate, Harris’ aides and surrogates came bearing a clear message: They wanted another face off in October. “Bring it on!” said New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, a Democrat. “She should do a second debate.”

Our Governor was among the official spinners for VP Harris at Tuesday night's debate which makes for more chatter about her being on the list for a plum position in a Harris administration--should it come to pass.

Her role at the Philadelphia debate was more than honorific. Spinners are assigned to media from all over the map and they have to know their stuff and be articulate. Even her critics admit that this Governor--unlike her predecessor--is fearless when it comes to the national spotlight and media. For her an appearance on Face the Nation is as routine as brushing her teeth. And that's a plus for little 'ol New Mexico.

As pictured, the Governor fueled up on an iconic Philly cheesesteak sandwich before fulfilling her task of praising Harris and dumping on Trump.

Her appetite for political success is equal to her zest for that cheesesteak. She's been elected Bernalillo county commissioner, a US congresswoman and two two terms as Governor. But she seems determined to fill out that impressive resume with something--who knows what--in DC. 

Her pick as a Harris spinner all but shuts the door on speculation that the VP's camp would leave MLG at the altar as she was by the Biden administration when she came squeaky close to getting a cabinet post. 

But her future depends on Harris winning. That means you'll see the Guv chowing down on all kinds of local delicacies offered in the battleground states while the green chile stash in the Mansion freezer remains mostly untouched until after November 5. 

SAFE. . .BUT

Checking in with University of Virginia pundit Larry Sabato, we find him ranking the Heinrich-Domenici senate battle as still "safe" for Heinrich but with a small caveat:

Sen. Heinrich has been running aggressively against Nella Domenici, daughter of the late former Sen. Pete Domenici, suggesting he is taking her challenge seriously in a blue-leaning state. This race seemed to come on the board a bit at the tail end of the slump that would eventually drive President Biden from the presidential race, and the general belief among sources we talked to is that this race might have become highly competitive if Biden had stayed in and the overall Democratic position had not improved. We’re watching it more closely than your average Safe Democratic race, but it remains in that category. 

Heinrich
While Sabato and other pundits believe Heinrich is good for a third term, Sabato predicts the Republicans will take over the Senate majority this year. That would be bad news for Heinrich who might have a good shot at the chairmanship of the Energy Committee if the Dems could hold on to the majority.

Staying with the Senate contest, we get this from Las Cruces blogger Peter Goodman:

I don't watch much TV but do look at internet news and more than any commercial I see a Domenici commercial on women and abortion. She aims to convince voters that NM abortion laws are safe and that she's thoroughly comfortable with that and has no interest in doing anything that would affect that. So she's sure pushing the abortion defense point a lot. 

Jim Hannan writes:

 Hi Joe, I thought that it was interesting that in the most recent Time Magazine story on the 100 most influential people in artificial intelligence, the only politician in the list is Martin Heinrich. Here's a link to the list and here's the blurb on Heinrich.

Heinrich, an engineer, founded the AI Caucus in 2019.

Reproductive rights appears to be the major issue that is keeping Nella from breaking into big BernCo.

Joe, I wanted to say thanks for your blog. It has been incredibly valuable over the years, keep up the good work. Second, I wanted to say I found the analysis/commentary about the presidential debate by your conservative/GOP commentators to be incredibly lacking and caricature-like. It would have been more helpful to an independent like me to understand their positions. Instead they seem to repeat the same talking points as Trump and the logic just goes around and around,with no progress. Thanks again, Benjamin V. Guevara, JD 

Thanks for tuning in over the years, Ben. We remain committed to exploring all kinds of viewpoints.

HELP THE JOURNAL

Sanderoff

Longtime reader John G. gives us a smile. 

He was disappointed to learn on the Wednesday blog that the ABQ Journal and pollster Brian Sanderoff will not be polling the heated race for the southern congressional district featuring Dem US Rep.  Gabe Vasquez and Republican Yvette Herrell in their first round of polling that is expected to be rolled out this Sunday. They do, however, plan a late October survey on the three congressional races. Opines John G:

Joe, ask Brian Sanderoff how much it would cost to do a poll only of the 2nd Congressional District to see where the race between Vasquez and Herrell is. No other questions other than those needed for this one important race. Then post that dollar figure on the blog for a GoFundMe style call to to action. Count me in for $50. 

Fifty bucks? That's pretty generous, John. I might buy the ink-stained wretches a couple of lunches if they would break open the bank for the poll. We'll have to ask Brian if he's offering any discounts.  

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Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Debate Analysis New Mexico Style; Pundits And The Parties Weigh In On Trump-Harris Clash 

It was an often unruly and arguably a somewhat unproductive 90 minute plus presidential debate last night but it did check off just about evey major issue facing the electorate. In short, there is no need for any more debates. 

VP Harris reintroduced herself, often effectively, and President Trump did nothing to lose his heretofore unshakeable base, even while losing the debate. 

It's hard to imagine anything in future debates that would change that equation thus the tied race returns still tied to the seven battleground states that we are all gradually memorizing. But some analysts think Trump may agree to another to slow any momentum Harris is building.

Harris was strongest on abortion, an issue that has risen to near the top of voter concerns in recent elections and is crucial for the Dems who need women voters to remain enthusiastic. 

Trump unapologetically appealed to his base, even if it meant raising sensational allegations about immigrants eating dogs in Ohio or saying Harris and the Dems treated President Biden "like a dog."

Questions to be resolved: VP Harris was unliked by most Americans before she became the nominee. Will voters revert to that view or is she making herself more likable to them. 

Trump knows his base like he knows Trump Tower but will there be Trump fatigue in the final stretch?

The debate highlighted those questions but did not approach resolving them. 

OTHER VOICES

We asked a variety of local political enthusiasts for their reflections on the debate. Attorney, former legislator and political consultant Greg Payne has been watching these face-offs for years and often analyzing them here. The independent who leans Trump is back and had this reaction:

There are two different issues to analyze. Who won the debate? And what's the impact on the election? Harris won the debate on points but it wasn't a knockout or even a technical knockout. In terms of the overall election? I don't think it will make any difference whatsoever. It really comes down to this: if you think America is heading in the right direction and like what you're seeing, you're going to vote for Harris. If you don't think the country is headed in the right direction and don't like what you're seeing, you're going to vote for Trump. 

SENIOR DEM ALLIGATOR:

Overall, Trump performed as expected and was on message with his base. I think he tried to appeal to middle-of-the road voters at the start but that quickly faded. I think a lot of people tuned in to see if Harris was as soft or weak as Trump supporters were predicting and she wasn’t. She also had no trouble with the questions (as Trump had tried to say she would). So, it was Harris’ night because she showed she could stand toe to toe with him and not get pushed over. 

I think that gets Harris some votes from middle of the road women voters who might be on the fence.  Look for fireworks at the next debate because you know Trump understands now the difficulty of the task ahead of him.  She’s not a pushover, she is gaining in status and her profile with voters.  Every time she passes one of these tests she will appear more legit as a potential president. 

DEM SENATOR MOE MAESTAS

Being on the same stage as the former President can only bolster Harris' credibility (similar to a challenger on stage with an incumbent). A key moment was when Trump doubled down on the ‘big lie.' January 6th still lingers in the American psyche, particularly to those who realize the importance of ‘protecting democracy.'

GOP SEN. GREG BACA

President Trump delivered a vision to reform our country to its former greatness, against vice President Harris who was unable to explain the failures of the past 3.5 years and instead denied, deflected, and distracted. Unfortunately for New Mexico, no presidential administration has been able to undo the damage that 100 years of Democrat rule in New Mexico has done.  

DEM ANALYST JAKE McCOOK 

I'm old enough to remember when New Mexico Republicans had elected officials and candidates who were statesmen. I feel sorry they have remade themselves in their image of such an awful person who neither cares about nor understands anything about people here. You'll call this partisan but I was honestly blown away by Vice President Harris's performance. She had a lot to prove and she proved she's ready to be president. Confident but not defensive, detailed on policy without being too wonky, and most importantly offered a clear choice for turning the page and charting a new way forward. It all comes down to women Joe. I trust women and I trust Kamala Harris now more than ever. 

NMGOP 

President Trump spoke directly to New Mexicans who know their neighborhoods have become unsafe and to our border communities who feel abandoned, those whom Harris seemed to laugh about. Harris could not explain why her administration opened the border to this crisis on their day one. “Trump made it clear that he would protect New Mexico's oil and gas industry, which accounts for thousands of jobs and almost 50% of our state's budget. Harris had a more confusing stance. She twisted herself into a pretzel trying to explain how she supports fracking despite previously saying she wants to ban it, while also saying that her values have not changed. 

NM DEMS  

While Kamala Harris came prepared to talk about her accomplishments and vision for the country, Donald Trump focused on himself and a confused, revisionist history about his criminal record and failed presidency, proving his utter inability to lead. “Trump displayed what we already know - he's emotionally and mentally unfit to be president. Between absurd egotistical claims, racist language, and his unnecessarily grouchy demeanor, Trump lied through his teeth about his record of eliminating abortion rights, cutting taxes large corporations, and almost every other topic that came up.

GOP CONSULTANT BOB CORNELIUS

Kamala Harris should’ve been on our Olympic track team because she’s running away from her record as the most liberal US Senator in record time. She has flip flopped on many of the major issues. She looks viable only because Joe Biden was so unviable. 

DEM CONSULTANT DAVID ALCON 

As expected, the debate over abortion took center stage. Harris made sure that women voters and liberal men cannot put any trust in Trump's motives regarding abortion; channeling her prosecutor skills by detailing rape and incest to bring home her stance on abortion. Trump only managed to talk all over on the issue, double-speaking and never really arriving at a position. Trump continued to expound his right-wing agenda on immigration. His charge that immigrants were running around eating pets proved one of the more surreal statements of the night.

GOV. LUJAN GRISHAM

It's clear that Donald Trump has zero answers on health care - except to undo the Affordable Care Act and kick millions of people off of their health care.

JOURNAL POLL UPDATE

We had some confusion about the upcoming ABQ Journal poll. There will be no polling by the Journal of the three congressional races until a second poll in late October.

The first poll with results for president is expected to be published September 15--not the 22nd. The US Senate race results traditionally come the next day. In subsequent days voter answers to various issues and the US House races are expected.  

We assumed that the hotly contested southern congressional race with Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez and Republican Yvette Herrell and the other two congressional contests would be included in the first survey but pollster Brian Sanderoff says that is not the case.

The Emerson College poll from Aug 22-24 showing Vasquez with a nearly 10 point lead is the only public poll circulating on that contest and the state awaits another to see if the race is tighter than that unexpected margin. (It probably is.)

 
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Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Abortion Rights Increasingly Takes Over Dem Campaign Narrative; Vasquez And Heinrich In Front As Dem Women Get "Supercharged;" Domenici Looks To Crime As An Offset  

Vasquez and MLG

How important is abortion to Democratic hopes in New Mexico this fall? So important that even Rep. Gabe Vasquez shed his usual caution and showed up for the groundbreaking of a new $10 million reproductive health center in Las Cruces hosted by Gov. Lujan Grisham, one of the nation's leading pro-choice advocates.

Vasquez is the same congressman who has fled the scene whenever President Biden comes anywhere near the state line, fearing that Biden's liberal credentials (and unpopularity) in the southern district would rub off on him.

But what a difference the Supreme Court's rebuke of Roe V. Wade has made. 

In 2022 Vasquez struggled to overcome GOP US Rep. Yvette Herrell, managing just a 1,350 vote win and setting up another tense rematch this year. The Supreme Court ruling came in June 2022 but by then Herrell had already excelled in adorning Vasquez with high negatives.

But that ruling has grown legs. It has supercharged women voters here and around the nation and turnout will be higher in a presidential year than it was in '22. That is especially impactful in districts like Vasquez's where just a slight bump in Dem enthusiasm could be enough to keep him in the winner's circle. 

And the issue is cutting across party lines with many Republican women expressing pro-choice views, making it even safer for Vasquez to be less circumspect in publicly embracing MLG and absorbing the predictable arrows from the GOP that his abortion position, like MLG's, is "extreme."

That Emerson College poll showing Vasquez beating Herrell by nearly ten points is likely an outlier, taken during the hubbub of the national Dem convention, but it does represent the worst case scenario for the GOP.

Their plan to take Vasquez out by forcing immigration, inflation and crime to the top of voters concerns is still alive and Democrats still have to get the vote out.

Still, the true lean of the district under redistricting is Democratic and enthusiasm among Dem women in Las Cruces and ABQ's South Valley, which make up more than half the vote, would be potentially deadly to any Republican.

VASQUEZ AS WEAK

We've perceived Vasquez as a somewhat weak candidate--a perception not unshared by observers we consider astute, but political operative Jake McCook thinks that's too tough on the freshman lawmaker: 

Come on, Joe! Vasquez a “weak candidate with an unsettled past to exploit." Are you sure you weren’t talking about Yvette Herrell? How many times must New Mexico Republicans lose for La Politica to give any serious credit where credit is due? While Herrell has been holding fundraisers behind closed doors, Gabe can be seen across the district meeting with people and bringing their concerns straight to Washington. She won’t even meet with the downwinders to tell them straight to their faces why she won’t push House Speaker Johnson to pass the bipartisan RECA bill. Maybe the 10 point lead (in the Emerson poll) is a validation of Gabe’s hard work, and Herrell’s lazy approach to letting the NRCC do her bidding? 

We're not sure we agree with all of that heartfelt rant but long ago our journalism professors insisted that we give equal time. So there it is. . .

We will say this: If Vasquez wins this race, the 2nd Congressional District will very likely drop off the list of swing districts in 2024, giving him breathing room to be more of the liberal on abortion and other issues that he truly is--and in the process looking and being more genuine.  

SENATE AND ABORTION

Domenici
A similar story is starting to play out in the race for US Senate. When the newspaper offered Sen. Heinrich and Republican Nella Domenici space to make their campaign pitches, Heinrich went all-in on abortion rights and Nella stuck with fentanyl and crime. 

She made a splash when she demanded via a cease and desist letter that Heinrich's campaign drop a TV ad that infers she is in favor of a national ban on abortion when she has repeatedly rejected that position. But Heinrich, pushing the envelope, wrote in his column that he is not backing away from that controversial attack: 

The same forces that led to Roe’s demise are backing Nella Domenici, hoping to finish the job. They’ve handpicked her to secure the majority they need to impose their extreme agenda and ban abortion nationwide, including here in New Mexico. They are bankrolling her campaign, flooding the airwaves with deceptive ads, trying to trick voters into believing she’s something that she’s not. 

That is Heinrich, who has been consistent as they come on abortion, putting up a fence around Bernalillo county, the state's largest and a county that has been voting overwhelmingly Democratic for several cycles. That abortion is his centerpiece shows how well the issue is polling in the cities for the D's. 

CRACKING THE CODE

The Domenici camp has known from the start that cracking big BernCo is the key to an upset. But she is left with the crime scourge to move the numbers. For a variety of reasons--some of them perplexing--that issue has not animated the electorate here as much as might be expected in a town riddled with constant crime. The big tell was the easy re-election of Mayor Keller in 2021 and his so far uninterrupted march toward another victory in 2025. 

Maybe all that changes. Nella was strong when she took on the crime crisis directly, planting herself in the crime-ridden SE Heights with APD and absorbing and reporting frankly on the dismal scenes she encountered, filled with the heartbreak and trauma that crime has inflicted on the city. In her column she said:

Martin Heinrich is wrong. We need more federal law enforcement personnel, and resources — not less. Not only does Heinrich reject them when offered, he doesn’t know how to bring federal resources when they are needed in to address New Mexico’s violent cartels, sex and human traffickers, gangs, and drug dealers.

To the chagrin of Domenici's supporters, this New Mexico election appears to be increasingly nationalized for the majority Democrats with reproductive rights again soaring in importance leaving crime, the economy and immigration if not in the dust, at least five or six lengths behind.

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Monday, September 09, 2024

Apodaca Will Appeal Court's Order For NM Project PAC To Disclose Donors; "We're Educating Latino Voters And Have The Right;" Claims Ethics Commission Not Holding Progressives To Same Standard 


Today's court deadline requiring the New Mexico Project to report to the state who gives the PAC money and how they spend it will come and go without any compliance as the group appeals the decision to a higher court. 

That's the word from businessman and politico Jeff Apodaca who tells NM Politics with Joe Monahan that the Project, whose aim is to oppose progressive interests and increase Hispanic influence in elections, will appeal the ruling by District Judge Joshua Allison to the NM Court of Appeals and if necessary to the state Supreme Court. 

We asked the State Ethics Commission (who brought the lawsuit) to testify at the court hearing because we have evidence that they are not following up with progressive PACS that have not registered or filed with the state. But we never got the chance to show that evidence. We're just following what's permitted under IRS regulations. We're a  501 (c) (4). They did not prove that we spent any money on ads promoting specific candidates. We are educating Latino voters on issues important to us and we have the right to say what candidates support our issues. Our donors have nothing to hide but the progressives have a history of attacking donors or companies that don't support their candidates so we want to keep them private.

Judge Allison said in his late August ruling in favor of the Ethics Commission that the Project must register with the state as a political committee and report their donations.

Failure to do so ... frustrates the purpose of the Campaign Reporting Act: to shine light on those who seek to influence our elections. . . The people have a right to know who is paying for TNMP’s political advertisements before they cast their ballots. 

(The full order is here. The Ethics Commission's full motion for the order is here.)

The Project is asking that enforcement of the court's order be stayed as they file their appeal. Apodaca said they want the judge to allow the PAC to call witnesses, including himself, to show evidence they have done nothing wrong, saying the judge did not allow any witnesses at the original hearing.

