Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich, going for complete victory, not a nose across the finish line, is accusing Barela of advocating privatization of Social Security--long known as the third rail of American politics because those who touch it are instantly electrocuted. But in moving to slam the door on Barela before heavy early voting starts Saturday, Heinrich opened it by coming with an ad that lacks firm evidence to support his claim. He says because Barela has been endorsed by the FreedomWorks PAC which supports privatization, so does Barela. From the ad:

Barela sides with the politicians and special interests who want to privatize it. Meaning Barela and friends would risk Social Security in the stock market.

But that's like saying Heinrich supports all the positions of the dozens of PAC's he has happily taken cash from. This ad has high emotional impact. It features a 69 year old Hispanic woman who sternly warns Barela in a Spanish accent, "Mr. Barela, don't mess with my Social Security." It first sent Barela back on his heels and then he came out wildly swinging:

Heinrich has launched his most desperate, cowardly attack to date, in an effort to distract New Mexico voters from his unpopular voting record in Congress...Using no citations...Heinrich tells an outright lie in claiming that Jon Barela would privatize Social Security. In fact, Barela is on record opposing the privatization of Social Security and has opposed raising the retirement age for Social Security and cutting Social Security benefits...

CONSERVATIVE RAGE

Barela's conservative base, sensing an inflection point in this campaign and outraged over the misleading ad, flooded the airwaves of radio talk giant KKOB-AM urging the 50 year old attorney to call Heinrich out once and for all.

The cries for action grew so loud that Barela himself called in to express his disgust with his 39 year old rival. Adding to the drama was a call critical of Heinrich from Heather Wilson, the Republican who held the ABQ seat before Heinrich. That drove it home that this is truly the point where this campaign has reached critical mass.

But expressions and actions are two different paths. Will Barela go all-in and forcefully respond directly to the ad that could end it all for him? Or will he demur, deciding that tangling with a Democrat over Social Security is like trying to wrestle honey away from a Grizzly?

Can Barela's team equal or exceed the emotion that Heinrich created with this spot by exploring its deception and thereby call Heinrich's character into question?

Nothing less would appear to do as Barela lags the congressman in all the polls, even as he maintains the contest is a dead heat. However, significant third party money is coming in against Heinrich, with another $500,000 being bought by the conservative American Action Network. They're spending $19 million in 22 House districts.

Making the right move at the right time. That's the key in high-stakes poker, and it's the same in the crucial battle to represent the New Mexican people in the halls of power in Washington. Heinrich has now boldly pushed his chips to the center. If it pays off big, he might not have another tough race for years.

Remember, it was Sanchez who first floated to us the idea of using the state's $14 billion in permanent funds to fill the state budget hole. We still think that is where he is headed if the deficit projections don't come down.

Maybe he's playing a little politics here, but Mayor Berry's resolution supporting Kirtland Air Force Base could help undo some of the damage done when the four Democratic members of the council voted for a resolution asking that nuclear weapons said to be stored at Kirtland be removed to Texas. The five R councilors voted it down.

Berry's resolution notes the $5.6 billion impact of Kirtland and Sandia Labs in urging the council to adopt it at their meeting next Monday. The five R's can be expected to support the resolution. The four Dems would be best advised to go along in the middle of an election season where jobs and the economy are the number one issue. If they don't, the R's are sure to score political points.

But this is nonpartisan stuff or at least it should be. The base could again be targeted for closure in the near future and a resolution with all nine councilors in support would help repair the damage done by that earlier resolution.

SWINGING RIGHT

Also from City Hall, the Republican majority council swings hard to the right as it forms a redistricting committee to draw new council boundaries based on this year's census. Attorney Mickey Barnett and former Attorney General Hal Stratton are top names on the panel. They are known for fierce partisanship, putting Dems on notice that there could be a move to strengthen the GOP on the council. The most prominent Dem on the panel is ABQ State Senator Linda Lopez, but it's anyone's guess these days on how Linda will turn. The redistricting is expected to take place late this year.

RICHARD VS. WALLACE

The Denish-Martinez contest isn't the only one in the state featuring two women and drawing lots of attention. Up in Los Alamos nine-term GOP incumbent State Rep. Jeanette Wallace, 76, is facing a spirited challenge from Democrat and third grade teacher Stephanie Richard, 36, who grew up in Silver City. R's think Jeanette will hang on, but this would be a good pick-up for the Dems and help balance out some of the losses they expect elsewhere.

LET THEM USE FOOD STAMPS

Las Cruces area State Rep. Andy Nunez , the 74 year old chairman of the state House Agriculture and Water Resources Committee, reveals how even during this Great Recession major segments of the state Democratic Party have become completely disconnected from middle-class and lower-income New Mexicans:

"I would not oppose a bill to reinstate the food tax. It doesn't really hurt the real poor because most of them are on food stamps," said Nuñez..

Well, it may not hurt the "real poor" but what about the secretary making $30,000 a year and can't get food stamps. Or a seasonal construction worker making $25,000 a year?

Andy is in a district that can swing Republican, but taxing food isn't going to get the Democratic Party where it needs to go in this new age of austerity.

HER MURKY MESSAGE

The murky message of Diane Denish continues to aggravate the Alligators who are now getting quite pointed in their analysis. An example:

If Denish loses it will because she is the least defined Democratic candidate to run for a major New Mexico office in years. She has allowed her opponent to define her--the Richardson affiliation being the most damaging.

A Denish loss likely will rank as the biggest example of political hubris in state history. In light of the Tea Party movement and the visceral anger that started growing last summer during the health-care debate, Denish should have come out swinging for the fence with something, anything bold enough to grab voters emotionally. Instead at this late date, she continues to pursue this nebulous "New Mexico families" strategy.

Families don't vote. Pissed-off, motivated people angered by their current condition vote..

Amen. We would add that in these tenuous times voters are looking for strong leadership. Martinez's pledge of "bold change" is sloganeering without example, but the campaign has revealed she has an inner confidence and a desire to be in front of the parade. Those are character traits that can have profound appeal with an electorate marinating in insecurity.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010

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