Monday, March 17, 2008Pre-Primary '08; The Post-Game Show; Heather's Loss; Udall's Wait; Ben Ray's Sunshine; It's All On Your Monday Blog
Heather Wilson
![]() Granted, Heather's weekend loss was at a party convention and not at the ballot box, but it produced the headlines the Pearce camp wanted. In the Sunday Journal it was front-paged as: "Pearce Tops Wilson On Ballot." In the Las Cruces Sun-News: "U.S. Senate candidate Pearce beats Wilson at GOP convention." Pearce's braggadocio before the Saturday pre-primary in which he predicted "a huge victory" made his 54.51% to Wilson's 45.49%win seem smaller than it should have, but those Sunday headlines noting Wilson's first ever political loss will be the lasting memory of Pre-Primary 2008. WHAT NOW? With her pre-primary loss and a mid-January state GOP poll showing Pearce leading 38% to 35%, the pros will peg Wilson as the underdog for the June 3rd primary. Her campaign hopes that primary voters are not as conservative as those who attended the weekend pre-primary, but there are very few "moderates" left in the GOP. That's why after years of labeling herself an "independent" voice, she is now calling herself the "common sense conservative." How Wilson can crack into Pearce's conservative base is her conundrum. Going more negative will be the likely response. Meantime, Pearce, strong in the South and doing well in the North, can now focus where he needs to--on ABQ. If, in the coming weeks, he looks as if he is running for Mayor of the city, he's doing the right thing. UDALL'S WAIT ![]() BECKY'S POWER Three term NM Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron only received 11% of the delegate support at the Dem pre-primary convention, prompting the Alligators to ask whether Becky will stay in the ABQ congressional battle. Her power now may be as a spoiler to the other female Hispanic in the race--Michelle Lujan Grisham. Grisham garnered 28% at the pre-primary to win the second spot on the ballot. Martin Heinrich took first with 56% and will get the top ballot slot. Vigil-Giron will have to file petition signatures by March 25th to get on the ballot. Can Grisham or her supporters somehow persuade Vigil-Giron to quit the race and give Grisham a chance at consolidating Hispanic support? Also, can Grisham steer her ship towards the unclaimed seniors and Reagan Democrats that have yet to find a home? As for Martin, he would probably like to lock Becky up in a mountain cabin where Michelle couldn't get at her until after June 3rd. Stay tuned. A $30,000 BIRTHDAY 29 year old Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley is trying to parlay his Saturday pre-primary win (49%) into something more than good press. He says he now is challenging his supporters to raise $30,000 for him to celebrate his 30th birthday April 1st. While McCamley scored a big win over Southern Dem congressional rival Harry Teague (36%), the Hobbs oilman has deep pockets. He also is a former two term Lea County commissioner. Teague's old friend, Lt. Governor Diane Denish, was working the convention on his behalf Saturday. Teague's camp says McCamley worked most of last year lining up delegates while Teague entered the race much later. But McCamley says his "compelling message," not Teague's money will carry the day. BEN RAY'S SUNSHINE ![]() Wiviott has fueled his campaign with nearly $600,000 in personal cash. Lujan's camp is holding a blizzard of fundraisers this month and will probably not spend as much as Wiviott, but will be competitive. Lujan is also expected to get the nod from the Conservation Voters NM. HISTORY LESSON No candidate who has failed to get 20% delegate support at their party's pre-primary has ever gone on to win in the June 3rd primary. Judging from the weekend results, we expect that axiom to hold up in 2008.... FILING DAY TUESDAY ![]() Email your news and comments and help us cover NM politics. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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