The Project spent money on ads during the primary election and Apodaca says the group plans to be active in educating voters in the general election but the court ruling has hurt fund-raising. 

We have lost some of our donors because of the damage to our reputation. We plan on being involved (in the November election) as long as the courts don't shut us down but we have to raise additional funds. . . That was the progressive intent all along--to hurt us financially.

Asked about  an April statement he made here that the Project had raised "close to" $1 million. Apodaca now says that number was "what we hope" to raise.

It's been confirmed that the group has received money from real estate interests and our sources inform that oil and gas interests have also been donors but the total amount raised remains unknown.

When forming the PAC earlier this year, Apodaca told us:

Progressives have been attacking Latinos and electing candidates in the last three elections that do not reflect our communities. I give them credit for getting their vote out but their policies have caused more crime, fewer job opportunities and a failure to deliver on healthcare. They are attacking our Latino candidacies, culture and legacy and it's time for us to respond by getting our vote out not just in presidential elections but all elections.   

ANALYSIS AND CONTEXT 

The dominance of progressives in the state's political dialogue has been on the upswing since 2020 but the sticky issues of crime, homelessness and job opportunities remain prominent.

Some of these issues gave rise to a backlash against progressive politicians on the West Coast, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has moved to a more conservative approach.

New Mexico has seen the same with its Democratic Governor when it comes to crime but progressives have been reluctant to follow her lead. 

The question now is will the progressive hold remain firm or is the Apodaca pushback the start of a move to the center.

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Thursday, September 05, 2024

Waiting For Another Foot To Drop In Herrell-Vasquez Race; First Major Polling Showed Dem Powering Ahead; Will The Next Confirm The Trend? Plus: Continuing Coverage On Speeding Up High Speed Internet Access For Rural New Mexicans  

That Emerson College poll showing strong leads across the board for Democratic candidates in New Mexico sucked a lot of oxygen out of La Politica. 

The numbers quickly snuffed out the off the wall speculation that somehow Trump--who has lost two races here--could now be competitive; that the US Senate race was actually tight and that the southern congressional district remains a toss up district when it is now lean Democratic. 

That's a mouthful to digest for even the hungriest of political pundits who now await confirmation of the trends Emerson found but perhaps with less of an enthusiasm gap between the two major parties. 

They will get that confirmation--or nonconfirmation--later this month when ABQ Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff goes into the field. He tells me the first Journal poll (two are expected for the cycle) will be published September 15 with the results of the presidential and US Senate races. 

The main point of discussion--if not contention--about the Emerson survey taken Aug. 20-22 during the Democratic National Convention is over the nearly 10 point lead (50.3 to 40.5%) that Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez held over Republican Yvette Herrell in the southern congressional district. 

Sanderoff has long pointed out the difficulty of polling the sprawling and heavily rural area but in 2022 legislative redistricting added a large swath of Bernalillo county's South Valley and Westside to the district. Combined with Dona Ana county these Democratic leaning urban areas are where more than half the vote will come from in the Herrell-Vasquez contest. And those urban areas are easier to survey.

While few expect the Journal to show Vasquez with a ten point lead, the enthusiasm of Democrats, particularly women for VP Harris, seems to be the wind at his back and giving him a decent lead. 

Vasquez won a nail-biter over Herrell in 2022 (50.31% - 49.67%). He was--by the reckoning of consultants on both sides--a weak candidate with an unsettled past to exploit. 

Herrell has come up some new attack lines over Vasquez's character that voters are not familar with but unlike '22 she now appears to be fighting a wave of enthusiam by Democrats for their party and abortion rights. Vasquez's foibles do not seem as crucial as she might hope. 

A PERMANENT LEAN?

Herrell and Vasquez
Notably the Herrell campaign has not come with any pushback against the Emerson survey but they are badly in need of a reset of the race. 

If the Journal poll shows the battle closer--with Herrell not behind by more than four points--the race will be reheated. If not, the Democratic lean of the district will be affirmed and New Mexico will be on the way to losing its only swing congressional district. 

Sanderoff and the Journal will have an easy time of it with the other races. The Emerson survey has been enough for national and local political consultants to close out the presidential race here in favor of Harris; to put the US Senate contest firmly in Heinrich's corner; the ABQ congressional seat safely in Rep. Stansbury's hands and ditto for the northern congressional district held by Rep. Leger Fernandez. 

But politics is about surprises and what seems assured today can quickly turn. We can't say we're not hoping for some as we settle in for yet another final 60 day campaign stretch. 

SATELLITE INTERNET (CONT.)

More of our continuing coverage now on why the state Office of Broadband, the Legislature and the Governor need to start rolling out high speed internet access much faster in rural New Mexico and do it by utilizing satellite service and other high speed alternatives to laying fiber which is taking years and years and putting New Mexico's kids at an educational disadvantage. Here's reader Dan Warren who has been helping us track developments:

Joe, You are right about Starlink being a quick solution for internet service in rural areas.

I have been very satisfied with the service which I have had for about 1 1/2 years. The internet is fast and being able to make good quality phone calls using WiFi calling is great. 

Starlink has also had the mobile system for RVs which you have previously reported on. Now they came out with a smaller portable system that works using DC voltage and they say you can take it backpacking. You may need to have the bigger home system to get it, but if you do need it, the additional cost is pretty reasonable.

 Longtime satellite internet provider Viasat may be feeling the pinch brought on by Starlink. I used to pay $127 for their mediocre service and now I think they are down to $99 a month. 

Several companies are gearing up to provide cell phone service that will connect directly to a satellite, so you will be able to make phone calls from the middle of nowhere where cell towers don't exist. Here is a link to a story on Space News.

Thanks for tuning in here this week.  

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

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Wednesday, September 04, 2024

Dumped At The Altar Again? Alarm Bells Grow Louder over Maxeon Solar And Promise of 1,800 Jobs At Mesa Del Sol; Stock Still Crashing And Management Mum On FInancial Future; Mayor Keller Hopeful But Hedging  

When it comes to placing massive solar developments at ABQ's Mesa del Sol hope again appears positioned to triumph over experience.

