Yvette Herrell

The do or die race for the southern congressional race is rapidly taking shape. The latest is the first TV ad from Republican Yvette Herrell who has watched from the sidelines as Dem Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (XTS) has aired ads this past month.

Herrell's first effort was greeted with mixed reviews from the political intelligentsia. The ad pivots from Herrell's unabashed primary praise for Trump to an appeal to Dems to crossover and support her. The script:

From chile fields, to oil fields, farms to your front yard, I've heard you. New Mexico is done with DC division. I'm Yvette Herrell. In Congress I'll work across the lines that divide us. To safely reopen our economy and I'll promote innovation in health care to drive down costs and keep our families safe. I'm Yvette Herrell and I approved this message because no matter where you live, work or play, I'll stand with you.

While competently produced the ad flies in the face of the theory that Herrell must capture GOP votes that didn't show up in 2018 when XTS narrowly won. Those voters are not as concerned about DC division as they are with having conservative representation.

Herrell's pivot to this soft center comes as insider polling shows Trump barely beating Biden in the southern distirct, or even losing. But Herrell can't leave Trump behind, no matter how tempting. All agree he must win by a healthy margin for her to win. Her  pledge to "work across the lines" may signal the campaign is worried about Trump's standing and a large turnout in November, but if she doesn't stay at the dance with the one who brought her and patiently wait for a Trump rebound she again risks being left at the altar Election Night.

A GOP Alligator believes Herrell must move now on XTS. They opined:

The weak link for Torres Small is authenticity. At heart she is a dyed in the wool liberal out of sync with the district. Exposing this lack of authenticity can bring her down. Instead, this ad mimics (XTS) with the working "across lines" spiel. It doesn't hurt her but it does not advance the ball for Herrell.

Rep. Torres Small

Of course, this is art not science. After all, XTS gives a shout out Trump in her TV, presuming her liberal base looks away as she tries to soften GOP opposition. So maybe Herrell's soft shoe on health care costs and "safely reopening" are the right tone for an electorate afflicted by pandemic strife and wary of negativity. We shall see.

Meanwhile, GOP leaders and the head of the NM Oil and Gas Association are having a major run-in over that endorsement of Herrell by Hobbs oilman and former one term Dem southern Congressman Harry Teague. Top R's, including GOP Chair Steve Pearce and House Minority Leader Townsend, ripped NMOGA Executive Director Ryan Flynn for his comments defending XTS's oil positions in the wake of the Teague endorsement. The R's flailed away at Flynn in an op-ed:

. . . Flynn immediately put out a statement from NMOGA praising Torres Small, saying she “has stood up to those in her party who want to completely ban fracking.” In fact, Torres Small did the exact opposite, when just this past February, she joined with the radicals in Congress and voted for a fracking ban. Not only does Flynn’s statement embarrass NMOGA, its timing uncovers Flynn’s premeditated poor decision to use the association as a political weapon. Getting NMOGA involved in this race is not only unethical, but also potentially illegal and risks permanent damage to the association’s reputation. So, what is Flynn’s motive? We aren’t exactly sure, but this pattern of lies has effectively destroyed any trust we had in him. . .While we cannot dictate to NMOGA who should be running its organization, we would suggest the association consider putting a person in its leadership who does not spread misinformation.

It is a rare occasion when the oil industry and the R's split. This bloody internecine combat is relished by the XTS forces and one of them rubbed it in:

The statement from NMOGA on Torres-Small is remarkable. It shows the depth of her work and her willingness to work with everyone. Even more remarkable is the fact that NMOGA came with a statement at all - an indication that Herrell does not have broad support from the industry.

Herrell not only needs a unified GOP  but one that's also on war footing. Right now, she has neither.

By the way, Claire Chase a former chair of the NMOGA, and who lost that bitter GOP primary battle to Herrell, moved to quell speculation heard here that she was sympathetic with Flynn's statement:

I am supporting Yvette, sent her a campaign contribution, and have encouraged everyone else who has the means to do so.

Pundit opinion in DC was initially unanimous that the southern race is a "toss-up" but that has changed, with Nathan Gonzales of Inside Politics now calling it "Tilt Democrat" and U of Virginia analyst Larry Sabato labeling it "Lean Dem." The WaPo and Cook Political Report have it a Toss-Up.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020