Rep. Wilson
She must make a move. Now. Can she? To call the situation dire for ABQ GOP incumbent Heather Wilson is understatement. It's not the amount she is behind in the latest ABQ Journal poll released Sunday; it's the numbers in key groups--Hispanics and Democrats--that point firmly toward a Patricia Madrid victory November 7, unless something big happens soon.

Wilson has never trailed in an ABQ Journal since taking the seat in a special election in June 1998. She does now. It's Madrid 45%, Wilson 42%, undecided 9% and neither 4%. Complete poll article is here. And here is the PDF version.

The survey was taken Tuesday through Thursday and follows two out-of-state polls that had Madrid ahead by eight points. But because this one was taken by Brian Sanderoff's Research & Polling, a firm with extensive state experience, the numbers were anxiously awaited to confirm the Madrid trend. Experts had dismissed the eight point lead in the earlier surveys saying the polling methods showed the tend but exaggerated it towards the Democrat.

If the "neither" category in the Journal poll is removed, Dem pollster Harry Pavlides said we would have Madrid at 46.8% to Heather's 43.7%

Heather is polling only 11% of the Democrats when she needs at least 25%, if not 30% of them Election Night. She garners only 20% of the Hispanics, a collapse from the Journal's first poll of the season when she was getting 35% of this crucial voting bloc. Democrats far outnumber R's. Heather must now move some of them off of Patsy. But how?

HEATHER'S HARSH REALITY

Its true the margin of error in the poll-4.4%--could technically put Heather tied with Madrid or even ahead, but that is extremely unlikely and Republicans know it. We now have three independent polls in a row with Madrid ahead and Republican campaign insiders telling me Wilson's own polling shows her behind. In Washington this weekend, R strategists weighed in with the Washington Post.

"The mood among most GOP strategists...is decidedly downbeat heading into the final 18 days. They see poll after poll showing a growing number of GOP House incumbents in serious danger, including many who just weeks ago were considered relatively safe for reelection. The list of most-imperiled incumbents now includes Reps. Heather A. Wilson (N.M.) and Curt Weldon (Pa.), a top GOP strategist said. " So reported the Post.

Heather has actually lost ground from the last Journal poll which had her tied with Madrid at 44%. The Zogby/Reuters poll and the RT Strategies survey also had her unable to breach the 45% mark, a number seen by polling professionals as critical for an incumbent.

The congressional race goes before the public in a big way Tuesday night at 7 p.m on KOB-TV. For Heather it may be her last best chance to shake the race up. She needs to.

More on Monday.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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