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Wednesday, November 04, 2020

Election 2020 Results: A Blue Wave Meets A Red Ripple: Everyone Has Something to Celebrate In Split Results; Dem Landslide in Cities And Red Rural Muscle 

The Blue Wave met the Red Ripple in New Mexico Tuesday night giving everyone something to celebrate. The wave swept down La Bajada from Santa Fe and into the ABQ metro, knocking off three GOP Bernalillo County state Senators and leaving only one R standing in the metro. 

BernCo results here. Statewide results here

The wave also knocked the wind out of President Trump handing him a 61 to 37 defeat in BernCo but the blow was softened by the rural Red Ripple and he ended up losing the state and its five electoral votes 54 to 44 percent. 

If only Dem US Senate candidate Ben Ray Lujan could have had that margin against Republican newcomer Mark Ronchetti who was trounced in BernCo by Lujan by 50,000 votes or 57 to 41% but the red rural voters helped him pick up some of the slack and Ronchetti outpaced Trump and he ended the night by keeping Lujan to a somewhat modest 51 to 46 margin with the Libertarian candidate taking 3 percent. 

The surprise of the night was the overall weakness of Rep. Xochitl Torres Small. The race was expected to be a squeaker but Republican Yvette Herrell prevailed by a  healthy 54 to 46 margin. Trump's dominant performance in the southern congressional district, combined with resistance to state Covid restrictions, were pointed out as reasons for the early end of Torres Small's congressional career. There was also this from longtime analyst Greg Payne:

She tried to be all things to all people and ended up nothing to everyone.

That meant she barely threw a bone to the progressive Dems in the district, gambling on R's splitting their tickets. They didn't and the progressives were unenthused with her conservative pivot and it showed in her lack of muscle in Dona Ana County. 

House Speaker Brian Egolf was among many Dems who said that while Torres Small lost her rematch with Herrell she remains a Dem bright light and will be seen again. Meanwhile, Herrell now is the de facto leader of the  forlorn and shrunken NM Republican Party. Can she help rebuild it or will she be a one term wonder, falling to victim to Democratic redistricting in 2021?

TURNOUT 

As promoted, Election 2020 was a turnout record-breaker At 1:30 a.m. today the SOS had recorded about 912,000 votes, eclipsing the previous turnout record of 833,000 of 2012.The turnout was 67.5 percent of registered voters. That fell short of the record of 70.4 percent set in 2008.

TALL NORTHERN WAVE

The Blue Wave was ten feet tall in the northern congressional district and gave Dem Teresa Leger Fernandez an easy 58 to 42 win for the seat being left vacant by Rep. Lujan. In the ABQ district Rep. Deb Haaland had no trouble handling R Michelle Garcia Holmes, winning her second term with the same margin TLF scored--58 to 42 percent. Because of Leger's win the state's five member congressional delegation will for the first time be all women.

While the Dems flipped three BernCo Senate seats, Neomi Martinez Parra could not keep the seat of Deming Senator John Arthur Smith in their corner. She knocked off Smith in the primary but R Crystal Diamond prevailed over her last night in the most expensive state Senate race in the state. 

The race between Dem Pam Cordova and R Josh Sanchez for the Valencia/Cibola county Senate seat that was held by Clemente Sanchez but who was ousted by Cordova in the primary, appeared to go to Sanchez. The contest was a surprise.

With the Diamond win and apparent Sanchez win, the R's made up two of the seats flipped by the Dems in BernCo giving them a net gain of one. Still, the state Senate was charting a more liberal course as a result of the primary when conservative-leaning Dems were knocked off. Nothing last night changes that. The Senate started the night 26 to 16 Dem. 

The ABQ Dem Senate victors were Dem Harold Pope, Jr. over R Sen. Sander Rue; Katy Duhigg over GOP Sen. Candace Gould and Dr. Martin Hickey who beat R John Morton to flip the seat of retiring Senator Bill Payne in the ABQ NE Heights. 

STATE HOUSE RESULTS

The state House started the night 46 to 24 Democrat and will end up close to that when everything is counted. Speaker Brian Egolf says the Dems could end up losing one or pick up a couple when the races are fully accounted for. Again it won't make much difference. The Dems and their commanding majority will remain on a liberal course. 

That constitutional amendment that would abolish the five member Public Regulation Commission (PRC) and replace it with a three member panel appointed by the Governor won 55 to 45 approval.

All the state supreme court and court of appeals races were swept by the Dems, although the red ripple helped curb the margin of victory in the traditionally blue judge seats. 

The Bernalillo County Commission wilL continue to have one GOP member. George Benson chased away a close Dem pursuer to take the NE Heights seat 52 to 48.

RURAL-CITY DIVIDE

Lt. Governor Howie Morales told our KANW 89.1 FM radio audience that the election results show the polarization between New Mexico's cities and its rural areas has hardened. A former Silver City state Senator he pledge himself to trying to somehow bridge the divide that comes down to values and Trump. The unresolved presidential race put on the back burner rumors that Gov. MLG could get a spot in a Biden cabinet, making Morales Governor.

Analyst Payne said that the strong red showing in rural New Mexico reminded him of when the GOP used to be competitive statewide but he said they did that by also being competitive in the ABQ area. "Until they crack that nut and figure out how to diminish these landslide totals in ABQ and cease the intraparty infighting, they will remain in the wilderness," he opined. 

Thanks to all who tuned in to our radio broadcast and to our exceptionally well-informed panel. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020

 
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