Friday, March 14, 2008Our Pre-Primary Pre-Game Show; Can A Nobody Become A Somebody?; We Handicap Outlook For Big Races As D's And R's Get Ready To Party![]() ![]() Hopefuls who get the 20% will have bragging rights; those who don't will dismiss the voting as coming from hard-core activists and not reflective of the electorate that will show up to vote June 3rd. We should also mention history. No candidate who has failed to get 20% at a party pre-primary has gone on to win the primary election. That is a precedent that could be ended this year, but it tells us that the eventual party nominees are more than likely to come from those who make the magic 20%. With all of the above in mind, we head out to the track to handicap Pre-Primary 2008. ![]() US SENATE D'S--Tom Udall, leaving the Northern House seat to run for Senate, can spend his time polishing his pre-primary speech. Since Marty Chavez dropped out, the Dem deal has been done. THIRD DISTRICT DEMOCRATS--Ben Ray Lujan has been called "frontrunner" so long in the race for the Democratic nomination for the Northern congressional seat that he could make it his middle name. But like any frontrunner, he will be expected to deliver. Rival Don Wiviott has been working hard and spending heavy. He is the only US House candidate in the state up on TV. He is expected to easily hit the 20% mark. If he goes substantially higher or pulls an upset by coming in first, Lujan would take a hit and perceptions of this race would change. Can a third candidate get the 20%? Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya thinks so and that he will be that candidate. Montoya needs a strong showing to slow the opinion that the Northern race is becoming a two man affair. Other contenders include Benny Shendo, Rudy Martin, and Jon Adams. A 20% showing by any of them would be a surprise and earn their candidacies a second look. THIRD DISTRICT R's---Rio Rancho contractor Dan East and former Senator Domenici aide and attorney Marco Gonzales should both get over 20%. These appear to be two solid candidates. Unfortunately for them, this district is the most likely to stay in the Dem column come November. EVEN MORE HANDICAPPING ![]() SECOND DISTRICT R'S---This is the wild and crazy one. Money leaders and Lincoln County ranchers Aubrey Dunn, Jr. and Ed Tinsley are already nuking each other in mail pieces. Dunn's crowd says Tinsley is weak going into the pre-primary and that he might not manage to get 20% of delegate support, despite raising over $500,000 for his campaign, $200,000 of it from his own pocket. Tinsley's campaign is making no predictions, which means he may not be sure of his standing. If he doesn't get the 20%, it will be a setback, but his bank account will keep him in solid standing. T or C Realtor Earl Greer is confident he will be one of the top finishers. He needs to show strength to prevent this race from fast becoming a two man deal. The same goes for Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman. FIRST DISTRICT DEMS--Money leader Martin Heinrich should have no problem taking the top spot at the pre-primary. Some of his operatives talked of keeping any other candidate from getting 20%, but it appears Michelle Lujan Grisham will breach that mark. Grisham needs the showing to keep alive her position as a favorite of party moderates in contrast with Heinrich's liberal support. The other contenders--Rebecca Vigil-Giron, Robert Pidcock and Jessica Wolfe--are not expected to make the 20% and plan to make the ballot via petitions. Still, Vigil-Giron is a wild card. Could she muster up late support to make the 20%? FIRST DISTRICT R'S--The campaign between Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and ABQ State Senator Joe Carraro has turned bitter and become a proxy for the war between factions of the GOP. But this is really no contest. White has the endorsement of retiring Senator Domenici and other party establishment figures. The issue is whether Joe can get 20% of the delegates and score a moral victory. The pre-primary voting will take place Saturday afternoon. We'll post the results for you as they come in. E-mail us here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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