Maxeon Solar, pledging a $1 billion investment and 1,800 jobs and subsidized to the tune of $600 million in cash and incentives from state and local governments plus millions more from the feds Inflation Reduction Act, continues to crash and burn on the US stock market. 
 
Tuesday Maxeon management warned that it can no longer offer any guidance about its financial future. 

Maxeon was down 21 percent  in Tuesday's trading (at 8 cents a share), approaching the lowest (ever) after reporting Q2 revenues of $184 million, down 47% from the prior-year quarter, and saying it expects Q3 revenues will "decline significantly" due to "intense competitive pressures, subdued distributed generation market demand, project delays and order cancellations. . . and an unpredictable policy environment." Maxeon (MAXN) said it is no longer able to provide financial guidance for Q3 and is withdrawing full-year guidance for revenues and is not conducting a conference call to discuss Q2 results. 

Maxeon did not specifically mention their ABQ plans Tuesday but the writing is clearly on the wall. 

We warned of possible trouble ahead when on August 13 of last year Gov. Lujan Grisham and ABQ Mayor Keller announced Maxeon's plan to manufacture solar panels here. The stock crashed 32 percent on that very day.
 
And in that blog we also reviewed the many failed solar development efforts for Mesa del Sol preceding Maxeon, including the flame-out of Schott Solar and Advent that cost government here oodles of dollars in tax incentives.

And now there's been further reporting on the possible collapse of Maxeon's plans as economic planners helplessly stand by awaiting a final outcome. 

Maxeon still has a slice of hope of recovering. Ironically, the Singapore-based firm has now essentially been taken over by a Chinese company that is pumping millions into their reserves. Ironic because it is the dumping of low-cost solar panels by China into the US that has been hammering solar manufacturing.

But that Chinese backing could be a problem for Maxeon as it awaits approval for a nearly $2 billion loan from the US Department of Energy to build the ABQ manufacturing plant. Without that loan Maxeon will get a gravestone next to Advent and Schott on the south ABQ mesa. 

DUMPED AT THE ALTAR?

Mayor Keller is now hedging on Maxeon's future (is there any alternative?) as well as that of Ebon Solar, another company that has announced a giant  manufacturing facility at Mesa del Sol with the promise of 900 high-paying jobs. Here's Keller:

I have to say we've been so burned by these companies (in the past). . .We are just dumped at the altar all the time. What's changed is the Inflation Reduction Act. . . These companies that manufacture in Asia. . . it now subsides them to manufacture in America especially for green products like solar panels. . .All these companies are trying to move back to America and we have a thesis about (ABQ) being a manufacturing, renewable energy hub. . .It was just too expensive for them to take advantage (of what the city offers). We've been positioned to win this fight for decades but now we can deliver because of that Inflation Reduction Act.
 
That said, I really am not going to celebrate until there is a shovel in the ground. We've done everything as a city. . . So it's all up to the company. If  they go bankrupt they're not going to come. But we now have two. The scale is so big. . . if one of the two (companies) actually does what they say they are going to do that is the same amount of jobs and infrastructure as when Intel came in the 80's and that literally created modern day Rio Rancho. Now that there are two irons in the fire I gotta believe that one is going to work.
 
New Mexico's romance with borderline companies that demand massive taxpayer subsidies in exchange for coming here is legendary and a poor substitute for true economic development. Maybe at least there will be a valuable lesson learned if these latest solar examples flame out. But judging by the past, maybe not. 
 
POLITICO PRESIDENTS
 
Reader Frank chambers writes of our Tuesday blog reporting on Public Education Secretary Arsenio  Romero stepping down to pursue the presidency of New Mexico State University:
 
Joe, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels was selected as Purdue President by a board mostly of his appointments. Burns Hargis stepped down from the Oklahoma State Board of Regents to be appointed president. A rule that one had to be off the Board for one year was waived. That's bad news for education all around, including Romero's case. 

Romero served on the NMSU Board of Regents before becoming Sec. of Education.
 
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Tuesday, September 03, 2024

MLG Loses Another Education Chief But This Time She's Not To Blame; Arsenio Romero Abandons Ship; Seeks Top NMSU Job And Gets An Alligator Strike Over It, Plus: Lots Of Free Rides To Roundhouse  

MLG and Romero
MLG is going through more public education secretaries than J. Lo has husbands. But this time it's not her fault. Really. 

Secretary of Education Arsenio Romero was MLG's fourth. A superintendent of Los Lunas schools before joining the cabinet, Romero is going full-on turncoat against the Governor after raising hopes that he was finally the fella who would start to reshape the state's often failing public schools.

Instead of sticking around and fighting it out for kids who need a fighter, Romero is resigning and making a play to become the new president of New Mexico State University, an institution rife with incompetence at the top and where Romero only recently sat on the school's Board of Regents that will pick the new president. 

The Guv's office said pick one or the other and Romero chose to get out of PED.

Remarked a Las Cruces reader:

Talk about an in your face conflict of interest and yet another brazen display of the unapologetic incompetence that has infected the state's second largest university.

MLG wasn't the only one to fall for Romero who she appointed in early 2023. We also held his hand as he fought overwhelming odds to lengthen the school day in New Mexico, a fight that continues in the courts. 

It was a game-changing play but to Romero it turned out to be just a game. So much for his pledge upon taking office that he was in the struggle to better our public schools for "the long haul."

ALLIGATOR STRIKE ON ROMERO

Readers with inside knowledge of PED were merciless in their reactions to Romero's jumping ship. Here's an example:

Joe, Romero was announced as one of five finalists for the NMSU job but it feels like he’s got the inside track. Given his close personal connections to the Regents and their chief of staff, Adam Cavotta, he will probably land the position paying $500,000 a year or more. 

