Friday, July 25, 2014

King Gets A Break: Rasmussen Poll Says Guv Race A Dead Heat; GOP Scorns Survey, But Window Opens For King To Change Perception Of Contest 

King & Haaland
Perception often drives reality so a Rasmussen poll--scorned mightily by the GOP but showing the 2014 race for Governor in a dead heat--gives Dem Guv nominee Gary King his first real chance to argue that he can win the race--a notion constantly belittled by the conventional wisdom.

The survey--the first independent one since the June 3 primary--has Gov. Martinez and King tied at 43% and 7% of voters undecided. Rasmussen says "some other candidate" is the choice of 7% of likely voters, even though there is no other candidate on the ballot.

The R's say Rasmussen polled too many young voters and not enough older ones. They point out that King leads by 30% among young voters--an unlikely scenario.

The GOP anxiety over the poll was somewhat amusing as Rasmussen is often cited as a "Republican-leaning" pollster. But there was no anxiety in the King camp--only glee.

What this shows is that New Mexicans are ready for a Governor that will stand up for our kids, teachers, families and our state. . .

So what does it mean on the street? Back to that perception vs. reality matter and the comments of veteran Dem consultant Mark Fleisher:

The poll is the first really good news for Gary. Whether it is accurate or not, it is the first independent poll of the race and will cause the Democratic base to take a second look at the contest. It will help him with fund-raising. The best thing that could happen is that the poll becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and causes Dem voters to start stampeding toward King. Then the perception would indeed become the reality.

But King will need more than a poll. He needs money and messaging. He had only $116,000 in his bank account at last count compared to over $4 million for Susana. And how long will this window of opportunity stay open? How fast can he act? Will he seize the moment or revert to Carpe MaƱana? Stay tuned.


The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday of this week just as the horrendous news broke that three teenagers had bludgeoned to death two homeless men on ABQ's westside. Did that bleak news influence the Rasmussen survey? Something to ponder. . .

Since the June primary these are the polls: Martinez's camp released a poll showing her beating King 54% to 38%, the state GOP had a poll showing her winning 53% to 40% and a King internal poll showed her winning 45% to 39%.


Reader Harold Gerhenson writes:

While we're talking about the lack of leadership in New Mexico and real demands for change, take a look at the pablum in the New Mexico Voices for Children press releases and blog posts on the release of the devastating Kids Count figures. They point the finger at "the recession" when they should be calling out State Senator John Arthur Smith--chairman of the Senate Finance Committee--who for years has blocked access to the state Permanent Fund for early childhood programs. They should also be naming Governor Martinez's destructive policies so that everyone understands that these statistics are not just bad luck but part of the Governor's plan. When our advocates won't take a stand, we're really in trouble.

NM was ranked 49th in the USA in child well-being in the latest Kids Count survey. That's up from 50th in the previous annual survey. 

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