Does Howard Dean have a lock on New Mexico? And, who, if anyone, is hot on his trail? We will soon have a good handle on those questions as word on the street is that the Albuquerque Journal will conduct two statewide polls prior to our state's first ever presidential caucuses February 3. Just when the polling will be done is a closely guarded secret to prevent the contenders from flooding the airwaves with TV spots to influence the polling while it is underway. Veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff of Research and Polling will again be at the polling helm for the Journal.

I would like to see three polls on this one. Hopefully, Brian will do one of his two before the January 19 Iowa caucuses so we can see how victory there impacts the candidates here. The January 27 New Hampshire primary will also establish momentum for some of the candidates. Right now, the smart money in New Mexico, like everywhere else, is on Governor Dean. He has the biggest organization here, has done the most mailing and media and has demonstrated strong appeal in the liberal wing of the party. If that liberal wing holds solid the other seven NM contenders could be left splitting the remainder of the pot.

SO FAR, I SCORE IT FOR DEAN

From this corner, it seems one of the challengers is going to have to make an appeal for that liberal base, or else Dean will win here. In the national polls, Gen. Wes Clark is second behind Dean, but he is not contending in Iowa, so he will need a pop in New Hampshire as he comes into New Mexico and six other states that are holding a primary or caucus the same day.

The NM polling will present special challenges because as few as 35,000 out of a half-million registered Dems could cast ballots. Sanderoff will have to be extra careful screening the interviews. That was a problem in the low-turnout special constitutional amendment election in September. Also, most of the votes will be cast by absentee ballot, so if Dean can bank a bunch of those prior to any disappointment in Iowa and/or New Hampshire, he still might have enough votes in the bank to pull through. Keep your eye here for those polls and, more importantly, analysis for what they mean.

THE MIGHTY MALOOF'S, THE MIGHT DUCKS, AND BIG BILL

I received a phone call from Los Angeles Times reporter David Davis Tuesday who told me he's penning an in-depth article for the Times' Sunday Magazine on the famous Maloof's of New Mexico, now mostly of Nevada. Davis was inquiring about the billionaire family's political ties in NM as they prepare to diversify their business empire into L.A. Davis said in addition to being one of the finalists to purchase the National Hockey League's Anaheim Mighty Ducks, the Maloof's also plan a move into the music business in the entertainment capital of the world.

Here's how a report in the Sacramento Bee put it: "Ownership of the NHL franchise would provide the family with a significant asset in a major market, further diversifying their financial empire while creating a golden triangle of sports and entertainment properties with the Kings in Northern California, the Ducks in Southern California and the Palms in southern Nevada. 'We're still looking at it," said Joe Maloof. 'That's about all I can say.'"

The Maloof's remaining business tie to NM is the Coors distributorship and Quality liquors. Their employees were part of an effective lobbying effort during the recent special legislative session that killed Governor Bill's proposed booze tax increase. Davis pointed out that the Maloof's contributed to Big Bill's campaign, but on this issue they were on opposite sides. (My legislative experts say the Guv apparently will not try for the liquor tax increase again in the upcoming session). Phil Maloof lost his race for Congress here in 98'. He' now in the business with brothers Joe, George and Gavin and family matriarch Colleen. The family supports prez contender Dick Gephardt.

Reporter Davis, whose sister is ABQ attorney Jennifer Davis-Hall, says the New York Times is also working on a piece about the Maloof's, who have a business winning streak going that any of their sports teams would envy.

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The public and press may believe there's only one player on the state political stage, but don't tell it to Attorney General Patsy Madrid. She's hosting a coming out party in 2004 and she's the honored guest. The diminutive and feisty Madrid has fired several shots across the bow of Big Bill and Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, but her recent attack of Bill's cherished presidential caucuses is the one you hear echoing loudly. Madrid said the caucuses are a waste of time because they will attract few voters.

Friends of Madrid tell me she is stepping on the gas as the first year of Bill's term ends and her own ambitions for the Guv's office crystallize. "She's determined to prevent a line of succession for that office that leads directly to Diane. She's distinguishing herself now by being one of the very few Democrats to publicly disagree with Bill. A lot of them would like to, but she's the only one who has done it."

