Monday, November 03, 2008Election Eve 2008: Maximum Pressure Still On R's, And: Big Early Turnout; Our Analysis, Plus: Our Traditional Pre-Game Show Today at 5 On 89.1 FM![]() Historically, New Mexican Republicanism has attracted swing voters and conservative Dems because of its economic views. In 2008, in the final hours, the R's have turned to their quasi-religious base. Nothing more need be said at how marginalized the state's minority party has become in the midst of an economic maelstrom. If the state goes deep blue, as it seems it will, and chooses an all Dem congressional delegation as well as increasing the D's majority in the Legislature, we could return to the days when it was the two wings of the Democratic party--moderates vs. liberals--that provided the checks and balances while a feeble GOP lies dormant. The economic devastation to the balance sheets of individuals has been colossal. It will not soon be forgotten. Religious and social conservatism works best when elections are about principles. But this election is about putting food on the table. You can't eat principles. If the Republican Party of New Mexico is not to wander in the wilderness for a decade or more, it will have to start feeding the voters what they need, not what a small band of them want. WHO'S LEFT? ![]() Even if a candidate has a strong performance in the Election Day voting, if they failed in the early vote, they have their work cut out for them. County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver managed to get the early and absentee posted early primary election night and she says she will do it again this Election Night. If she does, we will have a very good idea very early of what the night has in store. ACROSS NEW MEXICO Statewide we are looking for a turnout of about 850,000 or 72% of the 1, 184,000 registered. Will we be too low? The consensus estimate among the experts we interviewed has Obama taking the state with about 53% of the vote. Our turnout calculations say that would bring the Illinois Senator in with about 450,000 to the Arizona Senator's 400,000 or so, giving Obama a 50,000 vote win and our state's five electoral votes. Bill Clinton carried NM by 48,800 in a three way prez race in 1992. 570,000 votes were cast that year. Only once since we became a state in 1912 has NM not voted for the winner of the national popular vote. That was in '76 when we chose Ford over winner Carter. PAYNE FORECASTS R PAIN Greg Payne ![]() An electoral blow-out for Obama, but the popular vote is closer than most expect. Obama gets 353 electoral votes with 53% of the popular vote. McCain takes 185 electoral with 46%. Dems have a clean sweep of the federal delegation in New Mexico and pick up a handful of seats in the Legislature. The vote in New Mexico mirrors the nation: 53% Obama vs. 46% for McCain. Minor parties get just 1 percent. A bright spot for the GOP--Despite heavy Democrat turnout, Lisa Torraco wins the race for Bernalillo County district attorney over incumbent Democrat Kari Brandenburg. Payne now works for ABQ Dem Mayor Marty Chavez as his director of transit. Torraco winning may be wishful thinking if Obama blows the doors off in ABQ. WEATHER WISE It will be windy and cooler in parts of the state Tuesday, but no Election Day winter storm is forecast which could help the R's if one hit the north. Temps will be in the 60's for much of the state Tuesday, but we'll check again as the weather can change faster than a political pundit changing his mind. Back in 2000, a snowstorm that swiped conservative SE NM is given partial credit for Bush closing the gap with Al Gore. However, northern snowstorms are more common and they hurt the Democrats more than the R's. BLOCK VS. LASS ![]() In ABQ, PRC Dem incumbent Jason Marks is well-positioned. He is an incumbent in a district that was designed for a Republican. But he appears to have out-campaigned his R foe, Bernalillo County Commissioner Tim Cummins. Marks is also benefitting from the big Obama surge in the ABQ area. Some top Dems fear a PRC, a very powerful agency that regulates the state's utilities, could be controlled by a troika of R's David King and Cummins and and Dem Block. That, they say, would be a five member commission that would tilt away from the consumer. Their fears seem to have subsided as Marks has pulled ahead in the insider polling GAY BASH REACTION Reaction to that hit piece we posted Friday from the state GOP implying that Victor Raigoza, the Dem opponent of GOP ABQ North Valley State Senator John Ryan, is gay and "radical" for holding gay-friendly issues positions. Linda Siegel, who lobbies for Equality NM, writes: Who is that NM Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual and Transgender Society that endorsed Victor Raigoza? We in the gay community have never heard of it and might like to join. Seriously though, the Republican Party has within its very midst "radicals" who want to tear down Republican values--radicals like Republican state representatives Kathy McCoy, Justine Fox-Young and Senator Diane Snyder. They support domestic partnership legislation for gay and straight people. Guess the big Republican tent is not going to be well decorated. WANT IT CRAZIER? ![]() THIRD PARTY PREZ Why haven't third party prez candidates like Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr caught on this cycle? We put the question to politico Steve Cabiedes, himself once a member of the Green Party. "The more important people feel a race is, the less they vote a third party candidate...Also, you have to buy into the argument that there isn't a dime's worth of difference between the two candidates. When they fell there is a major difference between the two candidates they will not vote third party. The biggest selling point is that the two big ones don't offer you a real choice." Right now the two major parties seem to be accentuating their differences." Barr and Nader and other third party candidates seem to be headed toward getting around two percent of the vote or about 16,000 ballots. Steve will be back with us Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM collecting early returns and providing analysis. PRE-GAME IS ON THE AIR TODAY Today at 5 p.m. it will be time for our traditional, live Election Eve special on KANW 89.1 FM. The one hour broadcast will feature top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland, Democrat John Wertheim, Republican State Rep. Larry Larranaga and ABQ Journal Washington correspondent Michael Coleman. We'll run down the key races and hear our panel's predictions so join us for the fun. The program will also be streamed on the Web. ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE ![]() What an historic night it's going to be. You can catch us on the dial or on the Web where the program will be streamed from the KANW site. This is commercial-free programming so you won't miss any of the breaking action. The experience of my NM broadcast analysts is unmatched. All have more than 20 years experience in the game. KRQE-TV will have a camera in our studios to tap into what we are doing, so look for us during their coverage. For a true understanding of what is happening in state politics, there is simply no place like KANW on Election Night. Thanks to Coca-Cola as well as ABQ's Coca-Cola Bottling Company, Bill Campbell Agency, Realtors and Serrano and Sons, Construction, for helping to make possible our pre-game show and Election Night coverage. E-mail us here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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