New Mexico could be stuck in the covid rut for many more months, perhaps seven. That's the analysis of an ABQ bio stats expert of the state's new county-by county reopening plan that was greeted with an initial burst of optimism but is now confronting cold, hard reality. 

Asked about the assessment of Hubert Allen, a biostatistician who graduated from John Hopkins University that is compiling national Covid stats, Gov. Lujan Grisham at her Monday briefing neither affirmed or denied the findings but acknowledged the tough road ahead: 

Moving forward under the model means going from the Red Zone where virus cases are heavy to the Yellow Zone where they have moderated and permit more reopening of businesses and hopefully the public schools. Getting to the Green Zone where even fewer cases are recorded would still only allow a business to operate at 50 percent of capacity. But with today's restriction of 25% capacity that's looking like nirvana. 

The state is now allowing outdoor dining with 25 percent capacity but it seems like a cruel joke as temperatures this week plummeted to winter-like levels. The only thing eating outside are the penguins at the BioPark. 

Still, MLG has made a course correction from being one of the most restrictive states in the nation and is trying to alleviate the economic pain caused by the virus. The new reopening model is combined with a substantial relief package (over $300 million) that she developed and which won bipartisan approval at the recent special legislative session. None of it is good enough for her old nemesis, Steve Pearce, chairman of the NMGOP: 

Pearce will continue to remain a thorn in MLG's side as long as she stays here and doesn't head off to the Biden DC cabinet. He is standing for re-election for another two year term as GOP chairman next Monday and is expected to easily win. 

The gloomy question on the Fourth Floor these days is: “What would you rather have? A case of Covid or more Steve Pearce?”

State Senator John Arthur Smith quietly ended a 31 year run, tendering his resignation with just one month left to go in his term and with the Legislature's business over for the year. But the action resumes in January in a chamber no longer ruled by Smithsonian austerity hawks but a more moderate and younger group of senators. 

Smith, 78, also ceded his position as chairman of the powerful Legislative Finance Committee. Sen. Bobby Gonzales of Taos, another experienced fiscal pragmatist, replaces Smith whose senate resignation was confirmed by legislative staffers. 

A rare mystery in Santa Fe is who will replace Smith as chairman of the Senate Finance Committee which grew into one of the most powerful committees in state history under Smith's reign. "It really is up in the air," said a Senior Alligator roaming the Roundhouse corridors on a chilly fall day. 

The decision will be made by the next Senate President Pro Tem who is expected to be liberal Sen. Mimi Stewart who has won backing from the majority Dem Senate caucus.

Smith, a real estate appraiser from Deming, was self-taught in economics and budgets. We ribbed him for being from the "Deming School of Economics." He accumulated in-depth knowledge and that translated into power. First elected in 1988, Smith was often cited as the one lawmaker "who really understood the budget." His penchant for budget cutting earned him the moniker "Dr. No" and he wore it proudly. 

Smith's power grew with a robust New Mexican economy but when it started to give way he came under increased pressure to loosen the purse strings and switch to a more liberal stimulus stance. He resisted too long and progressives took him out in the June Democratic primary.

True to his values, Smith departs with the state's general fund surplus now at a towering 30 percent. That's over $2 billion for a $7 billion state budget. New senators will want to get more of that money out the door, especially if federal relief remains stalled. 

Smith will be remembered as getting it right most of the time but missing the turn as the state's financial status slowly diminished. His hard work, respect for his colleagues and the Senate, avoidance of ethical pitfalls and his mastery of political power will endure as his legacy. All of that will be studied intently by future students and hope-to-be players in the never ending drama of La Politica. 

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