Will Medicare be the Republican's Waterloo in New Mexico 2012? Who knows? But at this early stage it is a certain headache for the GOP hopefuls lining up for the state's open Senate seat and the ABQ congressional seat.

ABQ Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich, seeking the '12 Senate nod, is coming with a major blast of the "Ryan Budget Plan" that would revamp Medicare. He does so in a just-received mailer to his constituents that was paid for by taxpayers. In it he dubs the budget passed in April by the Republican-controlled House the "Ryan Budget to end Medicare." He charges that it would "end the Medicare guarantee for seniors and "eliminates Medicare as we know it."

Coming in an official House communication and not a campaign piece give the charges extra kick.

The controversial remake of Medicare has already sent GOP US Senate hopeful Heather Wilson to the sidelines. She has refused to comment on the Ryan budget. And GOP consultant Dick Morris writes that the House leadership should have another vote on the budget so House freshmen can reverse their support of the Medicare plan or else face the prospect of being flunked for re-election in 2012.

Heinrich and the Dems have been on the defensive because of the sluggish economy. Medicare and Social Security are giving them a chance to get on the offensive as well as change the terms of the debate.

We've been here before. In 2010, with GOP opponent Jon Barela closing in on him, Heinrich came with a TV ad featuring a senior citizen who seared Barela by warning him "not to mess with my Social Security. Barela had refused to rule out privatizing the popular program. While some of his supporters insist another ad accusing him of being a lobbyist had more impact, the Social Security ad was devastating to Barela among seniors and may have cost him the couple thousand votes he lost by.

Now it's the privatizing of Medicare. And again it is going to be very tricky for Republicans in moderate New Mexico. Where will ABQ GOP congressional candidate Dan Lewis come down? And when will Heather come off the sidelines? She will have to eventually.

The bottom line is that if national R's don't provide an escape hatch on Medicare, New Mexico Republicans could suffer disproportionally. Don't say we didn't tell you.

HEINRICH ROOTS

Martin Heinrich is getting some good press--in Nevada. It's little known that he is a native of the Silver State. He was born there and moved as a youngster to Missouri and later New Mexico. His Nevada background was enough for the Las Vegas Review-Journal to take recent notice as they talked up his Senate candidacy:

His paternal grandfather, Olaf Heinrich, ran a feedlot in the farming town. His maternal granddad, Lester Bybee, was a Battle Mountain gold miner. And his father, Pete Heinrich, spent many years toiling in mine exploration for Anaconda Copper before becoming a utility company lineman and moving the family to a small ranch in Missouri.

But they always found their way back to Nevada for vacations and family visits. For a youngster raised with a respect for the land and the outdoors, Fallon meant alfalfa fields and irrigation ditches, big shade trees, and a backyard that stretched for endless miles.

"I remember visiting my grandparents as a kid," Heinrich recalled...They lived in a trailer in the middle of nowhere near some mine. It was just a great adventure for a young kid to wander around the sagebrush, find rattlesnakes, and visit with my grandparents."

Those are some authentic working class roots. Now that he's running for the Senate, will you see Martin look to the Nevada establishment--those who run the state's casinos--for a bit of campaign cash?