Wednesday, January 09, 2008High Drama And Huge Comebacks In New Hampshire; Hill Chills Obama; McCain Rises; Bill Again Spills; When Does He Quit? Plus: Domenici Endorses Darren![]() How did so many go so wrong--the pollsters, that is. "Polling a primary is always difficult, but polling one where independent voters can vote for either a Democrat or a Republican and can decide to do so on the day of the election makes it especially challenging," explained NM veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff, trying his best to give his brethren some cover. Others, like Dem consultant Harry Pavlides, speculated that ethnic voting played a role in the huge difference between most of the polls and the eventual outcome. "There were voters who switched their minds when they drove up to the polling place, and I think many of them were motivated by race--uncertain whether they wanted to vote for a black candidate." He speculated. ![]() Unfortunately for Big Bill, the polls were only wrong when it came to Hill and Barack. They nailed it when they predicted a mid-single digit finish for the struggling New Mexican; he came in fourth with 5%, following a 2% fourth place showing last week in Iowa. Edwards grabbed 17% for third. Obama was at 37% and Hillary was doing her best not to gloat while bringing home her surprise 39% win. On the Republican side, the race went from muddy to muddier, as 71 year old Arizona Senator John McCain beat up on former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, taking it 37% to 32%. Only months ago, McCain looked like roadkill from Catron County, making his victory all the more sweet. Whether it will sour in South Carolina, as it did in 2000, is the next question. BILL'S LAST STAND? ![]() The Alligators were also talking Tuesday night about another Big Bill problem--his diss of Hillary in Iowa when his supporters were told to take Obama as their second choice--something Bill denies, but not with much believability. The Clintonistas are enraged, meaning no veep slot with Hillary or secretary of state if she makes it to the White House. And wouldn't you know it. The Hillary horse came in last night and the Obama horse faded. Not good for the Guv. Bill left New Hampshire for Santa Fe last night aboard a private jet. His top campaign staff also came back to mull over the next move. If the stuff they are smoking isn't too strong, they will urge Bill to pull the plug on this thing quick because it's looking like dirty bathtub water. Insiders say they would expect Richardson to withdraw with a bang, not a whimper, and stage a final campaign rally where his supporters could let out one last cheer and where some would argue he should run for the US senate seat or as a favorite son in the February 5th Dem caucus. Others would simply sigh in relief that they won't be getting hit up for any more campaign cash. Stay tuned. DOMENICI AND DARREN Pete's letter ![]() The news is another blow to ABQ GOP State Senator Joe Carraro who is White's foe for the GOP nod and who also suffered a Domenici snub last month when the Senator hosted a fundraising reception for White on Capitol Hill. In '98, Pete endorsed Wilson over several GOP foes when the congressional seat was opened up by the death of Republican Steve Schiff. That created a rift that has lasted to this day, but never slowed Wilson. Domenici was a powerful incumbent when he endorsed Wilson. He is now a lame-duck. But the White campaign was not shy about circulating the Domenici letter, taking advantage of his popularity within Republican circles and, more important, tapping into his donor base for campaign cash and squeezing Carraro out. Senator Joe looked for a fig leaf and came up with this: "It is apparent that he is not endorsing White over me, because he would have used my name, and we have supported each other over the years." Like we said, a fig leaf there. Domenici did not mention Joe's name because he didn't have to. The next move insiders are awaiting is Domenici's decision on the Senate race. Will he endorse Heather Wilson over Rep. Steve Pearce? Most observers seem to think that is more a matter of when, not if. Often imitated, but never duplicated, this is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your latest news. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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