Until just last year, Romero himself served on the Board of Regents, from 2020 to 2023. Are the Regents doing a backroom deal in selecting him? Is it a conflict of interest? Does it even pass the smell test? The bigger question: Is he qualified? As Secretary of NMPED, he showed no leadership to address failings discovered in 80 plus internal audits. 

NMPED is known to be in a state of internal chaos under his watch. Educational programs run by non-profits and others that are supposed to receive regular and ongoing funds from NMPED (to pay staff and rent) complain that they do not get them because of NMPED’s widespread fiscal mismanagement. That’s all on Romero. 

When you’re already 50th in the nation, how can you let these things happen? And why would NMSU, with all its many well-publicized problems now be handed over to Romero’s incompetent care? Running a university is more complicated than his current job which he shows no aptitude for. So is this a case of old fashioned cronyism?

Romero won't the be the last public servant to act callously and in his own self-interest but his abandonment of the welfare of the children of New Mexico especially stings. He now scampers off to try to gain admission to the rat's nest that has become NMSU's leadership circle. 

Arsenio, for turning your back on the children of New Mexico you are the victim of an Alligator strike. 

Congrats. . . or something.

BOYD'S BEAT

With Labor Day in the rearview mirror the campaign season goes into high gear. Back on the beat after a year on leave is longtime ABQ Journal capitol reporter Dan Boyd. As he preps for election coverage, he notes the lack of competitiveness in so many legislative seats:   

The road to re-election will certainly be an easy one for many lawmakers this year. With all 112 legislative seats up for election, 51 incumbent lawmakers — out of 85 total incumbents seeking a new term (65 percent) — do not have opposition in the November general election. In the Senate, 19 of the 26 incumbents seeking re-election do not have general election opponents. The percentage of unopposed lawmakers is slightly lower in the House, as 32 of the 59 incumbents who are running to keep their seats are unopposed. One of the reasons for the lack of contested races could be New Mexico’s increasing political polarization, as Democrats have claimed nearly every legislative seat in the state’s urban centers of Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Santa Fe over the last decade.

Like the rest of the press pack Boyd is on the hunt for exciting races to cover but changing demographics, redistricting and other factors have combined to make New Mexico essentially a one party state. 

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Thursday, August 29, 2024

Reader Vox Populi: They Write Of ABQ Dystopian Crime Scene, Getting Broadband Out The Door And The Passing Of A Famed NM County Clerk  

This long-awaited edition of Reader Vox Populi kicks off with a contribution from reader Brian Fejer and his dystopian journey from one end of ABQ to another.

Greetings Joe, Great local coverage! This Kamala Harris voter says cheers to (US Senate candidate) Nella Domenici for spotlighting the epic failure of Mayor Keller and the ABQ City Council when it comes to the ongoing fentanyl epidemic in the metro. 

Domenici is right on when she states, "The night belongs to the addicts and the criminals."  Has she seen ABQ in the day? 

I recently drove down Central Avenue from Tramway to Downtown. There were hundreds if not over a thousand of unhoused, the addicted and the mentally ill at every intersection, every bus stop. At no point did I see see a single APD officer, ABQ Community Service staffer, ABQ Ride Security or even a police service aide at any point. At the same time the Mayor was patting himself, APD, and ACS on the back for doing everything they can on this issue. 

I voted for Mayor Keller twice, but he’s lost all credibility. If you call 311 or 242 COPS – after being on hold for 5 – 15 minutes, they can only dispatch for one single person, not thousands. The next mayor of ABQ will need to be proactive on this crisis, not reactive. This city is in dire need of new leadership. 

Most Governors and Mayor’s on the west coast have gotten the message! CA Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed an executive order and is helping to clean up encampments. The Mayor of Portland declared a fentanyl emergency. The Mayor of Los Angeles declared a homeless public health emergency. Phoenix has been court ordered to clean up encampments. The US Supreme Court has ruled that local municipalities can indeed enforce their criminal codes and laws. 

Public relations stunts are not leadership and that is all the Mayor, the Police Chief, and the City Council have. The New Mexico GOP is a clown show – we don’t have an opposition party. 

INTERNET SOAPBOX

Our soapbox continues to get a workout when it comes to advocating for the state Broadband Office to start deploying satellite internet service in rural New Mexico instead of taking years to string expensive fiber to every remote area, many of which are barely reachable. We have an ally in reader Jim McClure: 

Joe, I’m glad to see you turning a spotlight on the state’s cumbersome approach to broadband deployment. The excuses for delays in broadband deployment outlined by the New Mexico Office of Broadband Access and Expansion (Broadband expansion is no high-speed fix) illustrate why government agencies are increasingly unable to build things. 

The article claims that legal processes and government permits will delay construction for years. You’d think a state government agency could streamline a process that politicians describe in moonshot terms, but apparently New Mexico’s broadband office is powerless to move things along. The biggest reason for the delay is that New Mexico chose a technology – optical fiber cable – that requires more construction, money and permits than the wireless technology that now accounts for a growing share of broadband deployments. 

Fiber cable works well but requires running a cable to every single house. This is economical in cities and suburbs but expensive and slow to install in rural areas. Newer technologies are doing the job faster at lower cost in other states. Wireless systems are now competitive with optical fiber, using transceivers on utility poles to beam the Internet to an antenna on each house. 

Another wireless option is offered by cell phone companies that deliver broadband through their network of cell towers. If you’re in a hurry, Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite broadband service deployed Internet service to war-torn Ukraine in a matter of days. But New Mexicans have to wait for years while the Office of Broadband Access and Expansion gets permits to dig trenches for fiber cable. 

Today’s technology offers a variety of options to build a hybrid network with a mix of optical fiber, wireless and satellite systems. If the state government was serious about building a network instead of building a bureaucracy, more New Mexicans would have Internet instead of excuses.

We second the motion, Jim. 

REMEMBERING A CLERK

Lynn Ellins
Longtime Las Cruces journalist Walt Rubel remembers one of the more famous county clerks in state history who died on May 30:

Lynn Ellins, 87, will be best remembered as the first county clerk in the state to have the courage to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples in 2013. As he explained at the time, Ellins wasn’t trying to make a social statement about same-sex marriage. He was simply trying to apply the law as he and his staff believed it to read.