For sure, Dem dissenters seem to cower in fear of the Big Fella. But Patsy is independently elected so she can afford to fire. Still, her public opposition is notable. If for any reason Bill were to depart office, Denish would be next in line. Another supporter put it this way: "She wants the state to know she is no believer in a hand-me-down governorship. It may sound farfetched, but I think Patsy might even consider challenging Bill for re-election. She wants it that bad." Really?!

Despite her opposition to the caucus format, The AG hits the road for a two day tour for Prez contender Edwards this week; a tour that will remind New Mexicans she is not to be forgotten.

MANNY AND RICHARD: BEDBUGS OR BEDFELLOWS?

Two pro-tems of the state senate, Manny Aragon (past)and Richard Romero (present) are on the same team again, probably for the first time since they shot hoops together at St. Mary's High in Downtown ABQ. (Richard says Manny hogged the ball). Now they have joined with politico Dan Serrano to host a fundraiser for presidential contender Dick Gephardt Sunday at the Old Town Sheraton featuring Congressman Patrick Kennedy of Rhode Island (son of Senator Teddy). I asked a Valley insider if this meant Manny was supporting Richard's run for Congress. I received a flat "no" in response. Romero attacked Aragon in his first run for Congress in 02.' Seems they can forgive enough to get together for Gephardt, but not forget enough for Manny to endorse Richard. Valley alligators say Majority Leader Manny is supporting former DEA agent Eli Chavez for the Dem nomination to take on Heather in the Fall. As for Gephardt, the Missouri Congressman is getting good Valley support and also has the prominent Maloof family in his corner who maintain ties to ABQ while attending to business in Nevada.


ROD ADAIR: UNLEASHED AND UNCENSORED

If opponents of Roswell State Senator Adair were trying to chase him out of the senate the plan flopped. The GOP's Light Guv nominee in 02', responding to our report yesterday that the rumor mill had him on the fence, emailed me the following: "I am gathering signatures to run for re-election. I have never had any plans to hand off this seat. I have every intention of running again."

Adair took issue with me for publishing the rumor asking: "What was the point?" He also said I was a liberal, a member of the NM political establishment and engaged in a conspiracy with "Inside the Capitol" columnist Jay Miller. He also wrote that "you have no grounds for virtually anything you ever say." I guess I won't be using Rod in my promotional brochures. But we thank him for the chuckle and wish him well all the same as he fights the GOP brushfires that continue to burn as the party sorts out its internal power struggle. Rod is a noted Dendahlite and foe of current GOP Chair Gorham.

PREZ UPDATE

I haven't told Shea at the Trib yet, but he is 'partnering' with me to cover the February 3 caucuses. Here's the latest: Shea Andersen

Hey, we are not Fox News, but we try to be 'fair and balanced.' Please email me your comments, criticisms and general impressions of life from the link at the top of this page.

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The nightmare scenario for the Democrats in the ABQ congressional district is back. The Green Party's Jeremy Brown tells "New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan" he will be a candidate in the race and won't be a token contender. Brown is a sociology instructor at TV-I and, in something new for the Greens, he's a candidate with military ties. Brown is a retired Army veteran who served in the Special Forces in Panama for four years and 15 years in the Army reserves.

Brown, who lives in the East mountains and ran for the Bernalillo County Commission in 98', tells me his big issue in the 04' race is "corporate power." He says incumbent Rep. Wilson is "completely controlled" by corporate interests and his three Democratic opponents "are not much better." State Sen. Richard Romero, running for a second time against Heather after getting pasted in 02', phoned Brown in an unsuccessful effort to keep him out of the race. The Dems say the Greens siphon crucial votes away from them and make a GOP victory easier. But Brown says Romero's pleadings were hopeless because the Greens are determined to provide an alternative to the two major parties which they see as identical twins.

GREEN: IT MAKES DEMS SEE RED

The Greens sat out the 2002 Wilson-Romero battle. In 2000 Dr. Daniel Kerlinsky ran and was viciously attacked by Democratic contender John Kelly. Still, Kerlinsky garnered 6 percent of the vote. In 98', when the seat became vacant upon the death of Rep. Steve Schiff, Green Bob Anderson scored an astonishing 14 percent, in part because of intense negative campaigning between Wilson and Democrat Phil Maloof.

But this time it's Romero who has the most to lose. He's already battling two other Dems for the nomination. Coming out of the primary, which he is expected to win, Romero will now have to fight off the Greens who appeal to environmentalists and those tired of the huge money interests that dominate the political landscape. The Greens are designated a major party because their governor candidate, David Bacon, won 5 per cent of the vote in his 02' race. Like the D's and R's, the Green's will have a pre-primary convention as well as a June primary to nominate Brown and other candidates.

