Friday, May 16, 2008Pearce Up By 3 In SurveyUSA Poll; Udall Strong, Plus: Dunn On The Attack On TV, And: Wondering About Wiviott On Your NM Web Leader![]() Insiders have been saying they believe Pearce has the edge in this race, positioned as he is as the most conservative candidate. Also, turnout could favor the southern NM congressman. That would put Pearce ahead a couple of more points in the polling. Last Friday Senator Pete Domenici refused to make an endorsement in the contest, a major boost for Pearce as Wilson is a longtime Domenici favorite. SurveyUSA makes this point about their poll: "Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released six months ago, Pearce is up 12 points. Wilson is down 10 points." Pearce leads by 22% when you combine the north and the south--58% to 36%. Wilson takes Bernalillo County by 25 points--61% to 36%. The key for a Wilson comeback is big Bernalillo County. "SurveyUSA estimates that 40% of Republican voters will come from Bernalillo County. The larger the turnout from that county, the better Wilson does." The poll will be greeted with open arms by NM Dems. It shows their soon-to-be Senate nominee, Tom Udall, trouncing Pearce in a hypothetical match-up 60% to 36%. He beats Wilson 61% to 35%. Wilson has been arguing in campaign media that she is the stronger choice for the Republicans, but this poll gives her no help at all on that score. The complete poll is here. DUNN GOES NEGATIVE Aubrey Dunn has come gunning for Ed Tinsley and Monty Newman. He hit with negative ABQ TV Thursday night as the battle for the GOP Southern congressional nomination escalated. Dunn attacked Tinsley for having a soft stance on illegal immigration and attacked Newman for being a tax raiser while Mayor of Hobbs. No word on the size of the TV buy, but Alligators checking in here said Dunn's move feels like the right one at the right time. Alligators and insiders following the action report they see Tinsley and Dunn fighting for the lead with former Mayor Newman breaking into third place with that big TV buy from the National Association of Realtors. Tinsley is now nuking Newman in the mail as he did last week to Dunn. But Dunn's TV attack raises the stakes. Will Tinsley turn the cheek or strike back? Leaving the aggressive Dunn to his own devices seems dangerous. TV TALK McCamley & Teague ![]() ![]() McCamley is limited in what he can put on the air. His cash on hand at the end of April was in the $200k area. Teague is independently wealthy and has put nearly $700,000 of his money into the race. His campaign says if he thinks it necessary the candidate will come with more in the final weeks. The campaign of Dem congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich says his initial TV buy is for $50,000 over four days, not the seven days we initially blogged. They say his TV for the rest of the campaign will "be sizable." The campaign of Michelle Lujan Grisham said Friday night her first TV spot will air this weekend. Our media mavens previously reported she had bought time for the final week of the campaign. No word on the size of the buy, but Grisham had less than $100,000 in the bank at the end of March. WIVIOTT'S WALLET Wiviott ![]() E-mail your news, comments and campaign news, and thanks for tuning in. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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