“The state’s marriage statutes are gender neutral and do not expressly prohibit Doña Ana County from issuing marriage licenses to same-gender couples,” he said. “Any further denial of marriage licenses to these couples violates the United States and New Mexico constitutions and the New Mexico Human Rights Act.”

The issue had been tied up in the courts, but the move by Ellins proved to be decisive. More than 40 couples received their licenses the first day, with marriage ceremonies conducted by former county public information director Jess Williams, who had routinely performed the same ceremony each Valentine’s Day for other couples.

The U.S. Supreme Court settled the issue in 2015.

Ellins had already established a distinguished career in law and politics before moving to Las Cruces. He had been legal counsel to a New York State Senate committee, a member of the University of Colorado Board of Regents and deputy Colorado secretary of state, along with working in private law in both New York and Colorado.

In 2002, both County Clerk Ruben Ceballos and Chief Deputy Clerk Aurelio Enriquez were arrested on criminal charges related to their mishandling of the primary election that June. They faced 14 charges including improper shredding of absentee ballots, demanding illegal fees and conspiracy. Ceballos was convicted of five felonies. . .

I don’t know if the sad state of affairs in that office had anything to do with luring Ellins back into public service. What I do know is that his two terms as clerk, from 2009 to 2016, brought a level of professional competency to the office that had been sorely lacking before his arrival.

Ellins was then elected to the county commission in 2018, and served as chairman for two years. He lost  his re-election in 2022 when he was 85. . .

He provided critical leadership on local issues for nearly two decades. He brought integrity to our elections and respect to all of the offices he held. And he had the humanity to end the wait for couples who were eager to begin the rest of their lives together. 

THE BOTTOM LINES

In our report about the possible contenders for state House Majority Leader Wednesday we omitted the name of Santa Fe Rep. Linda Serrato. And ABQ Rep. Joy Garratt confirms that she is not running for the post. The new leader will be chosen by the House Dems following the November election to replace Rep. Gail Chasey who is retiring.

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Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Political Potpourri: Race Shaping Up For State House Majority Leader, Scuttlebutt Over Challenge To Speaker Martinez Heard And Tight Las Cruces House Contest In Store 

Some political notes to start with today. . . 

The race is on to replace House Majority Leader Gail Chasey of ABQ who retires from the Legislature at the end of the year. Four names are circulating for the position that will be decided by the House Democrats following the November election. They are ABQ Reps Day Hochman-Vigil of the NE Heights, Joy Garratt of the Westside and Snata Fe Rep.Linda Serrato. Rep. Eliseo Alcon, who represents Cibola and McKinley counties is also said to be weighing a bid. His thinking being that if Hochman-Vigil and Garratt split the ABQ votes, he might have a shot at the number two House leadership position. 

Will House Speaker Javier Martinez be challenged for re-election as Speaker after the election? Scuttlebutt has been heard for several months that progressive women in the 45 member House Dem caucus could make a move against Martinez who took over the position in January of 2023. Insiders say a challenge is far from a sure thing this cycle but could come in the future. They say Santa Fe Rep. Reena  Szczepanski, House Majority Whip and an acolyte of former House Speaker Brian Egolf, could be the challenger. 

But Speaker Martinez's supporters say he has been a strong leader, commanding respect from the caucus, standing up to the Governor when necessary and having the back of his members. Martinez, an unabashed progressive, made a bold move when he announced that he would support all of his caucus members--conservative and progressive--at the June primary election. Several Dem conservative reps lost to progressive Dem challengers and that is probably stirring the pot over the speaker's future.

SOUTHERN SHOWDOWN

Silva and Winterrowd
Community organizer Sarah Silva of Las Cruces is the latest progressive woman trying to make her way to the Roundhouse but she will have to fend off a strong GOP challenge.

She was picked as the new nominee over two other contenders by eight State Dem Central Committee members from House District 53. She replaces Jon Hill, who won the June primary, but passed away from cancer. 

Silva says she raised $10,000 in the immediate aftermath of that vote but Republican and special ed teacher Elizabeth Winterrowd, who lost a close race (51-49) for the seat two years ago to Rep. Willie Madrid, is back and last reported over $50,000 in cash. 

The seat is one of the few swing seats left. It covers the eastern part of Doña Ana County and a slice of Otero County. Progressive Hill, who defeated the conservative Madrid in the June primary, endorsed Silva before his untimely death. Republicans are already calling Silva a "Socialist" as they try to snatch the seat.

NOT A PHOTO OP?

Forbiddden photo?
That scathing commentary on ABQ's fentanyl and crime problem in the SE Heights from GOP US Senate candidate Nella Domenci, who spent time touring the area with APD, had the Mayor's office reacting. Not about  the commentary but on the photo of her with APD officers sporting their official department patches. They say that is a campaign violation:

Her team made a rookie mistake by posting photos with APD's patch. The photos were not authorized and should never have been posted. She should have known better. Our lawyers are notifying her to remove the photos from her website. It violates APD's SOP 1-1-6E which states: "Prohibited political activities which include the following... F. Using Department-issued equipment to engage in political activity" and the Hatch Act. 

The City does sometimes accommodate ride alongs for candidates, but the photo was not authorized, especially not to be used for campaign materials. The department as an organization cannot and does not endorse political candidates, and the photo could give that perception. 

We asked Domenici's campaign for a comment but they did not respond. Her photos with APD officers remain on her website.  (The photos were gone by mid-morning Wednesday).

CHIEF MEDINA UPDATE

In a first draft Tuesday we quoted APD watchdog Dan Klein as saying the city ought to force Medina to be personally responsible for his legal fees in a lawsuit brought against the city Tuesday by the seriously injured driver of the car that Medina rammed into at a February accident. 

But even if Medina was found to have caused the accident, his legal fees still have to be paid for by the city, says ABQ attorney Tom Grover who has defended police in multiple cases

Medina has caused the city major exposure to liability because of his actions. Because his acts were “official” the city will have to indemnify him for his liability. 

