Sen. Cervantes

State Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Joe Cervantes engineered the surprise of Session 2020 when he pulled a rabbit out of his hat and managed to usher through the state Senate the controversial Red Flag law that stirred emotions statewide. Before the vote we wrote:

Cervantes says he will now seek a compromise on Red Flag. Thirty of 33 NM county sheriffs oppose the law. If he can come up with a bill that passes the Senate, his new nickname might be "Joe the Magician."

That nickname may not stick but the Red Flag victory does appear to mark a turn in the fortunes of the 59 year old Cervantes who has served in the House and Senate for 20 years (the Senate since 2013) and is often cited as the legislator with the most unrealized potential.

For years the articulate Las Cruces lawyer has tried to break through only to fall short. As chairman of the House Judiciary Committee he participated in an ill-fated coup attempt of then-Speaker Ben Ray Lujan. He was forever toying with a run for the southern congressional seat only to retreat. Finally, in 2018 he pulled the trigger and sought the Dem Guv nomination, but the effort was half-hearted and he finished third behind MLG.

Then came one of those out of the blue moments--the arrest of Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Richard Martinez on aggravated drunk driving charges. The mishap cost Martinez the chairmanship and in slid Cervantes.

Martinez sat on the Red Flag bill in 2019, a major priority of Gov. MLG. Cervantes played ball, despite an uproar in rural New Mexico, and pushed through amendments that got the bill before the full Senate. The final vote in favor Friday was 22-20.  The bill is expected to win approval from the House and be signed by the woman who dashed Cervantes' gubernatorial dream, but who now is a key ally in his transition from just one of the pack to pack leader.

The Red Flag vote is a major win for the Fourth Floor as well as Cervantes. Conservative-leaning Democrat George Muñoz of Gallup did not, as many expect, vote with other like-minded Dems and the chamber's Republcians to stop the bill. His vote was so key that Lt. Gov. Morales issued a statement saying: "I applaud State Senator George Muñoz for his very courageous vote." (Some goodies from the Guv to follow?).

Is the Munoz defection the prelude to the gradual waning of the conservative Senate coalition that has held sway for so long? That seems likely. The pressure on the Senate to moderate is enormous. The House today is a blazing blue, aflame with liberal rhetoric and passing legislation that represents the views of the major cities.

The failure of the rural block to stop the Red Flag bill had sheriffs, gun rights advocates and conservatives of all stripes flocking to the capitol in protest. It was a seminal defeat for them and will be followed by more setbacks as the state's population continues to realign.

By design the Senate is more restrained than the House and is not about to become a hotbed of liberal activism. However, it will move toward the center and center-left more frequently. The Red Flag decision signals more Blue votes to come in the years ahead.

SENATE POSITIONING

It appears not all of the six GOP US Senate candidates will get considered for an official spot on the June primary ballot when state Republicans hold their March 7 pre-primary convention. Candidates last week filed required petition signatures with the secretary of state to earn that consideration. One of our Alligators has the news:

Joe, Candidates were required to turn in 1,503 valid signatures from registered Republican voters. Rick  Montoya turned in 39 sheets of signatures. Assuming every sheet was full (of which many were not) and that every signature was valid, he'd have 780 signatures. In other words, he is not going to make it to the pre-primary. 

Gavin Clarkson turned in 1,934 signatures. That gives him, should all of his signatures be valid, a buffer of 431 signatures. Mick Rich didn't turn in many more signatures than Clarkson and Louie Sanchez not many more than Rich. Mark Ronchetti turned in over 10,000 signatures to lead the field. Elisa Martinez came in strong with between 4 and 6 thousand signatures. Ronchetti might take a hard look at the signatures of some of his weaker competitors and consider challenges to see if he can bump them from pre-primary consideration. Ditto for Elisa.