Look for Brown to perform decently, especially when we get another round of multi-million dollar negative media ads. Brown will take most of his vote from disgruntled Dems, but Wilson could also see her totals impacted. She has yet to make the district hers, winning votes but not deep support, which keeps the Dems on her trail. But with the addition of Green Jeremy Brown that trail just got a lot colder.

DARE HE QUIT?

SEN. ADAIR
Rumors are busily floating in high-level Republican political circles that hard-right State Senator Rod Adair of Roswell may not seek re-election this year, and that his friend, State Rep. Dan Foley, another Roswell Republican, could move to replace Rod, leaving his House seat open. Adair has said nothing publicly to refute the widespread rumors. He is one of the toughest opponents the Democrats have in the Legislature with a mind that even one of his critics says is 'fully engaged at all times." However, Adair is a supporter of former State GOP Chair John Dendahl whose followers remain locked in a power struggle with new GOP Chair Ramsay Gorham. Adair's departure from the Senate would relieve her of some serious heartburn. Adair is a demographic expert who was awarded lucrative contracts under Dendahl, but not so under Ramsay. Adair's statewide fame came when he engaged in fisticuffs with then House Speaker Raymond Sanchez that were captured on a video camera in a Roundhouse hallway.

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It was interesting to see the Guv's office pop his proposed budget on one of the slowest news days of the year--New Year's Eve. The measure is going to cause heartburn for Big Bill with liberals in his own party, rather than the Republicans. Those 'revenue enhancements' for Medicaid users is what will especially draw liberal ire. Obviously, the Guv did not want a big deal made out of it thus the holiday budget release. But Bill does not have a deaf political ear, and to no one's surprise, did not propose any major tax increases--unless the Medicaid service hikes are called that. And, of course, I have already received emails calling them that. The state's fiscal problems may not be front and center in election year 04', but the vast sums being consumed are going to be the party spoiler in 05' and beyond--but that's not an election year.

MY MAILBAG

My report this week on the Edwards presidential campaign mentioned Marsha Hardeman, the African-American former director of The ABQ Convention Center who was fired by Mayor Baca and his then top aide Theresa Trujeque, who is now working for Edwards here. I reported that Hardeman won a $4 million dollar suit discrimination suit against the city. She did win the award but I am told the amount of that award is now pending before a federal appeals court and nothing, as of this writing, has been paid out.

Supporters of Bernalillo County GOP Chair and noted car dealer Ken Zangara were quick to point out that I fouled up when I said Ken supported AG Patsy Madrid in 98'. Ken did not support Patsy. He supported her challenger Republican David Iglesias. (Now U.S. attorney in NM) Zangara's name came up in a campaign controversy in the AG race, but I had Zangara on the wrong side of the battle. It would be a bit strange for a guy who gave $100,000 to President Bush to support a liberal Democrat. Thanks to those who pointed out the error.

Another e mailer wanted to let me know that all 112 members of the Legislature are up for election in 04', not just the 70 house members I mentioned in one of my reports. How could I forget Manny and the gang? By the way, I am working on an exclusive report for you dealing with Manny's re-election so keep in touch.

ONCE A JUNKIE...ALWAYS A JUNKIE

And finally, this first weekend of the brand new year, links to two fellow political junkies who are still going strong in semi-retired status. Arthur Alpert, the founder of the monthly ABQ magazine for seniors, Primetime, is pontificating again with a decidedly liberal slant. This time he's joined all of us on the web. Check him out at: Alperts Truth Keep it up Arthur, Roosevelt lives!


Most of my readers are aware of veteran NM political writer Larry Calloway. But you might not know he has a web site where he provides in-depth analysis on key issues. Calloway has got to be the longest running political writer in NM, going back to the AP in the mid 60's. If he isn't, Ned Cantwell, or another oldtimer, will surely correct me. In any event, Calloway still offers crisp writing leavened with his unique experience at LarryCalloway

Enjoy the weekend and see you back here Monday.

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Sure, we could look back and reminisce about what was, but what is to be is even more interesting, especially in an upcoming election year where New Mexicans will have a loud say in the presidential race, a Legislative session laden with fiscal intrigue, a primary election that promises some intense intraparty warfare and a General Election campaign that will no doubt provide us with several upsets. Here's a look at where some of the above stands on this cusp of a brand new year.

HE'S THE MAN

Presiding over all this will be chief political conductor Big Bill. One keen observer put it to me this way: "Joe, we are watching a politician of major proportion reach full political maturity. New Mexico seems barely big enough to contain him. It's like his personal clubhouse."

Certainly the Guv casts a long shadow and only the intensity of the national stage seems enough to quench his thirst for the political power game. He continues to reject any possibility of becoming the VP nominee in 04', but hardly any political pros take that seriously. "If they build it, he will come," our observer reflected. "It would be a once in a lifetime chance, and that's not something you say no to." No, it isn't.

In all my years of covering and participating in New Mexico politics, I have never seen a political figure here with a longer reach than this one. Former State Senator Aubrey Dunn and Manny and Ray have exercised immense power in the Legislature, but they were confined to their respective chambers. What we are seeing in this modern era is a governor completely unleashed with the system of checks and balances stretched like polyester. Will 2004 be the year Bill begins to walk that long road down the popularity charts other chief executives have traveled? Will worthy opponents, so far meek as mice, emerge and provide a counterweight?

Only if Bill starts torching his political capital, and he has a lot to burn. The afterglow of his low-turnout landslide election is still warm. People wanted a change here. And they are getting it. That's why his mistakes are overlooked. The big picture is his pledge to get New Mexico out of its 50th in everything ranking. As long as voters feel he is pulling in that direction, he will not tank.

Governor Johnson knew New Mexicans were tired of politics as usual. So does Governor Bill. The difference is that Big Bill knows that it takes a politician to change the 'politics as usual.'

THE 112 CLUB

That's how many men and women populate our Legislature. The 70 House members are all up for re-election his year, providing the Guv with additional leverage. What lawmaker wants to risk getting cut off from campaign funds and field troops by incurring his wrath? None that I know. Senator Manny Aragon is one of the few at the Roundhouse who can take the field with Big Bill. But it seems of late what Manny wants Manny gets. And what Bill wants from Manny he gets. Aragon, a master of the rules and keeper of a generation of knowledge of state government, has the ability to throw monkey wrenches into the Guv's path, but why would he? Even the Guv's plan to cut off some of the 'pork' outlay to the lawmakers is not dead on arrival, according to my Legislative experts. Surely these are the salad days of the young Richardson administration.

CONGRESS OR BUST

Heather Wilson, Tom Udall and Steve Pearce are all sitting pretty entering the election year. Not that it is all their doing. Redistricting has given them safe seats and it takes a couple of million bucks to challenge any incumbent. No wonder just about all of them get re-elected. But for all the safety they are provided, they owe us a bit more. Heather will have six years under her belt this year, her party is in the House majority and she has the contacts to start moving up the ladder and giving New Mexico more power in the House. Her national TV appearances have been tentative. If she hopes to ascend to the Senate some day she needs to show some of the same political muscle in the Congress that she uses so effectively on the campaign trail. Perhaps 2004 will be the year.

Tom Udall could also step it up a notch. He comes from a family that has made its mark on national politics. Now it's his turn. True, his party is in the House minority, but like Heather, he will soon have half a dozen years in seniority. He has the role model to pull it off. His uncle, Mo Udall, rose to national prominence from our neighbor Arizona. Udall also has a shot at the U.S. Senate down the road. A streak of boldness in 04' might make that more likely.

Steve Pearce is the newbie on the Congressional block and rightfully concerned about protecting his seat in this vulnerable time. But he represents a large, diverse district, not just hard-right Republicans. A move to the center on occasion would be a breath of fresh air in the new year.

SENATORS FOR LIFE

Senators Pete and Jeff have over a half-century of service between them. They have done yeoman's work in protecting New Mexico's many military installations, but the social problems of our state remain intransigent.,The challenge ahead for this duo is to look beyond the immediate and use up political capital to tackle the issues that face the generations behind them, such as Social Security and Medicare. Pete is in his last term. Maybe Jeff is too. They have the protection to rock the boat and they have the experience. Maybe they will set sail in 04'.

So let the games begin! Happy New Year to you my loyal readers. Please e mail me with your thoughts, news and comments. I too will try to 'step it up a notch' as we watch that gleaming ball usher in 2004 and a new chapter in the never ending saga of La Politica. Again, Happy New Year, and I will see you back here in 04.'

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