Under a change to the City Charter approved by the City Council this year and that will be voted on this November, the Council would need to approve the firing of the Chief by the Mayor:

The Police and Fire Chiefs may only be removed from office for cause by the Mayor for any reason. The Police and Fire Chiefs may also be removed or with an affirmative vote of two-thirds plus one of the entire membership of the Council after cause has been determined by the Inspector General.

Seven of the nine Councilors would have to approve of a Chief's firing, if the amendment wins voter approval. The current Charter does not expressly say how or whether the Mayor can fire the Chief, although mayors have not been reluctant to fire them in the past and without Council approval.

And. . .We had APD Chief Medina retiring in March of next year. Not so. As we reported on April 14, Medina announced he will retire in December 2025, after the November '25 mayoral election.

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Tuesday, August 27, 2024

APD Spin On Crime Stats Spotlighted And Chief Medina Excuse For Failing To Turn On Body Camera Is Called Out; Councilor Files State Complaint, Plus: Nella's Night Out  

ABQ police are pushing the envelope as far as possible as they try to persuade the public that crime is actually going down in the city. Their latest effort didn't work out so well:

APD says there was a 15% drop in individual robberies. There was also a 39% drop in attempted robberies, and a 51% drop in commercial robberies. But what is the difference between a robbery and burglary? Commercial robberies – the crime APD says is down 51% – happen when businesses are open. According to APD data, the number of burglaries are actually up 15% compared to last year.

Of course it's the epidemic of burglaries, especially at night when businesses are closed and when cops on the beat are short, that is much more of a worry than the less frequent attempts at daytime robberies.

Then there's this latest bizarre story involving APD Chief Harold Medina. 

He told APD internal affairs investigators that he failed to turn on his lapel camera following an accident last February in which he ran a red light and rammed into a vehicle causing the driver serious injury because he was invoking his Fifth Amendment right not to incriminate himself. 

SAY WHAT?

Mayor Keller & Medina
Say what? That's the question former APD sergeant and watchdog Dan Klein had upon hearing of Medina's explanation:

New Mexico law requires an officer to turn on their body camera and failure to do so is a violation of state law NMSA 29-1-18.  "

An explanation of the Fifth:

You can always refuse to talk to federal agents or the police. But the 5th amendment right to remain silent is only triggered in “custodial” situations. If you are free to leave or stop the questioning at any time, that would not be considered a “coercive setting” for purposes of the right to remain silent.

Medina appears to have knowingly violated state law and therefore should bear the consequence. Remember, most of the APD officers involved in the DWI scandal were not in custody when they invoked their 5th amendment right and were terminated by Medina. Think about that. 

ABQ attorney Tom Grover, who often defends police officers, adds:

It blew my mind because it's so preposterous. The notion that he has a Fifth Amendment right would suggest that he's in custody. He, the police chief, is in custody and, therefore, is required to make a statement. He's not in custody. He's at work.

Chief Medina has previously said that he will be retiring in December 2025, after the November '25 election.

MORE MEDINA FALLOUT

Sanchez
Meanwhile City Councilor Louie Sanchez--who happens to be an ex-cop--is taking action over Medina's body camera mishap:

Councilor Sanchez announced he submitted an LEA-90 to the NM Department of Public Safety which is a formal request for an investigation into the conduct of Chief Medina stemming from the February accident. 

This request comes in the light of Medina's admission that he intentionally and purposefully did not activate his ORBD camera when involved in police action. Such action by Medina appears to violate (state law) which requires police officers to wear and record encounters with citizens. The Law Enforcement Training Act (Section 29-7-1 through 29- 7-16), grants the Board with the powers and duties to refuse, suspend or revoke certification of a police officer for just cause as provided under the Law Enforcement Training Act and Board Rules. 

"As the chief law enforcement officer of the state's largest police department the chief should hold himself to a higher standard than that of his rank and file, not lower. We are at a crossroads where officer morale is at an all time low and public trust might even be lower." Councilor Sanchez stated. 

 NELLA'S NIGHT OUT

The ABQ crime explosion again took center stage over the weekend when three homicides occurred in one hour in or near downtown early Sunday morning.

On the campaign trail, candidates are working to connect with voters on the continued gun violence and the fetanyl crisis. 

GOP US senate candidate Nella Domenici took to the streets to get a closer look. This report is from her campaign: 

“Simple crime statistics, while alarming, don’t convey the human suffering and lives destroyed by fentanyl. This evening spent with police officers redoubled my commitment to secure the border.  We have to stop the flow of fentanyl that is devastating our neighborhoods.

Domenici learned that fentanyl pills cost less than 30 cents apiece and are extremely easy to obtain. She also spoke to a neighbor who is sick of the crime that is so pervasive in her neighborhood. Her backyard is littered with discarded tin foil from fentanyl users, and stolen purses stripped of credit cards, cash, and any other valuable belongings. 

“I saw block after block of people openly smoking Fentanyl from foil wrappers. They wander the streets like zombies. They sleep in alleys only to wake and repeat their addictive behavior until they overdose and die.” said Domenici. "Many are malnourished and dehydrated with sores on their skin. They prostitute themselves, and commit crimes, some violent, to support their addiction. The night belongs to the addicts and the criminals because everyone else is afraid to leave their homes."  

"The night belongs to the addicts and the criminals." Sad but true. 

Domenici also released this ad on crime and fentanyl

THE BOTTOM LINES

The Daily Show had some fun with MLG's short speech at the Democratic National Convention, rolling their eyes when she declared that New Mexico was "el fugeo" (on fire) over the coming campaign. That portion of the video begins about nine minutes in.

US House Speaker Mike Johnson made a stop in Las Cruces last week on behalf of of southern GOP congressional candidate Yvette Herrell who is trying to unseat Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez. Johnson said of the race: "We have a tough district here." After a poll showing Vasquez running nearly 10 points ahead (see Monday blog) that may be an understatement. 

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