Here's the map of the 2012 New Mexico presidential results and as Democrats gather today in Philadelphia for their national convention it's hard to see how it will change significantly in 2016.

The three big prizes in state politics--Bernalillo, Dona Ana and Santa Fe counties, are all solidly blue when it comes to national elections. Combined with die-hard Northern Dem Hispanic counties, that's where Hillary Clinton should win the state's five electoral votes.

Trump's acceptance speech averaged 32.2 million viewers. . . Mitt Romney's GOP acceptance speech in 2012 averaged 30.3 million viewers. Eight years ago, John McCain's speech averaged almost 39 million viewers, "about 8.6 million more people than last night's viewership," Nielsen said,

To us that signals some Trump fatigue. The ratings for Clinton's acceptance speech could also see a similar ho-hum pattern as both candidates are unpopular with a majority of likely voters.

Trump would benefit from any dip in turnout but it would have to drop dramatically for him to get the race anywhere near in play.

THE JOHNSON FACTOR

So what about former NM Governor Johnson? Could he make a difference here? It's doubtful.

That 3.55% of the vote he received here four years ago was his strongest statewide performance in the nation. If history is true to form Johnson is headed toward another low single digit finish here. Early polls usually show the strongest support for third party candidates but that support fades as the election nears.

Rather than a rush to third party candidates, we lean toward the view that many voters fed up with both Clinton and Trump will opt out of voting, leading to at least a slight dip in turnout. Still, there will be more third party power this year.

If Johnson doubled his 2012 NM performance he would get 7.1 percent. If you're betting the "over-under" on him, we would put the early line at 6 percent and most of that would come from conservatives which will hurt Trump more than Clinton.

Will he average 15% in the national polls leading up to the presidential debates and be allowed on the TV stage? The short answer? No.

WHAT HURTS HILLARY

Here in a in a nutshell is why Clinton will have a harder time driving turnout than Obama:

What is it about this brilliant and accomplished woman. . .that makes so many people certain she is an incurable liar? More than anything else about Clinton – her occasional tin ear for politics, her seeming inability to connect with large crowds, her ultra-cautiousness – it is the trust issue that could yet cost her a general election she should otherwise win, given her opponent’s vulnerabilities.

How much we see of Hillary, if any of her, is uncertain, given that the state does not have swing status anymore. But her newly minted running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, might be a natural for a New Mexico stop or two:

The son of a welder who owned a small metalworking shop, Mr. Kaine, a Roman Catholic, grew up around Kansas City, Mo. He attended a Jesuit school and took a break from law school at Harvard to spend time as a Catholic missionary in Honduras, an experience that his family has said shaped him and helped him become fluent in Spanish.

TRUMP DOWN BALLOT

Expect to see the Dems try to exploit Trump's unpopular stances with their brethren in every race possible. In fact, it's Dem Linda Stover, running for the way down ballot race of Bernalillo County clerk, who is among the first out of the gate and playing the anti-Trump card in a fund-raising letter: